14 Responses for "LONDON-FANSHAWE"

1. Jason Brown September 22nd, 2008 at 5:58 am 1

   The NDP will keep their seat in this riding. Across the country, NDP support is on the rise, and Irene Mathyssen is a very likeable candidate who makes her presence felt both in Ottawa and in her riding.

2. Jason September 22nd, 2008 at 5:52 pm 2

   Wow.. already the NDP has dispatched their people to spew their talking points on internet vote prediction sites.
   Clearly, they’re running scared.

   People in this riding now know what type of representation to expect from Irene Mathyssen, and I can see them voting to block her out this time. She has given our riding a bad name with her intensly partisan style in Ottawa, reading Valentine’s Day cards to the PM and accusing a Conservative minister of looking at pornography in the House.

   Last time I checked, it was also against House rules to use householders to promote your political party… yet every householder is used to promote the NDP’s ‘policy flavour of the month’…

   It’s TCTC… and if voters in the area end up backing one candidate, then Irene will be looking for work come the 15th.

3. janfromthebruce September 24th, 2008 at 6:11 am 3

   Gee, and I thought we were fighting the Harper Agenda. Liberal ranters sure know how to take the fight where it belongs – NOT.

   I hope Irene wins. We need more progressive voices in Ottawa, not MPs who will support the Harper agenda.

4. Sylvain Lapointe September 24th, 2008 at 11:48 am 4

   This is the problem with the Liberals, attacking the NDP instead of Harper, no wonder thaey are at 25% in the polls….

   This will be very tough, I think Mary Lou Ambrosio of the Conservative will get some votes. although Irene will probably survive. Jacquie Gauthier will end up 3rd.

5. Sedate Me September 24th, 2008 at 1:04 pm 5

   Pure speculation here. I am FAR from an insider, just an innocent bystander.

   Glenn Pearson would have given Mathyssen a real run for it and, by doing so, turned it into a three way race. However, I don’t like the odds of a female, Liberal, with a “French sounding” name in an EOA riding…unless her radio show is much more popular than I think. (On a hunch, I looked it up.) I still like the odds of a Conservative “Italian sounding” named woman much better, especially if she remains invisible. Harper helps by hogging her (and most Cons.) websites.

   Even though the NDP should be somewhat of a natural for this riding, don’t underestimate the appeal of macho-strength (aka “leadership”) and social conservatism to the EOA crowd. I’ve never heard of the Conservative candidate, but if they nominated anyone with decent name recognition, they might win.

   As a result, I expect a very narrow NDP win in an almost 3 person race. It could be one of the last Ontario ridings to be called.

   As an aside, it’s funny how often you get 2 or even 3 women running against each other for a legislature that’s pretty much a sausage party. It’s almost as if the parties get together and plan it that way.

6. S.Peckinpaw September 24th, 2008 at 7:54 pm 6

   Mathyssen is a shoe-in for London-Fanshawe. Jackie Gauthier??? radio personality??? what, where and when — never heard of her. Mary Lou Ambrogio is inexperienced and also an unknown, and seriously, who is crazy enough to vote Conservative anyway. And then there is Daniel O’Neail — Green Party candidate. Though the Greens might make some progress this election, I don’t think Daniel has the campaign power to really get out there and strut his party’s stuff. He’s writes a pretty good column (on LondonTopic.ca) when he’s not trying his hand at politics but as far as actually getting elected, well, I think he’s peeing in the wind.

7. Sedate Me September 25th, 2008 at 9:16 am 7

   I wish there was some polling results to back that “shoe-in” claim up, because I see a squeaker.

   Jacquie Gauthier was a radio personality on an easy listening channel, so most of her audience will be women who’ll likely to vote for her just because she’s helped them “get through the morning” for so long. That will nibble away at Mathyssen’s female vote. The more male Conservative vote, even if they liked her show, wouldn’t vote for her. So, a lot is riding on how popular her radio show was. We all know another female, Liberal, radio personality who made a successful transition into local politics, so I wouldn’t dismiss Gauthier so fast.

   The more popular the show is, the closer to Mathyssen she’ll get and the closer the Conservatives will be because of it.

   As illogical as it is, the Conservatives will do well here. I think a bucket and a mop with a Conservative sign on it would get about 25% of the vote in London Fanshawe. Look at the 2006 results. The top two are both MPs now. The Conservative I’ve never heard of got 29% of the vote and was 2,500 votes short of beating both. The fact their current candidate is Italian helps. We all know a successful local politician who rides her EOA Italian roots all she can.

   The big factor here is the Harper Conservative Party. We aren’t talking about wishy washy Progressive Conservatives here. We’re talking about strong, in command, in control, manly men who don’t run from nuthin’. They’re sticking with the war. They won’t take away your guns. They’ll buy more guns for the military. And they won’t take more of your money to build some wimpy nanny state. Gonna do what they say and say what they do! Wild West baby!

