19 Responses for "WELLAND"

1. Niagara Guy September 14th, 2008 at 4:00 pm 1

   One week into the campaign and the NDP is clearly winning the sign war. The Liberal incumbent is trailing badly behind both the NDP and Conservative candidate.

   Both the NDP and Tories seem to be targeting this riding given the close result in 2006 and the weakness of the Dion Liberals.

   Depending on how the Liberal vote erodes, this seat could end up in either the NDP or the Conservative column, but my money would be on the NDP at this point.

2. timf September 18th, 2008 at 5:51 am 2

   This race just got a lot more interesting. Jody DiBartolomeo has announced that he will be running as an independent in this race – basically a revenge candidacy against the NDP for not nominating him this time around. the nomination battle was hotly contested, and DiBartolomeo was surprised and very angry when he didn’t get the nomination. While he has increased the vote tally in the riding for the NDP, he began to think he was entitled to win the riding, and when asked why he lost the riding by the press on election night in 2006, he replied that “the voters of Welland had f**ked me again.”

   DiBartolomeo could splinter off enough of Allen’s support to allow the Liberal to run up the middle and keep the riding.

3. Wellander September 18th, 2008 at 3:12 pm 3

   DiBartolomeo’s candidacy is a joke. He will have zero impact on this campaign. Any support he bleeds from the NDP will only serve to rally the NDP base to win. The race is shaping up to be between the NDP’s Malcolm Allen and the Conservative candidate Alf Kiers. The NDP is clearly winning the sign war though.

4. Leo Lehman (Liberal) September 18th, 2008 at 6:58 pm 4

   I’m giving this riding to John Maloney. The fight here is between the NDP & Maloney’s Liberals. The Conservatives have zero change of winning here. As evidenced by the protesters at a Harper event in Welland and his lack of interest in the closing of the John Deere plant.

   Even with the NDP throwing everything they can at this riding, it won’t be enough. The Liberals are bringing in some heavy hitters to campaign for John, Staring with Michael Ignatieff on this weekend, who is very popular in the riding.

5. Paulie Sigh September 25th, 2008 at 7:12 pm 5

   Leo…Michael Ignatieff? Puh-lease. Nobody outside of politics or Harvard knows of Michael Ignatieff.

   The Tories brought THE PRIME MINISTER to this riding. Do you think any Prime Minister would visit a riding that isn’t in play?

   Actually, I’m happy Ignatieff is coming to this riding. The same Ignatieff who told Canadians Dion “didn’t get it done” when it came to reducing green house gases when Dion was Environment Minister.

6. Paulie Sigh September 25th, 2008 at 7:16 pm 6

   Big surprise..union members protesting against a Conservative.

   The folks at John Deere should protest against local MP John Maloney – whose government brought in free trade – which the union decries as the reason for the job losses.

   They should also protest against LIBERAL premier Dalton McGuinty – who found money for the auto sector, but not John Deere.

7. Leo Lehman September 28th, 2008 at 3:15 pm 7

   At least when Michael Ignatieff actually talked about job losses at the hands of the Tories. Harper came to Welland, which had lost over 1000 jobs since this election began to talk about flavored cigarettes? It’s no wonder the Conservatives have no chance of winning here, since their leader does not care at all about job losses here.

   And Paulie, check your history, it was a CONSERVATIVE government that brought in free-trade. and a CONSERVATIVE government that cut economic development and told the world not to invest in Ontario.

8. Paulie Sigh September 28th, 2008 at 7:49 pm 8

   If free trade is so bad – Chretien had 13 years to get rid of it. But he didn’t, just like he didn’t get rid of the GST – remember that one? And wasn’t it the Liberals who were against free trade?

   And I did check my facts. Jim Flaherty said considering the high taxes in Ontario – thanks to your Dalton McGuiny Liberals – is the reason business would not want to invest in Ontario. Jim was talking the truth that Ontario has the highest business taxes in Canada – and was urging McGuinty to cut them – like every other province in Confederation.

   FACT: Scotiabank forecasts McGuinty’s Ontario to have 0% growth this year. WE USED TO LEAD OTHER PROVINCES!!!

   And don’t give me this bs about a US economic slowdown, high gas prices and a high Canadian dollar – those factors affect ALL PROVINCES – and Ontario is still last in growth.

9. Paulie Sigh September 29th, 2008 at 1:44 am 9

   Another Fact Check Leo. While you are right, the Mulroney Tories signed NAFTA, it came into effect on January 1, 1994. It happened on Chretien’s watch, and if he didn’t agree with NAFTA, he could have not gone through with it!

