20 Responses for "HAMILTON MOUNTAIN"

1. West Italia September 21st, 2008 at 11:06 am 1

   I think that Banham should be able to pick this one up for the Liberals. His signs are everywhere and he’s working the riding hard. He’s been to every event I can think of and knocked on the doors of all my friends in the riding. He’s younger, is taking the high road and just plain working hard.

2. Kyle September 24th, 2008 at 11:28 am 2

   I actually think Banham is the best hope in Hamilton – he has the most energized Liberal campaign in the area. Plus the revelation in the news that the current incumbent’s constituency office is only open to 1pm has caused quite a stir among Mountain residents.

3. Westitalia September 25th, 2008 at 11:06 am 3

   The NDP may win the “rising” but I do firmly believe that Banham will pick up ther “riding”. Like I said earlier, I believe that Banham is winning the sign war – they’re everywhere. He’s knocking on tons of doors and doing the work. Combine that with the revelation that MP Charlton’s office is only open until 1pm in the afternoon, as the second commenter noted, and I believe we are seeing the right combination for a seat change.

4. Chris Simms (Liberal) September 25th, 2008 at 3:50 pm 4

   I’m thinking that Banham represents the best hopes for the Liberals in Hamiton. Of all the Liberals in the city:

   - Banham is the best organized
   - Banham has the biggest team
   - Banham has a lot of young people working for him
   - Banham has the only riding association that isn’t fractured.

   This combination clears up a lot of the stumbling blocks that many other candidates are encountering. Some ridings are still fighting their nomination battles (figuratively of course) or are dealing with massive fall-out from their nominations, making their volunteers fluid. Banham is the only Liberals who has not only retained his traditional volunteer base, but added to it from other ridings.

   Within the riding, Banham has a number of factors going for him:

   - Banham is able to get a substantial amount of media
   - Banham has the most amount of signs
   - Banham has released several literature pieces across the riding
   - Banham has been to nearly every door in the riding (with some of my friends reporting that he has shown up three or four times)

   I see growth and opportunity here for Banham.

   A good local campaign can make up between 3-7 per cent lost from a national campaign and Dion is certainly not doing Banham any favours, but he is making progress and is bucking the trend. My thinking is that if Beth Phinney can win this riding by 43 votes in the 1988 election (with John Turner at the helm no less) I feel that Banham will be able to pull off a win. Like the experts say, campaigns matter, and if that is true, local campaigns matter too and thus far Banham is pulling off one hell of one.

5. Pierre Martin September 27th, 2008 at 4:18 am 5

   I’ve know Tyler for more than 10 years now and I know for a fact that is doing everything he can do to win this riding. People in Hamilton Mountain may have someone that might have more impact on their riding in the futur than any previous MP.
   Tyler is a great public speaker with a great sense of planning and he’s able to make operation on the go! Without a doubt Tyler would win this election.

6. Al Rathbone September 28th, 2008 at 2:46 pm 6

   Wow what a love fest for Tyler Banham.

   “- Banham is able to get a substantial amount of media”
   No more than other candidates? As a resident I have to wonder where this extra media is?

   “- Banham has the most amount of signs”
   In some places, In others he is very lacking. Overall i’d say Charlton and Banham are tied with Anderson close behind.

   Side Note: If Banham has knocked on every door, he should have WAY more signs. If he has knocked on every door it is a bad sign for him that he only has as many signs as he does.

   “- Banham has released several literature pieces across the riding”
   Really? Why did I only get ONE? I’ve gotten the same from Anderson, and received many annoying newsletters from Charlton. Plus the Conservatives sent in some Ten-Percenters, just before the election.

   “- Banham has been to nearly every door in the riding (with some of my friends reporting that he has shown up three or four times)”
   He must not be knocking anywhere south of the linc, cause no one around here has seen him. He also skipped on a few mid sized community events on the mountain since the writ was dropped, that other candidates attended.

   I note also that the Democratic Space prediction for the riding is too close to call, between the Tories and NDP. (21-24% for the Libs, 28-32% for the Cons and 37-41% for the NDP).

   I’m not intending to criticize Banham too harshly, but merely to inject reality into a currently one sided conversation.

7. Jack Mathis September 28th, 2008 at 4:59 pm 7

   Oh Alistair – stick to knocking on doors for Terry Anderson. Everyone knows that you are the only teenager on Hamilton Mountain supporting a conservative. Pretty weird actually.

