As most suspected, Liberal incumbent Peter Milliken was re-elected to a seventh term last night over rivals Brian Abrams (Conservative), Rick Downes (NDP), and Eric Walton (Green). The surprise of the evening, however, was how close the race was. While Milliken still won by a somewhat comfortable margin of over 3,500 votes and 6.5%, this is still far removed from the over 12,000 votes and nearly 20% margin he won by in 2006, which many thought was an off-year for him.

This can be credited to a few things:

1) The strong Abrams Campaign: Abrams’ campaign was strong right out of the gate and had been active since January getting his name out there and attending events. I had the chance to see him on two occasions during this election, and it’s clear he is also quite impressive in person. He had a strong presence by winning the sign war, a billboard and radio campaign, and occasional media coverage (though some was pretty harsh as well).

2) The demographics of Kingston: Although Kingston has leaned Liberal for quite some time, there are demographics that trend towards the Conservatives. Lots of protestant suburban voters, seniors, military voters, rural voters and high-net-worth retirees all trend towards the Conservatives, especially in this election. This should account for much of the switch from Liberal to CPC.

3) Milliken himself: Milliken has taken quite a beating in the media, and more importantly in the coffeeshops, with his musings about not serving a full term if not given the speaker’s position again. He has claimed in the media that it was “misinformation”, but in my humble opinion, Milliken was given every opportunity to say outright “I WILL serve a full term” and never said it outright. This appears to have been a factor.

So what does the future hold for this riding? I can’t imagine Milliken will be the Speaker again. He was given the Speaker’s position because the CPC numbers in the 120’s made them concerned about losing the one vote and still being able to pass legislation with the support of the NDP. With 143 seats, this won’t be a factor anymore, and if the Conservatives are intent on governing with a stronger mandate (and one day a majority), they’ll need a Conservative member as Speaker. This will put the heat on Milliken and test whether he really was after only the Speaker’s chair or not.

As for Abrams, his strong showing positions him very well for another run. Whether it will be a byelection when Milliken retires, or as part of another likely election in the next couple of years, he will most certainly be a candidate again and must be considered a likely frontrunner if Milliken isn’t on the Grit ticket.

After 20 years, Kingston politics may have just entered the ‘exciting’ category once again.

PS – full disclosure, I voted for the Greens’ Eric Walton.

So, the Kingston Whig Standard supposedly took a oujai board to Sir John A. MacDonald’s grave and asked for some election predictions.

 I can’t find it online, and didn’t actually read the article (yes, they printed this, it wasn’t just a drunken journalistic escapade), but a reporter told me today that good ol’ John A. predicted 4 Green ridings. They had their eyes closed, they didn’t touch it, and John. A. predicted 4 Green ridings.

I can tell you now, I think two of them will be Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound and Guelph. Central Nova has a shot, Vancouver Centre has a shot, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country has a shot. There could be a ton of flukes and a ton of students who aren’t counted in polls (because its still illegal to poll cell phones, thank God) who could give surprise results if they actually get themselves out to the polls.

But John A. says four… it’s probably more than DemocraticSpace will give us.

The financial meltdown has taken on epic proportions. The thought  is that it can be fixed quickly by intense government intervention. And I mean intense.  The verdict is not in. Not long ago talk of such intervention would have been laughed out of court by the market wizards . I don’t hear much laughter now. Not much mea culpa either.  What about climate change?  Strong government intervention in the tax/regulation system   in support of carbon reducation  is derided right now  by the same market wizards  who said let the markets do their thing as they bulked up on toxic securities based on predatory lending.  Looks like someone should ask them to eat their shirt? Anyone out there in this election doing that? If they are maybe we should vote for them?

At the beginning of the campaign it looked as though former Liberal MP Marc Godbout had a good chance of retaking the traditional Liberal riding of Ottawa-Orleans. Incumbent Royal Galipeau had taken the riding away from him by a small margin the last time, helped by the fact that the NDP ran a strong candidate who won more than 15% of the vote. This time the NDP has been practically invisible, not announcing a candidate until the very last minute. Godbout should have been able to count on a significant proportion of those votes returning to the Liberal fold. The Greens are running a stronger candidate than the NDP and will probably outpoll them.

But a recent poll (small number polled) indicates that Galipeau has a commanding lead over Godbout. Godbout appears to be relatively competetive among the francophone minority (one-third) but lagging behind Galipeau among the anglophones. I find this surprising. Could it be that Liberal infighting is holding Godbout back? Would they have been wiser to pick an alternate candidate for this campaign,e.g. the former NDP candidate, Mark Leahy

Some 100 supporters greeted Ed Broadbent as he arrived at party headquarters from teaching his course on citizens and democracy at Queens University. Rick Downes, the Kingston and the Islands NDP candidate, introduced Broadbent. Downes said that Broadbent was the face of the NDP when he grew up. Broadbent said that the NDP has grown as it has attracted people from other parties. Even his own father, who was a Tory, saw the light in the 60s and joined the NDP.

