As most suspected, Liberal incumbent Peter Milliken was re-elected to a seventh term last night over rivals Brian Abrams (Conservative), Rick Downes (NDP), and Eric Walton (Green). The surprise of the evening, however, was how close the race was. While Milliken still won by a somewhat comfortable margin of over 3,500 votes and 6.5%, this is still far removed from the over 12,000 votes and nearly 20% margin he won by in 2006, which many thought was an off-year for him.

This can be credited to a few things:

1) The strong Abrams Campaign: Abrams’ campaign was strong right out of the gate and had been active since January getting his name out there and attending events. I had the chance to see him on two occasions during this election, and it’s clear he is also quite impressive in person. He had a strong presence by winning the sign war, a billboard and radio campaign, and occasional media coverage (though some was pretty harsh as well).

2) The demographics of Kingston: Although Kingston has leaned Liberal for quite some time, there are demographics that trend towards the Conservatives. Lots of protestant suburban voters, seniors, military voters, rural voters and high-net-worth retirees all trend towards the Conservatives, especially in this election. This should account for much of the switch from Liberal to CPC.

3) Milliken himself: Milliken has taken quite a beating in the media, and more importantly in the coffeeshops, with his musings about not serving a full term if not given the speaker’s position again. He has claimed in the media that it was “misinformation”, but in my humble opinion, Milliken was given every opportunity to say outright “I WILL serve a full term” and never said it outright. This appears to have been a factor.

So what does the future hold for this riding? I can’t imagine Milliken will be the Speaker again. He was given the Speaker’s position because the CPC numbers in the 120′s made them concerned about losing the one vote and still being able to pass legislation with the support of the NDP. With 143 seats, this won’t be a factor anymore, and if the Conservatives are intent on governing with a stronger mandate (and one day a majority), they’ll need a Conservative member as Speaker. This will put the heat on Milliken and test whether he really was after only the Speaker’s chair or not.

As for Abrams, his strong showing positions him very well for another run. Whether it will be a byelection when Milliken retires, or as part of another likely election in the next couple of years, he will most certainly be a candidate again and must be considered a likely frontrunner if Milliken isn’t on the Grit ticket.

After 20 years, Kingston politics may have just entered the ‘exciting’ category once again.

PS – full disclosure, I voted for the Greens’ Eric Walton.

C’est sans surprise que Meili Faille du Bloc Québécois conserve son poste de député à Ottawa. Félicitation à cette femme de terrain qui saura travailler fort pour la région, malgré le rôle du bloc dans l’opposition. Je reviendrai avec une impression plus exhaustive dans les prochains jours.

Avec un taux de participation régional de 67.44%, mes prédiction n’était finalement pas farfelues. En effet, en constatant à quel point Brigitte Legault à chauffé les fesses de Michael Fortier, qui n’a pas su convaincre les résidents de Vaudreuil-Soulanges avec son attitude plutôt arrogante, les résultats d’hier montrent à quel point le paysage politique de la région, jadis très fédéraliste. à changé en 5 ans. Je crois que Michael Fortier a sous-estimé la popularité de Meili Faille dans la région. Cependant, de par son statut de star, son score est beaucoup plus intéressant que lors des élections de 2006, où les Conservateurs avaient reçu une maigre troisième place. Félicitation aussi à Maxime Héroux-Legault pour son 10% de la faveur populaire. Sans enlever le fait que Maxime à trimé dur, ce résultat est probablement lié à des votes pour le parti NPD et sa philosophie qu’au candidat lui-même. Par ailleurs, Jean-Yves Massenet récolte un mince 4%. Je ne crois pas que c’est la faute du candidat. En effet, Jean-Yves est une personne qui gagne à être connu dans la région. Par contre, une meilleure visibilité sera la bienvenue la prochaine fois. Candidat aux prochaines élections provinciales, monsieur Massenet?

