I predict the following electoral outcomes in northeastern Ontario tonight:

1 Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing: This will be one of the closest races in the region. Carol Hughes of the NDP by a nose.

2 Nickel Belt: Another close race but the NDP’s Claude Gravelle will take it at the end of a long night.

3 Nipissing-Timiskaming:  An easy win for Anthony Rota with Conservative Sinicrope a relatively distant second.

4 Parry Sound-Muskoka:  The closest race in the country last time should see Conservative Tony Clement waltz to victory.

5 Sault Ste. Marie:  Tony Martin of the NDP appears to be a shoe-in in the Sault although not without a challenge.

6 Sudbury:  Diane Marleau of the Liberals is likely to hold this seat but it will be a lot tighter than an incumbent should have to face.

7 Timmins-James Bay:  An easy win for Charlie Angus who appears to be making this into an NDP stronghold.

Totals:  CPC: 1 seat; LPC: 2 seats; NDP: 4 seats; GPC: 0 seats

I thought I’d have a day away from politics when I booked three seats on the SS Segwun for a cruise of Lake Muskoka today (October 8th). I wanted my cousins from Australia to see what Cottage Country looks like.

But when I heard on the news this morning that Britain was pouring $200 billion into taking over its biggest banks, and that central banks around the world were cutting interest rates, it was clear that no matter where I went, I wouldn’t escape the turmoil.

We boarded the Segwun at Gravenhurst just before noon, with a slight drizzle in the air. You couldn’t avoid hearing the election being discussed. Complimentary copies of the Toronto Star were being handed out:

Once on board, I chatted up a local man who was showing a German visitor the beauty of the Muskoka district. On the financial crisis, he had a comment of considerable wisdom: “Nobody knows what’s really going on.”

Gravenhurst is in the Parry Sound riding that Health Minister Tony Clement won by a razor thin margin in 2006. We had come up from Lagoon City, in the adjoining Simcoe North riding, where Tory Bruce Stanton is fighting to hold the seat against a strong challenge from Liberal Steve Clark.

As an indication of how winnable the Liberals think Simcoe North is, Stephane Dion has scheduled a visit to Orillia for Saturday morning.

A few tourists filled out the on-board complement on the Segwun. Here’s one:

On our return to Lagoon City, the news was all about Stephane Dion’s speech in Toronto today. His best line, apparently, was:  “We need to change course, we need to change the captain, we need to change the whole crew.”

Globe and Mail editorialist Adam Radwanski, blogging Dion’s speech, had this verdict: “The right speech to give right now.”

With the polls so volatile, it’s beginning to look like we’ll watch the election results from the edges of our chairs.

www.wildaboutwriting.com

The last two all-candidates meetings of this campaign will take place Thu 09 Oct. The hopefuls get an early start with a live debate on CKAT radio 600 AM. The program, hosted by Dean Belanger, gets under way at 08:00. The program will also be available via a live stream on the Internet. Voters can email questions to the candidates by mailing them to Belanger at CKAT in advance of the program.

Thursday evening, the Mattawa-Bonfield Chamber of Commerce will be hosting its all candidates meeting at the Champlain Theatre in Mattawa at 19:00.

All the candidates have confirmed for both events.

Going into the last week of a campaign, the buzz on the street is always your most important indicator of the outcome. When you work with the media, candidates and their campaigns will try and spin you a hundred different ways. So you need to hang out with real people who aren’t directly tied to campaigns. A good chunk of my weekend was spent talking to other people, from other parents at our kids’ Saturday afternoon activities to folks in the coffee shop to the nice people next to me in the pew Sunday morning.

The buzz is pretty much unanimous: Another Harper minority, another local win for Tony Martin (NDP). My gut feeling agrees with the latter. As one poster’s better half, a fellow parent, put it to me at the Y: “Tony is a safe bet. At least you know what he will do, which is nothing. Nobody is sure about the other [candidates].”

I’m not so sure it won’t be a Harper majority; the late NDP surge – they’re now in a statistical tie with the Liberals – may allow Tories to come up the middle in ridings where they otherwise weren’t competitive.

So barring some major faux pas this week, I’m predicting a Tony Martin win locally and a slim Tory majority nationally.

In speaking with other voters over the weekend, here’s what I found most interesting: They’re still asking the same questions about each candidate that they were asking when the writ was dropped.

