2008 CANADA ELECTION

14 October 2008

SEAT PROJECTIONS & RIDING DISCUSSION -- SELECT PROVINCE/TERRITORY OR RIDING

Economy Articles

Falling Markets – Rich get richer, the rest get poorer

There’s an excellent money-for-dummies article out today, written by an Associated Press writer, which explains a basic economic fundamental in plain terms. Once you understand that basic principle and begin extrapolating from it, you soon realize the broader implications for “ordinary Canadians” of Stephen Harper’s “great buying opportunities.”

As the New Democratic Candidate in Scarborough—Agincourt, I’ve just finished seven debates and many more interviews.

After speaking with thousands of residents, I keep hearing three topics come up as the top concerns here:

Repealing regressive immigration reform (Bill C-50)

Scarborough—Agincourt has one of the largest immigrant populations in all of Canada. Residents have been bringing up Bill C-50 at every debate I’ve attended. It was a very regressive piece of immigration legislation brought in by the Conservatives that the Liberals let pass. The NDP was the only federal party that stood up and united against it. Constituents here are very upset with this bill because it gives arbitrary powers to the immigration minister to pick and choose who goes up and off the waiting list based on his or her own biases, often favouring temporary workers over family-class and economic class immigrants. This has been detrimental to family reunification and is treating new Canadians like second-class citizens. The New Democrats not only opposed this bill and want to repeal it, we have a plan to make family reunification easier, recognize foreign credentials, and provide training and bridging programs for those who need to upgrade or need new credentials altogether. Not only have the New Democrats consistently stood up in Parliament for this kind of immigration fairness, we’re the only party that has allocated funds to these priorities to make sure the services and new programs we are promising will actually be delivered.

Ending the war in Afghanistan

People confirm what Liberal incumbent Jim Karygiannis said in his own survey back in February:

Seventy-four percent believe we should not extent [sic] the Canadian combat mission beyond 2009

And yet Mr. Karygiannis voted to extend the war.

A vast majority of residents here are against this war. The recent news of a British brigadier-general saying the war cannot be won only confirmed what residents have been saying here for years. The news today of the overspending on a mission that will now cost up to $18.1 billion ($1500 per Canadian household) now adds another dimension on top of the moral and practical reasons why this mission needs to end.

People see the war as inflaming terrorism in Afghanistan, as confirmed by the Toronto Star’s Thomas Walkom: “In three southern provinces, including Kandahar, terrorist attacks have increased more than 10-fold since 2002. In Kabul and surrounding areas, they have more than tripled” (August 18, 2008). In a riding concerned with safety, residents can’t see why Liberals and Conservatives are continuing a mission that is making Afghanistan less safe.

Poverty is also an issue: “A recent UN report says general indicators such as human development and poverty have worsened [in Afghanistan] since 2004″ (Rick Salutin, Globe and Mail, February 22, 2008). In a riding with 9.2% unemployment (even higher youth unemployment) and more than its fair share of poverty, families can’t understand why they’re being asked to pay $1500 each for a mission that’s increasing poverty overseas and adding to their own economic insecurity at home.

Finding an alternative in the New Democrats

For every vote Jim Karygiannis received last election, another voter stayed home and didn’t cast their ballot. Many people are turning away from Mr. Karygiannis because they believed in the Liberal brand; either Trudeau’s “just society” or Pearson’s commitment to peacekeeping. By abandoning the former with passing Bill C-50 and abandoning the latter with extending the war, people are looking for alternatives. There is a massive anti-Karygiannis constituency that is waiting to hear more about the alternatives so they know what they’re voting for.

With his visibility in the riding (signs and literature), many people were considering Dr. Benson Lau (Conservative) as that alternative. With his medical credentials, many assumed he’d stand up for health care. But after people realized that Stephen Harper’s last job with the National Citizens Coalition included the goal of dismantling universal health care, they began to ask how a doctor can stand up for health care with Harper as his boss. They also don’t understand how Dr. Lau, having immigrated to Canada, could support a party that introduced Bill C-50.

