The Globe and Mail highlighted 50 ridings to watch during this election. Not a bad list, although some of their ridings were closer in 2008 than they’ll be in 2011. Here is our list of ridings to watch (listed alphabetically by province) — the criteria for these selections is quite simple — these are the ridings where our current projections show a gap of 5 points or less. So while there are many interesting ridings to watch (for example, in Outremont where former Cabinet Mininster Martin Cauchon is challenging NDP Thomas Mulcair, or Saanich-Gulf Islands where Elizabeth May is challenging Cabinet Minister Gary Lunn), the following ridings are the 50 closest ridings at the moment…

1. AB Edmonton-Strathcona
The only genuine race in Alberta, the Conservatives lost this seat by virtue of a strong strategic voting effort by Liberals and Greens. It was an exception to the rule that strategic voting doesn’t work — in this case, likely because it is the only seat in the entire province that progressives can rally behind. It will be a battle again, but NDPer Linda Duncan has a strong following, which will need to turn out in force to hold the seat. A toss up, but we like Duncan’s chances of holding.

2. BC Burnaby-Douglas
Incumbent Bill Siksay is not running for the NDP, which opens the door for the Conservatives. Conservatives were close last time, falling short by only 1.6 points; a Conservative pick up here is possible.

3. BC Esquimalt-Juan De Fuca
While Saanich-Gulf Islands is the higher profile race, it is Keith Martin’s departure in this riding that offers the best chance of a Victoria-area seat change. The NDP is also challenging here, but the area trends Conservative federally.

4. BC North Vancouver
A perennial Conservative-Liberal battle where Andrew Saxton defeated incumbent Don Bell by over 5 points last time; the edge goes to the Conservatives again here.

5. BC Surrey North
A riding with a storied history, being the riding of the late Alliance-turned-independent Chuck Cadman, and now held by his wife Dona Cadman. Typically a battle between the Conservatives and NDP, it appears to favour the Conservatives again this time.

6. BC Vancouver Island North
Traditionally, John Duncan (CPC) and Catherine Bell (NDP) have battled back and forth for this riding, but Bell is not running this year. Given the strength of the Conservatives provincially, this one leans Tory.

7. BC Vancouver-Kingsway
This riding has gone back and forth between the Liberals and NDP. NDPer Don Davies won here by over 5 points last time, although a slight drop for the NDP in BC makes the re-match against Wendy Yuan worth watching. Incumbency could be a factor here, so it probably leans NDP.

8. BC Vancouver South
Former NDP Premier Ujjal Dosanjh was surprised to win his riding by just 20 votes last time over Conservative Wai Young. We expect the Liberals will put forward a stronger effort here this time, as they no doubt did not expect the Conservatives could close a 21 point gap last time. This one could go either way.

9. MB Elmwood-Transcona
With the retirement of long-time NDPer Bill Blaikie here in 2008, the riding was up for grabs. The NDP’s Jim Maloway held on against the Conservative ‘star’ candidate, former Winnipeg Jet (NHL) Thomas Steen, although it’s unclear if Steen inflated or held back the Tories here. The NDP is running below 2008 levels in the Prairies, but Maloway has the incumbency advantage and the fact that the Conservatives have not yet nominated their candidate suggests the NDP may be better placed here.

10. MB Winnipeg North
The Liberals surprised the NDP when Kevin Lamoureux beat Kevin Chief by 5.2 points in the by-election in November. The NDP’s Judy Wasylycia-Leis had previously dominated the riding, winning in 2006 by over 40 points (and the Liberals winning less than 10%). This time, however, the NDP has nominated Rebecca Blaikie, daughter of former NDP MP Bill Blaikie. With that name recognition and the backing of a general election GOTV operation, an NDP pick-up here seems likely.

11. MB Winnipeg South Centre
One should not discount the strength of Liberal Anita Neville to hold back the Conservatives — despite a 7-point drop by the Liberals in Manitoba from 2006 to 2008, Neville actually increased her vote share by 3 points. Despite the Tories are currently running a bit stronger this time, but the Liberals are about the same, which suggests Neville may well again hold off the challenge.

