GENERAL THOUGHTS…

That our “average” seat projection shows the Conservatives sitting exactly on the cusp of a majority says much about the uncertain nature of this election. Three outcomes are possible, the first two probably equally likely, and the last a more distant possibility:

(1) Conservative majority
Our projections tend to be higher than most for the Conservatives; we put the chances of a CPC majority at 50/50. Why? Conservatives are motivated — they are on the cusp of a majority, which should drive CPC turnout. The CPC also has easily the best GOTV (get-out-the-vote) operation — they have the most identified supporters, the most money and the most people on the ground. That means a very effective ground campaign, which can be a deciding factor in closely contested races. Their supporters also tend to be older — a demographic group that votes at higher rates. While the NDP will benefit from higher turnout among young voters, we’ve also witnessed higher-than-usual support for the CPC among the 18-24 group this year, so an increase in youth turnout may not yield a decided advantage for the NDP. The Conservative message of voter fatigue with frequent elections could resonate, as could stoking fears of what an NDP-led coalition might mean (particularly for Ontario voters). And there is often (but not always) a “fallback” effect for the incumbent party, as voters make last-minute decisions.

(2) Conservative minority; NDP opposition
We are confident that the NDP will be the #2 party, unless their purported support in Québec turns out to be a mirage. Even still, the dramatic drop-off in Liberal support (especially in Ontario) could give the NDP official opposition status, even with a less dramatic haul in Québec. There is a good chance that the CPC will fall just short of a majority unless their GOTV operation cannot turn out supporters in closely contested races, or if stategic voting is more of a factor than it has been in the past. If the CPC cannot take battleground university towns in Ontario and the Liberals are able to activate their base of supporters and hold their GTA ridings and keep the CPC out of Toronto, then the CPC could end up in the 140s in seats — more or less where they have currently. This outcome would result in the NDP as official opposition, although ironically it could leave the Liberals, now playing third fiddle, holding the balance of power should they decide to support the Conservatives.

(3) Diminished CPC minority; possible coaltion?
We think this scenario is least likely, but it’s possible that the NDP could virtually sweep the province of Québec, steal seats from the CPC and stage a few upsets in Atlantic Canada and B.C., giving them 100+ seats and a popular vote very near to the Conservatives. If so, they could potentially make a case to the Governor General that they could form a more stable “coalition” (whether formal or ad-hoc) with the Liberals (although Michael Ignatieff has technically ruled this out). That said, the CPC needs only 12 seats to get a majority and, notwithstanding broader shifts in support, they have a very targeted strategy to win very particular ridings. It’s entirely possible they could pick up the seats they need with a modest to no overall change in support. Moreover, the dramatic rise of the NDP has overwhelmingly been at the expense of the Bloc in Quebec, which inflates their national vote totals to appear competitive with the CPC, but with a lot of inefficient votes in rural ridings that they cannot win. The CPC may lose a half-dozen seats to the NDP in the west, but we anticipate the CPC will make up those seats and more due to the fall of the Liberals in Ontario, which could mitigate the impact that the “orange crush” has.

REGIONAL BREAKDOWN…

ONTARIO

As is always the case, Ontario is the key for the Conservatives. There are a lot of seats in play in the province. It is entirely possible that the Liberals will be reduced to 20 or so seats in Toronto and the GTA, with a unbroken blue swath running throughout the rest of Southern Ontario. Only a few university towns stand in their way — Kingston, Guelph, London North Centre. We don’t anticipate much change in the North, with the possible exception of Nipissing. Beyond the university ridings, the other key battleground is, of course, the GTA, where the Liberals will attempt to hold their ridings in Brampton, Mississauga, Ajax and York Region. Given the downward trend for the Liberals, they might have a harder time getting their supporters motivated to the polls, and they can no longer simply count on immigrant votes as they once could in the past. We’re anticipating many GTA seats will turn blue this time out. Even once-strong Liberal ridings in the City of Toronto could change hands — a few in North Toronto to the Conservatives and a couple in the core to the NDP. There will be a good amount of support for Helena Guergis in Simcoe-Grey, but we think the CPC party vote is too strong. While two Kitchener ridings were very close last time, the fall of the Liberals makes them more likely to stay CPC.

Strongly contested ridings or possible seat changes (21):
Nipissing-Timiskaming, Kingston & the Islands, Guelph, Essex, London North Centre, Ajax-Pickering, Bramalea-Gore-Malton, Brampton-Springdale, Brampton West, Mississauga South, Mississauga-Streetsville, Oshawa, Richmond Hill, Beaches-East York, Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Parkdale-High Park, York Centre, York South-Weston. Sault Ste. Marie is close but we think leans NDP. Kenora is also close but leans CPC. The drop-off of the Liberals makes strongholds like Ottawa South and Ottawa-Vanier closer, but we expect the incumbents to hold them.

2008 seat count: C51 N17 L38
2011 DS range: C58-69 N18-23 L16-25

QUEBEC

All bets are off in La Belle Province. It could be feast or famine for the NDP across Quebec, depending on how their rise splits regionally. We anticipate the strongest swings towards the NDP in Quebec City area (Capitale-Nationale), the Eastern Townships (L’Estrie), the Montérégie, the Outaouais, and of course on the Island of Montréal. We have to believe that the Bloc can hold seats in Central Quebec, Lanaudière, the Laurentians, and Cote-Nord, but even these seats could be in play depending on the strength of the orange wave. Even traditional Liberal seats in Montréal and Conservative seats in Appalaches are in jeopardy. The Liberals will not doubt be reduced to their base support in the West Island and a couple allophone ridings in North Montréal. A key riding to watch will be Gaspésie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine, as it tends to report first in Québec — if it goes NDP, we could be looking at an orange wave.