When residents realize the predecessor of the New Democrats (Cooperative Commonwealth Federation) was the party that brought universal health care to Canada on 17 consecutive balanced budgets and that the NDP was the only federal party to stand united against Bill C-50, many anti-Karygiannis voters who were thinking of voting Conservative are changing their intentions and trusting the New Democrats to deliver social justice, peace, and economic security. At a recent debate, one resident (Sharon Adams) echoed what many others have been telling me when she said, “I came to the debate tonight thinking I would vote Conservative to try and get rid of our incumbent, but that would be a wasted vote.” She was later quoted in the Scarborough Mirror which reported: The evening confirmed her leanings toward casting a vote for Dougherty, who Adams noted “was able to hold his own and seemed to know his facts” (October 8, 2008).

Sprint final dans Haute-Gaspésie-Matane-Mitis-Matapédia

La lutte dans le comté est toujours bien engagée et plus serrée que dans d’autres régions du Québec. Par contre, Greg a retiré le “?” pour le remplacé par un logo du Bloc dans ses dernières prédictions. Le Bloc était favori au départ un peu partout dans l’est du Québec sauf que la vague conservatrice menaçait sérieusement. Les ratés de la campagne conservatrice en fin de course redonne le peu qu’il manquait au bloquistes pour vraiment l’emporter un peu partout dans l’est, de Kamouraska jusqu’à Gaspé et incluant la Côte-Nord. La remontée des libéraux dans la dernière semaine est cependant à surveiller de près, car comme mentionné plus tôt, je suis certain que les libéraux auront un meilleur score ici que dans l’ensemble du Québec à cause de la candidate locale.

Messages des candidats juste avant que les électeurs arrêtent leur vote:

NANCY CHAREST, PARTI LIBÉRAL
– A promis un projet fédéral porteur dans chacune des 4 MRC (ex: rénovation des installations portuaires à St-Anne-des-Monts, prêt sans intérêt pour un projet éolien communautaire dans la Mitis)
- Sondage interne du parti donne les libéraux gagnants le 7 oct.(!)
- Support du célèbre général Roméo Dallaire
- Long bilan personnel d’implication politique et de réalisations dans la région, implication récente dans l’industrie éolienne
- Elle vante les mérites du plan économique et environnemental du PLC pour les familles de la région

JÉRÔME LANDRY, PARTI CONSERVATEUR
- Souhaite mettre en place un programme de valorisation des produits forestiers et de développement des énergies alternatives
- Vante le futur programme de développement économique du PCC qui avantagerait les régions défavorisées
- Insiste sur le fait que les électeurs seront gagnants d’avoir enfin un député efficace, travaillant au sein du parti qui est au pouvoir
- Long bilan personnel d’implication environnementale et économique dans la région

JEAN-YVES ROY, BLOC QUÉBÉCOIS
- Il va tenter d’obtenir du gouvernement un programme de soutient de revenu pour les personnes agées qui perdent leur emploi
- Insiste sur le fait qu’il faut bloquer l’arrivée d’un gouvernement conservateur majoritaire; freiner l’idéologie du parti qui ne nous ressemble pas et protéger nos acquis sociaux qui seraient en péril sous les conservateurs selon M. Roy

LOUIS DRAINVILLE, PARTI VERT
- Prône l’achat local et une agriculture équilibrée, humaine, auto-suffisante pour la Gaspésie
- Mentionne qu’une gaspésie aux politiques vertes attirerait les jeunes et les investisseurs
- Biologiste et agronome originaire de Lanaudière, implication personnelle en énergies renouvelables (éolien surtout) et agronomie dans notre région

JULIE DEMERS, NPD
- Malheureusement invisible dans la campagne. La candidate du NPD semble être originaire de la Saskatchewan et habite présentement à Montréal.

LILIANE POTVIN
- Malheureusement invisible dans la campagne.

VISIBILITÉ GÉNÉRALE
Personnellement, j’habite Baie-des-Sables et je témoigne en tant que tel:

Débat = Annulé à cause de l’absence de J-Y Roy (Bloc). Extrêmement décevant, on dirait que M.Roy confirme l’idée circulant qu’il n’est pas très très présent sur le territoire…
Pancartes = Bloc et Conservateur
Téléphone pour sortir le vote = Bloc
Pamphlets explicatifs = Bloc, Vert, Libéral
Invitation à rencontrer le candidat pour discussion = Libéral
Visites à domicile = Aucune
Sites web = Tous sauf la candidate indépendante (sites étoffés = Libéral et Conservateur)

A day away from politics

I thought I’d have a day away from politics when I booked three seats on the SS Segwun for a cruise of Lake Muskoka today (October 8th). I wanted my cousins from Australia to see what Cottage Country looks like.

