2008 CANADA ELECTION

14 October 2008

SEAT PROJECTIONS & RIDING DISCUSSION -- SELECT PROVINCE/TERRITORY OR RIDING

ST. CATHARINES

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2008 CANDIDATES

INCUMBENT
RICK DYKSTRA WALT LASTEWKA GEORGE ADDISON JIM
FANNON
SAM
HAMMOND

ST. CATHARINES
2006 RESULTS

Candidate Party Vote Count Vote Share
Rick Dykstra 21669 37.47%
Walt Lastewka 21423 37.05%
Jeff Burch 11848 20.49%
Jim Fannon 2305 3.99%
Bill Bylsma 481 0.83%
Elaine Couto 101 0.17%

ST. CATHARINES
2004 RESULTS

Candidate Party Vote Count Vote Share
Walt Lastewka 21277 40.47%
Leo Bonomi 18261 34.71%
Ted Mouradian 10135 19.26%
Jim Fannon 1927 3.66%
Linda Klassen 751 1.43%
Jane Elizabeth Paxton 204 0.39%
Elaine Couto 61 0.12%

HAMILTON / NIAGARA ARTICLES
David Sweet finally says something in Ancaster Dundas Flamborough Westdale (Posted 17 months ago)
Voters Will Take The Initiative (Posted 18 months ago)
Stephane Dion in St. Catharines (Posted 18 months ago)
It’s 3pm on Hamilton Mountain (Posted 18 months ago)
Rick Dykstra apologizes for Harper’s income trusts betrayal (Posted 18 months ago)
All Candidates Meetings Begin in Ancaster Dundas Flamborough Westdale (Posted 18 months ago)
Hamilton: A Quick Snap Shot (Posted 18 months ago)
The Garden City Rematch (Posted 18 months ago)
GM Funding Announcement Comes at Suspicious Time (Posted 18 months ago)

26 Responses for "ST. CATHARINES"

  1. Doug September 16th, 2008 at 10:44 am 1

    It was a mistake for Walt Lastewka to run again. I think voters do not connect with him anymore. The liberals may have had a chance if they chose a new, energetic, innovative representative, but they did not. Rick Dykstra has spent a great deal on advertising in this riding while elected, informing voters on issues and getting his name out to the electorate. The NDP in St. Catharines has too few resources and minimal finances to run a successful campaign against Dykstra and Lastewka.

  2. SV. September 20th, 2008 at 4:48 am 2

    Walt’s campaign at this point consists of trying to claim responsibility for everything that came to St. Catharines from the federal government since 2006. Since Walt has little to no profile in the riding — despite being the MP for 13 years — it’s not clear whether voters are really paying attention to him. It was a close race last time, and it will be a close one again, but given current Ontario trends and a very strong local Conservative organization, it’s going to stick with Rick.

  3. Roy September 20th, 2008 at 6:00 pm 3

    There’s no way this site can claim legitimate numbers if they have St. Catharines in the Conservative column while Welland is TCTC. Overheard on the street is a lot of anti-Lastewka, and a lot of anti-Harper. There really are not many pro-anyone votes in this riding to be found, so count this one as one of those pivotal swing ridings that the national media will focus on once the polls close. Hunch says Dykstra retains this seat by doubling his margin of victory.

  4. Elmo Harris September 21st, 2008 at 3:34 pm 4

    St. Catharines is to close to call but leaning Liberal. Rick Dykstra is not very popular in St. Catharines and Stephen Harper is even less popular.

    Meanwhile, Walt Lastewka remains quite popular in the riding. The vote here in 2006 was more a vote against the Liberals & the sponsorship scandal than a vote for the Conservatives

    The NDP vote is going to drop because of a weak candidate and anti-harper sentiments. And some of the former “PC’s” who voted Conservative in ‘06 will vote Liberal to get rid of Dykstra.

  5. Garth Stevenson September 22nd, 2008 at 11:32 am 5

    Lawn signs are useless as a predictor of election results. On the one occasion when I ran as a federal candidate the Liberals won the sign war but were a distant third in the actual vote. Lastewka neither did not said anything of substance during his thirteen years in Parliament and the Liberals made an error of judgement in nominating him again this time after he lost in 2006. Given that fact and Dion’s lack of popular appeal I will be astonished if Dykstra doesn’t win by a comfortable margin.

