2008 CANADA ELECTION

14 October 2008

SEAT PROJECTIONS & RIDING DISCUSSION -- SELECT PROVINCE/TERRITORY OR RIDING

Maxime Rainville (Conservative) Articles

Reopening old wounds

Le Devoir had a story today about the upcoming memoirs of former Prime Minister Paul Martin.  Apparently,  Mr. Martin devotes a few chapters to blasting his predecessor, Prime Minister Chrétien.

In terms of electoral timing, I don’t think this really matters.  The only people who are going to care are politcal junkies.  There was that interessing claim that the campaing finance laws limiting political contributions were set up by Chrétien to underminde Paul Martin chances.

I find it interessing for several reasons.  For one, it’s the closes thing to a politically embarrassing statement in that article.  Secondly, coming from Paul Martin, the idea that Chrétien was pushing this bill to undercut him, sounds incredibly self-centered.  Ever heard of a concept called “principles”. And finally,  Paul Martin did not exactly help his cause with his handling of the sponsorship scandal.

I think some folks at the Liberal HQ were operating under the idea that the canadian electorate would make a difference between the Martin Liberals and the Chrétien Liberals.  The sad truth is that, had Paul Martin not set up the Gomery inquiry, I think he could very well still be Prime Minister today.

Also, someone should tell all those “has been” leaders with an overdeveloped self-consciousness about their legacies, to take a page out of Lucien Bouchard’s playbook.  Say whatever you want about the guy, he’s been smart enough to stay out of the news after leaving office. The only time he did intervene was when he published the “Manifeste pour un Québec lucide” and even then he surronded himself with a cross party crowd and he addressed the issue in a non-partisan way.

That’s statesmanship.  Using your last significant contribution to the public debate to trash your former opponents is not.

I love you too …

As we move forward with the last week of the campaign, for all those of you who fear the political discourse will be degraded by bitter partisanship, I’ve put together this little video to help you through it.

Denis Tassé pulls a John McCain out of his hat

Last night, the Public Service Alliance of Canada (PSAC) was sponsoring a debate between the candidates in Gatineau.  The candidates had all accepted to attend with the exception of the Conservative candidate, Denis Tassé.  The Conservatives were claiming, credibly I think, that the PSAC is bias and that it would be an unfair forum.

But just as the debate was about the begin Denis Tassé came in and announced he would indeed be participating.  He still said the union’s leaders were bias and he accused them of actively campaigning against him by urging members to vote for anybody but the Conservatives.  He declared that he said “yes” to government workers but “no”to the Alliance (I’m sure that brings a tear to your eyes ;-) ).

I’m not really sure what to think about this.  On one end, I’m sure there’s no love lost between the PSAC leadership and the Conservative, but on the other end why would the guy change his mind about this sort of thing five minutes before the debate started?

Personally, I still think it’s not the job of a union to tell its members for whom to vote.

Canada 2008 on the Political Compass

Political Compass has rated our political parties for this election.

Political Compass is a Web site that evaluates politicians and political parties.  It then places them on a left-right and top-down scale.  The horizontal axis represents economic policies: collectivism is on the far left while neo-liberalism is on the far-right.  The vertical axis represents social policies: dictators are at the top and anarchist are at the bottom.

Of course, they have a little quiz you can fill up to find out where you are on both scale.  For those who are interested, I’m at 7.88 on the economic scale and -5.33 on the social scale (Yes, I’m a freak!).

This year, they have placed the Conservatives at (5½, 5½), the Liberals at (2, 3), the Greens at (1, ½), the NDP at (-2, -2) and the Bloc at (-1½, -1). Strangely, in 2005, they had everyone near the center. I’m not sure what policy positions the Conservatives could have taken to be put so far away from their 2005 position.  On the world leader chart, Stephen Harper is actually just to the left of Gordon Brown …

Vote for Paul Fréchette or Al-Quaeda will poison your food

Paul Fréchette, the Conservative candidate in Hull-Aylmer, made a fool of himself this week by saying that the Conservative government would take measures to protect Canada’s food supply against poisoning from Al-Quaeda and other terrorist groups.

Aside from saving you from Osama Bin Ladin wrath, his main proposal is to bring an additional 6000 government jobs in Hull, but he is not inclined to explain how this will be accomplished (for more on this topic, read We want Jobs! Or do we?).

He also apparently only answers questions relating to the record and priorities of the Conservative government.  In an interview with a journalist from Radio-Canada, when asked who he though his main opponent was, he replied “I think our time is up and your question is not related to the topics we had agreed upon” and cut short the discussion.

If elected (which is begining to look more and more doubtful), he’ll certainly fit right in with the rest of the Conservative caucus with this kind of approach to the media.

“Act Now! Run for the Libertarian Party of Canada”

One week into this election, the Libertarian war machine is gearing up! Duck your heads and run for cover folks.

