So, not too many surprises last night. The Liberals got 6 seat less than our average projection, the PQ got 2 seats more, the ADQ 3 more and the QS 1 more. The Liberals got a couple points less in popular support, the PQ about a point more and the ADQ about a point more. The PVQ and QS were pretty close to our average projection.

POPULAR VOTE	PLQ	PQ	ADQ	QS	PVQ
Average Projection	44.2%	34.1%	15.0%	3.9%	2.5%
Unofficial Results	42.1%	35.2%	16.4%	3.8%	2.2%
Difference	-2.1%	+1.1%	+1.4%	-0.1%	-0.3%

SEAT COUNT	PLQ	PQ	ADQ	QS	PVQ
Average Projection	72	49	4	0	0
Unofficial Results	66	51	7	1	0
Difference	-6	+2	+3	+1	0

We made “calls” in 101 ridings, with 24 being too close to call. Of those 101 calls, we were correct in 99. The two incorrect calls were in Shefford, where ADQ Français Bonnardel bucked the trend to be the only ADQ to win outside of the Greater Quebec area, and in La Peltrie, where ADQ Eric Caire, a star ADQ deputy, also bucked the trend and held his seat. Thus, of the 24 too close to call, the model was correct in 15 and incorrect in 9.

Overall, our model’s average projection put the correct candidate ahead in 114 of 125 ridings, for an accuracy of 91.2%. Of the 11 incorrect, we did not make a call in 9 because it was too close to call.

I will be online starting at 8pm to comment on the results as they come in. There are surprises in every election; I expect this one to be no different (and given the surprises from 2007, who knows, maybe Quebeckers will give us plenty of surprises!). Feel free to post your comments below.

Note: my apologies, but the live-blog will be in my first language (english).

***

7:56
T minus 4 minutes. So exciting! It’s like Christmas for geeks.
Grab the popcorn and your beverage of choice, ’cause here we go…

8:01
First deputy elected leading is a Liberal, according to Radio-Canada… make that 2 Liberals.

8:07
Early results from Iles-de-la-Madeleine have Liberal Germain Chevarie leading (but only 3 of 49 polls reporting). Overall results so far: none elected, 10 PLQ leading, 3 PQ leading, 1 ADQ leading.

8:11
Overall vote share so far: PLQ 47.2%, PQ 34.9%, ADQ 13.7%, QS 2.9%, PVQ 1.1%. Only about 11,000 votes in so far, so it’s super early. I’ve gotta say, that CBC’s got the best results tracking… Still no one elected, but PLQ now with 20 leading, PQ 8, ADQ 2.

8:23
We have our first elected deputy! Yvon Marcoux in Vaudreuil. No surprise there.

8:31
PLQ Charlotte L’Ecuyer elected in Pontiac. No surprise. Also PLQ Monique Jerome-Forget in Marguerite-Bourgeoys. PQ Alexandre Cloutier in Lac-Saint-Jean. PQ Nicole Leger in Point-aux-Trembles.

8:31
Radio Canada declares Liberal majority government. From now on, I will just comment on any surprising results…

10:20
OK, I’m back. Sorry, I got entranced by the results coming in… so Amir Khadir wins in Mercier! I can’t say I’m all that surprised. My model put Turp a couple points ahead but you will noticed that I didn’t make a call in Mercier, because the projection range for Turp and Khadir overlapped, which means there is an equally likely chance of either candidate winning. So congrats to the Quebec Solidaire!

I bit surprised by the weakness of the Liberals in Laurion-Dorion and Crémazie. The latter was, of course, too close to call (and I didn’t), but I didn’t think the former would be as close (although the Liberals are currently holding a narrow lead).

No real surprise in Groulx, as it was too close to call. It could have gone either way.

I guess I’m also a bit surprised at the weakness of the Liberals in some of the Montérégie ridings such as Iberville, La Prairie, and Saint-Jean. All of these were too close to call (so I didn’t), but it appears the PQ was a bit stronger than the model suggested.

I thought Gaspé would be close, but the Liberal ran away with it, so that’s a surprise.