Here are the questions:

- What has Tony Martin (NDP) done for this riding?

- Who is Cameron Ross (Conservative)?

- Why is Paul Bichler (Liberal), who has made Southern Ontario his home for the past few years, now running in the Sault?

- Why vote Luke MacMichael (Green), Cory Mcleod (First Nations Peoples Party) or Mike Taffarel (Marxist-Leninist) when their chances of winning are minute?

Note to individual campaigns: You have only a week left, so don’t waste time shooting the messenger. Answer the question for voters. They’re the ones who will decide your fate on October 14, not annoying Internet pundits like me.

Anyway, here are my predicted numbers for the Sault Ste. Marie riding:

1 – Tony Martin – 17,000
2 – Cameron Ross – 14,000
3 – Paul Bichler – 11,000
4 – Luke McMichael – 1,500
5 – Cory Mcleod – 500
6 – Mike Taffarel – 150

How did I arrive at these numbers? That’s easy. I asked my four-year-old, who is much more current in these matters than her old man.

One question that keeps coming up locally is how does Tony Martin keep winning elections when just under two-thirds of local voters opt for other candidates and the popular perception is that he has not delivered anything to this riding. The short answer is as follows: he’s a political care bear. He shows up at opportune times from his cloudy kingdom to tell you he cares.

But here’s a longer explanation. I agree with Mac Headrick, a local NDP columnist with whom I have the pleasure of writing at SooToday.com. You can check out Mac’s columns here. Mac has repeatedly told supporters of other parties to quit whining about Tony’s wins and take an honest look at how Tony wins them.

Saying Tony comes up the middle because the Sault is an NDP riding just doesn’t work any more. At one time, yes, the Sault was a NDP power base. But the local NDP base strength has been eroding now for some years. Need proof? Look no further than the Sault’s MPP, David Orazietti.

A Tory collapse can account for Orazietti’s 2003 provincial win, in which he defeated NDP incumbent Tony Martin. (This would set the stage for Tony to enter the federal race a year later and narrowly win the seat from Liberal incumbent Carmen Provenzano). A similar Tory collapse helped Orazietti retain his seat for the the Liberals in the 2007 Ontario election, but Orazietti also increased his percentage of popular vote in 2007 while driving that of the NDP down by six percentage points, to 26.4 percent. By way of comparison, Tony pulled in 38.9 percent of the vote during the 2006 federal election – a difference of over 12 percentage points from what the provincial NDP candidate, Jeff Arbus, pulled in the 2007 provincial election. And in the raw vote count, Tony doubled Arbus. Polls show Tony pulling in similar numbers this election.

These are Tony votes, not NDP votes. These are people voting for the local candidate and not the party. So why do they vote Tony?

Numerous polls and studies, from different political parties and non-partisan groups, in different geo-political areas, and independent of each other, more-or-less come up with the same results when determining how people vote. It’s something like this:

- 60% – Does the candidate care about me and the community?
- 30% – Policy
- 10% – Other

Like it or not, this is what comes up time and time again. This is the difference between Tony’s numbers and those brought in by Jeff Arbus. It’s Tony’s reputation as “a nice guy, who cares about his constituents.” It’s the little things Tony has done to make himself visible in this community, and behind-the-scenes, like helping the elderly fill out passport applications. He doesn’t bring in any big money to the riding, other popular local politicians cannot rely upon him, but everyone in the riding has a personal story about Tony personally helping some disadvantaged relative maneuvre through governmental red tape.

The perception may or may not be true in real life, but it’s the popular perception. And like it or not, people vote according to their perception.

The same is true about the popular perception about the Sault’s other local politicians who keep getting re-elected by large margins:

- Orazietti: Cares about the community and its future. Look at the money he brings in.

- Councillor Frank Manzo: Cares about the average taxpayer. Only politician to return people’s phone calls. Will help you even when your own councillor is not getting back to you.

- Mayor John Rowswell: Has the personality of grumpy bear being woken up during hibernation, but he cares about this community and its people and is just trying to move us forward. So people take his side when he feuds with local reporters, city administrators, and other local politicians.

For Liberal candidate Paul Bichler or Conservative candidate Cameron Ross to win, each needs to establish himself, as soon as possible during this last week of campaigning, as the candidate who most cares about the Sault and its people. I have no doubt that this is the case in real life, but it needs to be popular perception. When people don’t know enough about a candidate, they don’t know if that candidate cares or not.