The social and economic problems we face now, Broadbent said in a rousing speech, started with the Liberals. In 1993 they were facing deficits and, unlike Clinton who raised taxes on the most wealthy and did not cut programs, Chretien slashed the programs that have yet to recover, he said. He ran in 2000 because he saw the effects of what the Liberals had done. When revenues returned tax breaks for the wealthy were given, the debt was paid down, but there was no action on many fronts, especially health and the environment.

Even now 7000 people in Ottawa are waiting for affordable housing. There is no national housing strategy. Why should anyone vote Liberal now, he said. He supported Jack Layton as a candidate early on as he was aware of his activism in Toronto on the housing and environmental fronts: “Jack was there on the environment before the Greens”. Broadbent said targeted tax cuts are needed in combination with an industrial strategy. Simply cutting corporate taxes, as the Tories are doing, does not help the economy, he said. He pointed to sectors like forest products and automotive as needing to be targeted. In closing he said that the NDP has had the best record of fiscal management. One need only look at the provinces where there have been NDP governments.

The streets are filthy, most students are nowhere to be seen, and all the other Kingston residents seem to be in a terrible mood.

 We just had a man (at least 55) walk past our campaign office while flipping us the bird.

 Now that’s constructive criticism. Maybe it was Don Rogers…

Green Party leader, Elizabeth May, stopped in Brockville as part of her whistle-stop tour across Canada. Because of this, the Greens have scored their third straight front page article in the Saturday edition of the Recorder and Times.

 Two articles: ‘May touts tax cuts as part of carbon plan‘ and ‘He’s the campaign manager, but he won’t be casting ballot‘ were in the paper today.

 The Leeds-Grenville Liberals opened their campaign office today with former deputy prime minister John Manley.

 The NDP and the Conservatives remain relatively quiet during the campaign. Gord is playing it safe during the debates and Steve is up to the same old stuff replacing Jokes with substance (which works).

Going to challenge the recent prediction made by DemocraticSPACE in Leeds-Grenville. The NDP will not hold on to their previous 15% and will likely finish around 11-13%. Although Marjory and the local Liberals are running a weak campaign, they DO have a base and will likely capture around 20% of the vote. The Conservatives are running a very ‘conservative’ campaign. Are not paying much attention to the sign war (no more then the liberals and Greens), not responding to critisism at the debates, and have not sent out a mass mailout yet (unlike last go round). Look for them to get about 55-56%. The Greens are running a much stronger campaign, and traditionally poll ahead of the party. I suspect the Greens will keep their previous third place finish in 2007, and the Green Party leader will be the only party leader to visit the riding this time around. look to the Greens to capture 11 to 14%.

In a Kingston This Week interview Rick Downes said that he has heard at the doorstep that people were worried that Harper would do to Canada what Harris did to Ontario and that the local Conservative candidate Brian Abrams was not a “Red Tory” but a Harris-Harper conservative. Downes claimed he was picking up support from Red Tories. He also said he had detected disaffected Liberals–those who think that it is time for a change in local representation. In a campaign news release Brian Abrams has challenged Peter Milliken to come to the North End of Kingston to explain why his party would add a tax on everything from groceries to home heating and to admit that the carbon tax will cost countless jobs. Meanwhile, there seems to be a dearth of all candidates meetings in the city. Candidates are talking to the press and to small groups of voters but not face to face with each other.

Green Party candidate Elizabeth May brought her whistle stop campaign to Kingston this morning. A lively crowd awaited the VIA train from Toronto and the lights in the distance seemed to be it. Instead a rush of freight engines swept by — with the VIA train soon behind — setting the stage for the energetic arrival on the platform a few minutes later of the candidate. Some 50 local Greens, in their green shirts, with Kingston candidate Eric Walton and Lanark-Frontenac-Lennox & Addington candidate Chris Walker, greeted May enthusiastically. She alighted carrying a bouquet of dried sunflowers which she waved at the crowd and launched into a rousing speech.