The ADQ held a bit more of their vote in Capital-National. I suspected they would, but I tried to let the model dictate. We saw this as well in the Federal election with the Conservatives. So the ADQ held Chauveau, which is not surprising. But I’m surprised they held La Peltrie, although they do have a strong candidate there. But they did lose their other ridings in the area.

Overall, the Liberals are a bit worse and the PQ and ADQ a bit better than the model suggested, but the difference is pretty small. The QS and PVQ vote is about on par. The net result is that the Liberals probably win a few seats less and the PQ a few seats more than the model suggested. But nothing too radical.

(en français)

final update (7 dec)
SEAT PROJECTIONS	download projections

LIBERAL	PQ	ADQ	GREEN	SOLIDAIRE	OTHERS
44.2%	34.1%	15.0%	2.5%	3.9%	0.3%
72	49	4	0	0	0
63 seats required for majority government

DemocraticSPACE projects that Premier Jean Charest’s Liberals will be re-elected in Monday’s Québec election. Whether they win a majority or a minority remains a question. There is some disagreement in the polls. CROP and Leger give the Liberals a 16- and 13-point lead, respectively, which would result in a Liberal majority. Angus Reid, however, gives the Liberals just a 6-point lead, which would result in a minority. As our methodology uses a weighted average of the poll data, our projections tend to split the difference between the extremes. As such, our average projection results in a Liberal victory in the 10-point range, which gives the Liberals a majority. However, our riding projections have a range of +/- 2% and about 20% of Québec’s 125 ridings are too close to call (i.e. the range of one candidate overlaps with the range of another candidate). Thus, we estimate there is a 2-in-3 chance that the Liberals will win a majority, and a 1-in-3 chance they will win a minority.

Our “average projection” closely resembles the 2003 National Assembly of Québec, but with the Liberals not quite as strong, and the PQ a bit stronger. DemocraticSPACE’s average projection gives the Liberals 72 seats (maximum range: 59-81 seats) and 44.2% support (range: 42-45%). The PQ average projection is 49 seats (maximum range: 39-59 seats) and 34.1% support (range: 33-36%). The ADQ average projection is 4 seats (maximum range: 3-7 seats) and 15.0% support (range: 13-16%). The Quebec Solidare average projection is 0 seats (maximum range: 0-1 seat) and 3.9% support (range: 2-5%). The Parti Vert average projection is 0 seats (no seats are within range) and 2.5% support (range: 1-4%).

REGIONAL ANALYSIS

	LIBERAL	PQ	ADQ	GREEN	SOLIDAIRE
MONTRÉAL OUEST	14	0	0	0	0
	67-71%	17-21%	1-5%	4-7%	2-5%
MONTRÉAL EST	7	7	0	0	0
	42-46%	36-39%	3-7%	2-5%	8-11%
LAVAL	5	0	0	0	0
	50-54%	30-33%	9-13%	1-4%	1-5%
LANAUDIÈRE / LAURENTIDES	2	12	0	0	0
	31-35%	40-43%	18-21%	1-5%	1-5%
MONTÉRÉGIE	11	10	0	0	0
	40-44%	35-38%	13-17%	1-5%	1-5%
MAURICIE / CENTRE-DU-QUÉBEC	4	4	0	0	0
	37-40%	34-38%	20-23%	0-3%	1-5%
OUTAOUAIS	5	0	0	0	0
	59-62%	24-28%	5-9%	1-5%	2-5%
ESTRIE	5	1	0	0	0
	45-49%	33-36%	11-14%	0-4%	2-6%
SAGUENAY / NORD-DU-QUÉBEC	0	8	0	0	0
	36-39%	47-50%	9-12%	0-2%	1-5%
ABITIBI / TÉMISCAMINGUE	2	1	0	0	0
	38-41%	40-44%	12-15%	0%	3-6%
BAS-SAINT-LAURENT / GASPÉSIE	3	4	1	0	0
	40-43%	37-40%	15-18%	0-2%	2-5%
CHAUDIÈRE / APPALACHES	5	0	3	0	0
	38-41%	22-25%	32-36%	0-2%	1-4%
CAPITALE-NATIONALE	9	2	0	0	0
	38-42%	29-32%	23-26%	0-2%	2-5%

COMMENTARY

MONTRÉAL OUEST
The West Island is the safest area for any party in the province. The Liberals simply dominate here. Average Projection: PLQ 67-71% (14 seats), PQ 17-21% (0), PVQ 4-7% (0), QS 2-5% (0), ADQ 1-5%.