   Never, never, underestimate the power of looking strong. Despite millions of years of evolution, we are still just damn dirty apes. As a group, we don’t pick leaders because of their policies are the best. We pick them because they look the strongest. It doesn’t matter if you support the war, own a gun, or give a rat’s ass about the military. It doesn’t matter if the tax benefits don’t outweigh what you’re losing to get them. People will respond positively to such shows of strength. Some folks refer to it as “Leadership”.

   This effect is particularly strong with (How can I say this gently?) less intellectually orientated people with more immediate concerns than researching political policies and their effects.

   It also helps when you’re leading in the polls over a wussy french guy. He could have the best policies in the world and could be ten times as smart, but he’s still the monkey who gets covered in dung and Harper is the silver back gorilla. The only way that changes is if Harper makes a major stumble like breaking a pack taboo, but nobody in such a stylish sweater would do that.

   That’s why I see a squeaker in a riding that should be a shoe-in.

8. Eugene Dustin September 25th, 2008 at 12:42 pm 8

   I have to agree with “shoe in” comments directed at Irene. She’s the only logical choice. Irene has proven herself in this Riding, is always available for everyone, and let’s face it ; She’s the only candidate with Political Experience. I am strong believer in the phrase “how do i get the experience if I can’t get the job”. But come on , let’s get real. The other candidates have no political experience and they want to take on a Federal Post. I use to be strong Liberal supporter. However, during the last election campaign I researched all of the candidates . From speaking with Irene, during that campaign, I turned my loyalties to the NDP and I don’t regret it for one second. The NDP are for the People; no matter who you are. To the new kids on the block; get out there and get some Political Experience then come back and campaign.

9. Christopher D'Aguilar September 26th, 2008 at 8:41 pm 9

   There is so much partisan politics in any election, that the real issues of choosing a representative get lost. It is fine to say that Irene Matheson is paritisan and uses her householders to promote the NDP agenda or as the writer says ‘the NDP flavour of the month’. Has the writer received any of the Liberal or Conservative householders? If they had it can be seen that they are no less partisan.

   Irene Matheson and her office are always very helpful, as should an MP’s office. Irene has served in Provincial Parliament prior to coming to London Fanshawe Federal representation. Have any of the other candidates come with the experience that Irene has? Between the social issues, the Co-ops that she has fought for and won and the many groups that she has supported. She was always front and center in all of the women’s issues, the Muslim community, the GLBT community and liasoned with the city on many important issues.

   Perhaps it is time to look at an election as a job interview. Irene has proven that she is more than capable of representing this riding. Dumping a representative for doing nothing wrong just seems to be the wrong approach.

   Of all of those who have put their names forward, Irene is the most experienced and most involved of any of them. Perhaps the constituents should take a good look at the representation they have had and appreciate what they have. Changing a representative just to change the colour of the party they belong to is just plain wrong.

10. Tim Deakon October 1st, 2008 at 2:50 pm 10

    I think this riding will swing with the national trend. It could very well go conservative especially since more students are taking a conservative stand. My 19 yo son at Fanshawe will probably vote CPC

11. Jason Brown October 3rd, 2008 at 3:57 am 11

    I want to echo Tim Deakon’s comments. More and more students these days are, in fact, becoming more and more conservative…just like Stephen Harper said of all Canadians. But I still think Irene will hold on to this seat. Most people in this riding are very happy with the job Irene is doing, and I wish this website would finally predict an NDP win here.

12. Christopher D'Aguilar October 3rd, 2008 at 1:20 pm 12

    I too watched the Fanshawe debate on Rogers. Gauthier made a valid point that 66% of us voted against the harper Conservatives, yet they were elected with the most seats due to vote splitting. This is were we part company. now is not the time to change your vote. In any riding that is not held by a Conservative, it is most prudent to leave the vote the same or the vote could yet again be split the wrong way. Mathyssen is the sitting MP and leaving her there is one more step to preventing a Conservative majority. London West is another riding where it is best to leave the vote the way it was. Democratic Space is already calling it a Conservative win, which is one more seat in the wrong direction.

13. Former Sudburian October 7th, 2008 at 3:21 pm 13

    Jason Brown, where are you getting your information about students becoming more conservative? I’m a student and a teaching assistant, and I just don’t see it. Young people seem to spread pretty evenly among all the parties, and there are especially a lot of students who are either NDPers, or newly interested in the Greens. The Young Liberals and Young Tories continue to do well at the university and college level, but it would be a big stretch to say the Tories have any more than 1/4 of the student vote. It’s probably closer to 1/5 or 1/6. And on social issues students seem to be decidedly centre-left. I just don’t see a groundswell of Conservative support on campuses.

14. Arn Brown October 10th, 2008 at 10:24 am 14

    While I agree that Irene is well positioned as the incumbent, it is worth noting that in the last election, the Conservative candidate was virtually a part time candidate carrying on his business activities during the writ period. With a full time candidate the Conservatives may well do better. Glen Pearson, who is well respected in the city still lost to Irene but later succeeded in London North Center. Gauthier is not as strong a candidate and the specter of a 3rd place for the Liberals is not out of the question at all, nor is the spread between the NDP and Conservatives being very close either way, out of the question. Either could win IMHO