  6. timf September 24th, 2008 at 8:13 pm 6

    I find no small irony in the fact that Dykstra has apologized to the people of St. Catharines for the conservatives breaking their promise over income trusts.

    Dykstra himself promised the local labour movement that he would vote in favour of Bill C-257, a Federal anti-scab bill. He did for the first two readings, but on the third reading he flip-flopped and voted against it. Dykstra apologizing for Harper breaking promises? Pot, meet kettle.

  7. Paulie Sigh September 25th, 2008 at 7:05 pm 7

    timf – Lastewka said he would not run for office after he lost in 2006. Said one thing…..and did another.
    He should apologize for lying about eliminating the GST

  8. Paulie Sigh September 25th, 2008 at 7:26 pm 8

    Elmo, you sound like you are still in dis-belief about the 2006 election.

    Whether it was the sponsorship scandal, a bad central campaign, or whatever, you can make all the excuses you want.

    The bottom line is Rick beat Walt. Done and dealt with. Get ready for a repeat on October 14.

  9. MARTOOOOOOOOOO September 26th, 2008 at 5:46 am 9

    The main argument that Liberals are making is that Walt lost because people stayed home due to the sponsorship scandal. Well – Walt actually got a couple hundred more votes in 06 in comparison to 04. So What does that mean?

    Firstly it means – that the Liberals are looking for excuses.

    It also means that Dykstra pulled a whole lot of new votes. Dykstra is young and dynamic – In his previous life as a political staffer and a campign manager – Rick worked on sophisticated campaigns – and learned all the tools of the trade to winning in close races. He also met a group of young energetic friends who worked across the province on election races. Rick has the committment of those friends now – and had one of the best teams in the country – because – trust me – Rick knows he needs to be better than the competition to win this.

    So why did Walt lose – Because, quite frankly, Rick outfoxed him – and worked harder on the 06 Campaign.

    What does this mean in 08?

    Rick has worked hard over the last 2.5 years in ensuring he improve the strngth of his organization – while it was strong in 06 – it is even stronger in 08 – with more experience and a group of volunteers that have learned how to win a close race. This race will indeed be close – but I don’t think that it will be as close as 06 – and I predict Rick will beat Walt again.

  10. Patricia September 28th, 2008 at 8:36 am 10

    This makes for interesting reading. Dykstra supporters here are dead wrong!!!! Dykstra is disliked by many, many people in this riding. Walt is well known, did a great job as MP for over a decade and has great connections with the business, education, arts and culture, etc communities here. He has a huge number of volunteers, I’m one of them, and he is extremely organized. He has been out talking to people, not down to them from his PMO approved talking points like Dykstra, almost every day and evening since the writ was dropped. Response is very good. The NDP vote that took Walt’s seat away last time don’t deserve it again. Vote NDP and you’ll get a Conservative majority. A vote for the NDP is worth Jack!!!!!!! Leader Elizabeth May says she wants people to vote for whoever can defeat the cons and in this riding that is Walt Lastewka, Liberal candidate!!!!! May does not want to see Harper there again and neither do I.

  11. MARTOOOOOOOOOO September 29th, 2008 at 9:48 am 11

    Well Patricia – I am a Dykstra Volunteer – and I am pleased to tell you that we too are quite well organized and that we too are getting a great response at the door.

    I can also tell you that there are many many people that dislike Walt – but even more I hear about how they think it is sad that Liberals had to turn back to a guy that was in Ottawa for over a decade and had little impact then. Or I hear that Walt still has dirty hands from the sponsorship scandal (Shame on him!).

    Now if the Liberals had looked forward and found a young dynamic candidate (or a leader)- They may have had a better chance here – With Walt the Libs in St. Catharines look washed up!

  12. Evan September 29th, 2008 at 12:26 pm 12

    Wow, the Conservative campaign must be worried if they are having their campaign volunteers attacking the Liberal candidate on his age. Ignoring the fact that Walt has worked and delivered for St. Catahrines while he was MP and all Rick Dykstra has given St. Catharines is excuses and talking points from Ottawa.