MONTRÉAL EST
The North End tends to go Liberal, while the East End tend to go PQ. Only two ridings are battlegrounds: CRÉMAZIE, between Liberal challenger Martin Cossette and PQ incumbent Lisette Lapointe and MERCIER, where PQ incumbent Daniel Turp is facing a strong challenge from Quebec Solidaire co-leader Amir Khadir. While Mercier is leaning towards Turp, there is a possibility that Khadir could stage an upset, if other party supporter vote strategically. Average Projection: PLQ 42-46% (7 seats), PQ 36-39% (7), QS 8-11% (0), ADQ 3-7% (0), PVQ 2-5% (0).

LAVAL
Laval remains a Liberal stronghold. Average Projection: PLQ 50-54% (5 seats), PQ 30-33% (0), ADQ 9-13% (0), QS 1-5% (0), PVQ 1-4% (0).

LANAUDIÈRE / LAURENTIDES
In 2007, this region saw the ADQ win many seats by narrow margins, taking 10 seats total. All but one of these seats are projected to revert back to the PQ. Only one riding, GROULX, is a battleground — between Liberal Monique Laurin and PQ René Gauvreau. This race is too close to call. Average Projection: PQ 40-43% (12 seats), PLQ 31-35% (2), ADQ 18-21% (0), QS 1-5% (0), PVQ 1-5% (0).

MONTÉRÉGIE
The Montérégie is a true battleground with fully one-third of its 21 ridings too close to call. While the ADQ made big gains here in 2007, they are projected to lose all 8 of their seats. Of the battleground ridings, CHAMBLY, MARGUERITE-D’YOUVILLE, SAINT-HYACINTHE, and VACHON are leaning towards the PQ, while IBERVILLE, LA PRAIRIE, and SAINT-JEAN are leaning towards the Liberals. All, however, are too close to call. Average Projection: PLQ 40-44% (11 seats), PQ 35-38% (10), ADQ 13-17% (0), QS 1-5% (0), PVQ 1-5% (0).

MAURICIE / CENTRE-DU-QUÉBEC
This is another region where the ADQ did well in 2007, winning 7 of 8 ridings, but where we project they will lose all their seats. While this region has many competitive races, only two are too close to call: NICOLET-YAMASKA, which is leaning towards PQ Jean-Martin Aussant over PLQ Mario Landry, and TROIS-RIVIÈRES, which is leaning towards PLQ Danielle St-Amand over PQ Yves St-Pierre (but which could go either way). Average Projection: PLQ 37-40% (4 seats), PQ 34-38% (4), ADQ 20-23% (0), QS 1-5% (0), PVQ 0-3% (0).

OUTAOUAIS
The Outaouais remains a Liberal stronghold. Average Projection: PLQ 59-62% (5 seats), PQ 24-28% (0), ADQ 5-9% (0), QS 2-5% (0), PVQ 1-5% (0).

ESTRIE
Liberals are favoured to win all but one riding in the Eastern Townships. Average Projection: PLQ 45-49% (5 seats), PQ 33-36% (1), ADQ 11-14% (0), QS 2-6% (0), PVQ 0-4% (0).

