A commentary by Elsie Hambrook, Chair of the New Brunswick Advisory Council on the Status of Women, is a must-read.

When Doris Anderson, former and famed editor of Chatelaine and lifelong activist, came to Saint John on a stormy winter night in 2003, drawing hundreds of women to hear her speak on electoral reform, she confided something that, years later, still makes some of us think…

Getting the message out to the public [no matter what it is] is damn hard these days. Not just because the media and corporate and party elites are so strongly against democratic and electoral reform, but because, among other things, locations where people come together are increasingly not available for canvassing or soliciting.

For example, at the All Candidates Meeting in my community, I wanted to distribute Fair Vote Canada flyers on the seats in the theatre. I’d printed off 250 flyers, plus sheets of the FVC petition for candidates and audience members to sign (was hoping to ask a question at the mic on ER/PR).

When I arrived at the ACM venue, I asked permission of the manager to distribute my flyers on the theatre seats.

Denied.

So I asked permission to distribute the flyers outside, at the front of the building.

Denied again.

Even the purportedly public sidewalk fronting the building was off-limits….

Full article

There’s an excellent money-for-dummies article out today, written by an Associated Press writer, which explains a basic economic fundamental in plain terms. Once you understand that basic principle and begin extrapolating from it, you soon realize the broader implications for “ordinary Canadians” of Stephen Harper’s “great buying opportunities.”

After giving 50 billion dollars in corporate tax cuts. Conservatives and liberals let us spend 18 billion on a war that a majority of Canadians do not want to fight.

Who said there was no money for social justice and middle class families ? It seems there’s plenty of it, it just depends on your priorities.

As I wrote when the news of the afghan mission cost came out in the middle of September, the numbers will come out and give munitions to the only pacifist party in Canada, Jack Layton’s NDP. Kevin Page’s report says the Canadian afghan war machine could reach 18 billion dollars. But he also noted he could not have access to all the numbers. The conservatives hide some numbers and so have the liberals in the past. There is a major lack of transparency on those numbers, told Layton.

Media helping Dion to grasp the leftist votes

The media are backing a Dion-Harper duel as it serves them well since both are friends with corporations and establishment and they won’t try and push for real change. On the other hand, they’re scared of Layton who wants to bully the banks so that they stop taking advantage of working families and low income Canadians. Every election is the same, the media toss aside the left when the final round comes.

The liberals are only progressive during election time. Don’t waste your left vote on them, you will just carry on the same old right wing economic ideas that lead us to recession. It’s time for change. Only the NDP will benefit a majority of Canadians, the major parties favour the high income minorities.

As the New Democratic Candidate in Scarborough—Agincourt, I’ve just finished seven debates and many more interviews.

After speaking with thousands of residents, I keep hearing three topics come up as the top concerns here:

Repealing regressive immigration reform (Bill C-50)

Scarborough—Agincourt has one of the largest immigrant populations in all of Canada. Residents have been bringing up Bill C-50 at every debate I’ve attended. It was a very regressive piece of immigration legislation brought in by the Conservatives that the Liberals let pass. The NDP was the only federal party that stood up and united against it. Constituents here are very upset with this bill because it gives arbitrary powers to the immigration minister to pick and choose who goes up and off the waiting list based on his or her own biases, often favouring temporary workers over family-class and economic class immigrants. This has been detrimental to family reunification and is treating new Canadians like second-class citizens. The New Democrats not only opposed this bill and want to repeal it, we have a plan to make family reunification easier, recognize foreign credentials, and provide training and bridging programs for those who need to upgrade or need new credentials altogether. Not only have the New Democrats consistently stood up in Parliament for this kind of immigration fairness, we’re the only party that has allocated funds to these priorities to make sure the services and new programs we are promising will actually be delivered.

Ending the war in Afghanistan

People confirm what Liberal incumbent Jim Karygiannis said in his own survey back in February:

“Seventy-four percent believe we should not extent [sic] the Canadian combat mission beyond 2009”

And yet Mr. Karygiannis voted to extend the war.

