I spent a good part of today and yesterday running errands in my downtown neighbourhood. On both occasions the only canvassing I saw was for the Greens. In both instances it was a pair of Green supporters. It’s all rather low key.

And low key is the way I would capture this entire campaign. Dunno what it’s like elsewhere in Soviet Canuckistan, but out here there’s alot of election fatigue. Going back to 2004

• 2004 Federal election
• 2004 Municipal election
• 2005 Provincial election
• 2006 Federal election
• 2008 Federal election (Oct)
• 2008 Provincial by-election (Oct)
• 2008 Municipal election (Nov)
• 2009 Provincial election (May)

So here in Vancouver’s West End that’ll be 8 elections in 5 years–and 3 in a period of about 6 weeks this year. Even for us political nerds it’s hard to get too enervated by it all.

At the ballot box those sentiments could pan out in a number of ways. Many fence sitters might decide to stay home instead. Some will snark vote: either vote for the Tories to give someone a majority and to get some peace, or do the Anything But Harper schtick and try to support the local candidate best positioned to keep the Cons out. And there’s always the FYou vote, which in BC was NDP for a long time, then Reform/Alliance, but now seems splintered between the Dippers and Greens. Though I expect a lot of Greens will split towards the Liberal or New Democrat who can win in their consituency.

Vancouver Centre–OK I’ll call it. Michael Byers squeaks out a <1, 000 vote plurality over Hedy.

Unless she romps it again….

I went to North Vancouver’s all candidates meeting on Wednesday night and was left with a few impressions (side note: there’s a prediction on the winner of this – and several other – ridings at the end).

 1. Compared to the 2006 debate at the same venue, the crowd was incredibly respectful. Despite being marginally pro-Saxton (though from my vantage point I may not have been able to gauge audience reaction entirely accurately), there was only one moment of heckling, which was over before the debate was 5 minutes old.

2. Don Bell knows what plays and what doesn’t in the riding. Bell is an old pro, probably running his last campaign, who is putting up a heck of a fight in a right leaning riding. He can come off as awkward from time to time double checking his policy notes and stumbling over his words. However, the answers he does provide (including the best joke of the night) show an inherent knowledge of North Vancouver’s electorate. Don Bell knows North Vancouver and North Vancouver knows Don Bell.

3. All the subtleties that Don Bell knows about North Vancouver, Andrew Saxton doesn’t. He’s a new comer, it shows and North Vancouver doesn’t like newcomers – just ask Warren Kinsella. He was awkward, caught in contradictions once or twice and really fell off the wagon towards the end of the night as his jokes fell flat and his short, pointed answers, turned into meandering forays into a party platform he wasn’t entirely familiar with and a defensive answer about missing debates and failing to fill out questionnaires. Saxton has the potential to do well. He may win this election, but in a few more years he’ll be a much better candidate with a much better understanding of North Vancouver’s fussy electorate. Let’s hope that the local Conservatives don’t eat their own and give Mr. Saxton a second chance should he require one.

4. Jim Stephenson was not nearly as good as he was in 2006, but was still a pleasure to watch. A great understanding of his party’s platform and a very engaging style proved him to be the most likable candidate on stage. Perhaps resigned to a third place finish, the most interesting moments of the night were the little bones he kept throwing the Liberals.

5. I’m looking very much forward to the NDP candidates next film – he fought the good fight. He had nothing to lose and it showed, still good for him to show up. In 2006 the NDP candidate missed this debate because she was recovering from exhaustion in hospital. The Libertarian candidate, well, she sure didn’t hold back (and good on the audience for respecting her for that).

 6. This debate reminded me of why Don Bell won this riding in 2004 and 2006, and why he’s going to be the victor on October 14th, that’s right I’m calling it. Don Bell, North Vancouver – Liberal HOLD, but not by much.

7. While I’m here, I’ll also make a few more calls: West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast -STSC, oh the anticipation….John Weston, Conservative PICKUP by a country mile, but not a majority. Vancouver Centre…Hedy Fry Liberal HOLD, with a reasonable plurality – 2-4th may be seperated by no more than a point.

