So, not too many surprises last night. The Liberals got 6 seat less than our average projection, the PQ got 2 seats more, the ADQ 3 more and the QS 1 more. The Liberals got a couple points less in popular support, the PQ about a point more and the ADQ about a point more. The PVQ and QS were pretty close to our average projection.

POPULAR VOTE PLQ PQ ADQ QS PVQ
Average Projection 44.2% 34.1% 15.0% 3.9% 2.5%
Unofficial Results 42.1% 35.2% 16.4% 3.8% 2.2%
Difference -2.1% +1.1% +1.4% -0.1% -0.3%

SEAT COUNT PLQ PQ ADQ QS PVQ
Average Projection 72 49 4 0 0
Unofficial Results 66 51 7 1 0
Difference -6 +2 +3 +1 0

We made “calls” in 101 ridings, with 24 being too close to call. Of those 101 calls, we were correct in 99. The two incorrect calls were in Shefford, where ADQ Français Bonnardel bucked the trend to be the only ADQ to win outside of the Greater Quebec area, and in La Peltrie, where ADQ Eric Caire, a star ADQ deputy, also bucked the trend and held his seat. Thus, of the 24 too close to call, the model was correct in 15 and incorrect in 9.

Overall, our model’s average projection put the correct candidate ahead in 114 of 125 ridings, for an accuracy of 91.2%. Of the 11 incorrect, we did not make a call in 9 because it was too close to call.