I went to North Vancouver’s all candidates meeting on Wednesday night and was left with a few impressions (side note: there’s a prediction on the winner of this – and several other – ridings at the end).

 1. Compared to the 2006 debate at the same venue, the crowd was incredibly respectful. Despite being marginally pro-Saxton (though from my vantage point I may not have been able to gauge audience reaction entirely accurately), there was only one moment of heckling, which was over before the debate was 5 minutes old.

2. Don Bell knows what plays and what doesn’t in the riding. Bell is an old pro, probably running his last campaign, who is putting up a heck of a fight in a right leaning riding. He can come off as awkward from time to time double checking his policy notes and stumbling over his words. However, the answers he does provide (including the best joke of the night) show an inherent knowledge of North Vancouver’s electorate. Don Bell knows North Vancouver and North Vancouver knows Don Bell.

3. All the subtleties that Don Bell knows about North Vancouver, Andrew Saxton doesn’t. He’s a new comer, it shows and North Vancouver doesn’t like newcomers – just ask Warren Kinsella. He was awkward, caught in contradictions once or twice and really fell off the wagon towards the end of the night as his jokes fell flat and his short, pointed answers, turned into meandering forays into a party platform he wasn’t entirely familiar with and a defensive answer about missing debates and failing to fill out questionnaires. Saxton has the potential to do well. He may win this election, but in a few more years he’ll be a much better candidate with a much better understanding of North Vancouver’s fussy electorate. Let’s hope that the local Conservatives don’t eat their own and give Mr. Saxton a second chance should he require one.

4. Jim Stephenson was not nearly as good as he was in 2006, but was still a pleasure to watch. A great understanding of his party’s platform and a very engaging style proved him to be the most likable candidate on stage. Perhaps resigned to a third place finish, the most interesting moments of the night were the little bones he kept throwing the Liberals.

5. I’m looking very much forward to the NDP candidates next film – he fought the good fight. He had nothing to lose and it showed, still good for him to show up. In 2006 the NDP candidate missed this debate because she was recovering from exhaustion in hospital. The Libertarian candidate, well, she sure didn’t hold back (and good on the audience for respecting her for that).

 6. This debate reminded me of why Don Bell won this riding in 2004 and 2006, and why he’s going to be the victor on October 14th, that’s right I’m calling it. Don Bell, North Vancouver – Liberal HOLD, but not by much.

7. While I’m here, I’ll also make a few more calls: West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast -STSC, oh the anticipation….John Weston, Conservative PICKUP by a country mile, but not a majority. Vancouver Centre…Hedy Fry Liberal HOLD, with a reasonable plurality – 2-4th may be seperated by no more than a point.

 If anything comes up in the next few days I’ll be back…

 North Vancouver

Capilano College Debate
When: 12:00pm – 1:00pm, Tuesday, October 7th
Where: Cedar Theatre – Cedar Bulding (across from the library), Capilano University, 2055 Purcell Way

North Vancouver Chamber of Commerce Debate
When: 6:30pm – 9:00pm, Wednesday, October 8th
Where: Highlands United Church, 3255 Edgemont Boulevard

Parkgate Debate

When: 7:30pm – 9:00pm, Thursday, October 9th
Where: Mount Seymour United Church, 1200 Parkgate Ave.

West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country:

Powell River All Candidates’ Meeting
When: 7:00 to 9:00pm, Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Where: Evergreen Theatre, 5001 Joyce Ave Powell River

West Vancouver All Candidates’ Meeting
When:7:00pm, Thursday, October 9, 2008
Where: Kay Meek Centre 1700 Mathers Avenue, West Vancouver

This afternoon I received an email from the local Conservative campaign. It brought up several interesting points which I’d like to address here.

 

On Campaign Literature:

The Weston Campaign email mocked the on-the-ground organization of the Liberal, Green and NDP candidates. Of specific note, there was the suggestion that no literature has been mailed out by any of the major parties. It’s an interesting point, and I was planning on writing something about it anyway. While I don’t know what date, specifically, the note was written, my experience is significantly different than the one expressed by the Weston Campaign email.

 

While I haven not, to date, received any NDP literature, I don’t recall ever receiving any NDP literature in this riding – very much a non-issue (and I don’t know that if I were the Conservatives I’d necessarily be gloating about this– the more strong campaigns around to split the vote, the better).

