Predicted winner – Conservative

In 2004, Liberal MP Paul Zed was effective in getting the message out to voters that they should have a Member of Parliament who was in government. He picked up the seat by about 3500 votes. In ’06 he went back in but his lead shrunk to about 1500 votes.

In this election, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that the Conservatives will be back in power, it’s just a matter of whether they have a majority or a minority. With former PC MLA Rodney Weston carrying the Conservative banner, people may decide they want to have an MP on the government side.

Paul Zed has been regarded as a decent MP for the area but the Liberals carbon tax proposal hasn’t exactly been embraced with open arms in this area where energy and the Irvings are dominant players. The Green Shift promises to chew in to any lead Zed once enjoyed.

X-Factor – Saint Johners have no problem not voting for government. In 1993, when the Progressive Conservatives were decimated, Saint John was one of two ridings in the country that voted in a PC (although it was Elsie Wayne who probably could have run for the Rhino Party and won the seat) and kept it Tory for two more elections when Liberal majorities reigned.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Predicted winner – Liberal

This should have been the election for the Conservatives in Fredericton. Liberal Andy Scott called it quits after holding the riding for 15 years in what had previously long been a traditional Tory seat, theoretically making the seat ripe for the taking.

The Tories however picked New Maryland Progressive Conservative MLA Keith Ashfield to carry the banner. When he won the nomination, part of the reason he was able to secure fellow candidate William Forestall’s supporters votes was a statement that he was pro-life (IE : not a supporter of abortion). That didn’t mean he was actually going to do anything about it in Parliament (nobody does) but that was his personal view. Yet when he had a chance to express that personal view when asked on CBC Radio locally (every candidate was) he refused to answer. Even Liberal candidate David Innes answered, indicating he was in fact personally against abortion but that was his personal view, not that of the Party. Ashfield effectively alienated social-conservatives while Innes provided himself as an alternative to them (without actually promising to do anything). That’s just one issue but it made Ashfield seem wishy-washy and that he couldn’t take a stand. In a tight race, it may be just enough.

Meanwhile, the Greens have run an extremely strong local campaign for Mary Lou Babineau which will probably place them in third ahead of the NDP. The NDP have had a low-key campaign locally and they’ll suffer for it. So will the Conservatives. Innes is going to be able to grab a lot of soft-right votes and soft-left votes, enough to give him the seat.

X-Factor – Voter apathy will probably affect the Conservatives in this riding more than the Liberals as those who don’t care for Ashfield as their candidate just stay home. The prospect of Stephane Dion as Prime Minister though might make some who wouldn’t vote for Ashfield, hold their nose anyway and vote for the Conservatives. Enough to give them the seat though remains to be seen.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Predicted winner – Conservative

Tobique-Mactaquac stretches from outside the city of Fredericton to just north of the bilingual Town of Grand Falls. Conservative MP Mike Allen won this seat in the 2006 election by a mere 250 or so votes over Liberal Andy Savoy. Savoy himself had first taken the seat from the Progressive Conservatives in 2000 by a mere 150 votes although he increased his vote considerably in 2004 thanks in part to a local riding controversy over who would carry the Conservative banner in the riding.

This time Savoy isn’t running in favour of Stanley teacher Sally McGrath who is largely an unknown in much of the riding. Allen has had two and a half years to establish his name throughout the vast riding (not to mention this being his fourth election). Expect him to win this riding and increase his vote.

X-Factor – The NDP and Greens are relatively weak in this riding, more so than in other N.B. ridings. This is a riding where strategic voting if it were utilized heavily could give the Liberals the seat.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Predicted winner – Liberal

Liberal Brian Murphy wasn’t able to totally obliterate his opponents like his predecessor Claudette Bradshaw but he still picked up the seat in 2006 by 8500 votes. This time around Conservative Daniel Allain has put up an impressive campaign and will undoubtedly close that gap. Thanks to a strong local Green campaign and a strong national NDP campaign, the gap may not be as much as some think. Still, Murphy will likely still be MP come Wednesday.

X-Factor – Blue Wave. Traditionally, the riding is usually on the government side. If people feel the Conservatives are going into government, they may vote in high enough numbers to give Allain the seat.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Predicted winner – Conservative

Ridings don’t come much bluer than this one. Only once has this riding gone Liberal and that was in 1993 when Progressive Conservatives dropped faster than Sarah Palin “g’s”.
The one Liberal to hold the seat, Paul Zed had to go to another riding to reach his aspirations of going back to Parliament. Conservative Rob Moore has this one lock, stock and barrel.

X-Factor – Nada. Some diehard Liberal supporters say strategic voting might change the tide, but it wouldn’t be enough.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Predicted winner – Liberal

Liberal Dominic Leblanc has managed to up the number of votes he receives in every election he’s fought. In 2006, he outpolled Conservative Omer Léger by 7000 votes. Léger is giving it another go this election and while he’ll probably close the gap, it won’t be enough.

X-Factor – Stephane Dion, particularly in the small Anglophone portion of the riding but not enough to matter.

Spink About It

Predicted winner – Conservative

In 2006 Conservative Jean-Pierre Ouellet came within a 1000 votes of current Liberal MP Jean Claude D’Amours. Ouellet and D’Amours are going to battle it out again but this time Ouellet should come out on top. The NDP have picked up more than 20% the last two elections and even though they’re running a new candidate this time around, they should do at least that well. The Greens will also pick up more votes and all of this is at the expense of the Liberals. The vote split and strong Conservative vote from the Madawaska part of the riding should push Ouellet over the top.

