41st Canada Election

Post Budget: Conservatives Hold 135-94 Seat Lead

admin — Fri, 12 Mar 2010 15:37:35 +0000

Here are the latest seat projections, including a couple of new polls this week from Ekos and Harris/Decima. I’ve broken the projections down into “solid” (where the projected margin of victory is 10 points or greater) and “leaning” (less than 10 points).

NATIONAL
CPC – 135 seats (106 solid + 29 leaning) – 34.4% support
LPC – 94 seats (64 solid + 30 leaning) – 30.2% support
BQ – 45 seats (40 solid + 5 leaning) – 9.1% support
NDP – 34 seats (19 solid + 15 leaning) – 16.2% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 7.9% support

ONTARIO
LPC – 47 seats (34 solid + 13 leaning) – 37.9% support
CPC – 45 seats (34 solid + 11 leaning) – 36.8% support
NDP – 14 seats (8 solid + 6 leaning) – 15.4% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 9.1% support

QUEBEC
BQ – 45 seats (40 solid + 5 leaning) – 36.7% support
LPC – 20 seats (12 solid + 8 leaning) – 28.3% support
CPC – 9 seats (6 solid + 3 leaning) – 17.6% support
NDP – 1 seat (0 solid + 1 leaning) – 12.1% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 4.5% support

BRITISH COLUMBIA
CPC – 21 seats (14 solid + 7 leaning) – 39.2% support
NDP – 9 seats (6 solid + 3 leaning) – 23.9% support
LPC – 6 seats (3 solid + 3 leaning) – 23.0% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 12.3% support

ALBERTA
CPC – 27 seats (27 solid + 0 leaning) – 56.8% support
NDP – 1 seat (0 solid + 1 leaning) – 9.6% support
LPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 18.8% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 12.5% support

PRAIRIES
CPC – 22 seats (19 solid + 3 leaning) – 51.6% support
NDP – 4 seat (3 solid + 1 leaning) – 18.7% support
LPC – 2 seats (1 solid + 1 leaning) – 19.8% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 9.2% support

ATLANTIC CANADA
LPC – 17 seats (13 solid + 4 leaning) – 36.8% support
CPC – 11 seats (6 solid + 5 leaning) – 32.5% support
NDP – 4 seat (4 solid + 0 leaning) – 24.0% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 6.0% support

NORTH
LPC – 2 seats (1 solid + 1 leaning) – 34.0% support
NDP – 1 seat (0 solid + 1 leaning) – 23.1% support
CPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 31.5% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 10.8% support

Conservatives Hold 133-95 Seat Lead

admin — Sun, 28 Feb 2010 19:04:41 +0000

Here are the latest seat projections, including a couple of new polls this week from Ekos and Environics. I’ve broken the projections down into “solid” (where the projected margin of victory is 10 points or greater) and “leaning” (less than 10 points). There are 81 seats currently in play, a bit more than 1/4 of the seats.

NATIONAL
CPC – 133 seats (104 solid + 29 leaning) – 34.7% support
LPC – 95 seats (64 solid + 31 leaning) – 31.5% support
BQ – 44 seats (39 solid + 5 leaning) – 9.2% support
NDP – 36 seats (19 solid + 17 leaning) – 15.8% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 7.5% support

ONTARIO
LPC – 47 seats (34 solid + 13 leaning) – 38.2% support
CPC – 45 seats (34 solid + 11 leaning) – 37.5% support
NDP – 14 seats (6 solid + 8 leaning) – 14.1% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 9.3% support

QUEBEC
BQ – 44 seats (39 solid + 5 leaning) – 35.7% support
LPC – 20 seats (12 solid + 8 leaning) – 29.3% support
CPC – 10 seats (6 solid + 4 leaning) – 17.1% support
NDP – 1 seat (0 solid + 1 leaning) – 11.7% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 5.4% support

BRITISH COLUMBIA
CPC – 19 seats (13 solid + 6 leaning) – 38.5% support
NDP – 11 seats (6 solid + 5 leaning) – 26.0% support
LPC – 6 seats (3 solid + 3 leaning) – 22.9% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 11.1% support

ALBERTA
CPC – 27 seats (27 solid + 0 leaning) – 59.9% support
NDP – 1 seat (0 solid + 1 leaning) – 9.7% support
LPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 16.6% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 11.5% support

