(en français)

LIBERAL	PQ	ADQ	GREEN	SOLIDAIRE	OTHERS
44.2%	34.1%	15.0%	2.5%	3.9%	0.3%
72	49	4	0	0	0
63 seats required for majority government

DemocraticSPACE projects that Premier Jean Charest’s Liberals will be re-elected in Monday’s Québec election. Whether they win a majority or a minority remains a question. There is some disagreement in the polls. CROP and Leger give the Liberals a 16- and 13-point lead, respectively, which would result in a Liberal majority. Angus Reid, however, gives the Liberals just a 6-point lead, which would result in a minority. As our methodology uses a weighted average of the poll data, our projections tend to split the difference between the extremes. As such, our average projection results in a Liberal victory in the 10-point range, which gives the Liberals a majority. However, our riding projections have a range of +/- 2% and about 20% of Québec’s 125 ridings are too close to call (i.e. the range of one candidate overlaps with the range of another candidate). Thus, we estimate there is a 2-in-3 chance that the Liberals will win a majority, and a 1-in-3 chance they will win a minority.

Our “average projection” closely resembles the 2003 National Assembly of Québec, but with the Liberals not quite as strong, and the PQ a bit stronger. DemocraticSPACE’s average projection gives the Liberals 72 seats (maximum range: 59-81 seats) and 44.2% support (range: 42-45%). The PQ average projection is 49 seats (maximum range: 39-59 seats) and 34.1% support (range: 33-36%). The ADQ average projection is 4 seats (maximum range: 3-7 seats) and 15.0% support (range: 13-16%). The Quebec Solidare average projection is 0 seats (maximum range: 0-1 seat) and 3.9% support (range: 2-5%). The Parti Vert average projection is 0 seats (no seats are within range) and 2.5% support (range: 1-4%).

REGIONAL ANALYSIS

COMMENTARY

MONTRÉAL OUEST
The West Island is the safest area for any party in the province. The Liberals simply dominate here. Average Projection: PLQ 67-71% (14 seats), PQ 17-21% (0), PVQ 4-7% (0), QS 2-5% (0), ADQ 1-5%.

MONTRÉAL EST
The North End tends to go Liberal, while the East End tend to go PQ. Only two ridings are battlegrounds: CRÉMAZIE, between Liberal challenger Martin Cossette and PQ incumbent Lisette Lapointe and MERCIER, where PQ incumbent Daniel Turp is facing a strong challenge from Quebec Solidaire co-leader Amir Khadir. While Mercier is leaning towards Turp, there is a possibility that Khadir could stage an upset, if other party supporter vote strategically. Average Projection: PLQ 42-46% (7 seats), PQ 36-39% (7), QS 8-11% (0), ADQ 3-7% (0), PVQ 2-5% (0).

LAVAL
Laval remains a Liberal stronghold. Average Projection: PLQ 50-54% (5 seats), PQ 30-33% (0), ADQ 9-13% (0), QS 1-5% (0), PVQ 1-4% (0).

LANAUDIÈRE / LAURENTIDES
In 2007, this region saw the ADQ win many seats by narrow margins, taking 10 seats total. All but one of these seats are projected to revert back to the PQ. Only one riding, GROULX, is a battleground — between Liberal Monique Laurin and PQ René Gauvreau. This race is too close to call. Average Projection: PQ 40-43% (12 seats), PLQ 31-35% (2), ADQ 18-21% (0), QS 1-5% (0), PVQ 1-5% (0).

MONTÉRÉGIE
The Montérégie is a true battleground with fully one-third of its 21 ridings too close to call. While the ADQ made big gains here in 2007, they are projected to lose all 8 of their seats. Of the battleground ridings, CHAMBLY, MARGUERITE-D’YOUVILLE, SAINT-HYACINTHE, and VACHON are leaning towards the PQ, while IBERVILLE, LA PRAIRIE, and SAINT-JEAN are leaning towards the Liberals. All, however, are too close to call. Average Projection: PLQ 40-44% (11 seats), PQ 35-38% (10), ADQ 13-17% (0), QS 1-5% (0), PVQ 1-5% (0).

MAURICIE / CENTRE-DU-QUÉBEC
This is another region where the ADQ did well in 2007, winning 7 of 8 ridings, but where we project they will lose all their seats. While this region has many competitive races, only two are too close to call: NICOLET-YAMASKA, which is leaning towards PQ Jean-Martin Aussant over PLQ Mario Landry, and TROIS-RIVIÈRES, which is leaning towards PLQ Danielle St-Amand over PQ Yves St-Pierre (but which could go either way). Average Projection: PLQ 37-40% (4 seats), PQ 34-38% (4), ADQ 20-23% (0), QS 1-5% (0), PVQ 0-3% (0).

OUTAOUAIS
The Outaouais remains a Liberal stronghold. Average Projection: PLQ 59-62% (5 seats), PQ 24-28% (0), ADQ 5-9% (0), QS 2-5% (0), PVQ 1-5% (0).