A vast majority of residents here are against this war. The recent news of a British brigadier-general saying the war cannot be won only confirmed what residents have been saying here for years. The news today of the overspending on a mission that will now cost up to $18.1 billion ($1500 per Canadian household) now adds another dimension on top of the moral and practical reasons why this mission needs to end.

People see the war as inflaming terrorism in Afghanistan, as confirmed by the Toronto Star’s Thomas Walkom: “In three southern provinces, including Kandahar, terrorist attacks have increased more than 10-fold since 2002. In Kabul and surrounding areas, they have more than tripled” (August 18, 2008). In a riding concerned with safety, residents can’t see why Liberals and Conservatives are continuing a mission that is making Afghanistan less safe.

Poverty is also an issue: “A recent UN report says general indicators such as human development and poverty have worsened [in Afghanistan] since 2004″ (Rick Salutin, Globe and Mail, February 22, 2008). In a riding with 9.2% unemployment (even higher youth unemployment) and more than its fair share of poverty, families can’t understand why they’re being asked to pay $1500 each for a mission that’s increasing poverty overseas and adding to their own economic insecurity at home.

Finding an alternative in the New Democrats

For every vote Jim Karygiannis received last election, another voter stayed home and didn’t cast their ballot. Many people are turning away from Mr. Karygiannis because they believed in the Liberal brand; either Trudeau’s “just society” or Pearson’s commitment to peacekeeping. By abandoning the former with passing Bill C-50 and abandoning the latter with extending the war, people are looking for alternatives. There is a massive anti-Karygiannis constituency that is waiting to hear more about the alternatives so they know what they’re voting for.

With his visibility in the riding (signs and literature), many people were considering Dr. Benson Lau (Conservative) as that alternative. With his medical credentials, many assumed he’d stand up for health care. But after people realized that Stephen Harper’s last job with the National Citizens Coalition included the goal of dismantling universal health care, they began to ask how a doctor can stand up for health care with Harper as his boss. They also don’t understand how Dr. Lau, having immigrated to Canada, could support a party that introduced Bill C-50.

When residents realize the predecessor of the New Democrats (Cooperative Commonwealth Federation) was the party that brought universal health care to Canada on 17 consecutive balanced budgets and that the NDP was the only federal party to stand united against Bill C-50, many anti-Karygiannis voters who were thinking of voting Conservative are changing their intentions and trusting the New Democrats to deliver social justice, peace, and economic security. At a recent debate, one resident (Sharon Adams) echoed what many others have been telling me when she said, “I came to the debate tonight thinking I would vote Conservative to try and get rid of our incumbent, but that would be a wasted vote.” She was later quoted in the Scarborough Mirror which reported: The evening confirmed her leanings toward casting a vote for Dougherty, who Adams noted “was able to hold his own and seemed to know his facts” (October 8, 2008).

Going into the last week of a campaign, the buzz on the street is always your most important indicator of the outcome. When you work with the media, candidates and their campaigns will try and spin you a hundred different ways. So you need to hang out with real people who aren’t directly tied to campaigns. A good chunk of my weekend was spent talking to other people, from other parents at our kids’ Saturday afternoon activities to folks in the coffee shop to the nice people next to me in the pew Sunday morning.

The buzz is pretty much unanimous: Another Harper minority, another local win for Tony Martin (NDP). My gut feeling agrees with the latter. As one poster’s better half, a fellow parent, put it to me at the Y: “Tony is a safe bet. At least you know what he will do, which is nothing. Nobody is sure about the other [candidates].”

I’m not so sure it won’t be a Harper majority; the late NDP surge – they’re now in a statistical tie with the Liberals – may allow Tories to come up the middle in ridings where they otherwise weren’t competitive.

So barring some major faux pas this week, I’m predicting a Tony Martin win locally and a slim Tory majority nationally.

In speaking with other voters over the weekend, here’s what I found most interesting: They’re still asking the same questions about each candidate that they were asking when the writ was dropped.

Here are the questions:

- What has Tony Martin (NDP) done for this riding?

- Who is Cameron Ross (Conservative)?

- Why is Paul Bichler (Liberal), who has made Southern Ontario his home for the past few years, now running in the Sault?