Je terminerai en disant que le résultat aurait été tout autre si ce n’était de la bonne performance de Brigitte Legault. Elle a su tirer son épingle du jeu avec brio. Sa prestance et son aisance devant un auditoire (voir les débats locaux) lui a bien servi. Il est clair que le fédéralisme selon le parti Libéral rejoint encore bon nombre de citoyens de Vaudreuil-Soulanges. Probablement que les anglophones de la région ne sont pas séduit tant que ça par les politiques plutôt à droite des Conservateurs.

En conclusion, il est clair que tant que les gens et organismes de Vaudreuil-Soulanges sentiront qu’ils sont bien servi à Ottawa, Meili Faille restera.

It is widely believed that all 28 ridings in Alberta will go to the Conservatives, but there are two ridings that might switch to a different couleur.

The first one is Calgary Northeast. This riding, which used to belong to Art Hanger, who is retiring from politics, is the scene of conservative infighting between the official Conservative candidate, Devinder Shory, and an independent conservative contender, Roger Richard. The battle between them has been anything but benign, with injunctions and other legal threats being traded liberally.

This could result in the same split of the vote on the right in this riding that was also instrumental in allowing the Liberals three majority governments under Jean Chrétien when the right was divided into Tories and Reform.

It’s a story as old as time: when two are engaged in battle like this, it is usually a third that comes up the middle and takes the prize – in this case, Liberal candidate Sanam Kang, for example. But the riding may also go to the Green Party candidate or the NDP. The only thing that the two conservative candidates have going for them is that the candidates of the other parties don’t seem too capable or promising, which may limit voters’ choices to Shory and Richard.

The other riding that warrants close attention is Edmonton-Strathcona. Here, the Tory incumbent is facing off against a strong NDP candidate, Linda Duncan. Duncan has enjoyed great momentum, as documented by Liberals4Linda, a blog of Liberals who have decided to endorse and vote for Duncan.

There is no real threat to Conservatives in any of the other 26 ridings, which will be won by the Conservatives by five-digit margins – as usual – including, unfortunately, Calgary West, where the always-absent and abrasive Conservative incumbent should have been removed from office a long time ago. So, in Calgary West, people’s hopes are that Jennifer Pollock can pull it off and restore democracy in the riding at long last.

I’ll stay out of the predictions game outside of my province. So since everyone and their Mom is posting on this, lets cut to the chase:

Battleford-Llyodminster:
Winner: Gerry Ritz (CON)

Blackstrap:
Winner: Lynne Yelich (CON)

Cypress Hills-Grassland:
Winner: David Anderson (CON)

Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River:
Winner: Rob Clarke (CON)

Palliser:
Winner: Ray Boughen (CON)

Prince Albert:
Winner: Randy Hoback (CON)

Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre:
Winner: Tom Lukiwski (CON)

Regina-Qu’Appelle:
Winner: Janice Bernier (NDP)

Saskatoon-Humboldt:
Winner: Brad Trost (CON)

Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar:
Winner: Nettie Wiebe (NDP)

Saskatoon-Wanuskewin:
Winner: Maurice Vellacott (CON)

Souris-Moose Mountain:
Winner: Ed Komarnicki (CON)

Wascana:
Winner: Ralph Goodale (LIB)

Yorkton-Melville:
Winner: Garry Breitkreuz (CON)

The squeakers will be in Palliser, Regina-Qu’Appelle, and Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar. Given the strength of the New Democrat candidates in all three ridings (all of whom have been on the hustings since early 2007) and the upswing in NDP support province-wide, I don’t think I’m going out on too far of a limb in calling for victories in 2 of the 3 ridings.

Goodale will easily retain his seat in Wascana, but I just don’t see Orchard pulling it out up in DMCR.

The NDP will finish a strong second in Palliser, Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, Saskatoon-Humboldt, Saskatoon-Wanuskewin, Blackstrap, and Prince Albert, putting some distance between themselves and the Liberal candidates.

The Conservative support is rock solid outside of the main urban centres, and while they might see a slight drop in their overall percentages, they will still win handily over their competitors.

The final tally: CON 11, NDP 2, LIB 1.