But when I heard on the news this morning that Britain was pouring $200 billion into taking over its biggest banks, and that central banks around the world were cutting interest rates, it was clear that no matter where I went, I wouldn’t escape the turmoil.

We boarded the Segwun at Gravenhurst just before noon, with a slight drizzle in the air. You couldn’t avoid hearing the election being discussed. Complimentary copies of the Toronto Star were being handed out:

Once on board, I chatted up a local man who was showing a German visitor the beauty of the Muskoka district. On the financial crisis, he had a comment of considerable wisdom: “Nobody knows what’s really going on.”

Gravenhurst is in the Parry Sound riding that Health Minister Tony Clement won by a razor thin margin in 2006. We had come up from Lagoon City, in the adjoining Simcoe North riding, where Tory Bruce Stanton is fighting to hold the seat against a strong challenge from Liberal Steve Clark.

As an indication of how winnable the Liberals think Simcoe North is, Stephane Dion has scheduled a visit to Orillia for Saturday morning.

A few tourists filled out the on-board complement on the Segwun. Here’s one:

On our return to Lagoon City, the news was all about Stephane Dion’s speech in Toronto today. His best line, apparently, was:  “We need to change course, we need to change the captain, we need to change the whole crew.”

Globe and Mail editorialist Adam Radwanski, blogging Dion’s speech, had this verdict: “The right speech to give right now.”

With the polls so volatile, it’s beginning to look like we’ll watch the election results from the edges of our chairs.

www.wildaboutwriting.com

Editorial: Cui bono?

Talk about something long enough, and it may just happen. Wish for something, and the universe may just listen and grant you your wish. Some would call it the underlying principle of The Secret; to others, it is merely a self-fulfilling prophecy.

In some ways this is how special-interest groups operate in order to drive public debate on their pet issues. They keep shining the spotlight on an issue in the hope of influencing people’s behaviour or attitudes. This, for example, is how wearing real fur has come to be considered gauche, and the global warming movement has been planting similar seeds in people’s minds.

Liberal leader Stéphane Dion has been driving his own mind-and-behaviour-altering campaign by talking incessantly about how sick the Canadian economy has become. Prime Minister Stephen Harper, realizing the effect that this could have on people and the economy, retorted that Mr. Dion was panicking and might actually trigger an economic crisis by repeatedly talking it down. It is for this reason that Mr. Harper has assumed a position some consider standoffish and even cold. When one political leader runs around like a headless chicken screaming “The sky is falling”, the other must step in and counteract any negative effect this will invariably have.
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Be wary of all parties promises

Excerpt from Oct. 8/08 RGE Monitor, written by highly regarded New York University professor and economist Nouriel Roubini.

“Canada, which only narrowly missed a recession in the first half of 2008, could, surprisingly, be the best off of the G7 in the coming months according to the IMF, but growth is at a standstill. With 25% of the economy dependent on U.S.- bound exports, Canada can’t decouple. Canada’s banks are relatively healthy, buttressed by the Bank of Canada’s liquidity provision  but higher credit costs will depress corporate profits. Meanwhile the slowing in the housing market might not unfold as benignly as some might hope and domestic demand, is slowing sharply as consumer confidence fades and household wealth suffers from asset price declines. Despite the candidates promises ahead of next week’s election, a fiscal deficit is in sights. “

Ride it out — there are no miracle cures

Voters must stop expecting the impossible from government:

If Mr. Harper comes up with his own new plan for the economy, he could be accused of improvising and will undercut his campaign, during which he has accused Mr. Dion of making up policy as he goes along. If he doesn’t acknowledge the Canadian economy is vulnerable and fails to offer a solution, he may be accused of a “what-me-worry” attitude, the kind of approach that appears to have hurt him in the wake of the debate.

Newsflash: There is no solution to be offered up by government. This is a crisis brought on by human behaviour, such as greed, and the only thing to do is to ride it out with as steady a hand on government as possible.

The crisis now affecting global markets was caused by nothing short of sheer stupidity, with one average American summing it up better than any of the Goldman Sachs economists and analysts:

“You can’t give an $8-an-hour worker a $500,000 home.”

Nor is this a time for experiments, as NDP candidate Tom King has explained:

“Here’s one little story,” he tells the captivated audience in his baritone campfire voice. It’s about Stéphane Dion’s “revenue neutral” Green Shift program. “I’m reminded of a guy with a horse,” he says. “He feeds that horse hay on one end, then walks to the other end and checks to see if he gets the same amount of hay out — and in the same form.”