- Why vote Luke MacMichael (Green), Cory Mcleod (First Nations Peoples Party) or Mike Taffarel (Marxist-Leninist) when their chances of winning are minute?

Note to individual campaigns: You have only a week left, so don’t waste time shooting the messenger. Answer the question for voters. They’re the ones who will decide your fate on October 14, not annoying Internet pundits like me.

Anyway, here are my predicted numbers for the Sault Ste. Marie riding:

1 – Tony Martin – 17,000
2 – Cameron Ross – 14,000
3 – Paul Bichler – 11,000
4 – Luke McMichael – 1,500
5 – Cory Mcleod – 500
6 – Mike Taffarel – 150

How did I arrive at these numbers? That’s easy. I asked my four-year-old, who is much more current in these matters than her old man.

One question that keeps coming up locally is how does Tony Martin keep winning elections when just under two-thirds of local voters opt for other candidates and the popular perception is that he has not delivered anything to this riding. The short answer is as follows: he’s a political care bear. He shows up at opportune times from his cloudy kingdom to tell you he cares.

But here’s a longer explanation. I agree with Mac Headrick, a local NDP columnist with whom I have the pleasure of writing at SooToday.com. You can check out Mac’s columns here. Mac has repeatedly told supporters of other parties to quit whining about Tony’s wins and take an honest look at how Tony wins them.

Saying Tony comes up the middle because the Sault is an NDP riding just doesn’t work any more. At one time, yes, the Sault was a NDP power base. But the local NDP base strength has been eroding now for some years. Need proof? Look no further than the Sault’s MPP, David Orazietti.

A Tory collapse can account for Orazietti’s 2003 provincial win, in which he defeated NDP incumbent Tony Martin. (This would set the stage for Tony to enter the federal race a year later and narrowly win the seat from Liberal incumbent Carmen Provenzano). A similar Tory collapse helped Orazietti retain his seat for the the Liberals in the 2007 Ontario election, but Orazietti also increased his percentage of popular vote in 2007 while driving that of the NDP down by six percentage points, to 26.4 percent. By way of comparison, Tony pulled in 38.9 percent of the vote during the 2006 federal election – a difference of over 12 percentage points from what the provincial NDP candidate, Jeff Arbus, pulled in the 2007 provincial election. And in the raw vote count, Tony doubled Arbus. Polls show Tony pulling in similar numbers this election.

These are Tony votes, not NDP votes. These are people voting for the local candidate and not the party. So why do they vote Tony?

Numerous polls and studies, from different political parties and non-partisan groups, in different geo-political areas, and independent of each other, more-or-less come up with the same results when determining how people vote. It’s something like this:

- 60% – Does the candidate care about me and the community?
- 30% – Policy
- 10% – Other

Like it or not, this is what comes up time and time again. This is the difference between Tony’s numbers and those brought in by Jeff Arbus. It’s Tony’s reputation as “a nice guy, who cares about his constituents.” It’s the little things Tony has done to make himself visible in this community, and behind-the-scenes, like helping the elderly fill out passport applications. He doesn’t bring in any big money to the riding, other popular local politicians cannot rely upon him, but everyone in the riding has a personal story about Tony personally helping some disadvantaged relative maneuvre through governmental red tape.

The perception may or may not be true in real life, but it’s the popular perception. And like it or not, people vote according to their perception.

The same is true about the popular perception about the Sault’s other local politicians who keep getting re-elected by large margins:

- Orazietti: Cares about the community and its future. Look at the money he brings in.

- Councillor Frank Manzo: Cares about the average taxpayer. Only politician to return people’s phone calls. Will help you even when your own councillor is not getting back to you.

- Mayor John Rowswell: Has the personality of grumpy bear being woken up during hibernation, but he cares about this community and its people and is just trying to move us forward. So people take his side when he feuds with local reporters, city administrators, and other local politicians.

For Liberal candidate Paul Bichler or Conservative candidate Cameron Ross to win, each needs to establish himself, as soon as possible during this last week of campaigning, as the candidate who most cares about the Sault and its people. I have no doubt that this is the case in real life, but it needs to be popular perception. When people don’t know enough about a candidate, they don’t know if that candidate cares or not.