SAGUENAY / NORD-DU-QUÉBEC
Northern Quebec, Côte-Nord and the Saquenay/Lac-Saint-Jean regions remain strong for the PQ. There are 3 battleground ridings in the region, and all are leaning towards the PQ (but remain close): DUBUC is hard to read, with conflicting reports that show PLQ Serge Simard and PQ incumbent André Michaud leading; JONQUIÈRE, where PLQ Martine Girard and PQ incumbent Sylvain Gaudreault are in a close battle; and ROBERVAL, where PQ incumbent Denis Trottier is facing a challenge from PLQ Georges Simard. Average Projection: PQ 47-50% (8 seats), 36-39% (0), ADQ 9-12% (0), QS 1-5% (0), PVQ 0-2% (0).

ABITIBI / TÉMISCAMINGUE
Two of three ridings in this region are battlegrounds: ABITIBI-EST, a re-match between former PLQ deputy Pierre Corbeil and PQ incumbent Alexis Wawanoloath; and ROUYN-NORANDA-TÉMISCAMINGUE, also a re-match between former PLQ deputy Daniel Bernard over PLQ incumbent Johanne Morasse. Both remain too close to call. Average Projection: PQ 40-44% (1 seat), PLQ 38-41% (2), ADQ 12-15% (0), QS 3-6% (0), PVQ 0% (0).

BAS-SAINT-LAURENT / GASPÉSIE
This region has two battleground ridings: GASPÉ, where previous PLQ candidate Georges Mamelot is challenging PQ newcomer Annie Chouinard; and a wild-card race in ÎLES-DE-LA-MADELEINE, where the retirement of Maxime Arseneau has left a wide-open race between PLQ Germain Chevarie and PQ Jeannine Richard. As people on the Islands vote more by person than party, this race is hard to read. Average Projection: PLQ 40-43% (3 seats), PQ 37-40% (4), 15-18% (1), QS 2-5% (0), PVQ 0-2% (0).

CHAUDIÈRE / APPALACHES
This region remains a stronghold for the ADQ, however, we project the Liberals will pick-up 3 of the ADQ’s 7 seats. There are 3 battlegrounds: BEAUCE-SUD, where PLQ challenger Robert Dutil appears poised to upset ADQ incumbent Claude Morin; LÉVIS, which could be a 3-way race between PLQ Gilles Lehouillier, PQ Jimmy Grenier, and ADQ incumbent Christian Lévesque; and LOTBINIÈRE, which is leaning towards ADQ incumbent Sylvie Roy but with a strong challenge from PLQ Julie Champagne. Average Projection: PLQ 38-41% (5 seats), ADQ 32-36% (3), PQ 22-25% (0), QS 1-4% (0), PVQ 0-2% (0).

CAPITALE-NATIONALE
The Québec City region is often a bellwether region, typically following the provincial trend. In 2007, the ADQ won 7 seats, but this time, it figures to go largely PLQ. Two ridings are battlegrounds: when ADQ incumbent Gilles Taillon decided to run in the Outaouais, it left a wide-open race between ADQ necomer Gerard Deltell and former PLQ deputy Sarah Perreault in the suburban riding of CHAUVEAU; the other close race is in MONTMORENCY, where ADQ incumbent Hubert Benoît has a tough fight against former PLQ deputy Raymond Bernier. Average Projection: PLQ 38-42% (9 seats), PQ 29-32% (2), ADQ 23-26% (0), QS 2-5% (0), PVQ 0-2% (0).

On RDI, Simon Durivage is doing his daily interview with a Liberal, an Adéquiste, and a Péquiste. Apparently, Jean Charest is starting to talk about Pauline Marois and her sovereigntism. The poor Pierre Moreau (PLQ) had to put forward this message. Durivage asked quite simply “did we not know that Pauline Marois was a sovereigntist?” Moreau had trouble answering that coherently. And then this exchange happened (translated and paraphrased):

Moreau: Pauline Marois has shown that because she wants to separate Quebec and is beholden to the sovereigntists of her party, she can only be the Premier of sovereigntists, not all Quebecers.

Durivage: That doesn’t really make sense, because then Jean Charest can’t be the Premier of all Quebecers, just federalists.

Moreau: No, Jean Charest is the Premier of all Quebecers.

Yeah, that makes sense.

Cross-posted to Sovereignty en Anglais.