Les meilleures répliques du débat en français

Vous retrouverez ici les répliques les plus marquantes qui ont été échangées par les principaux chefs de partis lors du débat en français.

Note : Malgré un effort certes louable de sa part, Mme May n’est pas présente ici en raison de la qualité déplorable de son français. C’est regrettable pour le Parti Vert et ses sympathisants, mais il y a des limites à vouloir être équitable ou, pour employer une expression populaire, à vouloir « accommoder raisonnablement. »

La réplique la plus marquante de M. Dion

À M. Duceppe : « Quand est venu le moment de reconnaître la nation québécoise, le bureau de M. Harper m’a consulté et nous avons fait cela de manière à montrer que l’on peut aussi faire partie de la nation canadienne; ce qui est un problème pour M. Duceppe. »

À M. Harper (à propos des mesures environnementales qu’il propose) : « Je pense qu’on perd notre temps à discuter du faux plan de M. Harper. Il n’y a pas un seul expert qui a dit que c’était un plan sérieux. »

À M. Layton (qui dit vouloir rapatrier les troupes d’Afghanistan dès maintenant) : « On a pris un engagement. Nos alliés comptent sur nous (…) C’est une responsabilité qu’on a, comme quand on a pris nos responsabilités pour Kyoto, c’est la même chose. »

La réplique la plus marquante de M. Duceppe

À M. Dion : « Nous avons proposé des projets, par exemple que le français soit la langue de travail dans les banques, les ports, les aéroports, les télécommunications. Le NPD nous a appuyés, mais pas les libéraux qui pourtant reconnaissent que la loi 101 est une grande loi canadienne. »

À M. Harper : « Tout ce que vous avez trouvé à faire ce sont des politiques qui enrichissent les pétrolières. Semble-t-il qu’aux dernières nouvelles, elles n’ont pas de misère à terminer leurs fins de mois. »

À M. Layton (qui l’accuse de vouloir privatiser la santé) : « Moi je veux que ce soit un système de santé publique, mais c’est au Québec de décider en tout temps. Je pense que les Québécois sont capables de prendre eux-mêmes leurs décisions et ils n’ont pas besoin du reste du Canada pour venir leur dire quoi faire. »

La réplique la plus marquante de M. Harper

À M. Dion : « Vous proposez d’augmenter les taxes avec votre nouvelle taxe sur le carbone. C’est une politique qui va détruire l’économie. »

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Ed Broadbent Rallies the Faithful in Kingston

Some 100 supporters greeted Ed Broadbent as he arrived at party headquarters from teaching his course on citizens and democracy at Queens University. Rick Downes, the Kingston and the Islands NDP candidate, introduced Broadbent. Downes said that Broadbent was the face of the NDP when he grew up. Broadbent said that the NDP has grown as it has attracted people from other parties. Even his own father, who was a Tory, saw the light in the 60s and joined the NDP.

broadbent

The social and economic problems we face now, Broadbent said in a rousing speech, started with the Liberals. In 1993 they were facing deficits and, unlike Clinton who raised taxes on the most wealthy and did not cut programs, Chretien slashed the programs that have yet to recover, he said. He ran in 2000 because he saw the effects of what the Liberals had done. When revenues returned tax breaks for the wealthy were given, the debt was paid down, but there was no action on many fronts, especially health and the environment.

Even now 7000 people in Ottawa are waiting for affordable housing. There is no national housing strategy. Why should anyone vote Liberal now, he said. He supported Jack Layton as a candidate early on as he was aware of his activism in Toronto on the housing and environmental fronts: “Jack was there on the environment before the Greens”. Broadbent said targeted tax cuts are needed in combination with an industrial strategy. Simply cutting corporate taxes, as the Tories are doing, does not help the economy, he said. He pointed to sectors like forest products and automotive as needing to be targeted. In closing he said that the NDP has had the best record of fiscal management. One need only look at the provinces where there have been NDP governments.

The French Debate: Harper Under Attack

It was a different seat for Stephen Harper this time around, being the incumbent PM and having to defend his policies instead of attacking others. How good a job did he do?