Which is why Tony Martin keeps winning.

Dion and Harper repeatedly targeted Layton with an old and worn out quick blast about Layton’s so called socialist ideas. Guess what, the cold war is long gone. The neoliberal agenda in the US proved economic failure. Ecuador and several countries in Latin America are understanding now that if they want to help middle and lower class people fight against corporate exaggeration they better unite against the establishment and board room parties.

Dion, is talking about social justice now, but we all know from the past liberal governments he won’t be on the working class’ side. He will keep supporting right wing economic ideas, he will continue to give away our natural resources through disadvantageous trade agreements like the FTAA or WTO as they did with Chrétien earlier. We have to remember that after signing Kyoto, the liberals did nothing to support that choice and the consequences were a disastrous increase in pollution. No the liberal party is not centre-left. It’s always been centre-right. They voted over 40 times to support the conservatives in commons. They stole from EI envelope before and they won’t be giving that money back.

Can’t forget also the sponsorship scandal. The liberals proved to be a corrupted government.

No, the only reason, Dion is calling Layton a socialist is because he knows too well the liberals and the conservatives are like twins when it comes to economics. The truth about the liberals is that right-wing voters prefer Harper and that forces them to try to find support on their left. But they have never been a truly progressive party and won’t become one anytime soon.

It’s time for a change of opposition to one that will truly oppose tiring over-deregulated board rooms oriented economic ideology with ideas that directly benefit the majority of Canadians.

First off, I apologise for being out of action on the blogs for the last week or so. I had occasion to be thankful that we have a good, publically funded health system – we spent 3 nights in Emergency with my son, who ended up admitted for a couple of days.

We still haven’t got any flyers from any candidates, so I went out to pick up literature from the offices today, and speak to the candidates or their campaigners where possible.

I am going to start today with some background on the candidate I am going to be voting for, Peter Ferreira. I spoke with Mr. Ferreira for a short while today, and asked him what he was seeing as the major issues in Davenport. The answer: South of Bloor, the environment and cuts to arts and cultural programs. North of Bloor: Immigration and Employment. At the end of a long discussion about the state of immigration, and how it affects Davenport particularly, we ended up talking about what Davenport really needs.  Where do we, in Davenport, need money spent?

The list from the NDP:

Seniors services
Health Care
Transit
Infrastructure
Respect / Dignity for Seniors
A fair deal for “irregular” immigrants
Sorting out the immigration backlog
Crime, particularly drug related in some parts of the riding

The last item is apparent from the location of Mr. Ferreira’s (and 2 other candidates’) offices, all located in empty storefronts in the Bloor/Lansdowne area, which is in obvious need of some renewal. This was really brought home when Jack Layton made a flying visit to the office last week at the same time as the police were called to handle a man showing a handgun on Bloor St. near the office. It’s not that Mr. Layton was a target, but rather a statement about some urgent needs in Davenport.

Davenport also needs support for our newest Canadians, and those who wish to be reunited with the rest of their families in their new country.  We may not be the richest part of the province, but we are strong and hardworking.

What the campaign feels this election is about was stated best by a volunteer in the office, who said “We need to do a better job taking care of our neighbours”. As a concrete show of support for their real neighbours on Bloor, the campaign is collecting personal care products and socks for Savards Women’s Shelter. Savards houses women with mental health issues.  This is a part of being a neighbour.

As I rode away, I saw two women greet each other on the street with a hug, and overheard the conversation:
“Hey! How are you ?!”
“Hey, I’m not a whore anymore!!”
“Awesome!!”
This conversation is also a part of being a neighbour in a community that can celebrate renewal and support each other.  The NDP in Davenport would like to see this happen.

Just out in time for this election and available FREE online, The Harper Record, edited by my trusted friend Teresa Healy.

Here’s the summary from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives:

This book is one in a series of CCPA publications that have examined the records of Canadian federal governments during the duration of their tenure. As with earlier CCPA reports on the activities of previous governments while in office, this book gives a detailed account of the laws, policies, regulations, and initiatives of the Conservative minority government under Prime Minister Stephen Harper during its 32-month term from January 2006 to September 2008.