 If anything comes up in the next few days I’ll be back…

I had a Dr.’s appointment in Kerrisdale this afternoon. My journey from work (1st and Boundary) to West Boulevard took me along Broadway, up Nanaimo, across 33rd–must of it the Vancouver Kingsway riding (VK).

VK is of course the riding of David Emerson. Paul Martin convinced Emerson to run for the Grits. Once Martin went down to Harper in 2006, Emerson went from “Stephen Harper is teh evil” to “sure dude, I’ll totally be your minister.” Many in the riding were choked about this–and still are.

So you’d think there’d be little support for the Tories in VK, right? Well if signs are…a sign of anything, there’s a lot of Blue (Cons.) in that there riding. There’s also a lot of Orange (NDP) and Red (Lib.). A lot of each. Here’s a bit on each candidate:

Salomon Rayek is a businessman who runs an import/export business.

Wendy Yuan is the CEO of Bradley Pacific.

Don Davies is a lawyer specializing in human and worker rights.

Doug Warkentin is a researcher engineer and environmental entrepreneur.

I found the rich swarths of colour profoundly moving. If only every riding was as engaged!

There’s been a slew of all-candidates’ meetings as of late; haven’t made it to one. Darned job!

Some allege Lorne Mayencourt (Cons.) is withdrawing via passive participation, skipping a number of events that his competitors are all attending. Many have been impressed by both Carr (Green) and Byers (NDP), in terms of their performances on the hustings. But by far, what I’m hearing most is:

What are the polling numbers in the riding, so I can decide how to vote?

Not for whom, but how. Because many see this election as the most contestable since 1993. No one I’ve met thinks Carr could win the first elected Green seat in Canada–but would vote for her if it didn’t increase Mayencourt’s chances via progressive vote splitting. Many more would love to vote for Byers, but fear the same thing. In fact, some who voted for Svend Robinson in 2006 because of his work on queer rights are much more afraid of Mayencourt squeaking in due to a split vote.

I had hoped to vote in the advance polls, but I too am waiting to see what the numbers on the ground say. I would vote for Byers if he has a chance of knocking incumbent Liberal Hedy Fry out of her seat–even though I prefer a carbon tax to the NDP’s gotta-protect-labour-jobs-no-matter-what alternative. I’d even vote for Carr if she was close to Fry and ahead of the others.

Polling numbers for Van Centre s’il vous plaît….

This afternoon I received an email from the local Conservative campaign. It brought up several interesting points which I’d like to address here.

 

On Campaign Literature:

The Weston Campaign email mocked the on-the-ground organization of the Liberal, Green and NDP candidates. Of specific note, there was the suggestion that no literature has been mailed out by any of the major parties. It’s an interesting point, and I was planning on writing something about it anyway. While I don’t know what date, specifically, the note was written, my experience is significantly different than the one expressed by the Weston Campaign email.

 

While I haven not, to date, received any NDP literature, I don’t recall ever receiving any NDP literature in this riding – very much a non-issue (and I don’t know that if I were the Conservatives I’d necessarily be gloating about this– the more strong campaigns around to split the vote, the better).

 

The Liberals have managed to provide literature in a mail out in my neighbourhood. While aesthetically reasonable on the outside, it’s poorly designed, bland and amateurish inside and on the back – I find this a bit shocking as it looks to be a simple template, how do you screw up a template?. In short, it looks as though it was thrown together at the last second (which undoubtedly it was given the late nomination of the candidate). Because the Liberals got in the game late, they had to choose a template (again assuming) for the flyers loaded with information on the platform, history and the candidate which, really, makes the brochure daunting for anyone looking for quick hits about the candidate or party. However, at least they got something out before advanced polling unlike some parties (see above, below). Quick note: it says a lot that I’m complaining about a party giving me too much info, doesn’t it.

 

Blair Wilson’s campaign/office has provided my area of the riding with several mail outs – one a slick looking effort, which was very accessible. Clear, plain language combined with a simple premise – though a little light on party platform…and really, if you were going to highlight anything, would it be your proposed raising of the GST? Nonetheless, easily the best literature I’ve received during the campaign. We also received a riding update after the writ dropped (though published before Blair joined the Greens) which was timed very well.

