As the politicians make their final pleas for our votes, let’s remember that no matter who wins tomorrow life goes on. Canada will still be the greatest country in the world as long as we vote with conviction for our candidate and party of choice. Happy Thanksgiving! 

Whatever the result on Tuesday, this election continues the downward spiral of political discourse in Canada. Gone are the days of big ideas like Medicare, Just Society and Free Trade, where debate raged on the merits of the programs, and criticism of leaders was based on their actions, not their personality, physical quirks or “spin”character assassination. While in the past politicians may have disagreed on policy, and even disliked each other, they at least appeared to respect each other enough to be civil in public and when conducting the business of government. Partisanship is one thing, vitriol quite another.

Now politics and elections have degenerated to personal attacks and characterizations of leaders intentions, and sloganeering, with little substantive discussion of policies or ideas. As a result, respect no longer exists between opponents, the willingness to compromise is not evident, and therefore the government ceases to function effectively. Its no longer business, its personal. Why has this happened and what are the consequences?

We have not only imported negative campaigning from the US, but have taken to focusing on “the leader”. Except we are not electing a president, we are electing a party/team to run a government. No question the leader is important, but not to the exclusion of everything else. So we hear too much about Harper, Dion, Layton and May, which supports an environment for personal attacks, than we do about party policies and teams (Only the Liberals tried this for a short time when things were not going well). Combined with negative campaigning, where the focus is simply to attack your opponent as opposed to proposing solutions of your own, emotion is trumping reason, and the soundbite is trumping real information.

The consequences are 1) party leaders who have been denigrated to such an extent that all suffer from a lack of wide spread public respect and trust. As a result, many self-respecting individuals with ability decline to seek public office 2) voter apathy with 35% of the population not voting (although an unrepresentative electoral system also hurts)       3) 40% of the voters in Quebec have declined to participate in the governing of Canada by supporting the Bloc whose primary goal is to breakup the country 4) a media focused on the horserace (who is winning or losing) and trying to “even things out” to keep the race going, instead of critically evaluating  and communicating party policies to the public. This leads to soundbites and spin, as opposed to ideas.

The only way to stop this negativity is for voters to demand better. We need to encourage positive behavior from all participants (including the media) and challenge them when they do not meet our expectations and do their job. And I mean challenge all of them, those we support as well as those we don’t. The sooner we return civility and respect to our politics, the sooner we focus on ideas and not personalities, the better our country will be in the end.

Excerpt from Oct. 8/08 RGE Monitor, written by highly regarded New York University professor and economist Nouriel Roubini.

“Canada, which only narrowly missed a recession in the first half of 2008, could, surprisingly, be the best off of the G7 in the coming months according to the IMF, but growth is at a standstill. With 25% of the economy dependent on U.S.- bound exports, Canada can’t decouple. Canada’s banks are relatively healthy, buttressed by the Bank of Canada’s liquidity provision  but higher credit costs will depress corporate profits. Meanwhile the slowing in the housing market might not unfold as benignly as some might hope and domestic demand, is slowing sharply as consumer confidence fades and household wealth suffers from asset price declines. Despite the candidates promises ahead of next week’s election, a fiscal deficit is in sights. “

Surprise! Approached by a couple of Conservative workers outside Maxi. (they are alive!) They said the campaign was virtual (ie.no office), but that they had canvassed over 75% of the riding. Indicated they had received negative feedback from voters for having original literature only in French. Objective is to finish ahead of the Bloc. So,received my first piece of campaign literature (bilingual), still have not heard from other campaigns. Noticed that several Dion signs had been defaced, unusual in this staunchly Liberal riding, but otherwise no sign of Liberal campaign.

Dion’s best 2 hours of campaign. He performed well above expectations: relaxed, clear, emotional. Will ensure Montreal area seats lost in last election return to Liberals. (A)

Duceppe is a master in this format, smooth and well prepared. Solidified his credentials as defender of Quebec likely limiting Conservative gains in regions. (A)

Harper underwhelmed. Calm and priministerial is one thing, but passionless and sleepwalking is something else! Sure he was under attack from the other 4 leaders, but he seemed unprepared. That majority may have just slipped away. (C)

Layton did good job of presenting himself as alternative to Dion and Harper, but did not show distinction between NDP and Bloc, often citing they agreed. Perhaps ups his vote count with left, at worst reinforced that NDP is legitimate player. (B)

May was sometimes incomprehensible, was largely ignored by others, but effectively returned all discussion to environmental issue. Blunt attacks on Harper, cheered on by others. (D)

As for format, not really a debate, more a Q&A session with Harper doing all the answering. To be expected, but how do you distinguish between the opposition parties who rarely took each other on. For those who didn’t watch original French, French language fluency coincided with scores above. Need more one on one, or 2 minutes vs 45 seconds to give answers, and allow leaders to ask each other questions.