The 47 writers, researchers and analysts who have co-written this book probe into every aspect of the Harper minority government’s administration. From the economy to the environment, from social programs to foreign policy, from health care to tax cuts, from the Afghanistan mission to the tar sands, from free trade to deep integration, and to many other areas of this government’s record, the authors have dug out the facts and analyzed them.

The Harper Record was necessarily researched and written long before an election was called, but its publication does coincide with an election campaign and thus may help citizens to make informed choices about the future of their country. Regardless of the election outcome, its contents will continue to be relevant between elections. In detailing what a minority Conservative government really did, or failed to do, it may serve as a guide and model for future elections.

i’m approaching my stint here as a riding blogger as a chance to chronicle my own decision making process, simply put i need to decide whom i’m going to vote for.

to that end today i interviewed Sharon Howarth, the green party candidate for toronto-danforth. i was curious about to see how well she would communicate the green platform, what personally was driving her, and i was also somewhat curious as to her feelings about running against a national party leader.

Sharon is, as all politicians must be, friendly in person . i came away from my interview with her knowing that she really, honest and truly, believes in her candidacy. when i asked her about the whole “running against Jack” issue her attitude she seemed puzzled that i even bothered to ask. she believes that the big three established parties have had their chance and why not give the greens a chance, especially consider the wonderful policy platform they have (ok i’m paraphrasing here, but you get the gist)

on a policy front Sharon opened with the green economic policies, while she didn’t (to her credit) accuse the liberals of stealing the green policy platform (cough cough green shift cough cough) you can see just where the original thinking came from. taxes on consumption and pollution with corresponding reductions in income taxes, to me it sounds like a great idea… however i’m curious about specifics and on that front i left unsatisfied. in particular i wanted to know how this taxation shift would look from an average persons perspective, would the new taxes and the reduced income taxes happen at the same time or are we in for a painful transition period, do our pay-cheques get bigger before or after prices rise? (Sharon promised me answers to that question, i’ll post them as a comment when they arrive)

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While I appreciated the announcement of the Liberal Party’s proposal of a catastrophic drug plan, I’m tired of the meme “healthcare,” which is code for the medical and acute care industry.

WHY do parties and politicians insist on maintaining the fiction that health is equivalent to care-after-the-fact? Worse, that sickness prevention requires only the targeting of individual behaviour, such as addiction and eating and exercise habits?

There is a consistent message coming from Canada’s public health professionals, the World Health Organization and international agencies, and even from our own government’s Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. David Butler-Jones (whose report was quietly tucked away by the Harper government). It is this:

Social conditions crucially matter. And they can be deadly.

Investing more and more money on doctors, nurses, hospital beds, trauma care … is wrong-headed. First, our acute care system needs a management overall, rather than just more money thrown at it. Second – and more importantly – we need fewer SICK PEOPLE, fewer people made vulnerable to illness.

Poverty causes stress. Stress is a proven primary underlying cause of heart disease, diabetes, and other major and chronic illnesses.¹

Given these facts, which have been known for decades by researchers of the social determinants of health, it’s clear that poverty is the #1 killer and our largest health threat.

People need less stress in their lives. With less stress, we’ll be healthier. With fewer stressed people, Canada’s acute care system can undergo its own recovery.

Whether members of the medical and drug industries would be happy with fewer sick people is another matter.

¹ Google ‘poverty causes stress’ and you’ll be swamped with references. Also simply ’stress causes’; your search result will uncover a huge number of diseases linked to stress.

[Cross-posted at Challenging the Commonplace.

Note : le présent billet est plombé de mauvaise foi. Yeux chastes d’abstenir.

Si vous êtes de religion catholique et que vous voulez savoir comment Dieu voterait s’il le pouvait, la Conférence des évêques catholiques du Canada vient de publier un court guide de quatre pages (au format PDF) sur les prochaines élections.

