11 Responses for "LONDON WEST"

1. Matt September 16th, 2008 at 10:17 am 1

   While I would not be surprised to see this riding flip to the Conservatives… it is staggering to me that this prediction can be made:
   1. in the absence of local polling data
   2. in the absence – on this site – of candidates (there are signs, so there are obviously nominees)
   3. in the absence of any blog entries from Southwestern Ontario, let alone the riding itself.
   I understand the methodology…. but doesn’t it look a bit silly to post predictions with absolutely no other information. At best, a list of local nominees on this page would give some credibility to your methods.
   Why bother launching at all, if you are not going to update anything except your own predictions?

2. Matt September 17th, 2008 at 5:54 am 2

   Interestingly, you’re calling this riding for the Conservatives… and yet, you do not include it in the 68 ridings that will ‘win’ the election. It seems to me that any riding going Liberal to Conservative would be on that list…
   As an aside, this riding does appear on the CTV/Globe list of battleground ridings to watch.
   I’ll be fascinated to see if your predictions hold, or if this year you’re more bluster than reality.

3. John Barber September 17th, 2008 at 9:34 am 3

   One might keep in mind that Gina Barber was NOT the NDP candidate in 2004, and ran about 5% better than the party in 2008.
   She is NOT the NDP candidate in 2008.

   JB

4. Gone Fishing September 17th, 2008 at 5:21 pm 4

   I think this riding is the surest bet for the Liberals in London. I would suggest that Glenn Pearson in London North Centre is in a tougher fight with councillor Paul Van Meerbergen working to take the seat for the Conservatives. I am not hearing from any of my conservative friends and I am a member here in London West.
   Our former riding president has friends in the riding who will be more apt to work for her candidacy in London Fanshawe. There is also some bitterness from some of us toward the way Holder took this nomination. I won’t believe he wins till I see it and I think others are more likely to turn.

5. John September 17th, 2008 at 6:59 pm 5

   Actually John Barber, Gina was indeed the candidate in 2004 and again in 2006. Those runs led to her getting elected municipally but she is still active in the 2008 Peter Ferguson campaign.

6. Jason September 19th, 2008 at 4:21 am 6

   I believe this riding does, in fact, appear on the CTV list of battleground ridings, but I think that Sue Barnes will keep her seat.

7. Serious Thinker September 24th, 2008 at 10:24 pm 7

   My in-laws are in London West. Some of them used to be PC’s years ago, but chamnged to the Liberals.

   I am confident they will vote Liberal this time, there is no real reason for them to do anything else.

8. Sedate Me September 25th, 2008 at 12:34 pm 8

   I’d like to think Pearson is safer than Barnes. Nothing against her, I just shudder at the thought of replacing a guy like Pearson with an a-hole like Van Meerbergen. Even if I was a Conservative, I wouldn’t want that guy to win.

   If it was a 3 person re-match from 2006, I’d say the Conservatives would narrowly win London West. The lack of Gina Barber will migrate a lot of NDP voters to “strategic vote” for Barnes. From what little I can tell, Holder sound a little more like a Red Tory which is the right move for London West Conservatives. However, if there is a resentment towards Holder, it will counteract that. Maybe Barnes will win this after all.

   What’s the story behind Holder’s nomination? I really hate the shady crap that goes along with party nominations.

9. Christopher D'Aguilar October 4th, 2008 at 4:55 am 9

   Please keep in mind that in Canada we only vote for Prime Minister by voting for the candidates that represent the party he or she leads, If you vote for Ed Holder you get Stephen Harper.

   If you wish to stop a Conservative government you must vote ABC or any one but Conservative. Sue Barnes has represented this riding and if the vote is changed this time there is likely one more Conservative seat in London West.

   If you wish to be strategic, leave Sue Barnes in Ottawa. This is not an election to protest.

10. David Heap October 10th, 2008 at 8:55 pm 10

    On my street (in London West) there is an even split of NDP and Liberal signs, with only one Conservative sign (’round the other side of the block) visible in the neighbourhood as I walk my dog.

    Not sure where this polling (?) is coming from or who Ed Holder was before or where his campaign is at now. I’ve had multiple calls from the Liberals, Lib and NDP materials at my door, and a big NADA from the Conservative non-campaign (not that I miss it !). Commander Steve’s sweaters may be swaying some people in other parts of the (fairly diverse) riding but they don’t seem to be doing much where I live.

    As for the “Red Tories” mentioned above, they simply don’t exist in the Harpercritical party anymore (since they dropped the “Progressive” before “Conservative”).

11. King of Kensington October 12th, 2008 at 6:32 pm 11

    Conservative pickup…they came within 1500 votes last time.