Nationally, I’ll deal in generalities:
- The Conservatives will win an increased minority government
- The Liberals will win seats numbering in the low 90s
- The New Democrats will break 40 seats increase their seat total (35-40)
- The BQ will take 1 or 2 of the existing Conservative seats in Quebec
- The Green Party will not win a seat
- All the leaders will win their seats, except Elizabeth May who will finish a close 3rd.

I ventured over to the Centre Eugène-Sauvageau in Gatineau today to vote. I was there early, having arrived at about 9h45. The community centre is familiar to me as I worked there during the last provincial election for the advanced voting days. The place wasn’t exactly packed this morning but there was a steady stream of people coming and going. Due to the early hour, the voters were mostly elderly though there were a few young people there. I did my part to help get Raphaël Déry of the Bloc Québécois elected.

As always seems to be the case when I vote, my polling station was the busiest and the only one with a line-up. I didn’t mind waiting, but the person behind me was quite annoyed. She had an appointment at 10h00. Egads!

This made me think of what my girlfriend had told me about earlier. She had voted in the advanced voting in her riding of Ottawa-Orleans. While she was voting, she became moved at how simple, free, and easy it is to vote in Canada. She has a friend in Mexico who had a difficult time voting in the last election, having to wait hours to cast her ballot. I’m sure many of you recall the turmoil of the last Mexican election, with each party claiming victory and the eventual losers holding raucous rallies in the capital. And then there are third world countries where people don’t get to vote, are violently prevented from voting, or where elections are rigged and meaningless.

We are incredibly lucky to live in a country with free and fair elections. It is not only our privilege to vote but our duty. It only takes a few minutes and, even if you have an appointment at 10h00, be happy that your only voting obstacle is a busy schedule. It could be much worse.

Cross-posted to Sovereignty en Anglais.

Predicted winner – Conservative

In 2004, Liberal MP Paul Zed was effective in getting the message out to voters that they should have a Member of Parliament who was in government. He picked up the seat by about 3500 votes. In ’06 he went back in but his lead shrunk to about 1500 votes.

In this election, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that the Conservatives will be back in power, it’s just a matter of whether they have a majority or a minority. With former PC MLA Rodney Weston carrying the Conservative banner, people may decide they want to have an MP on the government side.

Paul Zed has been regarded as a decent MP for the area but the Liberals carbon tax proposal hasn’t exactly been embraced with open arms in this area where energy and the Irvings are dominant players. The Green Shift promises to chew in to any lead Zed once enjoyed.

X-Factor – Saint Johners have no problem not voting for government. In 1993, when the Progressive Conservatives were decimated, Saint John was one of two ridings in the country that voted in a PC (although it was Elsie Wayne who probably could have run for the Rhino Party and won the seat) and kept it Tory for two more elections when Liberal majorities reigned.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Predicted winner – Liberal

This should have been the election for the Conservatives in Fredericton. Liberal Andy Scott called it quits after holding the riding for 15 years in what had previously long been a traditional Tory seat, theoretically making the seat ripe for the taking.

The Tories however picked New Maryland Progressive Conservative MLA Keith Ashfield to carry the banner. When he won the nomination, part of the reason he was able to secure fellow candidate William Forestall’s supporters votes was a statement that he was pro-life (IE : not a supporter of abortion). That didn’t mean he was actually going to do anything about it in Parliament (nobody does) but that was his personal view. Yet when he had a chance to express that personal view when asked on CBC Radio locally (every candidate was) he refused to answer. Even Liberal candidate David Innes answered, indicating he was in fact personally against abortion but that was his personal view, not that of the Party. Ashfield effectively alienated social-conservatives while Innes provided himself as an alternative to them (without actually promising to do anything). That’s just one issue but it made Ashfield seem wishy-washy and that he couldn’t take a stand. In a tight race, it may be just enough.

Meanwhile, the Greens have run an extremely strong local campaign for Mary Lou Babineau which will probably place them in third ahead of the NDP. The NDP have had a low-key campaign locally and they’ll suffer for it. So will the Conservatives. Innes is going to be able to grab a lot of soft-right votes and soft-left votes, enough to give him the seat.