 

On to the Conservative Campaign, from whom I have yet to receive any literature from whatsoever. Well, that’s not exactly true. I have received information from their North Vancouver candidate (quite the publication I might add) and 20 percenters 2-3 times a week from Lee Richardson’s office. All that comes to mind is that before casting stones at the ineptitude of your opponents, perhaps one ought to consider making sure that they are aware of the boundaries of one’s own riding…I suppose it’s still possible that I’ll receive some information (perhaps waiting for the platform to be released) before voting day. However, none of this is particularly useful for those of us that have already voted. Bravo.

 

On Vandalism:

Beyond the normal mischief associated with vandalizing campaign signs, the Conservatives have charged that there has “been politically targeted” vandalism against them in West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – STSC. It’s quite obvious that the same is true of the Liberals in both that riding and North Vancouver as well – I’m sure that the Greens and NDP have also had some similar experience. I particularly find such action distasteful when involving signs on private property and hope that those who enjoy defacing signs at least respect private property and the right of citizens to express their choice for MP.

 

I bring this up mostly because of the news coming out of Toronto regarding vandalism to the homes of Liberal supporters. Let’s hope that the silliness here doesn’t progress to anything beyond throwing a sign in a bush (and that the box cutters that have been cutting up Liberal and Conservative signs are put away for the remainder of the campaign).

 

One final note. Things seem to be tightening up, ever so slightly on the ground in both North Shore ridings– it almost (ALMOST) feels like there’s a fight a-brewin’ in West Van-Sunshine Coast-STSC and perhaps Don Bell’s campaign has found some strength and traction. We’ll see, I suspect that a Liberal charge is likely too little too late, assuming they can even maintain the trickle of momentum they have managed the last few days.

On a fecund Sunday the husband and I were clicking around when we chanced upon JoyTV, our regional Christish (rather than Christian) channel here in the Lower Mainland. The show was some interview chat thing hosted by a rather self-involved young man. Who spliced in onanistic “reflections” on politics and voting between the actual interview/chat portions of the show. This was apparently a recast of a live show on Vision TV from last week.

We don’t have–many, at least–theocratic evangelicals in Canada. I have a few friends who are Saved and while we don’t agree on all things we also are quite OK at finding commonalities between us, yes even when one of us is a sodomite. It’s one of the things I love about Soviet Canuckistan: we generally can get our heads around the difference between what “affects me” and what “upsets me.”

But I digress…

The show caught my attention because it featured a one-on-one interview with Green leader Elizabeth May and all-about-me dude. She was impressive: easygoing, forthright, sensible, gutsy. I loved her speaking out in favour of social justice and secular pluralism as a Christian herself. I think dude was a bit scared of her. Too right.

Among the subsequent panelists were reps from each of the 4 main parties (ici, ce n’est pas le Bloc…they weren’t interested). Two of the reps are Vancouver Centre candidates: NDP Michael Byers and Tory Lorne Mayencourt. Byers came across and bright but a bit like a pit bull; Mayencourt when from silly to incomprehensible in about 30 seconds. If Grits can abandoned the Liberals because of Dion, every self-respecting Conservative in this riding should leave Mayencourt high and dry himself.

Byers hammered the Liberal candidate for Dion’s passive support of the Tories this last session of Parliament. Green dude hammered Mayencourt’s rather tragic claims to the Tory’s having a credible environmental policy. No one came across as awesome, but Lorne was by far the loser.

The debates are gonna be interesting….

In the bag

In Vancouver East Libby Davies is winning the sign wars for the Dippers. But then again, it is perhaps the safest NDP seat in the country and she’s incredibly well respected by pretty much everyone. Including those who disagree with her. Another romp methinks.

Not Sarah Palin’s Alaska

And while the “culture wars” issue doesn’t seem to have much traction here in BC, its impact on the campaign Québec certainly has. And it’s unfortunate that relatively few here have seen the brilliant anti-Tory ad running là-bas. It’s in French, but I found a version with subtitles:

[Can’t embed the video here, but you can find it here with English subtitles: here.