Strongly contested or possible seat changes (60):
literally 60 of QC’s 75 seats are either projected or have the potential to change hands. Among the most likely to flip to the NDP are: Abitibi-Baie James, Beauport, Charlesbourg, Louis-Hebert, Québec, Brome, Compton, Drummond, Shefford, Brossard, Chåteauguay, Longueuil, Saint-Bruno, Saint-Lambert, Vaudreuil, Gatineau, Hull-Alymer, Pontiac, Rivière-des-Mille-Iles, Ahuntic, Alfred-Pellan, Hochelaga, Jeanne-Le Ber, Lasalle, Laval, Westmount.

2008 seat count: B49 C10 N1 L14 O1
2011 DS range: B6-28 C2-8 N27-61 L6-11 O0-1

BRITISH COLUMBIA

It is likely that we will not know whether the Conservatives have a minority or majority until the results from B.C. start flowing in. We expect several close races between the CPC and NDP here — for example, if a riding like Kamloops turns orange, the NDP will do well in B.C. We also expect the Liberals to be reduced to a couple seats in Vancouver. The rise of the NDP, however, may not be as efficient as its supporters hope, as many CPC ridings in the Interior are held by wide margins. Interestingly, a CPC majority could come down to Saanich-Gulf Islands, where an influx of people, 2 years of full-time work, and several hundred thousand dollars have given GPC leader Elizabeth May a shot to win the Greens’ first seat. However, the desire of CPC supporters for a majority and the NDP wave mitigate strategic voting, making this riding too close to call.

Strongly contested or possible seat changes (8):
Esquimalt, Saanich, Van Island North, Kamloops, Newton-North Delta, Surrey North, Van Centre, Van South. Pitt Meadows could be close but leans CPC and Van Quadra is also close but leans LPC.

2008 seat count: C22 N9 L5
2011 DS range: C18-23 N10-15 L1-4

ALBERTA

Alberta is solidly behind the Conservatives, who regularly capture two-thirds of the votes. That said, there are 3 ridings of interest. The key battle is, of course, between the NDP’s Linda Duncan and the CPC’s Ryan Hastman. While a tight race, we’d be surprised if Duncan lost this riding.

Strongly contested or possible seat changes (1):
Edmonton-Strathcona. The NDP’s Ray Martin is running close in Edmonton East but it leans CPC and the CPC’s Tim Uppal is again battleing IND James Ford in Edmonton-Sherwood Park, but it also leans CPC.

2008 seat count: C27 N1
2011 DS range: C27-28 N0-1

PRAIRIES

The resurgence of the NDP puts a few seats back in play in Saskatchewan. The NDP’s Nettie Wiebe has a good shot of taking Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar and Palliser is also in play. The wildcard is Desnethé, where candidate tends to matter more than party affiliation. It’s anyone’s guess as to which way it will go. Ralph Goodale likely holds the lone seat in SK for the Liberals. Anita Neville will once again try to buck the trend and hold her Winnipeg South Centre seat; it will be close. While the Liberals Kevin Lamoureux took Winnipeg North from the NDP in a by-election, we expect the daughter of longtime NDP MP Bill Blaikie, Rebecca Blaikie, to re-take the seat for the NDP.

Strongly contested or possible seat changes (5):
Elmwood-Transcona, Winnipeg North, Winnipeg South Centre, Palliser, Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar. Desnethé could also be in play for the NDP.

2008 seat count: C22 N4 L2
2011 DS range: C20-24 N3-6 L1-2

ATLANTIC CANADA

A traditional Liberal stronghold, the region is slowly changing. Liberals Geoff Regan and Mike Savage are vulnerable in Halifax West and Dartmouth, the latter to ex-NDP provincial leader Robert Chisholm. South Shore-St. Margaret’s is also a bellwhether riding, as NDP Gordon Earle looks to take it from CPC Gerald Keddy; if it goes orange, it bodes well for the NDP. New Brunswick has been tracking more Conservative in recent years and the Liberals look to be vulnerable in Moncton, which Shawn Murphy narrowly held last time. Former Mulroney-era PC Bernard Valcourt could capture Madawaska from LPC Jean-Claude D’Amours, leaving the Liberals will just one seat in the province. The results in Newfoundland & Labrador last time were skewed by Danny Williams’ “Anyone But Harper” campaign. While there may be lingering effects, we expect the CPC’s Fabian Manning can re-take Avalon. The NDP’s Ryan Cleary, who narrowly lost in St. John’s South to Siobhan Coady last time, looks to be a good position to take this for the NDP. All four ridings in PEI are close race between the CPC and LPC, with long-time MP Wayne Easter looking the most vulnerable in Malpeque and no incumbent in Charlottetown makes it a toss up.

Strongly contested or possible seat change (10):
Dartmouth, Halifax West, South Shore-St. Margaret’s, Madawaska, Moncton, Avalon, Random-Burin, St. John’s South, Charlottetown, Malpeque.

2008 seat count: C11 N4 L17
2011 DS seat range: C11-17 N6-8 L8-14

THE NORTH

The North tends to be very candidate-dependent, rather than party-dependent. Stephen Harper’s emphasis on the North and Leona Aglukkaq’s cabinet post will very likely return her to parliament. Western Arctic is a race, as Dennis Bevington fends off challenges from the former NWT Premier Joe Handley (LPC) and the CPC’s Sandy Lee. The long-gun registry is being used by the CPC’s Ryan Leef as a wedge issue in Yukon against LPC incumbent Larry Bagnell.

Strongly contested or possible seat change (1):
Western Arctic. Yukon could also be in play.

2008 seat count: C1 N1 L1
2011 DS seat rnage: C1-2 N0-1 L1