X-Factor – Voter apathy will probably affect the Conservatives in this riding more than the Liberals as those who don’t care for Ashfield as their candidate just stay home. The prospect of Stephane Dion as Prime Minister though might make some who wouldn’t vote for Ashfield, hold their nose anyway and vote for the Conservatives. Enough to give them the seat though remains to be seen.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Below is my final chart of how the democraticSPACE projected vote totals in Edmonton-Strathcona have changed over time (between September 25th and October 12th). The graph displays averages of democraticSPACE’s projected ranges.  According to these averages, the Conservatives are currently projected as one point ahead of the NDP, but the democraticSPACE projection model doesn’t take potential strategic voting into account.

I’m glad I’m not in the position–as the real masterminds behind democraticSPACE are–of having to make a prediction about this race. It’s simply not possible this time. I admit to having access to a bit more data than democraticSPACE has, but even so, I wouldn’t hazard a guess. I will say that I can foresee anything from a rather more marginal win than usual for Conservative candidate Rahim Jaffer (if the progressive strategic vote for NDP candidate Linda Duncan turns out to be weak or non-existent) to a comfortable win for Duncan (if the Liberal vote collapses into the single digits). Both of those scenarios are possible. More likely than either one, though, is one of the various nail-biter scenarios in between. At this point it all comes down to three factors: 1) how well the Tories are able to get out their vote, 2) how well the NDP is able to get out its vote, and the most important and yet least controllable factor: 3) just how strong the Anybody But the Conservatives movement is in the riding–i.e., how willing the Liberal and Green voters are to switch their votes to oust a Tory.

It’s already been said by the Ottawa Citizen, the CBC, the Calgary Herald, and the National Post, but to say that this is a riding to watch is a massive understatement. And for all those denizens of the riding who are sick of your vote not counting, well, just consider this election a rare gift.  Because oh boy does it count this time.

Further reading:
Edmonton-Strathcona: a snapshot
Winners and losers in Edmonton-Strathcona
Edmonton-Strathcona: the Conservatives
Edmonton-Strathcona: the New Democrats
Edmonton-Strathcona: the Liberals
Edmonton-Strathcona: the Greens

Predicted winner – Conservative

Tobique-Mactaquac stretches from outside the city of Fredericton to just north of the bilingual Town of Grand Falls. Conservative MP Mike Allen won this seat in the 2006 election by a mere 250 or so votes over Liberal Andy Savoy. Savoy himself had first taken the seat from the Progressive Conservatives in 2000 by a mere 150 votes although he increased his vote considerably in 2004 thanks in part to a local riding controversy over who would carry the Conservative banner in the riding.

This time Savoy isn’t running in favour of Stanley teacher Sally McGrath who is largely an unknown in much of the riding. Allen has had two and a half years to establish his name throughout the vast riding (not to mention this being his fourth election). Expect him to win this riding and increase his vote.

X-Factor – The NDP and Greens are relatively weak in this riding, more so than in other N.B. ridings. This is a riding where strategic voting if it were utilized heavily could give the Liberals the seat.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Dion visited the Norwood Fall Fair in Peterborough riding this afternoon. He spent about an hour touring the fair and meeting voters. I went and snapped pictures as best I could through the crowds.

Liberal supporters start gathering in anticipation of Dion’s arrival.

A canine supporter

Dion and Peterborough candidate Betsy McGregor kindly pose for a photo.

Dion waves goodbye as he gets back on the campaign bus.

(Cross-posted at my blog)

This is scary news. We are used to seeing such things reported from the U.S. and other countries, but not from within Canada….

Predicted winner – Liberal

Liberal Brian Murphy wasn’t able to totally obliterate his opponents like his predecessor Claudette Bradshaw but he still picked up the seat in 2006 by 8500 votes. This time around Conservative Daniel Allain has put up an impressive campaign and will undoubtedly close that gap. Thanks to a strong local Green campaign and a strong national NDP campaign, the gap may not be as much as some think. Still, Murphy will likely still be MP come Wednesday.