La pauvreté, l’avortement, l’Afghanistan, l’Église vous dira ce qu’un bon catholique doit penser lorsqu’il ira cocher son bulletin de vote le 14 octobre…

Sault Ste. Marie’s Liberal candidate Paul Bichler obviously learned nothing about his party’s beer & popcorn moment during the last election. Bichler was parachuted in as an ‘all star candidate’ to knock off NDP incumbent Tony Martin. Local voters generally view Tony as “a nice guy,” but nowhere as effective in bringing money to the riding as his provincial counterpart Liberal MPP David Orazietti.

In responding descriptions of Tony as a nice guy, Bichler states: “I also had a nice guy serving me breakfast this morning. I don’t want him representing me in Ottawa.”

I’ve worked both American and Canadian campaigns as a communications strategist. I learned long ago not to let the rough and tumble of politics bother me personally. But I’m offended by Bichler’s comment.

During high school, I worked counter as a McDonald’s food server to help pay for university. The same with my wife. So did most of our friends at one time or another. It is good honest work (Which is why I would trust a server in political officer before I trusted a politician involved in Adscam to serve me breakfast). Serving food is something to which I and about half the population can relate. So branding Tony a food server actually works… for Tony. In contrast, few Canadians have experienced the perks of being elected a Liberal politicians, whose superiority Bichler is asserting over mere food servers.

Three years’ ago, I ran the communications strategy for Ken Walker, the local Conservative candidate. The first rule I instituted on Ken’s campaign was the following: “Never insult waiters/ waitresses, taxi drivers, or barbers/ hair dressers.” There’s lots of them within our community, and their job entails listening all day to people talk. I often find people working these trades more accurate political predictors than pollsters and political scientists.

The second rule follows closely: “Always tip them 10 percent more than expected.” Simply put, because they talk to people all day, you want them to carry a favorable impression (and hence talk favorably) about your candidate.

The third rule in our working-class riding became, once uttered: “Hammer home the beer & popcorn comment.” This was key to stopping the Liberals last time around, because it showed the smug disconnect between their leaders and the people they governed.

I find the Federal Conservative commercial saying Stéphane Dion is going to take away the the oh so generous 1200 dollars a year child care benefit for children misleading and offensive.

What Harper does not say in his attack adds:

1. The child care benefit is only good if you have children under six years old.

2. It only equals 100 a month which really doesn’t amount to much and that’s if you have a child under six.

3. Harper canceled 125,000 child care spaces and broke promises for creating 25,000 new spaces.

4. The Harper attack adds are misinformation because the Liberals are keeping the cheques. Stéphane Dion has repeatedly said that he will not eliminate the $1,200 child care benefit.

My younger sister is a single mom who has to support herself and three small children who are ages seven to ten. Harper’s child care benefit is absolutely no good to her and offers no relief to her and her children.

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I took in some NDP free pizza and an information session at the UofR campus on Friday September 12, at noon. In attendance were 3 federal NDP candidate including Stephen Moore who is contesting the riding I live in — Wascana (Regina south east corner). Of course, Ralph Goodale has long held onto this riding, and will no doubt be the favourite. I spoke with Stephen briefly as we bumped into each other walking to work, and I asked him, “I hear you’ve got a shot this election?” to which he replied something to the effect that he’ll be working hard to win it.

I found it interesting that there were about as many provincial NDP MLAs and nominees there as there were federal nominees. The questions covered mostly education and poverty, with touches upon agricultural input costs which are skyrocketing with few profit returns on the same scale. Here’s a YouTube vide of McCall:

Former Education minister Warren McCall made a good point (I thought) about the voters in the province apparently rewarding Stephen Harper with votes despite a broken $800 Million equalization promise for which McCall’s government launched a (now canceled) court challenge over. He seemed incredulous that voters would choose to do that, and I admit I feel the same way. It certainly feels like the Conservatives knew they could take Saskatchewan’s seats for granted, so they could spend our promised equalization money elsewhere, to curry favour in battlegrounds like Quebec.

The NDP candidates promised to increase corporate taxes, and decrease taxes on the average Canadian person. They also stressed a desire to ensure small farms can compete in the world market without intimidation from Cargill or any large corporation they view as bullying the Canadian Wheat Board into non-existence. There was criticism for Harper’s attacks on the Wheat Board, which they called “illegal”.