    St. Catharines will one again turn to the man who delivers results for our city…Walt Lastewka.

  13. Patricia September 29th, 2008 at 12:28 pm 13

    Well Martooooo, This is called Democratic Space for a reason, we are all entitled to our opinion. Maybe Harper should have looked for someone who was not involved in the Mike Harris government that ruined this province and left us with a huge deficit, as the Harper government is now doing nationally. good luck to you and your fellow volunteers but I am sticking with my prediction. You all know that stuff about Walt is a LIE but that never stopped a Neo con before so why should it now!!!!!! I will not spend my time here arguing with you so thanks for your comment on my comment but don’t waste your time trying to convince me and I won’t waste my time trying to convince you. I’m glad there seem to be lots of people involved in this election, whatever side they are on. I just wish people would stick to the facts instead of spreading misinformation and lies. My post contained no such thing and maybe you should try posting without that kind of stuff. Just stick to the facts, people appreciate it more than the negatives and the lies!!!!!!

  14. Paulie Sigh September 29th, 2008 at 2:57 pm 14

    Patricia, here are some facts:
    Lastewka said in 2006 that we would not run for office again.
    Lastewka was part of the Liberal party that promised to eliminate the GST.
    Lastewka was part of the Government that funneled taxpayer money as part of the Sponsorship scandal.
    Those are lies – those are facts!!!

  15. SV. September 29th, 2008 at 5:55 pm 15

    It’s a rather odd position the Lastewka supporters are taking. I never found Lastewka to have much of a profile in this riding, despite what his campaign staff are writing here — here’s a hint: it might help your credibility to avoid using Lastewka’s rather contrived ‘works and delivers’ campaign slogan here. His rather arrogant dismissal of the lead contamination cleanup on Glendale Avenue certainly makes me wonder what he was doing between 1993 and 2006. Certainly not working and delivering for anyone who lived near that site.

    I’m seeing more NDP signs around than I remember from last time, so I’m not sure how anyone expects strategic voting here — with the NDP at 19-20%, they’ll repeat their 2006 result. Lastewka certainly can’t be called progressive by any stretch of the imagination, so I’m really not convinced any New Democrats would be motivated to vote for him. Which leaves him several thousand votes short, since the Conservatives have pulled much further ahead in Ontario than last time.

  16. Nick September 29th, 2008 at 6:50 pm 16

    Interesting that SV mentions NDP signs, as I can count the number of NDP signs I’ve seen in St. Catharines on two hands, and I manage to get around a lot – though this isn’t much different from previous elections. It’s also interesting to see the various pockets of support – the South End (including Glenridge) is packed to the brim with Dykstra signs, while the North End seems to have more Lastewka signs and the West End is a fair mix of both. I’ve seen a few homes that have both a Conservative and NDP lawn sign, but I haven’t seen a Liberal sign combined with anything else.

    Having said that, I think Walt is in dire straights and most certainly is not going to win. History is against him, as St. Catharines has consistently voted with the party that has formed government all but two times in its history – those two times it voted with the opposition were Conservative wins with a Liberal government in 1972 and 1980. Anyone who thinks Dion is going to form government as this point is more delusional than those who think the Green Party is actually going to win a seat in this election. This is also the first election that my aunt – an ardent member of the Liberal Party for as long as I can remember and someone who tried to take me to Walt’s office to get me to become a member of the Liberals when I was a teenager – is voting for the Conservatives. Not because she feels that they’re the better choice, but rather because she thinks Dion’s whole green shaft will destroy this country and that the Tories are the lesser danger. Her feelings have been expressed by most people I’ve spoken with. I am also a Dykstra volunteer who has been pounding the pavement, and the response has been overwhelmingly positive. If there are people “angry” with Rick, I am most certainly not seeing it and I would love to know where they are. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dykstra gets ~45% while Lastewka drops into the low 30s this time around, with the NDP hanging on to their usual support in the 15-20% range. That’s just the feeling I get based on the response I’ve gotten at people’s homes and on the phone, and the polling numbers in this part of Ontario. The Globe and Mail “battleground” tracking of this riding is also showing it as a solid Conservative win.