What form of electoral reform would be best for Québec? While mixed-member proportional (MMP) has been studied, another possibility is single transferable vote (STV), the system recommended for British Columbia. This system uses ranked ballots within fairly small regions. Given Québec’s many unique regions, it may be a better option than MMP. It has the advantage of not having wasted votes, is candidate-focused (not party-focused), doesn’t require any changes to the size of the National Assembly, keeps representation local, and all members are elected the same way. It is, however, not as advantageous to smaller parties as pure proportional representation or MMP, but it is still far more advantageous than the current first-past-the-post system.

Below is one model — 25 multi-member districts ranging from 2 to 7 députés, with an average of 5 députés. There would need to be 2 singles — Ungava and Îles-de-la-Madeleine — because they have very low populations (thus would be dominated by other areas if included in Abitibi or Gaspésie, respectively).

An estimate (and only an estimate) of the 2007 election results under this STV model shows a similar result to the actual results, but with much better region balance. My estimate gives the PLQ 47 députés, the ADQ 39 députés, the PQ 37 députés and one each for the PVQ and Québec Solidaire.

Feel free to discuss.

***

1 MONTRÉAL CENTRE-VILLE (7)
D’ARCY McGEE
MONT-ROYAL
NOTRE-DAME-DE-GRÂCE
OUTREMONT
SAINT-HENRI-SAINTE-ANNE
VERDUN
WESTMOUNT-SAINT-LOUIS

députés: PLQ 5, PQ 1, PVQ 1

2 MONTRÉAL WEST ISLAND (7)
ACADIE
JACQUES-CARTIER
MARGUERITE-BOURGEOYS
MARQUETTE
NELLIGAN
ROBERT BALDWIN
SAINT-LAURENT

députés: PLQ 5, ADQ 1, PQ 1

3 NORD-DU-MONTRÉAL (7)
ANJOU
BOURASSA-SAUVÉ
CRÉMAZIE
JEANNE-MANCE-VIGER
LAFONTAINE
LAURIER-DORION
VIAU

députés: PLQ 5, PQ 1, ADQ 1

4 EST-DU-MONTRÉAL (7)
BOURGET
GOUIN
HOCHELAGA-MAISONNEUVE
MERCIER
POINTE-AUX-TREMBLES
ROSEMONT
SAINTE-MARIE-SAINT-JACQUES