12. NB Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe
The Conservatives are running about 5 points ahead of 2008 in Atlantic Canada and narrowly lost Moncton last time. That Liberal Shawn Murphy dropped from a 17.6 to 3.3 point win from 2006 to 2008 suggests the momentum is with the Conservatives, as has been the case across New Brunswick. But the Tories haven’t yet nominated, so might have to play catch up. Could go either way.

13. NL Avalon
Danny Williams’ Anybody-But-Conservative campaign last time proved highly effective for the Liberals (moving from a 13-point Conservative win to a 10-point loss), but with Williams now retired, this riding could swing back into the Tory camp. But Scott Andrews now has an incumbency advantage and the Tories haven’t yet nominated a candidate. Leans Liberal.

14. NT Western Arctic
Conservative Brendan Bell ran a strong campaign here last time, closing a 22.6 point gap to 4.5 points, coming up about 500 votes short against NDP incumbent Dennis Bevington. Whether the Conservative challenge last time was a one-off or not remains to be seen. Bell is not re-running and the Conservatives nominated late, so could be playing catch up. A toss up.

15. NU Nunavut
The Conservatives have spent much political capital (to say nothing of actual capital) to hold this riding. That Leona Aglukkaq was given a Cabinet post bodes well for her re-election chances in Nunavut. Expect a Conservative hold.

16. ON Ajax-Pickering
Mark Holland withstood the Conservative challenge from Rick Johnson in 2008, despite being outspent by $25,000. This is a bellwether riding; if it falls to the Conservatives, it’s likely the Conservatives will pick up other GTA seats. Slight edge to the Liberals here.

17.ON Bramalea-Gore-Malton
This riding is a test of the Conservatives’ ability to draw votes traditionally thought to gravitate towards the Liberals. Gurbax Malhi has held this riding since 1993 but the Conservative vote has increased from 31% to 33% to 37% over the last 3 elections with 3 different candidates. The riding still leans Liberal, but if the Conservatives can capture this riding, they will capture many in the GTA.

18. ON Brampton-Springdale
Liberal Rudy Dhalla is vulnerable here. She’s seen her margin of victory diminish from 20 (2004) to 16 (2006) to just 1.7 points in 2008. Conservative Parm Gill has an edge here.

19. ON Brampton West
Andrew Kania won this seat by 231 votes for the Liberals in 2008, but given the rise of 4-5 points for the Conservatives in Ontario, the advantage here lies with the Tories.

20. ON Don Valley West
One of three ridings in Toronto that could potentially go Conservative, it is also the most affluent riding in the city. Newcomer Rob Oliphant won by 5 points in 2008 over John Carmichael. It is a re-match again this time. Unless the Liberal support firms up in the province, this seat could flip to the Conservatives.

21. ON Eglinton-Lawrence
Similar to its neighbour to the east (Don Valley West), long-time incumbent Joe Volpe won by 5 points in 2008 (down from a 19 point margin in 2006), and this time, it’s a re-match with Joe Oliver. Like DVW, it could go Conservative unless Liberal support solidifies.

22. ON Guelph
A bellwether riding. Narrowly won by Frank Valeriote the Liberals in 2008, it was the lone Liberal seat held in Midwestern Ontario. One wildcard could be the Greens; the Greens were 11 points behind Valeriote in 2008, but Mike Nagy is not re-offering and it figures to have fewer resources this time out. It’s leaning Conservative at the moment, but if the Greens weaken significantly, Valeriote could eke out a hold.

23. ON Kingston & the Islands
With perennial Speaker of the House Peter Milliken retiring, Kingston once again becomes a battleground — can K-town continue to be a dot of red in an otherwise sea of blue in Eastern Ontario? Ted Hsu and the Liberals will be in a tough battle to hold this seat.