Congrats to Layton and Harper for proposing more time to discuss the economy. Let’s build on this idea for future election campaigns: have 4 debates, one a week on a major issue. Fifteen minutes is not enough time to explain a policy on the environment, healthcare, etc. but 2 or 3 hours should be. Hold one debate in each of the different regions of the country with one French language debate in Quebec. Our democracy would be better for it.

The polls suggest the current electoral system favors the Conservatives, Liberals and Bloc at the expense of the NDP and Greens. Some argue this discourages people from voting, and propose proportional representation (PR) as the solution. Perhaps it is part of a solution. But a real issue which is never discussed is lack of representation by population (Rep by Pop), which causes some votes to be worth more than others.

If anyone should be discouraged it is residents of Ontario, Alberta and BC. These have 1 MP for every 120,000 in population. All the other provinces are over-represented, from the extreme case of PEI which negotiated a great deal at Confederation (4 MPs for a population of 140,000) to Quebec (1 MP per 103,000). So at this election, the 4 Maritime provinces will elect 32 MPs as BC elects 36, even though BC has double the population. This isn’t fair.

 Electoral reform, combining Rep by Pop with some form of PR (say 1 for every 2% of the vote, or 50) will solve part of the voter turnout issue by making sure every vote matters equally. The greater responsibility falls on politicians. Get voters engaged by proposing and debating ideas instead of launching personal/negative attacks or bickering. Voters are disenchanted with politicians. If the politicians change the way they behave, maybe voters will as well.

Accompagné par Gilles Duceppe à l’Université de Montréal, Pauline Marois a prononçé que le Bloc est utile parce qu’il poursuit le même but que le PQ : la souveraineté du Québec. Est-ce le point important dans la présente élection fédérale ? Je suis plus intéressé à savoir le plan l’économique du Bloc et ce qu’il propose de faire pour appuyer notre système de santé. Le NPD et les Conservateurs offrent des options très différentes. En termes pratiques, qu’est-ce que le Bloc nous offre ?

How did culture become the issue in the election? The feds spend $45 million every ninety minutes and that’s what the media is focused on? Why are Harper and Dion even talking about this? Come on!

With the US experiencing a debt hangover, when are we going to hear about the biggest risk to our prosperity: the federal debt of $460 Billion.

It is likely that interest rates will rise as credit markets tighten further and inflation increases. A 2% rise in rates will cause debt servicing to rise $9 Billion, or to $38 Billion, eliminating the surplus. Everyone is on the spending bandwagon, I want to hear what the plan is to repay the debt?

Did I hear correctly that Jack Layton is now ready to enter a coalition to prevent a Conservative government? I thought he was running for Prime Minister. I think this is a big strategic mistake. He was running an excellent campaign, gaining support and likely increasing the party’s seats in the House, potentially a breakthrough in Quebec. Now that is all out the window. Watch as NDP support settles back now that the party has dropped principle for politics. What were you thinking Jack?

Like many other voters I am disgusted by political ads which take comments out of context so as to mislead the public/viewer about opponents. But these are politicians, who we know rank just above (or is it below) lawyers in terms of public respect. They are trying to shape voters perceptions and get votes, not be truthful.

Journalism on the other hand is supposed to be about investigating the facts and presenting both sides of a story. It is all about context and getting as close to the truth as possible. In something as important as an election, we need the media to cut through the political spin, otherwise they are just as guilty of manipulation as the politicians.Unfortunately, our Canadian media seems to be failing us in this regard.

The most obvious case of this lack of media scrutiny was the coverage of the statement from Lawrence Cannon’s aide to an Indian band leader.Taken out of context, telling the Indians ”… if you are sobre and behave…” is insulting. In the context of prior incidents in which the police were involved because protesters showed up drunk and made threats, it is perfectly understandable.

And don’t tell me they don’t have the time to do this. Just watch the news on BBC or PBS, or read the Economist. Important stories get the time they need, and are not compressed into 30 second sound bites.

Our democracy depends on a properly functioning media acting responsibly and objectively to hold politicians accountable. If the media wants to become a US style circus where biased coverage is the norm, we will all lose in the end.

So the Liberals who “slayed the deficit monster” in the 1990’s are now making a whole bunch of spending promises, apparently greater than those of any other party. Yet they accuse the Conservatives of having moved Canada into a deficit. So if we are in deficit now, where is the money going to come from for all this new spending? Do the Liberals stand for balanced budgets or not? Didn’t Paul Martin lose the last election (in part) by making all sorts of promises that people knew he could never keep? No wonder voters are supporting the Greens and NDP who are consistent in their policy and spending announcements.