The beginning topic, the Economy, found Harper in general denial that Canada’s economy is anything but strong. As the subject of taxes on gasoline came up, Dion seemed to be intent on telling us how the demand from other countries would keep prices high, while Layton spoke about the need to help industries that are dependant on petroleum products to survive. Harper told us that he had done well by cutting the consumer taxes (GST), and Elizabeth May said this has done “nothing” for the consumer. My comment: “Yes, right, saving 2% on every litre of gas really deals with the incredible increase in the price per litre!”

There was a question about the listeriosis issue and food inspection. The high point in this part of the debate was when Gilles Duceppe asked Harper why the standards for exported foods were different (less frequent) for foods destined for distribution in Canada…

On the Environment issue, a questioner asked about having an independent agency created to deal with it. The overwhelming response from the others was about “leadership”, afterwhich May, Dion, Duceppe and Layton all complained about how Canada’s “leadership” on the issue is suspect among almost all other world leaders.

On Ethics in Politics and the House: This was the most fun part of the debate, that each one at the table look to the left and say something positive about the other potential leader sitting beside them and their experience with trying to work together. Poor Elizabeth May had Harper and had a difficult time trying to find something positive to say. The moderater had to cut her off, not because she was trying to be mean, but because she just came up empty. It was also entertaining to witness Steven Harper telling Jack that they had indeed found “some common ground”.

On Crime, the question was from a teacher from Dawson College, about gun control. While Harper, after fending off Layton on the issue, quickly changed the focus of the question towards his new crime bill, it set off another heated debate about the Conservative approach. Dion wanted to know HOW provinces would find the money to put more youth offenders in prisons, when there is already an issue over the number of prisons in each province lacking enough space and funding. May finished up by saying that it is funny that Harper wants to be tough on youth breaking laws, but he (Harper) only obeys the ones he agrees with. (She mentioned Kyoto and his own Fixed Election Law as examples).

On Healthcare: The debate became quickly about the fact that many Canadians do not have a family doctor. I guess this is the way to reduce hospital and emergency rooms problems. So all parties then focussed on the training and incentive issues for Canada to get more doctors. Elizabeth May brought up the issue of banning all chemicals which harm our health. Harper said he is on top of all of these issues. No one mentioned the issue for many immigrants to this country. How to make sure that qualified immigrants can efficiently cut through the present red tape to practice their professions when they arrive in Canada. This was a letdown for me….

Afghanistan: I do not think any leader said anything that has not been already heard a thousand times on this issue already.

Who won? Well I think it is sad that if you are a francophone in Québec, that if three out of five leaders are speaking in their second language, that some voters will pick the top two because of language. This language issue is what keeps dividing Canada, but it is also what makes us different than the United States, where debates happen in one language only. I love our bilingual and bicultural Canada! I love also, being a citizen of the World!

Stephen Harper Possessed by the Spirit of Bobby McFerrin?

On any given day, I’m left to wonder precisely who will show up to lead the Conservatives. One day, Conservative supporters will tell us that Harper is an economist with stellar credentials who is our only hope against an economic ill wind. The next day, these same pundits tell us that Canada’s economic challenges are entirely external and that Harper, as much as anyone else, is entirely powerless to help us in any way.

In an effort to decipher for myself the reality of the day, I sat down to watch an entire hour of coverage on CPAC showing Harper, in his own words. Sure, there was a lot of spit and polish on the man but, in the end, I was left with the abiding impression that Harper was possessed by the spirit of Bobby McFerrin. As he spoke, I could swear I could hear strains of Don’t Worry, Be Happy playing in the background.

I was virtually stunned into silence to hear Harper criticise the opposition leaders for having the temerity to mention that we might be suffering economic challenges ahead while, all the while, it’s an open secret that Harper called the election when he did because he was worried about a worsening economy.

I’m being non-partisan on this blog but, I hope, being non-partisan does not preclude me from expressing the fact that I’m dumbfounded by Harper’s seemingly incomprehensible behaviour…

Finally: Substance over sound bites

Congrats to Layton and Harper for proposing more time to discuss the economy. Let’s build on this idea for future election campaigns: have 4 debates, one a week on a major issue. Fifteen minutes is not enough time to explain a policy on the environment, healthcare, etc. but 2 or 3 hours should be. Hold one debate in each of the different regions of the country with one French language debate in Quebec. Our democracy would be better for it.