24. ON Kitchener Centre
Among the biggest surprises in 2008 was the strength of the vote shift towards the Conservatives in the Kitchener-Waterloo region. In Kitchener Center, the Tories won by 339 votes. Liberal Karen Redman is challenging Stephen Woodworth again. Leans Conservative.

25. ON Kitchener-Waterloo
Like Kitchener Centre, a surprise victory for the Conservatives last time, winning by a scant 17 votes. Long-time Liberal Andrew Telegdi is challenging for the seat again, but like KC, given the rise of the Conservatives in the province, it leans Conservative.

26. ON London North Centre
Keep an eye on London, as it is a barometer of Liberal fortunes. By all rights, this seat should be Liberal, particularly with Glen Pearson as the incumbent. But if it falls, it would foreshadow the possibility of a Conservative majority.

27. ON Mississauga-Erindale
Erindale was the only one of 5 seats in Mississauga to go Conservative in 2008, which suggests it is a likely Conservative hold, but it remains competitive.

28. ON Mississauga South
Paul Szabo has single-handedly kept the Conservatives at bay in Mississauga South, given his door-to-door work, but this could be the election where he finally falls — less because of him and more because the Conservatives have made steady progress in Mississauga over the last couple cycles.

29. ON Mississauga-Streetsville
Streetsville is the hardest Mississauga riding to read. Bonnie Crosbie has the advantage of being a new incumbent, having defeated floor-crossing Wajid Khan last time. But whether or not, Khan’s result was artificially low because of his party change is hard to tell. Leans Liberal.

30. ON Oak Ridges-Markham
This become increasingly Conservative over the past few cycles. If the Liberals have any chance of gaining ground, they will have to take back riding like this. Advantage to the Conservatives here.

31. ON Sault Ste. Marie
This is a riding where long-term investment may start paying off for the Conservatives. The Tories fell just 2.7 points short in 2008; the rise of the Conservatives in Ontario and a stronger ground operation in the riding make this a toss up.

32. ON Sudbury
Sudbury could evolve into a rare 3-way race. NDP incumbent Glenn Thibeault holds the edge going into the election, but the Liberals and Conservatives are both running about 5 points back — within striking distance, depending on how the campaign unfolds.

33. ON Thunder Bay-Superior North
Another NDP-leaning riding that might come into play given the a 4-5 point rise for the Tories across the province. The advantage here goes to the NDP, but keep an eye on this one. If the Tories steal Superior North, they could be on their way to a majority.

34. ON Trinity-Spadina
NDP incumbent Olivia Chow has the advantage here, having won fairly comfortably by about 3,500 in 2008 but Christine Innes is back for the re-match again. Leans NDP.

35. ON Vaughan
Should be an interesting race to watch. Former OPP Commissioner Julian Fantino took this seat from the Liberals in the by-election, but this largely Italian riding has traditionally gone Liberal. With the that said, the previous Liberal incumbent Maurizio Bevilacqua had dropped from a 34-point margin in 2006 to 15-pts in 2008, so the riding was trending more Conservative even in the absence of a Tory star candidate. Fantino’s name recognition may be enough to hold this for the Tories.

36. ON Welland
One of the rare 3-way races in Ontario, and John Maloney is back again to fight for the Liberals, but this one appears to be tracking more as an NDP-Tory face-off this time. NDP’s Malcolm Allen won last time by just under 500 votes, and with the Tories gaining strength across the province, this one is looking like a Conservative pick-up.

37. ON York Centre
Ken Dryden could be in trouble here. He’s dropped from a 29-pt margin in 2004, to 23-pts in 2006 to just 5.6 pts in 2008. The Liberals do have the luxury of shifting resources into this riding from safer Toronto ridings, but the Conservatives, too, can concentrate on 3 ridings. Could go either way.

38. PE Egmont
Conservative Gail Shea took this seat by just 55 votes last time, but now has the advantage of incumbency and is Minister of Oceans and Fisheries. Given the higher poll numbers for the Conservatives across Atlantic Canada, this riding looks like a Conservative hold.