Which is why Tony Martin keeps winning.

The riding of Nickel Belt, in northeastern Ontario, comprises a large swath of ground surrounding Sudbury Riding on three sides: the south, east and north. Nickel Belt is bordered to the west by Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing, to the northeast by Timmins—James Bay, to the east by Nipissing—Timiskaming and to the south by Parry Sound—Muskoka. The riding was first constituted for the general election of 1953. Since then, the Liberals have won the riding twelve times and the New Democrats have taken it six times. Most recently, Liberal Ray Bonin has held the riding since 1993 but Bonin has retired and there is no incumbent this time.

The NDP candidate is Claude Gravelle, a retired machinist in his third run for the prize. Last time, he was defeated by Bonin by just over 2000 votes.

The Conservatives, who came a distant third last time, are being represented by Ian McCracken, an office equipment salesman. This is McCracken’s first attempt at seeking elected office.

The Liberal hopeful this time is Louise Portelance, a former Sudbury municipal councillor and Deputy Mayor. Portelance failed in her 2003 bid for the mayor’s office in Sudbury. This is her first foray into federal politics.

Steve Rutchinski is the Marxist-Leninist candidate. This is Rutchinski’s third consecutive attempt at capturing the seat. His best showing was 51 votes in the 2004 election.

Fred Twilley carries the Green Party banner into the fray this time. Twilley is a retired engineer and this is his first attempt at elected office. The Greens finished fifth in the last campaign with fewer than 1000 votes.

Independent Yves Villeneuve is seeking the seat in his first attempt. Villeneuve speaks in socially conservative terms: his website states that “Canada is founded on the supremacy of God.”

This is most definitely a two-horse race. Both Gravelle and Portelance have been pounding the pavement in the riding for several months. The result could be close this time but I’d venture that Gravelle has the early lead and momentum on his side. Whoever takes this seat, it may be a long night on the 14th as we wait for the last polls to return.

The candidates got together Tuesday evening (30 Sep) for their most important debate of the campaign. The North Bay and District Chamber of Commerce debate typically attracts about 300 people, and last night was no exception. In addition, the debate is carried live on local television and radio. This year, for the first time, it was also available on streaming audio on the internet. The local cable station tends to replay it, in its entirety, every three or four days, as well, so this is make or break time for candidates.

Instead of trying to recount the minutiae of the proceedings, I’ll try to summarise the main thrusts and parries of each candidate.

The New Democratic Party candidate in this riding is Dianna Allen. Allen turned in a solid performance, appearing well briefed on the issues. She managed to score a major point when the Liberal candidate went on at some length about a private member’s bill he had introduced. Allen managed to cut in and pointed out that the bill was actually copied from an earlier bill introduced by New Democrat Tony Martin. Allen scored well with the crowd when she attacked the government, especially with her comments about the secretive nature of the Conservatives and their refusal to allow for public scrutiny of the negotiations around the North American Union and the Security and Prosperity Partnership.

Craig Bridges represented the Green Party in the debate. The youngest face on the slate, Bridges nevertheless appeared more than competent in handling the various questions asked of the candidates. His passion for the environment shone through as he asked the crowd, again and again, not to be deceived by the government’s admonition that the false choice is a strong economy or a healthy environment. Bridges also scored solid hits against theLiberals by pointing out that, despite their attractive rhetoric, they failed to get the job done when they had the chance.

Dr Andrew Moulden is a physician who has returned to North Bay to represent the Canadian Action Party. Although Moulden left no doubt about his passion and his commitment to the electorate, his major challenge appeared to be the somewhat unitary focus of his campaign. At the end of the night, it appeared that every question elicited a similar response that was clearly meant to demonise big Pharma. The candidate went on at length about vaccines and his view that they are “killing our children”. Moulden succeeded in scoring a few points with the crowd when he waxed eloquent about the Conservative government’s Bill C-51 which, in his words, will “kill thousands of people by denying them the natural medicines they need to cure disease”. The crowd also appeared mildly receptive to his criticisms of the international banking “conspiracy”, reviving, for the elders and historians in the crowd, many of the old Social Credit positions on debt and debt financing.