The premise is simple: a québécois musician (Michel Rivard, formerly of Beau Dommage a 70s folks-rock act) seeks funding from an all anglophone ostensibly Merkunized government panel. Take note of the photos in the background: Heritage Minister Josée Verner and Harper with an American flag behind him.

The panel hears a series of malapropisms in the canonical «La complainte du phoque en Alaska» : phoque (seal, as in the animal) for fuck; p’tit (petit, or small) for tits; à faire (to do) for (an extramarital) affair. Their outrage and umbrage lead to y a big read REJECT stamp on the funding application.

Whatever you think of Québec nationalism (Rivard is an old skool sovereigntist) or government funding for culture, this is an entertaining, clever and very effective ad. Shame we don’t get things of this calibre in TROC.

Majority report

The Tories seem to have stalled in Québec. With no scope to grow significantly in Atlantic Canada or the Prairies and only a little scope in BC, Harper needs a lot of pickups in Québec and/or Ontario. They would need a net gain of about 20 seats across the country. They won 11 in la belle province in 2006, but there doesn’t seem to be the scope to pick up more than a handful. In Ontario they’d need to pick some up in or around Toronto. Again a tough sell

If you look at the unimpressive profile of Dion, if Harper can’t get a majority now he never will. Nor the Tories until he’s gone.

Michael Byers, (NDP Candidate – Vancouver Center), very passionately told an audience today the tar sands should be shut down. It is not the official position of the NDP, who want a moratorium on the pace of the tar sands development, pending studies on the environment.

However, there are many voices in this country, sending distress signals using the internet, that want the tar sands development to stop, yes stop, now, because it has become “the dirtiest oil on the planet”.

If one pauses before thinking the thought “that no matter what the cost, the world needs oil and Canada needs to be richer in the world”, then maybe it is possible to think about the kind of planet this will be if we ruin it for our children and theirs.

Surely if humans survived on this planet in previous centuries and millenia without such a huge dependence on oil, we can figure out a way to do it again before it is too late…

and the Liberals become an endangered species? First, let me apologize for not posting recently, I have been out of town for the last few days. But, good on you readers for keeping the discussion going in the comments section. I’m just going to post a few random thoughts (nothing substantive, but hey that’s nothing new from me) as campaigns and issues are now coming into focus.

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky:

Everybody but John Weston seems to be fading quietly into the night. By no means is he setting the world ablaze with his campaign, but he seems to be quietly running a smooth campaign with a solid ground presence in both West Van and North Van, bad news for the Libs. The Liberals have been virtually invisible, particularly in West and North Van where they have to win big to be competitive in the riding. That’s not to say that Ian Sutherland isn’t a competent candidate, he is. Nor is it to say that he can’t make in roads in Squamish, he can. It’s just that he needs to maintain the party’s traditional areas of strength and that doesn’t seem to be too likely. The NDP have recovered from the Dana Larsen experiment with a solid (on paper) local Sunshine Coast candidate that may be able to stop any vote bleed that may have been perceived prior to the election. With the NDP seemingly on an upswing in the province maybe they’ll even be able to pick up a few more votes than last time. The Greens, well after an interesting first few days, they have managed to fall into their regular role. I’m convinced Wilson will pull a good number for the party (up to 20% if the Greens can regain some momentum in the debates). On the whole, minus a massive shift, you can count this a Tory pickup.

North Vancouver:

I’m of the mind that you just can’t count out Liberal incumbent Don Bell. It’s been said before and is worth repeating, people vote as much for Don Bell as they vote for the Liberal brand. Consequently, I would expect a competitive Liberal result. It’ll be interesting to see what impact, if any, the arts funding debate has in this riding, as the local movie industry has played a major role in Bell’s two victories. Nonetheless, I would expect that this too ought to be considered a Conservative pickup on voting day – just don’t be too surprised if it’s called late. On a side note, the local NDP have been putting up “Jack Layton and the NDP team” signs, in place of those for the local candidate (admittedly the candidate does have a few of his own). Given that the candidate, Michael Charrois, is relatively unknown outside of the Arts community, this may be beneficial in growing party support – or it may marginalize the candidate. Either way, Charrois will ensure that Arts funding continues to be discussed (I’m not generalizing here at all, really…).