X-Factor – Blue Wave. Traditionally, the riding is usually on the government side. If people feel the Conservatives are going into government, they may vote in high enough numbers to give Allain the seat.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Pauvre Gilles Duceppe…

Le chef bloquiste semble être victime du mauvais sort lorsqu’il visite des marchés publics.

Fin septembre, le candidat libéral de Papineau, Justin Trudeau est tombé par hasard sur la tournée dominicale de Duceppe au marché Jean-Talon, accompagnée de sa candidate Vivianne Barbot. Scène complètement surréaliste s’il en est une.

Puis ce matin, c’est au tour de Luc Harvey, député sortant de Louis-Hébert, de faire un détour par le marché public de Sainte-Foy, où le chef du Bloc se trouvait, pour aller réclamer le bilan de la présence bloquiste à Ottawa. Duceppe, qui peutavoir la mèche courte parfois, ne s’est pas caché pour lâcher un ” c’est un imbécile ” à sa garde rapprochée, mais suffisamment fort pour que plusieurs médias soulèvent l’anecdote.

Appelons les choses par leur nom : Luc Harvey n’est pas un imbécile. Luc Harvey est nerveux, excessivement nerveux depuis que les sondages démontrent qu’il est maintenant derrière le candidat bloquiste Pascal-Pierre Paillé. Et il a agi comme un imbécile en allant crier au Marché.

M. Harvey ne bénéficie pas d’un surplus de confiance de la part de ses commettants. Prenez par exemple ses démêlés avec le fisc (commentaire de François Bourque ici) ou encore son attitude condescendante dans un débat contre son adversaire du Bloc québécois plus tôt cette semaine. Son numéro d’aujourd’hui ne devrait pas l’aider.

Michel Hébert chronique là-dessus en mentionnant notamment que M. Harvey dit être passé là par hasard. Ben oui…

It’s a beautiful Thanksgiving weekend and Orillia sparkled as the neat little city it is when Stephane Dion and two busloads of national media drew up to the Farmers’ Market behind the Orillia Opera House for a noontime rally.

I’d come along to see what kind of reception Dion would receive from small town Ontario Saturday shoppers. He got a warm, even enthusiastic welcome, as a horde of Liberal volunteers surrounded him with placards and cheers as he made his way through the crowd.

Stephane Dion with Barrie candidate Rick Jones, left, and Simcoe North candidate Steve Clarke, right, showing appreciation for young musicians

Dion gave a good stump speech. He appealed for the “progressive vote” and told NDP supporters that they and the Liberals share the same social values but only a Liberal vote can stop Stephen Harper. That’s certainly true in this riding, at least.

“Stephen Harper is building his campaign on a lie. He will lose on a lie,” Dion told the audience.

He was referring to the oft-repeated Tory charge that Dion’s Green Plan will hurt Canadians because it includes a carbon tax. The fact the Green Shift includes income tax cuts is never mentioned by the Tories.

Dion threw in a good word for Elizabeth May, expressing the hope she’ll be elected in Central Nova.

Asked about whether the trembling economy would hold up implementation of Liberal promises, Dion said his party has a four-year plan. He committed himself to carrying out all its goals, including child care and a catastrophic drug plan, within that time frame. But there may have to be some delays in the first year or two, he said, depending on economic conditions.

The Liberals know their only chance of forming a minority government is to stop the siphoning off of left-of-center votes. The Greens have probably been the major factor so far in the Liberals having dropped in the polls from their 30 per cent level in the 2006 belection. The Conservatives are down also, but if only one voter in three marks their ballot for a Tory on Tuesday, Harper will have won.

Won what? That’s the question. He’ll have to take more seats than the Liberals and the NDP combined, in order to withstand an immediate test in Parliament.

From the looks of the campaign in Simcoe North, one of those close Ontario battleground seats, it’s going to be a squeaker between Clarke and Tory incumbent Bruce Stanton. The 1,200-vote edge by which Stanton won in 2006 (out of 60,000 votes) is no assurance the Conservatives can hold this seat. That’s why Dion was here today.