 

The Liberals have managed to provide literature in a mail out in my neighbourhood. While aesthetically reasonable on the outside, it’s poorly designed, bland and amateurish inside and on the back – I find this a bit shocking as it looks to be a simple template, how do you screw up a template?. In short, it looks as though it was thrown together at the last second (which undoubtedly it was given the late nomination of the candidate). Because the Liberals got in the game late, they had to choose a template (again assuming) for the flyers loaded with information on the platform, history and the candidate which, really, makes the brochure daunting for anyone looking for quick hits about the candidate or party. However, at least they got something out before advanced polling unlike some parties (see above, below). Quick note: it says a lot that I’m complaining about a party giving me too much info, doesn’t it.

 

Blair Wilson’s campaign/office has provided my area of the riding with several mail outs – one a slick looking effort, which was very accessible. Clear, plain language combined with a simple premise – though a little light on party platform…and really, if you were going to highlight anything, would it be your proposed raising of the GST? Nonetheless, easily the best literature I’ve received during the campaign. We also received a riding update after the writ dropped (though published before Blair joined the Greens) which was timed very well.

 

On to the Conservative Campaign, from whom I have yet to receive any literature from whatsoever. Well, that’s not exactly true. I have received information from their North Vancouver candidate (quite the publication I might add) and 20 percenters 2-3 times a week from Lee Richardson’s office. All that comes to mind is that before casting stones at the ineptitude of your opponents, perhaps one ought to consider making sure that they are aware of the boundaries of one’s own riding…I suppose it’s still possible that I’ll receive some information (perhaps waiting for the platform to be released) before voting day. However, none of this is particularly useful for those of us that have already voted. Bravo.

 

On Vandalism:

Beyond the normal mischief associated with vandalizing campaign signs, the Conservatives have charged that there has “been politically targeted” vandalism against them in West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – STSC. It’s quite obvious that the same is true of the Liberals in both that riding and North Vancouver as well – I’m sure that the Greens and NDP have also had some similar experience. I particularly find such action distasteful when involving signs on private property and hope that those who enjoy defacing signs at least respect private property and the right of citizens to express their choice for MP.

 

I bring this up mostly because of the news coming out of Toronto regarding vandalism to the homes of Liberal supporters. Let’s hope that the silliness here doesn’t progress to anything beyond throwing a sign in a bush (and that the box cutters that have been cutting up Liberal and Conservative signs are put away for the remainder of the campaign).

 

One final note. Things seem to be tightening up, ever so slightly on the ground in both North Shore ridings– it almost (ALMOST) feels like there’s a fight a-brewin’ in West Van-Sunshine Coast-STSC and perhaps Don Bell’s campaign has found some strength and traction. We’ll see, I suspect that a Liberal charge is likely too little too late, assuming they can even maintain the trickle of momentum they have managed the last few days.

It was a different seat for Stephen Harper this time around, being the incumbent PM and having to defend his policies instead of attacking others. How good a job did he do?

The beginning topic, the Economy, found Harper in general denial that Canada’s economy is anything but strong. As the subject of taxes on gasoline came up, Dion seemed to be intent on telling us how the demand from other countries would keep prices high, while Layton spoke about the need to help industries that are dependant on petroleum products to survive. Harper told us that he had done well by cutting the consumer taxes (GST), and Elizabeth May said this has done “nothing” for the consumer. My comment: “Yes, right, saving 2% on every litre of gas really deals with the incredible increase in the price per litre!”

There was a question about the listeriosis issue and food inspection. The high point in this part of the debate was when Gilles Duceppe asked Harper why the standards for exported foods were different (less frequent) for foods destined for distribution in Canada…

On the Environment issue, a questioner asked about having an independent agency created to deal with it. The overwhelming response from the others was about “leadership”, afterwhich May, Dion, Duceppe and Layton all complained about how Canada’s “leadership” on the issue is suspect among almost all other world leaders.

On Ethics in Politics and the House: This was the most fun part of the debate, that each one at the table look to the left and say something positive about the other potential leader sitting beside them and their experience with trying to work together. Poor Elizabeth May had Harper and had a difficult time trying to find something positive to say. The moderater had to cut her off, not because she was trying to be mean, but because she just came up empty. It was also entertaining to witness Steven Harper telling Jack that they had indeed found “some common ground”.

On Crime, the question was from a teacher from Dawson College, about gun control. While Harper, after fending off Layton on the issue, quickly changed the focus of the question towards his new crime bill, it set off another heated debate about the Conservative approach. Dion wanted to know HOW provinces would find the money to put more youth offenders in prisons, when there is already an issue over the number of prisons in each province lacking enough space and funding. May finished up by saying that it is funny that Harper wants to be tough on youth breaking laws, but he (Harper) only obeys the ones he agrees with. (She mentioned Kyoto and his own Fixed Election Law as examples).