   I welcome free trade. I just can’t stand people who champion it when it suits them, and rails against it when its politically convenient to do so.

10. Jim Ebsary September 29th, 2008 at 3:35 pm 10

    as a soon to be displaced worker at john deere, i have nothing but contempt for john maloney.

    when the factory announced it was closing, his first reaction when interviewed by the tribune was that he was ’shocked’. the plant closing was a direct result of nafta. he’s been our mp since 1993. he’s known what free trade has done to welland, he’s fully aware that his party supports it, and yet he has had no plan in place to deal with all the job losses that have been a result of free trade. why was he shocked? did somebody finally wake mr. invisible up?

    he votes with conservatives when it suits his religious needs (e.g. anti-abortion). he’s so worried about the rights of the unborn, yet doesn’t appear to be all that concerned about the suffering that all these job losses mean to the families in his riding.

    he seems only to be concerned with seniors now. maybe that’s why he brought ignatieff to the seniors centre, or took out that bogus ad in the tribune about the new hospital location.

    then we have alfred kiers, a former member of the family coalition party, aka the Christian Taliban. has he renounced the Domionist attitudes of the fcp?

    religious people should be welcome in politics. however, they need to get off their knees, unclasp their hands, and do something productive! we need people in office that uphold their civic duties, not promote their religions.

    right now, i’m leaning towards malcolm allen, but i’d like to see what mooradian has to say.

11. Dan October 4th, 2008 at 8:37 am 11

    Christina Blizzard reporting for Sun Media believes that this riding will shift to the NDP. The Green Shift isn’t popular in Welland – they are worried about jobs. Alfred Kiers (a greenhouse farmer) will likely cut into the Liberal vote in the rural part of the riding. Peter Kormos has been campaigning for Malcolm Allen.

12. On the Ground October 6th, 2008 at 4:37 pm 12

    On the ground, Malcolm Allen is clearly the one to beat. He has the most signs, he has the most volunteers, he he even has the Liberal and Conservative candidates attacking his party in campaign brochures and in media interviews. A week ago, Welland was probably the most exciting three-way race in the country. This week, Allen has emerged as the one to beat. Both CAW and voteforenvironment.ca have given him the nod as the straegic choice to defeat the Tories in Welland. The reason should be obvious – with the NDP polling at 24% in Ontario (Oct 6 Harris-Decima and Oct 6 Nanos), and with the Liberals and Tories struggling to maintain their bases of support from 2006, this seat is ready to be moved into the NDP column. Expect Allen to win with between 35-40% of the vote.

13. Wellandgood October 7th, 2008 at 8:17 pm 13

    Ontheground seems a little confused about Allen’s current “status” on the strategic voting site voteforenvironment.ca. As of the wee hours of October 8, that website has not “given the nod” to any candidate, so please let’s try and be straight up about this stuff. In terms of the most likely outcome for this riding, consider the following, Green numbers are soaring across the country, including this region, logically the most likely party to suffer from that surge is the NDP. Now place that alongside DiBartolomeos’ entry into the race and ask yourself who he is most likely to bleed votes from, again the answer is the NDP. If anyone is in a position to put the blocks to the Conservatives in this riding, the smart money is on Maloney, not Allen. Allen’s a nice man and quite capable of doing the job, but the stars are unfortunately aligned against him this time around and that’s just the way it is.

14. Thorold Thumper October 9th, 2008 at 12:17 pm 14

    This website always seems to underestimate NDP support and overestimate Liberal support in this riding.

    How else could one explain why the NDP is not leading in this projection?

    In the 2007 provincial election this website’s forecast for Welland was off by about 5% for the winner and 5% for the Liberals.

    The NDP winner in 2007 won 54% of the vote, but was only projected to win between 47 and 50%. Conversly, the Liberal loser won just 23% of the vote even though he was predicted to win between 28-31% of the vote.

    Malcolm Allen is an experienced politician running a flawless campaign. Greens and other minor candidate will barely make a dent in this riding. (The greens do not even have signs for their candidate or an office). The difference between the current campaign and the 2006 NDP campaign is like night and day. On straight number from regional polls, Allen should be ahead by at least a few points. Those of us who live here know he’s doing even better. I susepct he will win with between at leasy 37 and 40% of the vote. Maloney will be lucky to hold on to 30%.

15. Stephen Mastroianni October 10th, 2008 at 7:40 am 15

    I will tell you why John will be re-elected in this riding. He is a steady hand in Ottawa with a proven record that people can respect. On top of that he is a genuinely nice guy that the people in the community can relate too. The only thing that is hurting John is Dion and his Green Shift, but believe me come election day people will swallow the Green Shift bs and vote for the steady hand in this troubled time.