I saw Green party candidate Valerie Powell hanging around the edges of the rally. She managed to snag an interview with a couple of the national media. Powell could be the king-maker in Simcoe North on Tuesday, depending on how many people are resistent to Dion’s plea for a united “progressive” vote.

“I’ll be the greenest prime minister Canada ever had,” Dion likes to tell his rallies. He repeated that claim here today. Will it be good enough for those tempted to vote Green?

We’ll know Tuesday night. Clarke is a popular local businessman. He runs the Brewery Bay cafe on Orillia’s main street. Stanton’s case for re-election rests in part on the funding he says he’s been able to bring into the riding for public works. A good example of old fashioned stump politics. But as of right now, I’m calling Simcoe North to switch to the Liberal column when the votes are counted.

www.wildaboutwriting.com

I spent a good part of today and yesterday running errands in my downtown neighbourhood. On both occasions the only canvassing I saw was for the Greens. In both instances it was a pair of Green supporters. It’s all rather low key.

And low key is the way I would capture this entire campaign. Dunno what it’s like elsewhere in Soviet Canuckistan, but out here there’s alot of election fatigue. Going back to 2004

• 2004 Federal election
• 2004 Municipal election
• 2005 Provincial election
• 2006 Federal election
• 2008 Federal election (Oct)
• 2008 Provincial by-election (Oct)
• 2008 Municipal election (Nov)
• 2009 Provincial election (May)

So here in Vancouver’s West End that’ll be 8 elections in 5 years–and 3 in a period of about 6 weeks this year. Even for us political nerds it’s hard to get too enervated by it all.

At the ballot box those sentiments could pan out in a number of ways. Many fence sitters might decide to stay home instead. Some will snark vote: either vote for the Tories to give someone a majority and to get some peace, or do the Anything But Harper schtick and try to support the local candidate best positioned to keep the Cons out. And there’s always the FYou vote, which in BC was NDP for a long time, then Reform/Alliance, but now seems splintered between the Dippers and Greens. Though I expect a lot of Greens will split towards the Liberal or New Democrat who can win in their consituency.

Vancouver Centre–OK I’ll call it. Michael Byers squeaks out a <1, 000 vote plurality over Hedy.

Unless she romps it again….

Predicted winner – Conservative

Ridings don’t come much bluer than this one. Only once has this riding gone Liberal and that was in 1993 when Progressive Conservatives dropped faster than Sarah Palin “g’s”.
The one Liberal to hold the seat, Paul Zed had to go to another riding to reach his aspirations of going back to Parliament. Conservative Rob Moore has this one lock, stock and barrel.

X-Factor – Nada. Some diehard Liberal supporters say strategic voting might change the tide, but it wouldn’t be enough.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Depuis hier DemocraticSPACE prévoit sept Bloquistes sur 7 pour le “nord du Québec”. Surprenant. Même Lebel de Roberval, le dernier qui semblait solide, prend le bord.

J’ai pas l’impression que Jean-Pierre Blackburn ne va pouvoir s’en remettre lui non-plus, même avec sa promesse de 1 000 jobs et plus dans une prison futur à Larouche, même avec un beau gymnase tout neuf et tout aussi futur pour le Cégep de Jonquière, annoncé en grande pompe, hier en mettant de côté les “partenaires” péquistes et syndicales. Chantale est encore à une majorité absolue de plus de 50%, bien au delà de la marge d’erreur.

Trop de tout au local, je crois. Et pas assez de ce qui compte au nationale! On dirait que c’est la campagne fédérale du Parti Conservateur, qui les avaient porté au pouvoir il y a deux ans et qui est en train de les renvoyer à la maison. Que d’erreurs du point de vue du Saguenay et du Québec. C’est ce que les analystes disent dans la région depuis quelques jours. Entendu à la piscine du Cégep par un non spécialiste en science politique:”ça me fait de la peine pour monsieur Blackburn que je respecte, mais son chef ne l’a vraiment pas”.