On Healthcare: The debate became quickly about the fact that many Canadians do not have a family doctor. I guess this is the way to reduce hospital and emergency rooms problems. So all parties then focussed on the training and incentive issues for Canada to get more doctors. Elizabeth May brought up the issue of banning all chemicals which harm our health. Harper said he is on top of all of these issues. No one mentioned the issue for many immigrants to this country. How to make sure that qualified immigrants can efficiently cut through the present red tape to practice their professions when they arrive in Canada. This was a letdown for me….

Afghanistan: I do not think any leader said anything that has not been already heard a thousand times on this issue already.

Who won? Well I think it is sad that if you are a francophone in Québec, that if three out of five leaders are speaking in their second language, that some voters will pick the top two because of language. This language issue is what keeps dividing Canada, but it is also what makes us different than the United States, where debates happen in one language only. I love our bilingual and bicultural Canada! I love also, being a citizen of the World!

and the Liberals become an endangered species? First, let me apologize for not posting recently, I have been out of town for the last few days. But, good on you readers for keeping the discussion going in the comments section. I’m just going to post a few random thoughts (nothing substantive, but hey that’s nothing new from me) as campaigns and issues are now coming into focus.

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky:

Everybody but John Weston seems to be fading quietly into the night. By no means is he setting the world ablaze with his campaign, but he seems to be quietly running a smooth campaign with a solid ground presence in both West Van and North Van, bad news for the Libs. The Liberals have been virtually invisible, particularly in West and North Van where they have to win big to be competitive in the riding. That’s not to say that Ian Sutherland isn’t a competent candidate, he is. Nor is it to say that he can’t make in roads in Squamish, he can. It’s just that he needs to maintain the party’s traditional areas of strength and that doesn’t seem to be too likely. The NDP have recovered from the Dana Larsen experiment with a solid (on paper) local Sunshine Coast candidate that may be able to stop any vote bleed that may have been perceived prior to the election. With the NDP seemingly on an upswing in the province maybe they’ll even be able to pick up a few more votes than last time. The Greens, well after an interesting first few days, they have managed to fall into their regular role. I’m convinced Wilson will pull a good number for the party (up to 20% if the Greens can regain some momentum in the debates). On the whole, minus a massive shift, you can count this a Tory pickup.

North Vancouver:

I’m of the mind that you just can’t count out Liberal incumbent Don Bell. It’s been said before and is worth repeating, people vote as much for Don Bell as they vote for the Liberal brand. Consequently, I would expect a competitive Liberal result. It’ll be interesting to see what impact, if any, the arts funding debate has in this riding, as the local movie industry has played a major role in Bell’s two victories. Nonetheless, I would expect that this too ought to be considered a Conservative pickup on voting day – just don’t be too surprised if it’s called late. On a side note, the local NDP have been putting up “Jack Layton and the NDP team” signs, in place of those for the local candidate (admittedly the candidate does have a few of his own). Given that the candidate, Michael Charrois, is relatively unknown outside of the Arts community, this may be beneficial in growing party support – or it may marginalize the candidate. Either way, Charrois will ensure that Arts funding continues to be discussed (I’m not generalizing here at all, really…).

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A lot worse today then they were yesterday and yesterday it wasn’t very good…As has been reported on tonight’s The National, the NDP Candidate, Dana Larsen, was sacked today. If you’re interested in the details, I recommend catching a repeat of the show on Newsworld (or CBC if it’s still early where you live). In short, it involved copious amounts of drugs and a video camera. Frankly, Jack Layton didn’t have much of a choice – smoking a little pot is one thing, this was another entirely. On the one hand, I think that this is a loss for the politics of pot (not something near and dear to my heart, but something worth a good debate). On the other hand, it gives the NDP an opportunity to reassess their goals, strengths and weaknesses in the riding. Should they consider a candidate from North or West Vancouver that may grow support at the south end of the riding, while risking some support in their more traditional strength on the Sunshine Coast? Alternatively, they can choose a candidate with connections to unionists in Squamish in the hope of regaining a more traditional voting bloc. Or, they can stick with the status quo and choose a Sunshine Coast resident in the hopes of consolidating their support in the only part of the riding where they have shown consistent strength in the last two elections.