   Banham is killing your guy in every facet of the campaign – signs, ground war, media (yes my friend – Banham gets tons of media – much more than Charlton and Anderson [who gets next to none btw]. The 3pm ad has been shown so many times on CHCH that it’s become free television space for him. CHML has taken to playing it on the radio. In fact, on Friday’s CHCH news at 6, Charlton was reduced to saying “obviously the ad is working if you’re asking me about it.”. What ad of Anderson’s was shown on TV? That’s right – none.

   This week’s Mountain featured a cover story on Banham, a page 2 story on Banham, the editorial on him. None on Charlton. 1 on Anderson “defending party gaffes”.

   Banham has also become a Spectator star ….netting media coverage nearly every 2nd day. Anderson? ….that’s the sound of crickets there

   Anyways, Alistair – I applaud your fierce partisanship but you’re going to get a reality check on election night sunshine.

   This is clearly a Banham v Charlton battle. Anderson will do worse than Graves and Jackson did.

8. Al Rathbone September 29th, 2008 at 11:52 am 8

   The only teenager on the Mountain supporting Anderson? Possible, but unlikely. The only student? I am definitely 100% sure that I am not the only student.

   I wouldn’t know about the Mountain News? How many actually read it? The 3pm has definitely not been shown “many many times”. It got a few showings on Morning Live (which repeats everything over and over, who can stand watching for more than 15 minutes?) Then it got an evening news story. The next day it was nothing.

9. Al Rathbone September 29th, 2008 at 11:58 am 9

   I accidentally pressed the post button while scrolling. But this post is probably better by itself anyways. While you applaud me for my “fierce partisanship” I’ve never gone out of the way to attack Liberals or NDPers personally. And have tried to remain realistic about the election.

   On the other hand, You have denigrated me for being a teenager and conservative, spoken down to me, and used a fair bit of hyperbole to exaggerate the chances of your favorite candidate (Spectator Star is just a *weee* bit of a stretch don’t you think?)

   Anyways, if you plan on trying to use my full name in the future (wherever you gleamed it from) i’d appreciate if you spelled it right. If not: don’t bother.

10. BlastFurnace September 29th, 2008 at 6:13 pm 10

    I am absolutely impressed by how Banham is doing here in Hamilton Mountain. Nothing against Chris Charlton who is a strong advocate for the NDP and for this district, but with two weeks to go I’d have to say it’s Banham’s to lose. The Liberals absolutely have to get a pickup here and a few other marginal seats where it’s a Liberal-NDP race, if they have even a slight chance of overtopping Harper.

11. Joe Distler September 29th, 2008 at 7:05 pm 11

    The only place Tyler Banham is winning is on blogs and discussion boards like this one! He does seem to have a loyal following of young Liberals who are spending way too much time trying to create a perception on-line that he is some sort of rising star of a candidate. Sadly, he’s not.

    Tyler is a lawyer from Ottawa who has worked in the backrooms for the likes of Paul Martin and Ralph Goodale. Hardly the kind of CV that impresses folks on the Mountain.

    Chris Charlton is well known and popular. Tyler’s attempt to paint her as a slacker isn’t going to hold water because people know it isn’t true. I can’t blame him for trying, though. It’s all he’s got. I can’t imagine that he wants to go to people’s doors and say the words “carbon tax” or “Stephane Dion”.

    Terry Anderson is running a better than expected campaign and I wouldn’t be surprised if he comes in second. He definately has more signs up than any Conservative in recent memory. And there seems to be an a market for the Conservatives here.

    But in the end, Charlton will win. She’s the incumbent, her leader is popular, and the resurgent Tories have too much ground to make up. Plus, some of the Liberal vote will still hold – in spite of their neophyte local candidate and bumbling national leader.

12. Mickey September 30th, 2008 at 1:11 pm 12

    I can’t believe what I’m seeing!

    Joe Distiler (Hello, fake name!) has no idea about what he’s saying. Somehow, Charlton’s experience of running so many times makes her qualified? Give me a break! She’s without substance.

    Charlton is NOT well known. Indeed, many people are confused as to whether she’s male or female. Popular? There is a visceral hate for her among a large portion of the Mountain community.

    In spite of what is becoming a very nasty sign war perpetuated by the NDP, it is clear that the Mountain is independent of voter intimidation. Tyler has more then a chance! He’s leading.

    Each negative comment must be a symptom of nervousness from Harper’s house – which Jack helped build.

13. Chris Simms (Liberal) September 30th, 2008 at 4:16 pm 13

    Ok, well I see that my comment has started a wide variety of discussion.