The Liberal candidate is the incumbent Anthony Rota. Rota’s been the MP for the riding since its inception in 2004. His experience and preparation showed and he was definitely the most polished candidate on the podium. Interestingly, although he did defend the Green Shift, he did so while barely even mentioning the name of Liberal leader Stéphane Dion. Rota was running on Rota’s record and, if the overtly partisan crowd was any indication, he was well positioned to do so. Rota managed to score a big point against Conservative Joe Sinicrope when he said that one “catches more bees with honey than with vinegar” and not by bullying people like another person who “I won’t name but who is well known to” Sinicrope. At one point, the largely Liberal crowd became nearly giddy when Rota waved a document he claimed to have just received through an access to information request that clearly put the lie to Sinicrope’s constant denials that the Conservatives had cut any money from the FedNor regional economic development budget.

Joe Sinicrope, the Conservative candidate, was clearly loaded for bear and his sights were set squarely on the Liberals. In sum, he really provided nothing new; every one of his comments stuck very closely to the tried and true Conservative talking points that we hear in the nightly news. Sinicrope elicited some sparks from the crowd when he gave a solemn promise to see that the local 3000 metre airport runway would be repaved by the feds, a commitment the Conservative Finance Minister refused to give when he passed through the riding just days ago. Sinicrope also was the brunt of a few hostile jeers when he was asked what his position was on therapeutic abortion; he failed to directly answer the question, choosing instead to tell the crowd what Harper had said at some time in the past. Outside of the debate venue, the riding is rife with rumours about internal strife within the Conservative riding association. A person close to the campaign suggested that “the old guard are staying home this time”.

The absolutely unacceptable moderating job turned in by the Chamber 1st Vice-President Derek Shogren was a major distraction for those who came out to hear the various candidates although, for the committed Liberal or Conservative supporters in the crowd, it may not have been quite as overt. On several occasions, Shogren said “I’m going to ask Mr Rota and Mr Sinicrope to answer this and then we have to move along.” After the debate, two of the candidates mentioned to me that they felt they’d been passed over and had been short-changed in the time to respond, sentiments which appeared to me to be justified.

In summary, no single candidate scored the knockout punch they may have been looking for. Rota, as the incumbent and front runner, emerged relatively unscathed which is probably what his campaign had hoped for. In my last post, I indicated that I feel this riding is Rota’s to lose. Nothing I saw on Tuesday evening changed that opinion. Unless Rota makes a serious gaffe, he’ll walk to victory on the 14th.

One of the big disappointments of the campaign, given all the controversies over the past year, is the lack of discussion by the parties about our democratic freedoms slipping away. I am speaking of course about Canada’s so-called human rights commissions and their attempt to censor ordinary Canadians.

This isn’t just about Mark Steyn, Ezra Levant, and Maclean’s Magazine. From small pub owners with heart conditions spending tens of thousands of dollars and potentially losing their business for enforcing a ban on marijuana smoking, to Christian pastors being silenced from the pulpit, to doctors being investigated for declining to operate when they lack the medical background to do so safely, Canada’s human rights commissions have created a culture of fear and distrust among ordinary Canadians

Canadians should be concerned with stripping away of our freedoms and civil liberties, which are the foundation of every vibrant democracy. With the federal election underway, I can think of no better time to discuss government censorship and Canada’s human rights commissions. It is time for our politicians to show leadership and insure the rights of every Canadian are respected.

Which is why Kathy Shaidle and I have today released a book on Canada’s human rights commissions, entitled Tyranny of Nice. Mark Steyn has kindly written the introduction. You can find out more about the book by visiting TyrannyOfNice.com.

Barring a political miracle (and they do happen from time to time), Liberal candidate Paul Bichler has basically been knocked out of the race for Sault Ste. Marie. So the final two weeks of the campaign are pitting NDP incumbent Tony Martin against Conservative challenger Cameron Ross. Given the makeup of this riding, which seldom favors Tories, and Tory infighting coupled with Cameron’s low profile over the past few years, I’m surprised Cameron is as strong as he is.

However, Cameron’s campaign is being boyed by the strong ABT (anyone but Tony) sentiment that has set in over the past few years. Many voters feel that Tony has not delivered much to the riding, unlike his provincial counterpart Liberal MPP David Orazietti. Yet many voters are still reluctant to cast their vote with Cameron, who hails from the riding’s rural border and is not well-known in the city.

Having said that, here’s a few thoughts on the local race:

1 – The Tories will try and frame the local election as a referendum on Tony’s representation as a fourth-party member, while the NDP will try and frame this as a referendum on the Harper government.

