As most suspected, Liberal incumbent Peter Milliken was re-elected to a seventh term last night over rivals Brian Abrams (Conservative), Rick Downes (NDP), and Eric Walton (Green). The surprise of the evening, however, was how close the race was. While Milliken still won by a somewhat comfortable margin of over 3,500 votes and 6.5%, this is still far removed from the over 12,000 votes and nearly 20% margin he won by in 2006, which many thought was an off-year for him.

This can be credited to a few things:

1) The strong Abrams Campaign: Abrams’ campaign was strong right out of the gate and had been active since January getting his name out there and attending events. I had the chance to see him on two occasions during this election, and it’s clear he is also quite impressive in person. He had a strong presence by winning the sign war, a billboard and radio campaign, and occasional media coverage (though some was pretty harsh as well).

2) The demographics of Kingston: Although Kingston has leaned Liberal for quite some time, there are demographics that trend towards the Conservatives. Lots of protestant suburban voters, seniors, military voters, rural voters and high-net-worth retirees all trend towards the Conservatives, especially in this election. This should account for much of the switch from Liberal to CPC.

3) Milliken himself: Milliken has taken quite a beating in the media, and more importantly in the coffeeshops, with his musings about not serving a full term if not given the speaker’s position again. He has claimed in the media that it was “misinformation”, but in my humble opinion, Milliken was given every opportunity to say outright “I WILL serve a full term” and never said it outright. This appears to have been a factor.

So what does the future hold for this riding? I can’t imagine Milliken will be the Speaker again. He was given the Speaker’s position because the CPC numbers in the 120’s made them concerned about losing the one vote and still being able to pass legislation with the support of the NDP. With 143 seats, this won’t be a factor anymore, and if the Conservatives are intent on governing with a stronger mandate (and one day a majority), they’ll need a Conservative member as Speaker. This will put the heat on Milliken and test whether he really was after only the Speaker’s chair or not.

As for Abrams, his strong showing positions him very well for another run. Whether it will be a byelection when Milliken retires, or as part of another likely election in the next couple of years, he will most certainly be a candidate again and must be considered a likely frontrunner if Milliken isn’t on the Grit ticket.

After 20 years, Kingston politics may have just entered the ‘exciting’ category once again.

PS – full disclosure, I voted for the Greens’ Eric Walton.

The Kingston and the Islands election race got off to a slow start, with only the Tories having any presence whatsoever for the first week. This week, however, we’ve seen the Liberals and the NDP finally get their candidates nominated, soon followed by their signs on public property. I guess only the Green Party has decided to follow their “green challenge” of keeping signs off public property.

The private lawn sign war is much more interesting, though. Out in the west end suburban area, Abrams (CPC) signs are all over the place. It seems there’s one on every street. The Whig has printed that he has been out canvassing since January, so he certainly can’t be criticized for not working hard. A drive through the Rideau Heights area also shows more Abrams signs than one might expect

The real interesting story, however, is how well the Greens are doing vs. the Liberals downtown. Walton (Green) ran in 2006, so he may have a bit of an organization going, and he seems to be winning the sign war in Sydenham Ward and over much of downtown. The other surprise down this way is how few signs Milliken (Liberal) has up in Sydenham Ward and downtown, an area he usually dominates. Perhaps he is laying low because of the thrashing he has been taking in the local media, as seen here.

Milliken is the clear favourite, winning by 19% last time over the Tories, but one has to wonder with the way things are going nationally, the recent Eastern Ontario numbers from Nanos that put the Tories ahead of the Grits 40/29, and the good start out of the gate for Abrams if we may have more of a race here than ever before. Only time will tell, the real race is only just beginning…