(more…)

According to The Now, Surrey Mayor Dianne Watts is lobbying to change the balance of Federal and municipal funding for the police.

Surrey Mayor Dianne Watts is urging the feds to cough up more cash to help cities across Canada cope with rising policing costs.

A motion endorsed by Metro Vancouver’s mayor’s committee calls on the federal and provincial governments to change the cost-sharing formula for policing for cities with populations over 15,000.

Currently, the split is 90-10, with cities and municipalities picking up the bulk of the tab.

I presume this means that Watts believes the police are underfunded, and doesn’t want to take the blame for raising taxes locally.

More of Raven’s writings can be found at Fumbled Mumblings.

Well that’s a first: Hedy Fry out on the street campaigning. This morning on Nelson Street, adjacent to Nelson Park. If you’re supposed Honk 4 Hedy…I could hear the birds singing instead.

Well…she’s probably done this sort of thing before–several times before. But over the last 2 elections I’ve seen her more doing all-candidates meetings and a few high profile events to shore up her gay boy diva fan gurls (I’m a gay gurl guy…relax). Between 01 and 09 October there’s almost one all-candidates meeting a day, targetting queers, at-risk and street-involved youth, seniors, and families. As the campaign ratchets up a few notches each week I expect to see more of each candidate.

No sign (heh heh) of anyone else with regards to signs: Fry and Liberals are way ahead in total numbers. However that’s largely because a handful of houses in the West End (own West End house=buckets o’ cash=Liberal. Or Tory) are smothered in Liberal red. Still haven’t seen any signs for Mayencourt (Tories), Byers (Dippers) or Carr (Greeners). But sometimes those are rolled out en masse with about 3 weeks to go.

I find the buzz around Mayencourt perplexing. He’s not exactly wildly popular–having only won his MLA seat by 17 votes in the last provincial election–but the press are treating him like a star candidate. *scratches head*

A lot worse today then they were yesterday and yesterday it wasn’t very good…As has been reported on tonight’s The National, the NDP Candidate, Dana Larsen, was sacked today. If you’re interested in the details, I recommend catching a repeat of the show on Newsworld (or CBC if it’s still early where you live). In short, it involved copious amounts of drugs and a video camera. Frankly, Jack Layton didn’t have much of a choice – smoking a little pot is one thing, this was another entirely. On the one hand, I think that this is a loss for the politics of pot (not something near and dear to my heart, but something worth a good debate). On the other hand, it gives the NDP an opportunity to reassess their goals, strengths and weaknesses in the riding. Should they consider a candidate from North or West Vancouver that may grow support at the south end of the riding, while risking some support in their more traditional strength on the Sunshine Coast? Alternatively, they can choose a candidate with connections to unionists in Squamish in the hope of regaining a more traditional voting bloc. Or, they can stick with the status quo and choose a Sunshine Coast resident in the hopes of consolidating their support in the only part of the riding where they have shown consistent strength in the last two elections.

My feeling is that if the NDP want to stay relevent in the riding, a task which may be difficult anyway given three legitimate (if uninspiring) candidates now with almost a two week head start, they should choose the latter option. This election does not seem to be fertile ground for NDP gains in this riding (they never do, really – the big NDP gains in West Van – Sunshine Coast – STSC during the 2004 election are attributable to new boundaries). The NDP need a strong local (to the Sunshine Coast) candidate to maintain a foothold until next time. Even a strong candidate at this point would be hard pressed to maintain the 20% that the NDP managed in both 2004 and 2006. So, where do these freed votes go?

So, an Angus Reid poll on Saturday had the Greens at 26% in BC, which, I would suspect, makes Blair Wilson competitive in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast – I’m not saying it’s an outlier, but… I would never make any predictions based on one poll (a Harris-Decima pole puts them at 8% today), but if the number holds up I may have to change my tune a bit. Nothing is ever impossible in contrarian British Columbia. Needless to say, I’ll get back to it in the coming days. I was going to write about the North Shore candidates. I still will, but it requires research and therefore time, which I don’t have, so in the meantime I’m going to talk about election signs on the North Shore.