    With all due respect to Mr. Allen, he does not even live in the riding and people might write that off or say who cares, but the people of Welland do care. And proof of this can be seen in the history of the municipal elections. Look at a Ward by Ward break down and it is rare occurrence that a candidate running for the first time wins in a riding that they do not call home. Furthermore the people that cite the massive amount of Provincial NDP support as proof of a Federal NDP surge is just plain wrong. I know for a fact that many many Federal Liberals vote NDP Provincially because of the Peter factor. I would be willing to bet that the NDP would not win Welland Provincially without Kormos. But that is a discussion for another day. For the record Jodi will be a non-factor in the so claimed “NDP vote split” he will be lucky to gain 500-1000 votes.

    Finally Alf Kiers, the multiple loser for the CHP, do I really need to say anymore? I mean for a riding that the Conservatives had on their top 10 (some peoples top 5) wish lists, this candidate is a joke. He will get the usual Conservative support from the Party faithful (mostly from the more rural areas, shocking I know) and gain the usual 25%-30% of the vote.

    So to conclude, yes the race will be tighter than years passed but on Tuesday, the people of Welland will go with the incumbent, just like they have since the introduction of the current riding boundaries and like they have for the last 20 years Provincially.

    One final factoid for all you out there, the riding that has included Welland has voted Liberal all but once since 1935, that’s 24, yes 24 elections. The only loss? 1984 when Allan Pietz beat Gib Parent, and Parent came back in 1988 to reclaim the seat. And I’ll tell you what, none of these candidates are an Allan Pietz, who was a well respected Mayor of Welland and Regional Councilor.

16. On the Ground October 11th, 2008 at 9:47 pm 16

    The most recent 2008 polling indicates a provinicial trend wherein in Ontario the Conservatives are at between 34-37%, the Liberals are between 32-35%, and the NDP are between 21 and 24%. Based on these numbers alone, one could expect that the vote share for the Conservative candidate will remain roughly the same or perhaps edge up very slightly. The NDP candidate is likely looking at a small increase, while the Liberal candidate is looking at a significant decrease of at least 5 points. If everything stayed the same and Maloney lost 5 points, the NDP would win. Even a 3.5 point swing would hand the riding to the NDP. The swing appears to be much larger in the polls. The math is not that tough…

    2006 riding result / 2006 Ontario result/ latest NANOS

    Liberal 35.5 / 39.9 / 32
    NDP 30.7 / 19.4 / 24
    Con 29.2 / 35.1 / 35

    To be fair, the indpendent candidacy of the former NDP candidate may seem like a complicating fatcor, but this oddball candidacy has had virtually no impact on the campaign (see comments by previous poster).

    If the NDP numbers in Ontario can stay above 20% and neither the Liberals nor Conservatives break the 40% line, the NDP is likely to pick up this seat.

    The party is running its best ever federal candidate. His camapign has been positive and full of volunteers. The local media has been kind to the Welland NDP and Jack Layton’s visit to Thorold (he previously visited Welland in the first week of the campaign) is likely to seal the deal for Malcolm Allen.

    Also, although it is true that voteforenvironment.ca has not endorsed Allen in Welland, anyone form the riding who visited the site would plainly see that his 2,500+ projected vote lead over Maloney would make him the logical strategic choice to stop the Tories.

17. Sarah Connor October 12th, 2008 at 4:38 pm 17

    Anyone who says they care about climate change MUST vote Liberal in Welland. Why? Very simple: the risk of a Conservatives win is too great — and if that happens, guess who represents Canada at the upcoming climate treaty talks in Dec 08 and 09? The same Harper crew he sent to Bali, which made Canada a laughingstock of the world. Remember, not only was Canada not helping at the climate talks in Bali, under Harper, Canada actually obstructed progress! NDPers…you really want to be responsible for buying the plane ticket to send Harper’s rep to the next climate summits? What are u thinking!

    So don’t let Harper (and John Baird) gloat – don’t split the vote!

18. King of Kensington October 12th, 2008 at 6:40 pm 18

    NDP pickup – the NDP got over 30% of the vote here last time and Maloney’s 35% isn’t all that impressive, considering that the NDP is polling above 20% and the Libs are down to around 33% in Ontario.

19. Paulie Sigh October 18th, 2008 at 7:35 am 19

    So Stephen:

    How do you explain the good people of Welland electing an NDP MP, Kiers beating Maloney and Maloney finishing an embarrassing third?