I got this message on my Facebook account, curtsey of the Libertarian Party group :

Act Now! Run for the Libertarian Party of Canada

There are still a few days left to run as a candidate for the Libertarian Party of Canada! The recruitment committee is busy!

Don’t put it off! If you want to run, fax or email a scanned copy of your membership form to info@libertarian.ca – mailing your membership fee is fine. Contact info@libertarian.ca and let them know you would like to run as a candidate. Ask them if your own riding or a nearby electoral district is available.

Membership forms are here: http://libertarian.ca/english/libertarian-party-join.html – sign as a voting member

The nomination deadline for all candidates to see their local returning officer is September 22: you need a $1000 deposit, 100+ signatures, an official agent (and auditor), and a letter from party leader. These are all obstacles that need some time to resolve. Waiting until the 20th is pushing it. The LPC may be able to help you find an official agent but please see if you can find someone to assist you.

P.S. Recent news about the Libertarian Party of Canada
http://westernstandard.blogs.com/shotgun/2008/09/it-takes-courag.html

Meanwhile, on the Libertarian Party frontpage, Phil Bender is still running in the by-election for Guelph.

This is sooooo sad … :-(

I don’t know this guy

This morning, I was driving to a restaurant to go get some pizzas for a student assembly (One of the many glorious responsibility that comes with the presidency of the CS student association), and I noticed that the Conservatives, the Liberals and the Greens don’t display their leaders’ pictures on their campaign sign. The NDP and the Bloc do. In fact, the Bloc even has a second generic design showing only the picture of M. Duceppe.

I wonder if this is a councious decision? M. Dion and M.Harper aren’t exactly the most charismatic leaders out there, so putting them on your campaign signs is perhaps not so beneficial. On the other end, M. Duceppe and M. Layton might be perceive to be warmer folks, so putting their pictures beside yours is probably a bigger boost. Or I’m just my reading to much into this?

What about your ridding? Do the candidates show their leaders’ faces?

*** UPDATE ***

Apparently, the NDP also has leader only campaign signs … which are twice as big has the candidate’s sign. Wasn’t Jack Layton running somewhere around Toronto?

Debate dilemma

I just realize that those idiots at the TV network consortium have schedule the second debate on the same date as the US vice-presidential debate.  First, they try to ban Elizabeth May and now this?!!!  Shame on them!

All we Canadian political junkies will be driven mad because of this impossible choice they’ve put before us!!

But seriously, do you really think that 4 middle aged boring guys, even with the merciful addition of Mme May, can cut it against Joe Biden and Sarah Palin?  I think not!

Jack in Gatineau

Jack Layton at a Gatineau rallyJack Layton was in town today to support his candidate, Françoise Boivin.  Mme Boivin was the Liberal MP for Gatineau from 2004 to 2006 before being defeated by Richard Nadeau of the Bloc Québécois.  She later jump on the NDP band wagon when the Liberals refuse to allow her to run again in this election.  M. Layton’s speech focus on promoting woman equality in Canada.

The NDP seems to think she has a good shot at being elected and is apparently ready to commit some resources on her campaign.  For my take on Françoise Boivin and her chances in Gatineau look at “Go Françoise!!!”

We want Jobs! Or do we?

An old issue that seems to come up every election in Outaouais is the repartition of federal government jobs between Ottawa and Gatineau. In 1984, the government adopted a policy stating that 25% of federal jobs should be located in Gatineau and 75% should be in Ottawa. To the best of my knowledge, that target has never been met. The current ratio is 21-79.

Every election, at any level, politicians start talking about how they will fix the problem and how their opponents have been sitting on their hands for decades. No one seems to stop and actually ask why that policy is such a good thing in the first place.

I personally find this debate somewhat annoying: as a tax payer, I expect my government to try to deliver the best services and the lowest possible cost. When it comes to selecting a location for new offices, I would hope that the driving factor in the decision would be “value for money” … not an arbitrary quest for regional justice.

As a Libertarian, I’m especially annoyed when I see a Conservative calling for more federal jobs on the Quebec side (Paul Fréchette, CPC, Hull-Aylmer) :

 Parmi ses priorités, il y a l’attribution de 25 % des emplois fédéraux de la capitale en Outaouais. « Nous autres ce que les libéraux ont promis pendant 30 ans, puis qu’ils n’ont jamais fait, nous autres, on va le réaliser. C’est en voie de réalisation actuellement », dit-il.

It’s also funny when I see the Bloc running on that issue … because if they had their way, the ratio would probably be closer to 0-100. The Liberals don’t really have a lot of credibility on the issue either, considering that Pontiac, Hull-Aylmer and Gatineau had been Liberal for more than a decade before the 2004 election.

The strange thing is that most voters don’t seem to care that much about this. I know a lot of Ottawa residents who work in Gatineau and Gatineau residents who work in Ottawa. The Ottawa-Gatineau population is fairly mobile. I don’t think the average voter cares that much on which side of the Ottawa river he earns a living … as long as the pay check ends up at the right address.