2 – Cameron is clearly winning the sign war. His signs are all over the place, in many different sizes, and in large numbers. There’s a psychological advantage to this.

3 – Tony is winning the air war. He’s all over the media, appealing to the working-class vote.

4 – The ground war is critical to both. For Cameron because the biggest criticism from average voters is that they don’t know him, he’s not visible. For Tony because the biggest criticism is that he has not delivered big things to the Sault like Orazietti, a member of government. Thus Cameron must introduce himself door-to-door and at major social function.s On the other hand, Tony must meet with voters one-on-one to lever his “nice guy” image into an argument it’s the “little things” he does as MP. Both campaign managers Glenn Gustafson for Tony and Ian Shields for Cameron, are experienced ground warriors and competent at directing a ground war.

5 – Locally, I haven’t seen any polls. However, the taxi drivers with whom I have spoken believe Cameron is going to win. The hairdressers, on the other hand, are telling me Tony will get back in. The waitresses seem split. So the buzz on the street is inconclusive. Everyone agrees, however, that the Liberals have been knocked out.

6 – Tony’s biggest danger is Orazietti, who has attacked him a couple times last week and called upon local voters to elect a politician that can work with the government to deliver more to the Sault. Interestingly enough, Orazietti hasn’t actually endorsed the Liberal candidate or Cameron. The other problem for Tony is that Orazietti is much more credible on the issues where he hits him – local jobs and the economy. In fact, Tony was our provincial MPP for several terms before Orazietti knocked him off on these issues.

A number of local Dippers are complaining about Orazietti’s interventions during the campaign. This won’t go far with average voters since Tony made multiple interventions for the NDP candidate during the last provincial campaign.

7 – Cameron’s biggest danger is remaining an unknown among average voters in the city. This allows Tony to frame the debate, maximizing Tony’s incumbent’s advantage. Basically, voters will often choose the politician they know personally over one they never met.

Nipissing—Timiskaming Riding is in the southern portion of Northeastern Ontario. The major population centre is the City of North Bay. The riding covers an area from Algonquin Park to the head of Lake Temiskaming. It’s bordered to the west by Nickle Belt Riding, to the east by the Ottawa River and Lake Temiskaming, to the southwest by Parry Sound—Muskoka, to the southeast by Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke and to the north by Timmins—James Bay.

Although the riding was first created for the 2004 election, about 80% of it comprises the prior Nipissing Riding. Since 2004, it’s been represented by Liberal Anthony Rota. The riding’s main predecessor, Nipissing, was pretty solidly Liberal, federally, since Confederation, with only a few exceptions.

Rota is running for re-election this time and he’s going to be tough to beat, especially given Northern Ontario’s seeming propensity to re-elect incumbents. His campaign got off to an early start in the sign war, with Rota signs springing up the day the election was called.

The Conservatives are represented by North Bay lawyer Joe Sinicrope. The interesting twist to this story is that Sinicrope once sought the Liberal nomination and was defeated in that quest by the same Anthony Rota who now holds the seat. Despite some delay in rolling out their visible campaign, the Conservatives now appear to be running in full gear.

The New Democrat hopeful this time around is Dianna Allen. Allen is a retired nurse who currently lives in Parry Sound—Muskoka riding. Although Allen was nominated a little late, several days into the campaign, she got off to a quick start with daily interviews and news releases in the first few days after her nomination. Since then, there has been somewhat of a silence emanating from the New Democrat campaign.

The Green Party is being represented by North Bay businessman and community activist Craig Bridges. The Greens are definite players in the sign war, for the first time, although their signs tend to be understated and strategically located rather than broadcast as the other parties have them.

In terms of the sign war, the Liberals definitely have the edge on public spaces but also on private property. The NDP have not yet deployed any signs.

This week, the candidates were at Canadore College/Nipissing university for a student-sponsored all-candidates meeting. Unfortunately, I was unable to attend but I can say from personal experience that the Greens and the New Democrats usually are better-received at this debate than at any of the others. The big-money debate, so to speak, in this riding is the North Bay Chamber of Commerce debate. I’ll try to attend that one, if I can, and report back on it.

In summary, look for Rota to retain this riding. I predict the margin will be similar to what it was last time.