Contrairement au reste du pays, un choix stratégique n’est pas évident. Dans la région de Montréal, à part de Thomas Mulcair du NPD à Outremont, la bataille est entre le Bloc et les Libéraux. Si je crois que le Bloc n’est plus pertinent, mais je déteste les Libéraux même que je suis féderalist, je vote pour qui? Dans les régions, c’est le Bloc contre les Conservateurs. Mais si je crois que le Bloc est passé et j’ai craint d’une majorité Conservateur, je vote pour qui?

Mon avis: à court terme, il faut voter avec conviction ”pour” quelqu’un, il faut contribuer le temp et de l’argent pour leur aider à gagner des votes; à long terme, il faut demander et actionner un changement du système électoral pour un dans lequelle on ajoute un certain nombre de parlémentaires en proportion du vote national obtenu par leur parti à celles qui gagnent dans les circonscription.

I wrote this back on Sept.15.

“ La Presse (newspaper in Montreal) has questioned if deal between Dion and May not to run opposing candidates in each others’ ridings is only part of deal for strategic voting across the country. Does anyone have suggestion of that in their riding?”

 Now May has made it official by calling on Greens to vote Liberal. Regretably, this hurts the Green brand in the long term and now makes it irrelevant and illegitimate. Instead of voting tactically, Green voters should now think strategically and choose another party, be it Liberal or NDP, and stick with them for the long term. 

Tactically, May did more than anyone to build the Greens into a legitimate force. Strategically, she has put the first nail into the Green Party’s coffin.

I like Dion’s promise of a $10,000 tax credit to help people retrofit their homes. Credits are the right way to go because people are responsible for the decision and paying for it. I hate this idea of providing $800 million for immigration. Why should we pay for immigrants to learn English or French? Let them learn or pay just like earlier immigrants to Canada did.

Not clear on Layton’s plan to introduce new laws requiring full disclosure on bank fess, cellphones, etc.. Seems like these exist. Make one change: no more small print, all terms and conditions must be written same size as application. Then let companies explain why a cellphone contract is 27 pages long. As for $8.2 billion for green job creation, this is just another big government spending boondoggle waiting to happen.

Why is Harper so negative? He should stick to policy not personalities, and put the backroom boys on a leash, or better still fire them. We don’t need this negative American style politics here. His idea about paying veteran’s allowance to veterans from foreign countries is bizarre. Let’s take care of our own and let others deal with theirs.

If Duceppe wants to open the constitution, then let him agree to put everything on the table ie. equalization, parliamentary reform to achieve rep by pop, internal free trade. etc.. He can’t make promises because he will never excercise power.

Is May’s green shift shiftier than Dion’s? Does anyone really believe (I mean really) that the carbon tax will be revenue neutral? I think BC residents can answer that. Maybe if I had specifics to work with instead of generalities I would understand this. Won’t high energy prices alone change behavior? Oh, and how quickly are we expected to replace our gas guzzling cars and airplanes, coal fired power plants, oil heated homes, etc.? Next year, 5 years, 10 years? Won’t this simply trigger an enormous economic dislocation for Canadians who are least able to adapt, those lower on the economic scale?

Desperate at the Bloc’s drop in the polls and the potential of not meeting his low ball 50% of Quebec seats goal, Gilles now wants to excite (antagonize) his core by raising the Constitution. Except no one is listening and no one wants another debate on the topic. Watch the rhetoric soar as the bottom falls out from under the Bloc. Prediction: 4-5 more Liberals in and around Montreal, 12-15 more Conservatives in the regions, result Bloc ends up with 37 or less seats ie.less than 50%.

The Conservatives were first out with their signs, the Liberals soon followed. The Bloc got out of the blocks only on Friday, while the supposed NDP candidate is apparently on vacation in Lebanon. The St.Laurent News Sept.13 edition had the three known candidates’ pictures on the cover with a big question mark under the NDP (I guess no vacation shots were available.) It referred readers to pages 4-7 for stories on the candidates.Page 4: Headline “One less candidate in Dion’s way” with 1/6 page picture of Dion.Page 5: Same article as page 4 but in French. Editor’s column about “… commitment to show huge concern for equity and objectivity”.Page 6: Headline in French “Stephane Dion presents his Quebec team”, 1/6 page picture of Dion and team.Page 7: English version of 1) article on page 6 2) editor’s column on page 5, plus picture of Dion.Score: Dion 4, opponents 0.Special mention for objectivity to St.Laurent News.This is Dion’s riding to lose. Except for 1984 Conservative sweep (and even then riding boundaries were different) it has been a Liberal stronghold. He won last time with over 50% of the vote.So far no contact from any campaign (calls, mailings, etc.)