The whistle stop campaign she contrasted with the large carbon foot prints of her airborne rivals. She said she had seen up close the great sweep of the country and the vital role VIA plays in serving it. The Mulroney Tories had slashed VIA in the past. Increased support for VIA would happen if Greens were in power, she said. May said she would be traveling on from Montreal to Halifax and that all along the way she had been greeted by enthusiastic crowds and that the whistlestops had given her a chance to go to places no federal leader had ever been before. VIA she said had been very patient with her at these whistlestops but she said it was time to go and gave a final wave of the sunflowers as the doors closed and the train was off to its next stop in Brockville no doubt to be welcomed by another group of supporters.

For a few days now, my Facebook update has been  ”Amanda doesn’t particularly want to come to the defense of Duceppe, but is Jason Kenney REALLY allowed to call anyone intolerant?” I haven’t changed it because, well, the irony still shocks me.

 The irony of Jason Kenney calling someone intolerant made me choke on the water I was drinking when I read it. Seriously. This is the same man who assures us that gays have the right to marry, as long as its to someone of the opposite sex. The man who Harper appointed Secretary of State for Multiculturalism just so he could giggle to himself when Jason opened his mouth and comments about “overheated Sikhs” came out. (Why Harper still lets this guy speak and has gagged everyone elese is beyond me.)

 But anywho, that’s enough Kenney bashing for the day. I’m sure there’s already enough of that out there. The point is, that this was up on my Facebook.

 One of those stupid message things just popped up from someone that I attended Forum for Young Canadians with over two years ago (let’s see if he explores the Blogosphere). 

bloc is searching for a story

its an obvious conservative victory

I know this guy is hardcore big-C Conservative, because, well he is, and his dad is (was?) a Conservative MP.  My first thought was, “Holy insecurity, you can’t handle a Facebook bash of arguably your most pathetic Cabinet Minister? Let it go!” But I left that, and was about to write back something a little Bloc bashing, something I’m sure we had some common ground on, “lol” at and move on with our politiked little lives.  And then he wrote this. 

and unfortunately the green party will be left with no seats…

Don’t troll me. We haven’t spoken since Forum and you troll me? You actually are that insecure?

 Whether you think the Greens will win seats or not, the fact is we’re a presence in this campaign and the possibility of us is scaring people. So your trolling doesn’t bother me, because I know that something we’ve done has triggered fear in you. Crazy Greens with their platform that you didn’t bother to read but will assume is full of socialist lies are shaking up the system. They have a voice and it hurts my ears!

Your attacks inspire us. A misquote of Elizabeth May is a mention of Elizabeth May. It’s finally great just to have some attention.

 PS: Need more Jason Kenney bashing? Not quite sure why you should always laugh at the name, “Jason Kenney”?
How about a Maclean’s liveblog? Once you’re there, search for Andrew Coyne’s videoblog on the same press conference. Or how about Rick Mercer’s story of the creation of JasonKenney.org?
They’re both good times.

It shocks me how many people don’t realize that advance polls exist. I’ve been trying to promote Youth Voter Day (October 3rd) to my friends and fellow students. The Young Greens of Canada launched and invited all of the other parties to participate in Youth Voter Day as an initiative to try and encourage early student voting.
Let’s face it, October 14th is a mighty inconvenient day to vote for anyone. Add a few midterms worth of studying to that mix, and even I might consider not voting if there were no other option available.

But what else is Elections Canada to do? They sent out information about voting, registering, all the polls, special ballot, and voter ID at the polls. They have representatives on campus here at Queen’s. They can only give you so much information before it just becomes a waste of resources. Admittedly, they’re kind of busy and caught off guard right now.

In other news, Kingston and the Islands campaigns are facing some dilemmas for the weekend (it’s the infamous homecoming weekend at Queen’s). We’re not delivering signs that were ordered this week to any areas around the student village until Monday at the earliest, and I’m encouraging everyone I know to take their sign in for the weekend. All we need are “Eric Walton” signs scattered across the city along with a new layer of broken glass.

This Sunday there will be an open debate for the Candidates in Ottawa-Centre. If you’re available, RSVP for your spot and hear what each of the candidates has to say. Details follow:

Sunday September 28, 2008
7:00 p.m.
Churchill Recreation Centre
345 Richmond Road
(entrance off of Churchill Avenue, just north of Richmond Road)

An open forum for the Federal Candidates and
residents of Ottawa Centre

Moderator: CBC Radio journalist Carolyn Adolph

Come ask your questions to the Federal Candidates of Ottawa Centre.
Seating is limited. Please arrive early. Doors open at 6:30 p.m.