I returned home from a night out to find a voice mail on my phone. It starts out quite simply (translated):

“Hello. This is a recorded message.”

It turns out it is a recorded message from Pierre Ducasse, the NDP candidate for Hull-Aylmer. He says that if we want nothing to do with the Conservatives, are sick of being taken for granted by the Liberals, and are tired of the old arguments (from the Bloc), we should vote for change and the NDP.

Pierre, I’m glad you called, but you aren’t going to win with recorded messages. You know how many volunteers you need to make a recorded message and send it out to a few hundred people? None. Just Pierre Ducasse and a computer.

I’ve already been called twice for the Bloc Québécois personally by Dr. Gilles Aubé, former and current candidate for the provincial Parti Québécois in Hull (who did well in the last by-election).

That’s how you win elections.

—

Cross-posted to Sovereignty en Anglais.

Predicted winner – Liberal

Liberal Dominic Leblanc has managed to up the number of votes he receives in every election he’s fought. In 2006, he outpolled Conservative Omer Léger by 7000 votes. Léger is giving it another go this election and while he’ll probably close the gap, it won’t be enough.

X-Factor – Stephane Dion, particularly in the small Anglophone portion of the riding but not enough to matter.

Spink About It

We finally have our first election poll for Saskatchewan (no longer just “the west”). I’m not generally one to go by individual poll results, so take these with a grain of salt. However, since they are all we have, lets look at them a little closer. The poll, conducted by News Talk 650/Angus Reid, questioned 800 voters from across the province. The results (+/- 3.5%, 19 out 20 times):

Conservatives: 40%
NDP: 35%
Liberals: 17%
Greens: 7%
Undecided: 28%

Interestingly, in opposite fashion to the national trends of the past week, Dion’s approval ratings are extremely low in the province, even lower than Elizabeth May. Stephen Harper is thought to make the best PM of the bunch, with Jack Layton having the highest approal rating. In 2006 the split was 49/25, the Liberal 2006 total was not reported but was higher than the current 17%.

A little speculation, again with a huge grain of salt. The NDP are serious challengers in 3 ridings, Palliser, Regina-Qu’Appelle and Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar. In 2006, the Conservatives enjoyed  leads of 6.5%/9%/10% over the New Democrats in SRB, R-Q, and Palliser. Assuming that these provincial trends breakdown evenly amongst these ridings it suggests that Nettie Wiebe in SRB has a decent chance of overcoming her 1,919 vote deficeit from 2006. It also means that Janice Bernier might be closer than expected for the New Democrats in Regina Qu’Appelle and that Liberal support may collapse enough to give Don Mitchell a chance in a relatively tight three-way race in Palliser.

Additionally, these numbers suggest that in most of the ridings with a major urban portion (Saskatoon-Wanuskewin, Saskatoon-Humboldt, Blackstrap, Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, and Prince Albert), where the NDP finished second or a close third, that the New Democrat campaigns could enjoy significant gains on the Tory incumbents while pulling away from the Liberals.

For the Liberals, I don’t think this means Goodale is in trouble in Wascana, as his closest competitor is a Conservative candidate and King Ralph has consistently bucked provincial trends. A poll conducted by the Regina-Leader Post in Wascana, conducted between Oct 3 and 7th and interviewing 801 voters (3.4%, 19 out 20 times), gives the following breakdown of decided voters:

Goodale (Lib): 51.4
Hunter (Con): 34.3
Moore (NDP): 11.1
Wooldridge (GP): 3.2

If these number hold true, it would suggest that my analyses of Wascana and Ralph bucking the provincial trends (yet again) were not far off the mark. Some further analyses by Murray Mandryk. However, in DMCR it could mean that despite having a strong organizer like Orchard running, the Liberals may not have enough to overcome Conservative incumbent Rob Clarke, with some support swinging to the NDP instead

Anyhow, as a politics addict I couldn’t resist a little speculation on a one-off poll. So take it with a grain of salt, disagree if you want, I am always open to different interpretations of the numbers.

_________

cross-posted on my blog.