I just watched Jon Stewart’s comments on the US “Meltdown”. I laughed, I could not help it, not because the situation there is funny, especially for the average middle class citizen, but because I could laugh, feeling like “I certainly do not live in a rose garden” , but I live in Canada…

I am a lucky Canadian. I do not have any risky investments. I only stand to lose on the value of my house and as for my credit? Maybe I am feeling glad that it may become harder for me to live above my income… And no, since I have never worked for a large company which offered any pension plan, I am not any more worried about how and what I will retire with than I did before the great “Meltdown” on Wall Street.

Do I worry about my retirement? Yes! I have only my Canadian Government pension and please let whoever the government becomes next, not blow that away with imprudence based on a risk factor in the markets…

I am also a lucky Canadian because in spite of the fact that I am not rich, I have healthcare which I do not have to pay a minimun of $400 per month to have. I also do not take this for granted, every time I vote… I only hope other Canadians will not vote to have an ultra capitalist, privatized economy where your healthcare insurance company dictates what your healthcare will be according to your specific coverage and what they will allow.

I worked really hard to get my education as an adult student with no subsidies, but in my opinion education should be free for all students who are serious. This would make up for what we, in North America , are not doing by leading the way in technological innovation in world green development.

We are still in a good position in Canada to make Canada stay more like Canada and we should do this. We are not an ultra-capitalist society or economy. Karl Marx wrote before the corruption of socialism by communism, that eventually capitalism would reach an advanced state and ultimately would sow the seeds of its own destruction.

I think we are beginning to see this prophesy come true. It would be nice to see a more balanced planet, in general, one in which we all prosper and survive. Perhaps we are seeing signposts that this might just happen afterall.

Editorial: A Prescription for Canada

Every Canadian is familiar with this bon mot: When America has the sniffles, Canada comes down with the flu. It does not take a stretch of the imagination to figure out what will happen to the Canadian economy now that America has suffered a massive stroke, which will see the patient in intensive care, in an induced coma, for a long time to come.

Compared to the mess that once used to be the United States of America, Canada is still doing relatively fine. But it is just a matter of time before the American consumers’ inability to shop will seriously eat into Canadian companies’ profits and viability. Most of Canada’s exports are destined for the U.S., yet when Americans no longer have the spending power to buy those products, the Canadian economy could take a major hit.

One of the worst problem areas in Canada is Ontario. Its manufacturing sector has been eroded, with thousands of jobs having been lost in the automotive sector in particular. The provincial government and labour unions have been calling on the federal government to provide the necessary funds to prop up the ailing sector, but any financial injection would be a short-term solution only. Ontario’s problems are more of a structural, than a cyclical, nature: an excessive tax burden, out-of-control government spending and programs that are way too generous by anyone’s standards – not to mention the fact that the automotive sector is not what it used to be, nor will it ever return to its old grandeur.
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Pourquoi voter Bloc?

Accompagné par Gilles Duceppe à l’Université de Montréal, Pauline Marois a prononçé que le Bloc est utile parce qu’il poursuit le même but que le PQ : la souveraineté du Québec. Est-ce le point important dans la présente élection fédérale ? Je suis plus intéressé à savoir le plan l’économique du Bloc et ce qu’il propose de faire pour appuyer notre système de santé. Le NPD et les Conservateurs offrent des options très différentes. En termes pratiques, qu’est-ce que le Bloc nous offre ?

Editorial: What’s not to like about this election?

Canadians are inching towards the big election day on October 14, although most voters in this country are glued to their TV sets watching the terrible financial debacle in the United States unfold. One newspaper columnist has suggested that the Canadian election should be suspended until it can generate as much momentum and interest as the race south of the border. This is missing the point entirely, because the Canadian landscape is about to be altered in a very big way for a long time to come.

The U.S. race for the White House is of interest to Canadians, no doubt, if nothing else than for the historic first-time African-American candidate who seems to be winning the race, thus making the 2008 U.S. election a truly historic event to remember. Other than that, though, the campaign in the U.S. is driven by a crisis that no one would wish on their worst enemy. This is hardly the kind of momentum or interest that we in Canada should be wishing for.

The election in Canada is much more interesting for one single fact: it will change Canadian politics in a way as it never has before. The former Big Red Machine, the Liberal Party a.k.a. “Canada’s natural governing party” and now just a shadow of its former self, is at risk of being decimated on election day and could end up in third place behind the social-democratic NDP. Based on one of the most recent polls, the NDP has pulled to within four points of the Liberals, well within the margin of error. While having formed a number of provincial governments, the NDP has never managed to get anywhere close to real power in federal politics. With NDP leader Jack Layton’s popularity rising, way ahead of Stéphane Dion, the Liberal leader, this election could produce an unprecedented result for Canada’s social democrats.
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Michael Byers: The Tar Sands

Michael Byers, (NDP Candidate – Vancouver Center), very passionately told an audience today the tar sands should be shut down. It is not the official position of the NDP, who want a moratorium on the pace of the tar sands development, pending studies on the environment.