Perhaps I should switch my affiliation from non-partisan to neoRhino. Anyway, 10 days in and I’m already bored by the Canadian election. This led me to imagine how the leaders debate might play out if Canadians party leaders to speak in Dr. Seuss. Here’s what I came up with:

**************

“Dion is no leader,
He’s out of touch too,
Come mid-October,
Please vote Tory blue”

“Harper is scary,
He’s Dubya’s shill
Vote for me Liberals,
I need your goodwill.”

“Stephen and Stephane
In the East and the West,
But here in Quebec,
Vote seperatist.”

“My right-wing opponents,
Oh how they rave,
But vote for the Dippers,
And I promise to shave.”

“Four leaders in suits,
Four men, all irate,
Vote Green this election,
And watch the debate.”

********************

Feel free to post your own version in the comments below.

Here is the Sault Ste. Marie riding, none of the five local candidates are particularly strong. NDP incumbent Tony Martin wins elections because the NDP have an experienced machine locally and his opponents tend to run weak campaigns. Whenever Tony has faced a strong opponent, such as Liberal David Orazietti provincially, he’s lost by a landslide – twice (once head-to-head while Tony was the provincial incumbent, and a second time through Tony’s surrogate Jeff Arbus).

However, Conservative candidate Cameron Ross is seen as largely absent, which favors Tony. The Sault is still a working class riding and thus impossible to win without a strong presence among the working class and ethnic communities. Similarly, after promising a star candidate, the Liberals parachuted Paul Bichler into this riding. I’m sorry, but appearing on CBC’s Dragon’s Den does not a celebrity make – rather it’s an answer to a trivia question. Yes, Paul grew up in the riding, but he’s been living in Southern Ontario for the past few years. As for Luke Macmichael, the Green candidate, he’s got potential; but both he and his party are still new (dare I say ‘green’?) to the political limelight.

Finally, there is Cory Mcleod of the First Peoples National Party, who is a well-known organizer within the local Anishinabek community. While the party needs to do more groundwork before it can take the riding, the potential for inroads is there. Our local Anishinabek community is known for producing hard-working leaders, including hockey coach Ted Nolan. And Cory also has a natural constituency outside of the Anishinabek community in that he’s an avid hunter and proponent of responsible firearm ownership. Our riding has an unusually high number of hunters and recreational shooters, who are frustrated with having to bear the brunt of laws enacted for Toronto’s violent crime problem. Tougher anti-gun legislation is one of the issues that cost the Liberals this riding during the last federal election.

(more…)

Sault Ste. Marie’s Liberal candidate Paul Bichler obviously learned nothing about his party’s beer & popcorn moment during the last election. Bichler was parachuted in as an ‘all star candidate’ to knock off NDP incumbent Tony Martin. Local voters generally view Tony as “a nice guy,” but nowhere as effective in bringing money to the riding as his provincial counterpart Liberal MPP David Orazietti.

In responding descriptions of Tony as a nice guy, Bichler states: “I also had a nice guy serving me breakfast this morning. I don’t want him representing me in Ottawa.”

I’ve worked both American and Canadian campaigns as a communications strategist. I learned long ago not to let the rough and tumble of politics bother me personally. But I’m offended by Bichler’s comment.

During high school, I worked counter as a McDonald’s food server to help pay for university. The same with my wife. So did most of our friends at one time or another. It is good honest work (Which is why I would trust a server in political officer before I trusted a politician involved in Adscam to serve me breakfast). Serving food is something to which I and about half the population can relate. So branding Tony a food server actually works… for Tony. In contrast, few Canadians have experienced the perks of being elected a Liberal politicians, whose superiority Bichler is asserting over mere food servers.

Three years’ ago, I ran the communications strategy for Ken Walker, the local Conservative candidate. The first rule I instituted on Ken’s campaign was the following: “Never insult waiters/ waitresses, taxi drivers, or barbers/ hair dressers.” There’s lots of them within our community, and their job entails listening all day to people talk. I often find people working these trades more accurate political predictors than pollsters and political scientists.

The second rule follows closely: “Always tip them 10 percent more than expected.” Simply put, because they talk to people all day, you want them to carry a favorable impression (and hence talk favorably) about your candidate.

The third rule in our working-class riding became, once uttered: “Hammer home the beer & popcorn comment.” This was key to stopping the Liberals last time around, because it showed the smug disconnect between their leaders and the people they governed.