    Let me examine this issues by issue if you all don’t mind.

    SIGNS

    Are signs a good indicator of support? Yes, I do believe so. And from the get-go Tyler Banham has had most, I would say. Additionally, he has the most damaged signs. The NDP is playing the same old game they always do – destroy, destroy, destroy. I’ve been in a number of elections for both the Liberals and the NDP (I’m supporting the Liberals now, as you can tell by my name) and have been told by NDP campaign managers to go after signs. It happens and I’m not saying that the other parties do not, but it certainly is an NDP tradition. Look in any ditch in the riding and you’ll see a pile of Liberal signs broken and busted, and some spray painted. It’s disturbing.

    MEDIA

    I still contend that Banham has gotten more media than both Charlton and Anderson. He hosted a number of town halls over the past year and got media each time. He’s had a number of articles and op-eds in the Mountain News and was the top story on CHCH news two nights in a row with his “3pm” ad. This is significant for a local candidate.

14. Dan Haines September 30th, 2008 at 9:49 pm 14

    Tyler Banham signs are everywhere and he seems to be all over the mountain tryinig to get people involved in making the Hamilton Mountain matter. I think we need someone with this kind of enthusiasm, someone that gives a one hundred percent and who wouldn’t have his office closed at 1pm!

15. Westitalia October 1st, 2008 at 11:56 am 15

    I think this prediction is wrong. Charlton may win it in the end, but this race is much closer. It should be labelled as “too close to call” still.

    May I ask what the methodology for deciding this race was? Are you simply taking national polling results and applying it to local races? Dion may be tanking but I do think that Banham is running a much better local campaign.

16. Westitalia October 7th, 2008 at 9:10 am 16

    National Liberal numbers are pulling up, I would say that this riding is still in play and “too close to call” for sure. Banham also had a strong performance on the televised debate, that’s gotta be worth a few points locally.

17. Ted Stevens October 8th, 2008 at 4:44 pm 17

    As someone following the Hamilton Mountain campaign closely (hint: I’m a professional at this) the people who are calling this riding “too close to call” must be living in some kind of hallucinogenic dream-world. The Banham campaign, while being good at getting media, has no message to the voters other than “Waah, my signs are down!” As for Banham himself, he is definitely not ready for prime time, and his amateurishness (as well as that of his campaign team) is on display in every move he and his team make. It’s my guess that most of the work is being done by university students, judging by the lack of professionally produced messaging, not to mention the poor quality of his leaflets, all poorly written and loaded with grammatical errors and typos. It’s too bad, as the Libs generally stand a higher calibre candidate to run in an important riding such as the Mountain.

18. Westitalia October 9th, 2008 at 7:14 am 18

    Not sure when working on an NDP campaign made someone a “professional” but, hey, whatever works for you there Ted.

    Let’s examine the lit, then shall we Ted? Chris Charlton came to my mothers door the other day canvassing. My mother said she would consider her (she won’t btw, but was nice about it anyways) and instead of handing her a piece of literature, she handed her an orange ruler from her constituency office.

    Now, I’m not a “professional” like Ted here or anything, but I see two problems with this scenario:

    1) Why is a candidate handing out constituency office material while campaigning during an election?

    2) If the Banham team is the one with the poor literature, what does it say about a candidate who has none? An incumbant candidate at that, who is reduced to using the government paid for swag from her constituency office?

    This seems a bit odd. But, you are the professional, so who am I to question you, right Ted?

    I also find it interesting that our friend Ted here (who is working on Chris Charlton’s campaign for the sake of full disclosure) would say that university students are not “professional”. Doesn’t your party claim to represent students? Doesn’t your party claim to want to help students? If so, Ted, why would you want to slag them down like that? Why take cheap shots at university students?

19. Al Rathbone October 9th, 2008 at 12:42 pm 19

    From the other side of the the spectrum, I also found Banham’s latest stuff pretty amateurish, compared to the materials from the other two. I just got yet another Charlton flyer (second within the last week), and while one was a cheap invitation to join the campaign team, the other was a very professional flyer. The only Banham flyer we got since the start of the campaign, was the aforementioned amateurish flyer recieved recently.

20. Joe Distler October 27th, 2008 at 11:45 am 20

    Hey Mickey, Wesalia… YOU WERE WRONG AND I WAS RIGHT! Oh, wow, that felt better.

    My much miligned analysis that Charlton would win and that the Conservatives would come in second was right. And Banham was a DISTANT third.

    Not even close.