Brought to you by the neighbourhood community associations representing Hampton-Iona, Hintonburg, Westboro, Westboro Beach and West Wellington.
For more information, please contact:

Judith of Hampton Iona Community Group at 725-9147 or lacutler@magma.ca;
Hintonburg Community Association at www.hintonburg.com
Westboro Community Association at www.westborovillage.ca
Westboro Beach Community Association at www.westborobeach.org
West Wellington Community Association at www.westwellington.ca

For now. And that’s great, I feel for them and I don’t think he should be deported.

But I would really appreciate it if the government would stop trying to send my talented and hardworking friends from Rwanda and Iraq back where they came from as well.

 Earlier today, another blogger commented that none of the leaders will address immigration out of fear of public backlash.

Yeah… it’s time everyone got over that fear. This immigration system is something we need to deal with now.

While pretty much the entire country can agree that there needs to be some amendments, I can’t say Harper’s direction is the one we should take. I understand where he’s coming from, and the emotions that drive these amendments, but I simply cannot agree with them.

I believe in rehabilitative justice. Not the kind of rehabilitative justice that allows Karla Homolka to walk out of prison with a free university education, but the kind that would prepare prisoners for release and put them on a program to literally pay back their debt to society by working off some or all of the money spent on their imprisonment.

So, I disagree with Harper’s view that harsher penalities will deter crime. This is often used to advocate the death sentence, and as we can see with the United States, it simply doesn’t work that way. Violent criminals either act on compulsion, so they don’t think about the sentences, or they act with deliberation to avoid being caught, in which case they can obviously rationalize their need to be violent is greater than the risk of whatever punishment could be brought upon them.

But this is not new. I’ve always disagreed with views like this and I expected it to come up this election. Harsher penalties for violent crimes is always a hot button election issue. What I didn’t expect was amending the part of the YCJA that protects the identities of minor offenders.

I’m sorry, but if you are tried as a minor and sentenced as a minor, shouldn’t you be protected as a minor? If the crime is serious enough that you are tried as an adult and found guilty, then treat them like an adult and expose their name. But we can’t give judges the right to expose minors who are tried and sentenced as minors, no matter what the crime, especially for offenders as young as 14.

“In this new legislation, the main purpose will be not only to rehabilitate young offenders, but also to protect society, and the primary goal of sentencing will be to deter others from violating the law,” Harper said at an event.

Protecting the name and record of young offenders is a part of rehabilitation. It allows those who are successfully rehabilitated (and, like everything else, it is easiest to do this at a young age) to move on with their lives.  This proposal appears to include no other amendments that actually concern rehabilitation of young offenders.  I find that incredibly concerning.

There was an interesting discussion on CBC’s Sunday Morning last weekend amongst pollsters and a marketing professor from the US about attack ads. Mainly the discussion was about how well these ads work and why they work. Little was said about their value as a way of informing voters about issues. Little was said about the bearing of the truth or falsity of these ads on voter understanding of the isues or the candidates for that matter.

There seemed to be a view that if they either supported your base or discredited your opponents they were fine. It was even argued that these ads were informative and needed to allow voters to make informed choices! But if these ads distort, lie, trade on prejudice and so on how can it be said they are useful in  political discourse? There is a law in economics called Gresham’s Law. The idea is that if bad coinage circulates good coinage is withheld. The bad coin drives out the good. Is this law at work in political discourse?

The Kingston and the Islands election race got off to a slow start, with only the Tories having any presence whatsoever for the first week. This week, however, we’ve seen the Liberals and the NDP finally get their candidates nominated, soon followed by their signs on public property. I guess only the Green Party has decided to follow their “green challenge” of keeping signs off public property.

The private lawn sign war is much more interesting, though. Out in the west end suburban area, Abrams (CPC) signs are all over the place. It seems there’s one on every street. The Whig has printed that he has been out canvassing since January, so he certainly can’t be criticized for not working hard. A drive through the Rideau Heights area also shows more Abrams signs than one might expect

The real interesting story, however, is how well the Greens are doing vs. the Liberals downtown. Walton (Green) ran in 2006, so he may have a bit of an organization going, and he seems to be winning the sign war in Sydenham Ward and over much of downtown. The other surprise down this way is how few signs Milliken (Liberal) has up in Sydenham Ward and downtown, an area he usually dominates. Perhaps he is laying low because of the thrashing he has been taking in the local media, as seen here.

Milliken is the clear favourite, winning by 19% last time over the Tories, but one has to wonder with the way things are going nationally, the recent Eastern Ontario numbers from Nanos that put the Tories ahead of the Grits 40/29, and the good start out of the gate for Abrams if we may have more of a race here than ever before. Only time will tell, the real race is only just beginning…

Coming from a city that did not allow any form of signs on public space; I find the by-laws in Kingston a bit strange. Having election signs on public property makes the campaigns look desperate. It also makes the streets of the city look dirty. Polluting the streets of the city with any political signs should be banned. As an individual currently living in Kingston I don’t understand the reason why signs have to be place on public property in order to create advertising for a candidate.