“Go Françoise!!!”

Here’s a funny story from Gatineau. Last Sunday, Françoise Boivin, the NDP candidate, got a nice e-mail from Stéphane Dion thanking her for her support and encouraging her to do everything she can do defeat the Tories. Apparently, Mme Boivin was still on the Liberals contributor list.

Her political path is an interesting and sinuous one. In 2004, she was elected in Gatineau as a Liberal. Near the end of the 2006 campaign, she urged federalist voters angry at the Liberals to vote for the Conservatives instead of the Bloc. That didn’t really help her and she was defeated by the Bloc Québécois candidate, Richard Nadeau. She did try to get the Liberal nomination for this election, but apparently Stéphane Dion’s Quebec lieutenant, senator Céline Hervieux-Payette, would have none of it.

So a few mounts ago, she decided to jump ship and join the NDP.

This could be a fun race to watch because there is a lot of wild cards in the deck. The Bloc last time won because of unhappy federalist voters; they could be returning into the Liberal fold this time.

Also, people didn’t vote against Françoise Boivin as much as they voted against the Liberal Party. And that nomination business was pretty ugly, so she might get some sympathy vote on that.

And let’s not count the Conservatives out either. Lawrence Cannon, my local Conservative MP, has been in the news a lot for the past 2 years and he is generally well regarded in Gatineau. This could help boost the scores of other Conservative candidates in the region.

The Sign War

I have not seen a lot of campaign signs so far in my district. So I decided to go for a walk and play the “spot the campaign sign” game. I did a little Google Map mash up of the results. No exactly the most scientific experiment, I’ll grant you that, but it does give an overall idea of the ground strength of each party.

I must start by voicing my deception with the Liberals and the NDP who have yet to place any campaign signs one week into the election. The NDP absence is understandable, considering that they never had much support in the area. But the Liberal no-show is little bit disconcerting. They use to be pretty strong in Pontiac.

On the other end, the incumbent Conservative has been pretty busy with 17 campaign signs. Also, his signs were up on Monday morning.

The Bloc’s operation is also up and running, but definitively not on par with the CPC, with only 8 signs. Although, I must give them extra points for their nicely located campaign offices, right in the middle of down town Buckingham.

The big surprise came from the Greens. They’ve placed about the same amount of signs as the Bloc and they have placed signs on secondary roads as well.

Also, those Green Party signs are made of biodegradable materials; on October 15, they will fall to the ground where they will begin to decompose into a rich and eco-friendly fertilizer … the perfect supplement for your backyard organic garden. It’s true!

Discovering Pontiac

My riding is not often in the news, so I might as well start my blogging career here at DemocraticSpace with a short description. Pontiac is a somewhat heterogeneous electoral district, with a mix of urban and rural communities.

The area where I live, Buckingham, use to be a small town before it was integrated with Gatineau in 2002. Buckingham and the nearby neighbourhood of Masson-Anger, could be considered the eastern suburb of Gatineau and have a combined population of about 30000 citizens. Many people, myself included, work for the federal government in Hull or in Ottawa. Most residents speak French, although the proportion of English speaking residents is rather high by Quebec’s standards. Like the rest of the electoral district, Buckingham and Masson-Anger are not home to a lot of immigrants.

The rest of the riding is mostly comprised of smaller rural communities. Agriculture, lumbering and tourism are the main industries. The district gets its name from the region to the west of Gatineau. This area is somewhat unique, being one of the rare predominantly English speaking rural regions in Quebec. Last election, Lawrence Cannon, the conservative candidate, made news in the rest of Quebec, because he used English sign in that area; the only one in Quebec to do so to the best of my knowledge.

During the Chretien years, Pontiac was a solidly liberal district. However, things changed in 2006. We had a fairly competitive race last time. Stephen Harper visited us 2 or 3 times and even guaranteed a cabinet position to Lawrence Cannon before a single ballot had been cast (my brother brought me a nice “Harper No 1!” t-shirt). Gilles Duceppe did drop by once. He was probably hopping the division of the federalist vote would give his candidate a shot, but in the end, Lawrence Cannon, who had been running for months, had some good name recognition and some strong support from his leader, won fairly easily.

2006 Pontiac election results
Party Candidate Votes %
  Conservative Lawrence Cannon 16,067 33.63%
  Bloc Québécois Christine Emond Lapointe 13,790 28.87%
  Liberal David Smith 11,539 24.15%
  New Democrat Celine Brault 4,759 9.96%
  Green Moe Garahan 1,512 3.16%
  Marxist-Leninist Benoit Legros 107 0.22%

Sadly, this time, it doesn’t look like any of the leaders will grace us with their presence :-( . Even Mr Cannon seems to be more preoccupied with getting other Quebec conservatives elected than with his own re-election

I guess I’ll have to wait for that “Green Shift” shirt. Maybe I can get one for a discount at the post-election liberal sale…


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