    As for those who think people are “attacking” Walt for his age (coughEvancough), cut the crap. No one is attacking Walt for his age. When you see Rick next to Walt, it’s pretty obvious that there is a quarter century difference in age between them.

  17. Patricia September 30th, 2008 at 1:04 pm 17

    in reply to Paulie Sigh, just follow this link or go to this website for 100 examples of lies, misinformation and cover ups. I’m not here to argue with people who are so obviously trolling for Dykstra.

    http://www.100reasons.ca/articles.php?tag=All_Articles

  18. SV. October 5th, 2008 at 5:58 am 18

    So, we’ve been treated to three days of Walt Lastewka’s bizarre Standard ads. Hey Walt, you know that CanGro, Dana and John Deere aren’t in St. Catharines, right? The last two are, in fact, in Welland — a Liberal riding.

    Yesterday’s ad hit a new height (or depth) of inanity and vapidity. Rick Dykstra has always given appropriate credit to his predecessor for projects he’s worked on as MP. As for Walt… well, a guy who plants billboards all over the city advertising how he “works and delivers” (delivered what?) doesn’t strike me as the type to share credit.

    So we have a Liberal campaign which is really all about Walt Lastewka, and how he feels hard-done-by for some reason. I don’t think this is going to get anywhere on Election Day.

  19. Gamesover October 6th, 2008 at 8:19 am 19

    Gee, that’s usually a Neo-Con tactic SV and is used all the time by a twat we’re stuck with who takes credit for bringing the GO train to our city even though it was the work of our previous LIBERAL MP Aileen Carroll. He also likes to take credit, in full colour and at the taxpayers’ expense, for the GST rebate, also thanks to our previous LIBERAL MP and the Paul Martin government. You have to pity the guy, he’s a backbencher and it’s tough work plagiarising other people’s ideas…

  20. Patricia October 7th, 2008 at 12:29 pm 20

    Here’s a great link to follow to a very informative website.

    http://www.anythingbutconservative.ca/

  21. Pattrick McCallahan October 8th, 2008 at 10:15 am 21

    Dykstra’s record, (or lack thereof) is comming back to haunt him and is going to cost him this riding. He’s done nothing for the riding other than promise money(that hasn’t arrived yet) and show up at ribbon cuttings.(For projects he had nothing to do with). In 3 years Dykstra hasn’t delievered anything to St. Catharines except for Ottawa excuses and Conservative arrogance.

    Walt Lastewka is still well regarded in the community. He is honest & straight, not polished like “Slick Rick”. And he’s delivered for St. Catharines which is why he is going to win here on October 14th.

  22. SV. October 9th, 2008 at 11:49 am 22

    Wow, that’s the first time I’ve seen someone try to make a virtue out of Lastewka’s almost total incoherence. I wouldn’t call him honest, though, considering the content of his Standard advertising. I think he’s well aware that Dana, CanGro and John Deere aren’t in St. Catharines, and that Ferranti-Packard announced its plans to close when he was still the MP.

  23. Paulie Sigh October 10th, 2008 at 8:42 am 23

    Was Walt honest when he told the people of St. Catharines he wasn’t going to run again after losing in 2006?

  24. Leo Lehman October 10th, 2008 at 12:33 pm 24

    Wow, a few things than need to get cleared up. First of all, There are any number of people who live in St. Catharines who work(ed) at Dana, CanGro and John Deere. I think it’s rather ignorant and irresponsible for Dykstra supporters to claim that it’s not Rick’s problem since it’s not his riding. Those people are out of work and Dykstra is part of a government that did nothing for those workers. All they got from Dykstra was excuses from Ottawa.

  25. Leo Lehman October 10th, 2008 at 12:34 pm 25

    & Paulie, just because you’ve said 3 times that Walt said he wasn’t going to run again, that doesn’t make it true. You can repeat a lie all you want, and it won’t make it come true.

  26. Paulie Sigh October 18th, 2008 at 7:31 am 26

    Well Walt did say that…….but I guess losing to Rick AGAIN – this time by 9,000 votes – all but seals the deal that Walt’s political career is over.


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