ESTRIE
Liberals are favoured to win all but one riding in the Eastern Townships. Average Projection: PLQ 45-49% (5 seats), PQ 33-36% (1), ADQ 11-14% (0), QS 2-6% (0), PVQ 0-4% (0).

SAGUENAY / NORD-DU-QUÉBEC
Northern Quebec, Côte-Nord and the Saquenay/Lac-Saint-Jean regions remain strong for the PQ. There are 3 battleground ridings in the region, and all are leaning towards the PQ (but remain close): DUBUC is hard to read, with conflicting reports that show PLQ Serge Simard and PQ incumbent André Michaud leading; JONQUIÈRE, where PLQ Martine Girard and PQ incumbent Sylvain Gaudreault are in a close battle; and ROBERVAL, where PQ incumbent Denis Trottier is facing a challenge from PLQ Georges Simard. Average Projection: PQ 47-50% (8 seats), 36-39% (0), ADQ 9-12% (0), QS 1-5% (0), PVQ 0-2% (0).

ABITIBI / TÉMISCAMINGUE
Two of three ridings in this region are battlegrounds: ABITIBI-EST, a re-match between former PLQ deputy Pierre Corbeil and PQ incumbent Alexis Wawanoloath; and ROUYN-NORANDA-TÉMISCAMINGUE, also a re-match between former PLQ deputy Daniel Bernard over PLQ incumbent Johanne Morasse. Both remain too close to call. Average Projection: PQ 40-44% (1 seat), PLQ 38-41% (2), ADQ 12-15% (0), QS 3-6% (0), PVQ 0% (0).

BAS-SAINT-LAURENT / GASPÉSIE
This region has two battleground ridings: GASPÉ, where previous PLQ candidate Georges Mamelot is challenging PQ newcomer Annie Chouinard; and a wild-card race in ÎLES-DE-LA-MADELEINE, where the retirement of Maxime Arseneau has left a wide-open race between PLQ Germain Chevarie and PQ Jeannine Richard. As people on the Islands vote more by person than party, this race is hard to read. Average Projection: PLQ 40-43% (3 seats), PQ 37-40% (4), 15-18% (1), QS 2-5% (0), PVQ 0-2% (0).

CHAUDIÈRE / APPALACHES
This region remains a stronghold for the ADQ, however, we project the Liberals will pick-up 3 of the ADQ’s 7 seats. There are 3 battlegrounds: BEAUCE-SUD, where PLQ challenger Robert Dutil appears poised to upset ADQ incumbent Claude Morin; LÉVIS, which could be a 3-way race between PLQ Gilles Lehouillier, PQ Jimmy Grenier, and ADQ incumbent Christian Lévesque; and LOTBINIÈRE, which is leaning towards ADQ incumbent Sylvie Roy but with a strong challenge from PLQ Julie Champagne. Average Projection: PLQ 38-41% (5 seats), ADQ 32-36% (3), PQ 22-25% (0), QS 1-4% (0), PVQ 0-2% (0).

CAPITALE-NATIONALE
The Québec City region is often a bellwether region, typically following the provincial trend. In 2007, the ADQ won 7 seats, but this time, it figures to go largely PLQ. Two ridings are battlegrounds: when ADQ incumbent Gilles Taillon decided to run in the Outaouais, it left a wide-open race between ADQ necomer Gerard Deltell and former PLQ deputy Sarah Perreault in the suburban riding of CHAUVEAU; the other close race is in MONTMORENCY, where ADQ incumbent Hubert Benoît has a tough fight against former PLQ deputy Raymond Bernier. Average Projection: PLQ 38-42% (9 seats), PQ 29-32% (2), ADQ 23-26% (0), QS 2-5% (0), PVQ 0-2% (0).

Les militants de Québec solidaire sont partout sur le terrain. Le pointage bas son plein et le porte-à-porte ne fût pas en reste durant cette campagne. Les appuis de personnalités publiques et d’artistes se multiplient également. Rien n’est encore joué mais la circonscription de Mercier a de réelles chance de devenir orange ce 8 décembre. Des rumeurs circulent qu’Amir Khadir serait en avance, et ce selon des prédictions péquistes.

S’il se passe seulement une chose motivante durant cette élection morne et triste où le taux de participation pourrait s’avérer mortellement bas pour la flamme démocratique québécoise. Ce pourrait être l’élection d’un premier solidaire à l’assemblée nationale. Le Québec a besoin de cette force de gauche pour oser parler de sujets trop souvent évités à l’assemblée. Des sujets comme l’environnement, la répartition de la richesse, la justice sociale, la main mise des multinationales sur la vie des gens ordinaires, etc.

J’espère qu’enfin ce moment est arrivé et je crois sincèrement que c’est ce que nous avons besoin en cette période de crise économique, d’un solidaire parmi les éluEs, d’un Québec plus solidaire.