Election signs are funny things, in so far as most everyone considers them, at best, an eyesore. Yet, come an election, everyone goes out driving to see who has more up, some people I know base their votes on the number of signs, colour of signs and aesthetic appeal of signs. Signs can tell us something about an election. Throughout a campaign one can tell the organization level of the candidates on their ability to get signs up and maintain them. Signs can even indicate support in a riding, if you’re careful to only acknowledge those signs on private property. Publicly displayed signs offer little more insight than a spitting contest. That said, after a week of the campaign what can we say about signs on the North Shore.

NDP – There are none (that’s not exactly true, I saw one Jack Layton bag sign hiding under a Conservative 4×4 – though location counts, across from the Wheat Pool, well done). Even long-time NDP holdouts in my neighbourhood are lacking their signs. Realistically, this isn’t a big surprise. The NDP has strength in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast, but not much at the south end (ie West Vancouver). They probably believe that it serves them better to concentrate their money around Squamish and the Northern reaches of the riding where NDP votes are concentrated and potentially under pressure. In North Vancouver, the NDP is little more than a rump focused around lower Lonsdale. Don’t get me wrong, provincially this is a solid block that makes the BC Liberals work for the riding. Federally, they’re the equivalent of a lone voice in the wilderness (yay hate mail).

(more…)

Why is West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast an important riding in this election? Well, because it’s one of those “swing” ridings, that every news agency in Canada is keeping tabs on in the majority yes or no sweepstakes. However, what marks West Vancouver apart is that its incumbent MP is running for the Green Party. In the coming days what you will find here is a profile of each of the major local campaigns and the impact of the national campaigns. In the meantime, a brief thought on Blair Wilson joining the Greens (only two weeks after the fact, but still moderately imporant)…

For those of you unfamiliar with Blair Wilson and wondering if he offers the Greens a shot of winning the riding, I’m sorry to disappoint you. Realistically, he may offer a top result for the Greens nationally, but there’s a reason the Liberals didn’t want him back after questions about this election financing and personal finances came to light. Despite being cleared of serious allegations, the damage had been done. The story was played to death in the local media and the history of Blair Wilson is now common knowledge across the Lower Mainland and his short term political career at a very likely end. However, that is not to say that the Green Party and Blair Wilson are a bad marriage, quite the contrary in fact. Wilson has already paid a small dividend, given his part in getting the Green’s into the debate (though, Jack Layton is deserving of some thanks for that too).

The medium-long term benefit, though, may be much greater. In Eastern Canada, where this story has never been ‘water cooler talk’, he offers some legitimacy to the party as a sitting(albeit for a week) Green member of parliament. Combined with participation in the debates, this has the potential to offer the Greens more votes across the country which, in turn, means more federal funding. For a party the size of the Greens, that’s important. For Wilson, it offers a better funded campaign and a built-in base from which to start and grow. Expect a much stronger Green result than in 2006 – though Blair, quick piece of advice, don’t use water soluble markers for your ‘authorized by’ lines on your campaign signs, it’s Vancouver, it gets wet here.

What I’m trying to say is that despite only sitting for a week as a Green member, Blair Wilson may have provided his new party, at least in part, with the means for their long-awaited breakthrough next time around – because this time it seems dubious, not impossible, much stranger things have happened. Though even if all he does is help get the Greens into the debate, that’s a legacy that goes well beyond anything he was able to do in the Liberal cuacus. In the meantime, however, his candidacy means that West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country is John Weston’s and the Conservatives to lose, but more on that next time.

Before I go, I would like to express my best wishes for a speedy recovery to Liberal incumbent Don Bell of North Vancouver. On Monday September 8th he suffered a heart attack and though he was released from hospital Friday the 12th, the campaign trail is not the ideal place to get healthy again. Here’s to a speedy recovery.

Since the mid-90s, Canada’s Urban Voters have taken refuge in the bosom of the Liberal Party of Canada: a Fiscally Conservative, Socially Liberal outfit that won brownie points from the citizens of cities by offering an intoxicating combination of tax cuts and progressive social policies. With a divided Right and no credible threat on the Left, the Liberals moved into the vacuum at the Centre-Right and dominated for a decade.