However, there are many voices in this country, sending distress signals using the internet, that want the tar sands development to stop, yes stop, now, because it has become “the dirtiest oil on the planet”.

If one pauses before thinking the thought “that no matter what the cost, the world needs oil and Canada needs to be richer in the world”, then maybe it is possible to think about the kind of planet this will be if we ruin it for our children and theirs.

Surely if humans survived on this planet in previous centuries and millenia without such a huge dependence on oil, we can figure out a way to do it again before it is too late…

Toronto-Danforth: Interview with Andrew Lang

continuing in the theme of trying to figure out who i should spend my vote on this election i sat down and spoke to Andrew Lang, the local Liberal candidate here in toronto-danforth.

i wanted to know why he was running, Jack’s lead seems pretty much insurmountable, but if anyone has a chance (and, let’s be honest… it’s a very small chance) it is the liberal candidate. i’m no historian but i’m pretty sure the Liberals managed to hold this riding for a good long while prior to Jack re-winning it for the NDP, but still, the NDP took this riding by more than 7000 votes last time.

Andrew was straightforward when i asked him about his chances, sincerely hoping that Jack continued to think he has this riding in the bag as it lets him continue to wage political guerrilla warfare (my words, not his) against Jack. in Andrew’s view Jack and the NDP have taken local matters in toronto-danforth for granted, aren’t impressing local voters with their showboating on the campaign trail (is eliminating ATM fees the best thing we can find to talk about during an election?), and above all… torontonians are scared silly of another Harper government. regardless of the outcome, Andrew is convinced that the local race will be close, much closer than Jack or the NDP anticipates.

i’ve never really considered actually voting liberal, i’m usually a little too left wing for that, but Stéphane Dion does seem to be more of the type of person i’d like to see as prime minister, a fact that Andrew was quick to sense in our talk and emphasize. he argues that Dion is the only real leader in this race, whereas Harper and Layton are one man shows, that Dion is sensible and progressive with respect to social policy, and that the Liberals have a track record of a strong economy. it is all pretty much what you’d expect, but i did get the sense that Andrew was sincere in his argument for Stéphane. i even believed that he was sincere when he said Stéphane is a strong leader, despite reports to the contrary.

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Economy front and centre

With the US experiencing a debt hangover, when are we going to hear about the biggest risk to our prosperity: the federal debt of $460 Billion.

It is likely that interest rates will rise as credit markets tighten further and inflation increases. A 2% rise in rates will cause debt servicing to rise $9 Billion, or to $38 Billion, eliminating the surplus. Everyone is on the spending bandwagon, I want to hear what the plan is to repay the debt?

This morning I had the opportunity to talk for a few minutes to the Conservative candidate in the riding of St-Laurent-Cartierville.  Dennis Galiatsatos, told me that he has been going door to door in the riding and the issue which seems to be the most important is “taxes”.  

Let’s face it, we all hate “taxes”.  I said to the candidate,  “But taxes go hand-in-hand with services and people are also complaining about service cuts.”

The candidate replied to me, that he is totally aware of how voters seem to want their bread buttered on both sides….

I am asking, now, how it is we can have the kind of population who do not understand the relationship between taxes and services.   Afterall,  personal  income tax has come down since 2004 and Canada’s budgetary surplus.  But everyone complains about underfunding in so many areas!  Although complaints are especially about our most expensive program, Healthcare, (which the average US citizen has to pay a minimun of $500 per month for from their own take home pay), complaints about so many other issues which are often governed by provinces, cities and municipalities are also made.    Oh yes, and gasoline taxes!  Whose responsibility is that?

I look at the very privatized and unregulated US economy now and think, “Here is one of the most powerful countries in the world.  And now, with a laissez-faire approach to their economy, is now finding themselves facing bankruptcy. 

To close,  I would rather pay my share of taxes and have services I need in a somewhat regulated economy.  I also want to see monitoring of some of the most important resources we have to keep us afloat as an independant, parliamentary democracy.  That is also why I support and will continue to support the New Democratic Party.


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