députés: PQ 3, PLQ 2, ADQ 1, QS 1

5 LAVAL (5)
CHOMEDEY
FABRE
LAVAL-DES-RAPIDES
MILLES-ÎLES
VIMONT

députés: PLQ 2, ADQ 2, PQ 1

6 OUTAOUAIS (5)
CHAPLEAU
GATINEAU
HULL
PAPINEAU
PONTIAC

députés: PLQ 3, PQ 1, ADQ 1

7 LAURENTIDES (4)
ARGENTEUIL
BERTRAND
LABELLE
PRÉVOST

députés: PQ 2, ADQ 1, PLQ 1

8 LANAUDIÈRE (5)
BERTHIER
JOLIETTE
L’ASSOMPTION
MASSON
ROUSSEAU

députés: PQ 2, ADQ 1, PLQ 1

9 COURONNE-NORD (5)
BLAINVILLE
DEUX-MONTAGNES
GROULX
MIRABEL
TERREBONNE

députés: ADQ 2, PQ 2, PLQ 1

10 ABITIBI (3)
ABITIBI-EST
ABITIBI-OUEST
ROUYN-NORANDA-TÉMISCAMINGUE

députés: PQ 1, PLQ 1, ADQ 1

11 LONGUEUIL (5)
LA PINIÈRE
LAPORTE
MARIE-VICTORIN
TAILLON
VACHON

députés: PLQ 2, PQ 2, ADQ 1

12 BAS-RICHELIEU (5)
BORDUAS
MARGUERITE-D’YOUVILLE
RICHELIEU
SAINT-HYACINTHE
VERCHÈRES

députés: PQ 2, ADQ 2, PLQ 1

13 COURONNE-SUD (5)
BEAUHARNOIS
CHÂTEAUGUAY
LA PRAIRIE
SOULANGES
VAUDREUIL

députés: PLQ 2, ADQ 2, PQ 1

14 MONTÉRÉGIE (5)
CHAMBLY
HUNTINGDON
IBERVILLE
SAINT-JEAN
SHEFFORD

députés: ADQ 3, PQ 1, PLQ 1

15 ESTRIE (5)
BROME-MISSISQUOI
MÉGANTIC-COMPTON
ORFORD
SAINT-FRANÇOIS
SHERBROOKE

députés: PLQ 2, ADQ 2, PQ 1

16 CENTRE-DU-QUÉBEC (5)
ARTHABASKA
DRUMMOND
JOHNSON
NICOLET-YAMASKA
RICHMOND

députés: ADQ 2, PLQ 2, PQ 1

17 MAURICIE (5)
CHAMPLAIN
LAVIOLETTE
MASKINONGÉ
SAINT-MAURICE
TROIS-RIVIÈRES

députés: ADQ 2, PLQ 2, PQ 1

18 CAPITALE-NATIONALE (5)
CHAUVEAU
CHARLEVOIX
LA PELTRIE
MONTMORENCY
PORTNEUF

députés: ADQ 3, PLQ 1, PQ 1

19 QUÉBEC CENTRE-VILLE (6)
CHARLESBOURG
JEAN-LESAGE
JEAN-TALON
LOUIS-HÉBERT
TASCHEREAU
VANIER

députés: ADQ 3, PLQ 2, PQ 1

20 CHAUDIÈRE (4)
BELLECHASSE
CHUTES-DE-LA-CHAUDIÈRE
LÉVIS
LOTBINIÈRE

députés: ADQ 3, PLQ 1

21 APPALACHES (3)
BEAUCE-NORD
BEAUCE-SUD
FRONTENAC

députés: ADQ 2, PLQ 1

22 BAS-SAINT-LAURENT (4)
KAMOURASKA-TÉMISCOUATA
MONTMAGNY-L’ISLET
RIMOUSKI
RIVIÈRE-DU-LOUP

députés: ADQ 2, PLQ 1, PQ 1

23 GASPÉSIE (4)
BONAVENTURE
GASPÉ
MATANE
MATAPÉDIA

députés: PLQ 2, PQ 2

24 CÔTE-NORD (2)
DUPLESSIS
RENÉ-LÉVESQUE

députés: PQ 2

25 SAGUENAY (5)
CHICOUTIMI
DUBUC
JONQUIÈRE
LAC-SAINT-JEAN
ROBERVAL

députés: PLQ 2, PQ 2, ADQ 1

26 UNGAVA (1)
députés: PQ 1

27 ÎLES-DE-LA-MADELEINE (1)
députés: PQ 1

Mario Dumont of the Action démocratique du Québec has apologised for the unimpressive performance of the ADQ as the official opposition, saying he takes responsibility for it and admitting that he may have not been prepared to go from 5 to 41 MNAs.

Dumont made this apology as a campaign stop, not as some interview slip. It was calculated. It may or may not work. Quebecers tend to like their leaders flawed, and this sort of sincerity will at the very least stop the ADQ’s bleeding of support.

But it may not be enough to gain support to get back to, at least, 20%. On the one hand, it gives Dumont a sort of re-boot and a chance to start anew. On the other hand, he is admitting he wasn’t ready in 2007 and so one has to wonder whether he is ready now in 2008.

It will be easy for Jean Charest and Pauline Marois to attack Dumont now that he has admitted he wasn’t up to the task.

The next poll (which, at this rate, will come in two weeks!) will be very telling.

Cross-posted to Sovereignty en Anglais.

I was driving through part of Hull today, and you can hardly tell there is an election going on. There were very few electoral signs, and the only ones I did see were for the Liberals and Québec solidaire.

If our voting options are between Maryse Gaudreault and Bill Clennett, I worry.

Cross-posted to Sovereignty en Anglais.