Unfortunately for the Party, it moved the entire Canadian Electorate with it, to the point that even the NDP acknowledges that budget deficits are a non-starter. With a rebuilt Right-Wing party and two credible Left-Wing outfits, the Liberals are now effectively in No-Man’s Land. In 2006, only Urban Voters’ fears of a secret Social Conservative agenda prevented the complete destruction of the Liberal Party. And with voters’ increasing familiarity with Stephen Harper, even these fears are being dispelled, albeit slowly.

The race in Vancouver Centre represents a microcosm of the Federal Election. An unpopular MP representing a strong brand (at least locally) in incumbent Liberal Hedy Fry going up against personally popular Lorne Mayencourt of the ‘not-to-be-trusted’ Conservatives. Also bringing strong challenges from the Left are former BC Green Party Head Adrienne Carr and respected UBC professor Michael Byers.

The last election demonstrated the strength of the Liberal brand in Urban Canada as Hedy Fry easily held her seat against a determined Svend Robinson of the NDP.

Vancouver Centre 2006 Election Results

Candidate	Party	Vote Count
Hedy Fry		25013
Svend Robinson		16374
Tony Fogarassy		11684
Jared Evans		334

Mayencourt obviously believes that he has a realistic shot at winning the seat as he vacated a cushie MLA job to pursue the Federal equivalent. And if he’s right, it could spell a long election-night for the Liberals.

We’ll be following this one closely.

As one of the flagship ridings across Canada, Van Centre often gets a lot of airplay during elections. Excepting one by-election half a century ago, the Tories and Grits have each ostensibly “owned” it at one time or another. In 1988 Conservative Kim Campbell won the seat by a fistful of votes over the NDP’s Johanna ten Hertog. By 1992 Campbell was Prime Minister; by 1993 she was out on her keester in the Chrétien sweep that brought Hedy Fry to the seat. Campbell wasn’t even in Parliament long enough to earn an MP’s pension and Fry’s still ensconced in the seat 15 years later.

Over the last few elections, however, the Tories have slipped down to third in this densely populated, mixed profile riding. While many associate Van Centre with thousands of condos (and there are lots), there’s also a lot of rental housing in the West End and part of the riding includes False Creek South and butts up against the Downtown East Side. Since 1997 Fry has handily held this seat for the Grits with 3000+ vote margins. In the 2006 election Svend Robinson tried to launch a comeback, finishing second behind Fry. I did some work for the NDP during that election (I’m no longer a member though) and it was shocking how many long-time NDP members refused to support Svend.

For this election there’s a lot of star power on the ballot here. The candidates for the 4 main parties here are:

Hedy Fry (Lib)
Lorne Mayencourt (Con)
Michael Byers (NDP)
Adriane Carr (Green)

Aside from Fry, the Tories have acclaimed Lorne Mayencourt, the polarizing Liberal MLA for the riding. Mayencourt squeaked back into his seat in the last provincial election by less than 100 votes: his absence from the city whilst working on a drug treatment pet project in Northern BC hasn’t endeared him to residents. Nor has his obsession with “aggressive pandhandling–an obsession that earned him a whack in the face from a street person after Mayencourt harassed the poor man for several blocks.

Michael Byers is the sort of “name” candidate the Dippers have been trying to land for years. Rumour has it Byers convinced Jack Layton to give the previously acclaimed candidate the heave-ho. Byers is a political scientist at UBC, well respected internationally, eloquent and passionate.

Adriane Carr was the leader of the BC Greens, but Elizabeth May convinced to become federal Deputy Leader. Carr finished second twice in provincial elections, by far the strongest result for the party in BC provincially. But that was in Powell River-Sunshine Coast–not citified Vancouver Centre.

Some think Byers is the kind of candidate to convinced non-Dion fans among the Grits to give the Dippers enough swing to win the seat. Others see a 3 way leftish vote split handing the seat to Mayencourt. Many others still think Fry’s got the edge.

Stay tuned!