39. PE Malpeque
Long-time incumbent Wayne Easter has an uphill battle this time. He won by a little less than 1,000 votes last time, but the aforementioned rise of the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada makes this one a toss up.

40. QC Ahuntsic
A classic Bloc-Liberal battle in Montreal, this riding has been decided narrowly each of the last 3 elections — including by Bloquiste Maria Mourani by just 423 votes last time over former MP Eleni Bakopanos. With a new candidate this time, the Liberals will be hard-pressed to re-take it. Leans Bloc.

41. QC Beauport-Limoilou
One of several Conservative-Bloc battles in the Quebec City area, Tory Sylvie Boucher has won this riding by 1,000 to 2,000 votes the last two elections. Recent regions polls suggest the Bloc may be poised to take this one back, but at this point, it is simply too close to call.

42. QC Brome-Missisquoi
The retirement of Bloquiste Christian Ouellet opens the door for Liberal Denis Paradis, who first won this seat in a 1995 by-election, but lost it in 2006. Paradis lost by 1,200 votes last time, as the federalist vote is traditionally split in this riding, which allowed Ouellet to carry it the last two elections. It could flip back this time, but the Liberals are not polling strongly in the province, so it remains a toss up.

43. QC Brossard-La Prairie
Newcomer Alexandra Mendes bucked the trend in 2008 and unseated Bloc incumbent Marcel Lussier, although just barely — by 69 votes. Mendes has the advantage of incumbency and the Bloc has yet to nominate a candidate in this ethnically diverse riding, which doesn’t bode well for their chances of re-taking the riding. But given the softness of Liberal support in the province, it remains too close to call.

44. QC Gatineau
One of the most interesting ridings to watch in Quebec, Gatineau tends to be a 3-way race between the Bloc, Liberals and NDP. If Liberal support continues to slide and the NDP continues to poll north of 15% in the province, it would not be a surprise to see former Liberal MP, turned NDP Francoise Boivin take this riding from Bloc incumbent Richard Nadeau.

45. QC Haute-Gaspésie-La Mitis-Matane-Matapédia
The retirement of Bloquiste incumbent Jean-Yves Roy opens the door for the Liberals in this riding. Liberal candidate Nancy Charest impressively moved this riding from 13% Liberal to 35% in 2008, bucking the trend for the Liberals in the province and coming up just 600 votes short of winning. But with the Bloc nominating local mayor J.F. Fortin, this one is too close to call.

46. QC Jeanne-Le Ber
The Bloc Quebecois have held this riding narrowly since 2006, but the Liberals would like to take it back. A bit of a mixed riding with the heavily francophone Verdun part of the riding competing with the more ethnically diverse Saint-Henri part. Leans Bloc.

47. QC Montmagny-L’Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup
A riding long held by Bloc Paul Crete, it swung to the Conservatives in a 2009 by-election. While Bernard Généreux has the incumbency advantage, it’s unclear if the backing of the Bloc general election machine will be enough to re-take this riding. The area is an ADQ stronghold provincially, which bodes well for the Tories. Could go either way.

48. QC Papineau
Justin Trudeau re-took this riding from the Bloc by about 1,200 votes, no doubt aided by his family name. There is talk the NDP is not competing hard in this riding, with the understanding the Bloc will do the same in neighboring Outremont, in both cases to help defeat a Liberal. Trudeau is now the incumbent, but it could go either way.

49. QC Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier
This riding is hard to read as its held by independent Andre Arthur, who usually votes with the Conservatives. The Conservatives did not run a candidate against Arthur last time, which proved decisive as he narrowly held the riding by 662 votes over the Bloc — but that represented a decline of almost 5,100 votes from his 2006 showing. The Conservatives are again not running a candidate, but the trend appears to favour the Bloc here.

50. QC Roberval-Lac Saint Jean
Like Montmagny, the Conservatives took this seat (handily) in a by-election on the strength of former Roberval mayor Denis Lebel. Lebel held the seat by 1,500 votes last time and faces a re-match with Bloquiste Claude Pilote. Lebel probably has an advantage again here, but it could go either way.