PRAIRIES
CPC – 22 seats (19 solid + 3 leaning) – 50.0% support
NDP – 4 seat (3 solid + 1 leaning) – 22.4% support
LPC – 2 seats (1 solid + 1 leaning) – 20.5% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 6.4% support

ATLANTIC CANADA
LPC – 18 seats (13 solid + 5 leaning) – 37.8% support
CPC – 10 seats (5 solid + 5 leaning) – 32.0% support
NDP – 4 seat (4 solid + 0 leaning) – 23.7% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 5.7% support

NORTH
LPC – 2 seats (1 solid + 1 leaning) – 34.5% support
NDP – 1 seat (0 solid + 1 leaning) – 22.6% support
CPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 31.9% support
GPC – 0 seats (0 solid + 0 leaning) – 10.3% support

Conservatives Hold 133-99 Seat Lead

admin — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 22:21:35 +0000

Latest seat projections show the Conservatives with a 133-99 seat advantage over the Liberals, including new polls this week by Harris-Decima and Ekos. See results below…

NATIONAL
CPC – 133 (34.6%)
LPC – 99 (32.5%)
BQ – 45 (9.1%)
NDP – 31 (15.5%)
GPC – 0 (7.1%)

ONTARIO
LPC – 49 (38.9%)
CPC – 45 (37.7%)
NDP – 12 (13.4%)
GPC – 0 (9.1%)

QUEBEC
BQ – 45 (35.6%)
LPC – 21 (30.5%)
CPC – 9 (16.8%)
NDP – 0 (11.3%)
GPC – 0 (5.1%)

BRITISH COLUMBIA
CPC – 19 (37.4%)
NDP – 10 (25.5%)
LPC – 7 (25.2%)
GPC – 0 (10.3%)

ALBERTA
CPC – 28 (62.0%)
LPC – 0 (16.9%)
GPC – 0 (10.4%)
NDP – 0 (8.3%)

PRAIRIES
CPC – 22 (49.1%)
NDP – 4 (21.1%)
LPC – 2 (22.6%)
GPC – 0 (6.5%)

ATLANTIC CANADA
LPC – 18 (38.8%)
CPC – 10 (31.8%)
NDP – 4 (22.9%)
GPC – 0 (5.7%)

NORTH
LPC – 2 (35.5%)
NDP – 1 (22.3%)
CPC – 0 (31.9%)
GPC – 0 (9.6%)

Little Political Change as Olympics Begin

admin — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 17:18:10 +0000

Our latest projections include new polls by Environics, Ekos, and Angus Reid over the past week or so. While Environics shows a slight tilt towards the Liberals, it is offset by a slight tilt towards the Conservatives in the Ekos and Angus Reid polls, so the start of the Olympics has has changed little from our last update a week or so ago. The Liberals and Greens are up marginally and the NDP is down a bit, but otherwise things are holding steady.

NATIONAL
CPC – 129 (34.6%)
LPC – 103 (32.9%)
BQ – 45 (9.3%)
NDP – 31 (15.2%)
GPC – 0 (6.9%)

ONTARIO
LPC – 53 (39.2%)
CPC – 41 (37.2%)
NDP – 12 (13.4%)
GPC – 0 (9.3%)

QUEBEC
BQ – 45 (36.1%)
LPC – 21 (31.1%)
CPC – 9 (16.6%)
NDP – 0 (11.2%)
GPC – 0 (4.3%)

BRITISH COLUMBIA
CPC – 19 (37.0%)
NDP – 10 (25.6%)
LPC – 7 (25.6%)
GPC – 0 (10.2%)

ALBERTA
CPC – 28 (61.2%)
LPC – 0 (17.9%)
GPC – 0 (10.2%)
NDP – 0 (8.2%)

PRAIRIES
CPC – 22 (48.7%)
NDP – 4 (22.5%)
LPC – 2 (21.8%)
GPC – 0 (6.3%)

ATLANTIC CANADA
LPC – 18 (39.7%)
CPC – 10 (32.9%)
NDP – 4 (21.0%)
GPC – 0 (5.6%)

NORTH
LPC – 2 (35.9%)
NDP – 1 (22.0%)
CPC – 0 (32.0%)
GPC – 0 (9.4%)

Conservatives Drop Following Prorogation

admin — Mon, 08 Feb 2010 16:22:48 +0000

As widely expected, the latest seat projections show a significant drop for the Conservatives, as Canadians register their displeasure over the government’s decision to prorogue Parliament. The current state of affairs looks much like the weak majority of 2006. Our current projections are:

NATIONAL
CPC – 129 (34.5%)
LPC – 102 (32.4%)
BQ – 45 (9.4%)
NDP – 32 (16.0%)
GPC – 0 (6.5%)

ONTARIO
LPC – 53 (39.5%)
CPC – 41 (37.7%)
NDP – 12 (13.8%)
GPC – 0 (8.1%)

QUEBEC
BQ – 45 (36.3%)
LPC – 21 (30.6%)
CPC – 9 (16.6%)
NDP – 0 (12.0%)
GPC – 0 (3.7%)

BRITISH COLUMBIA
CPC – 19 (37.1%)
NDP – 10 (25.3%)
LPC – 7 (26.2%)
GPC – 0 (9.9%)

ALBERTA
CPC – 27 (60.3%)
NDP – 1 (9.0%)
LPC – 0 (15.3%)
GPC – 0 (13.0%)

PRAIRIES
CPC – 22 (51.8%)
NDP – 4 (21.4%)
LPC – 2 (19.1%)
GPC – 0 (7.0%)

ATLANTIC CANADA
LPC – 17 (35.7%)
CPC – 11 (33.2%)
NDP – 4 (25.6%)
GPC – 0 (4.7%)

NORTH
LPC – 2 (35.4%)
NDP – 1 (22.9%)
CPC – 0 (32.0%)
GPC – 0 (9.0%)

End-of-Year Seat Projections

admin — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 21:45:31 +0000

As 2009 draws to a close, here are our current seat projections. There has been little change over the last month.

CONSERVATIVE — 38.9% (144 seats)
LIBERAL — 27.6% (87 seats)
NDP — 16.0% (32 seats)
BLOC — 9.3% (45 seats)
GREEN — 7.1% (0 seats)

Nov 27 Vote and Seat Projections

admin — Fri, 27 Nov 2009 17:53:41 +0000

We’ve seen a bit of an increase for the NDP over the past couple weeks. Here are DemocraticSPACE’s latest seat projections:

CONSERVATIVE — 39.1% (143 seats)
LIBERAL — 26.6% (88 seats)
NDP — 15.6% (32 seats)
BLOC — 9.5% (45 seats)
GREEN — 7.9% (0 seats)

Latest Projections: Slight Dip for the Conservatives

admin — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 17:11:02 +0000

New polls by Nanos and Ekos show a slight dip for the Conservatives. The latest aggregate polling between Oct 4-20 gives the following projections:

CONSERVATIVE / 40.4% / 146 seats
LIBERAL / 28.4% / 90 seats
NDP / 14.2% / 28 seats
BLOC / 9.1% / 44 seats
GREEN / 6.8% / 0 seats

Conservatives Near Majority Territory

admin — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 00:41:29 +0000

Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are on the cusp of majority territory, according to the latest DemocraticSPACE projections. Taking into account polls conducted by Angus Reid, Ekos, Harris-Decima, and Ipsos (the latest Nanos poll is over a month old, so we’ve included and additional Ekos poll through Oct 6 instead) — including polls ending Oct 6 through Oct 14 — we currently project the following:

CONSERVATIVE / 40.8% / 152 seats
LIBERAL / 27.4% / 84 seats
NDP / 13.9% / 27 seats
BLOC / 9.3% / 45 seats
GREEN / 7.5% / 0 seats

Traditionally, a party in Canada has been able to win a majority with 40% of the vote, but the Conservative vote is not entirely efficient. The Conservatives run up big raw vote numbers in Alberta, B.C. and the Prairies, but they are winning almost as many seats as they can, so additional vote doesn’t necessarily translate into more seats. So, the Conservatives probably need an extra 1-1.5 points nationally to win a majority.

Interestingly, these results show how the Conservatives can win a weak majority without a breakthrough in Quebec. In fact, current projections show the Conservatives losing 1 seat in Quebec. The Conservatives are able to come close to a majority by winning many close seats in Ontario’s 905 region, as well as dominating in the West. Atlantic Canada continues to be a battleground; if the Conservatives can pick up a few seats here and a few more in Ontario, a weak majority is within reach.

Projection Update This Weekend

admin — Thu, 15 Oct 2009 20:41:11 +0000

I’ve had quite a number of people email me asking when I would be doing an update. With the threat of a fall election seemingly lessened, and a busy schedule, I apologize I haven’t done an update in a while. I hope to do an update this weekend, so stay tuned.