But let me be clear I think election signs are useless; campaigns spend a lot of money and they waste material that destroys the enviroment in order to create a buzz around the canadiate. Now why can’t candidates and campaigns advertise in the media and create the same effect desired. Michael Gravelle the MPP for Thunder Bay Superior North gave out trees with his signs during the last provincial election now maybe the candidates in Kingston should give a free tree to the public for every sign placed on public property.

I have never seen an election with a slower start. Kingston has had the slowest election start in history; outside the Conservative signs on public property I have seen no visible form of campaigning yet. So I decided maybe I should call some campaign offices to see if the election is on. The Liberal campaign will start full operations on Sep 18th, they have no signs on the ground yet and Peter being the speaker of the house has remained somewhat neutral during campaign.

The Green Party opened a campaign office across the street from the Queen’s University student ghetto; they hope this will attract student support. I tried calling the Green’s but the office is only open for a short time in the afternoon. I must say that I did see some Green election signs on private property; they are currently winning the sign war.

The Conservative Party campaign did not answer the phone, but they seem to be hard at work placing large campaign signs on public property. Makes you wonder can they find a private residence where they can place the signs they spend so much money buying. As for the NDP I don’t even know if they have a candidate yet.

I must say this has been the most uninteresting local campaign I have ever seen. The candidates should start.

The NDP has selected former city councillor  Rick Downes as candidate. Downes ran in the 2007 provincial election. Downes was a three-term city councillor for King’s Town district before coming within 700 votes of Mayor in 2006. In 2007 he was the provincial NDP candidate for Kingston & the Islands New Democrats, winning 22% of the vote. The party is asking people to re-use signs from the 2007 campaign.  Eric Walton is the Green Party candidate and party signs are up. From 1986 to 1994  Walton was a founding member and the part-time agency director of the Kingston Environmental Action Project (KEAP).  He is the Green Party of Canada shadow cabinet critic/advocate for international affairs.  Liberal speaker of the house Peter  Milliken will face off this year against Brian Abrams, a Kingston lawyer with Templeman Menninga who spent 18 years as an RCMP officer before being called to the bar. According to a Milliken news release “Abrams represents fresh blood for the local Tories, and hopes to tap into the Red Tory sentiment that made Kingston a federal Conservative stronghold in the 1970s and 1980s, in the days of Flora MacDonald.”

This year is looking to be an interesting year in the Ottawa-Center riding.  The incumbent, Paul Dewar won this riding in 2006 for the NDP, continuing the legacy of Ed Broadbent.  The riding encompasses the Parkdale Market, Downtown core and Glebe areas of Ottawa, all predominantly left-wing areas.  With the growth of the Green party, the Conservatives stand a better chance than ever at breaking the riding from the orange grip of the NDP, but they are not without strong opposition.  Paul Dewar is a local candidate that has won the hearts of many in the riding, and he will be hard to unseat.  The last Liberal Candidate in the riding managed to come within a couple thousand votes, and with the aggressive green policy proposed in the green shift plan, they may stand a chance at taking some soft NDP votes. 

The real story in this election is going to be the leaders, and I’ve seen this first hand on-ground.  Stephane Dion will need to prove his leadership qualities for soft-NDP and Green voters to consider his party, and the effects of Adscam are still being felt throughout the nation, and within the riding.  Jack Layton will need to continue to present himself as the only real alternative to the “big boys”, and keep the pressure on Elisabeth May and the Greens.  Stephen Harper will need to explain his policies, while defending his record.  He will want to highlight his accomplishments, and most importantly his kept promises.  He will need to keep the pressure on Stephane Dion, and ensure that Canadians continue to see him as a rather weak leader.

I took a trip down to the Brian McGarry headquarters on Thursday and met with some of the volunteer staff(and picked up my lawn sign).  They are motivated, and hungry for a win.  The riding will prove to be a long-shot for the conservatives, but there is a lot of room for dialogue, and a lot of great places to campaign.  The team is strong, the office is impressive, and the organizational capacity is growing by the day.  Most will expect the NDP to win this riding with ease, but if the McGarry team continues to be as pumped up as they are, they will make a formidable opponent indeed.

 I will endeavour to keep you up to date of the goings-on within the riding, and will strive to be as objective as possible.  I am a conservative, so do not be surprised if I am a little more in tune with whats happening in the conservative camp.  Enjoy the race!