X-Factor – Ouellet might win it but it’s still going to be a close one. Voter apathy may just result in people staying home. If that happens though it will probably cause more harm to D’Amours. Conservatives tend to get out and vote more particularly since it’s their Party in power.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Predicted Winner – Conservative

Short of the 1993 obliteration of the Progressive Conservatives, Greg Thompson has held this seat since 1988. The last few elections Thompson has picked up more than 50% of the vote.

X-Factor – None. As sure a bet as Acadie-Bathurst is for the NDP, this is Thompson’s seat.

Crossposted -Spink About It

Predicted winner – Liberal

Liberal Charles Hubbard has held the seat since 1993. He’s considered by many to be a good MP who generally takes a centrist stand on issues. He was against the gun registry due to the rural nature of his riding but the National Gun Registry still was located in his riding along with the jobs that go with it. Talk about having your cake and eating it too.

X-Factor – Disdain, distrust or a lack of understanding of the Liberal’s carbon tax might eat into some of Hubbard’s support but he has a weak competition this time around which should more than make up for any losses.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Predicted Winner – NDP

Called the giant killer for beating Liberal Cabinet Minister Doug Young in 1997, NDP MP Yvon Godin has now won four consecutive elections in a province which generally doesn’t support the NDP provincially or federally. He won the last election with 50% of the vote.

X-Factor – None. This one is in the bag for Godin.

Crossposted – Spink About It

I always try to offer up my predictions before an election. My blogging colleague NB Politico does some extensive predictions which fluctuate a bit as time goes by based on a number of factors. Mine are based on what I’ve read, people I’ve talked to throughout the province from various political backgrounds (and sometimes none) and my own experience. These aren’t wish lists of mine. They are simply how I think things will go.

Overall, like many, it’s hard to believe Stephen Harper won’t be Prime Minister after the election. It’s simply a matter of whether he’ll have a minority or majority, making New Brunswick’s ten seats important.

I’ll run through all 10 New Brunswick ridings over the new week. Some of the commentary will be quite short, others longer. There are a few ridings which are fluctuating quite a bit which I’ll hold off until closer to the end to make a call. Your take as always is welcomed.

Crossposted – Spink About It

The Brian Murphy MP Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe website is temporarily off-line during the 2008 Federal election.

?!?

He’s still the MP though isn’t he?

Crossposted – Spink About It

Not to say they don’t exist. They do but Conservatives dominate the blogging scene. More on that at this neat feature at CBC regarding the online component of the federal election. H/T to Terry Seguin of CBC Fredericton’s Information Morning who mentioned this today (Two plugs for CBC in a week. Who would have thought?)

This actually comes a day after mikel pointed out in the comments of one of the blogs here that I had in the past mentioned there was a lack of left-winged blogs. Seems it’s a cross country phenomenon not just New Brunswick.

Why?

I don’t know. Conspiracy theories don’t wash since anyone regardless of their political stripe can start a blog for nothing except their time. In New Brunswick at least, many of the political blogs might favour conservative ideals but tend to lean towards being non-partisan instead of joining the Blogging Tories or Liblogs for whatever reason.

As I mentioned to Mike, maybe it’s because the Left already has most of the mainstream media so there’s little problem getting their voices heard. Maybe. Maybe it’s something else. Conspiracy theories aside, your thoughts?

Crossposted – Spink About It

I am no military strategist by any stretch of the imagination so maybe I’m off base.

However, this had me perplexed when the Opposition was trying to put firm deadlines on Canada pulling the plug on Afghanistan. Now that the Conservatives are talking about a 2011 withdraw, well…

Telling the Taliban when you’re leaving just doesn’t seem smart. Granted there are other countries there and this isn’t just Canada’s war but some kind of measure of success besides a date thrown out during an election campaign would seem to be a better idea.

In the Fredericton riding which is home to CFB Gagetown, it will be interesting how this plays out at the polling booths. Should we be there or not has been a debate across the country but it is worth noting that since 9/11 there have been no terrorist attacks on North American soil and life for many Afghanis has improved thanks to the Canadian Military.

War sucks but it would be a shame if all the work done by our soldiers (counting nearly 100 who gave their lives) ended up being reversed the moment we pull the plug because of an arbitrary deadline set in the heat of an election.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Ten seats are up for grabs in New Brunswick. Only a handful are truly in play with at least six considered locks.  My blogging friend NB Politico has done an excellent job of offereing up predictions and frankly I can’t argue with any of them. You can check them out  here. The NDP will likely easily hang on to Acadie-Bathurst which they’ve had for a decade based on the popularity of local MP Yvon Godin. The Liberals will keep Miramichi, Beausejour and probably Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe. The rest are either safe Tory seats or leaning that way. Saint John will be interesting to watch with incumbent Liberal Paul Zed trying to hand on against Tory Rodney Weston (this was Elsie Wayne’s seat for years). Fredericton will also be fun to watch with Liberal Andy Scott calling it quits.

A few of my fellow bloggers have created a great blog to follow the New Brunswick (and Atlantic races) at New Brunswickers Paint the Political Picture. Well worth the visit for the latest in the N.B. races.

From a non-partisan but right-of-centre perpsective, I’ll be offering up my own take both here at Democratic Space and at my regular blog Spink About It on the N.B. races.