My feeling is that if the NDP want to stay relevent in the riding, a task which may be difficult anyway given three legitimate (if uninspiring) candidates now with almost a two week head start, they should choose the latter option. This election does not seem to be fertile ground for NDP gains in this riding (they never do, really – the big NDP gains in West Van – Sunshine Coast – STSC during the 2004 election are attributable to new boundaries). The NDP need a strong local (to the Sunshine Coast) candidate to maintain a foothold until next time. Even a strong candidate at this point would be hard pressed to maintain the 20% that the NDP managed in both 2004 and 2006. So, where do these freed votes go?

So, an Angus Reid poll on Saturday had the Greens at 26% in BC, which, I would suspect, makes Blair Wilson competitive in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast – I’m not saying it’s an outlier, but… I would never make any predictions based on one poll (a Harris-Decima pole puts them at 8% today), but if the number holds up I may have to change my tune a bit. Nothing is ever impossible in contrarian British Columbia. Needless to say, I’ll get back to it in the coming days. I was going to write about the North Shore candidates. I still will, but it requires research and therefore time, which I don’t have, so in the meantime I’m going to talk about election signs on the North Shore.

Election signs are funny things, in so far as most everyone considers them, at best, an eyesore. Yet, come an election, everyone goes out driving to see who has more up, some people I know base their votes on the number of signs, colour of signs and aesthetic appeal of signs. Signs can tell us something about an election. Throughout a campaign one can tell the organization level of the candidates on their ability to get signs up and maintain them. Signs can even indicate support in a riding, if you’re careful to only acknowledge those signs on private property. Publicly displayed signs offer little more insight than a spitting contest. That said, after a week of the campaign what can we say about signs on the North Shore.

NDP – There are none (that’s not exactly true, I saw one Jack Layton bag sign hiding under a Conservative 4×4 – though location counts, across from the Wheat Pool, well done). Even long-time NDP holdouts in my neighbourhood are lacking their signs. Realistically, this isn’t a big surprise. The NDP has strength in West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast, but not much at the south end (ie West Vancouver). They probably believe that it serves them better to concentrate their money around Squamish and the Northern reaches of the riding where NDP votes are concentrated and potentially under pressure. In North Vancouver, the NDP is little more than a rump focused around lower Lonsdale. Don’t get me wrong, provincially this is a solid block that makes the BC Liberals work for the riding. Federally, they’re the equivalent of a lone voice in the wilderness (yay hate mail).

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Why is West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast an important riding in this election? Well, because it’s one of those “swing” ridings, that every news agency in Canada is keeping tabs on in the majority yes or no sweepstakes. However, what marks West Vancouver apart is that its incumbent MP is running for the Green Party. In the coming days what you will find here is a profile of each of the major local campaigns and the impact of the national campaigns. In the meantime, a brief thought on Blair Wilson joining the Greens (only two weeks after the fact, but still moderately imporant)…

For those of you unfamiliar with Blair Wilson and wondering if he offers the Greens a shot of winning the riding, I’m sorry to disappoint you. Realistically, he may offer a top result for the Greens nationally, but there’s a reason the Liberals didn’t want him back after questions about this election financing and personal finances came to light. Despite being cleared of serious allegations, the damage had been done. The story was played to death in the local media and the history of Blair Wilson is now common knowledge across the Lower Mainland and his short term political career at a very likely end. However, that is not to say that the Green Party and Blair Wilson are a bad marriage, quite the contrary in fact. Wilson has already paid a small dividend, given his part in getting the Green’s into the debate (though, Jack Layton is deserving of some thanks for that too).

The medium-long term benefit, though, may be much greater. In Eastern Canada, where this story has never been ‘water cooler talk’, he offers some legitimacy to the party as a sitting(albeit for a week) Green member of parliament. Combined with participation in the debates, this has the potential to offer the Greens more votes across the country which, in turn, means more federal funding. For a party the size of the Greens, that’s important. For Wilson, it offers a better funded campaign and a built-in base from which to start and grow. Expect a much stronger Green result than in 2006 – though Blair, quick piece of advice, don’t use water soluble markers for your ‘authorized by’ lines on your campaign signs, it’s Vancouver, it gets wet here.

What I’m trying to say is that despite only sitting for a week as a Green member, Blair Wilson may have provided his new party, at least in part, with the means for their long-awaited breakthrough next time around – because this time it seems dubious, not impossible, much stranger things have happened. Though even if all he does is help get the Greens into the debate, that’s a legacy that goes well beyond anything he was able to do in the Liberal cuacus. In the meantime, however, his candidacy means that West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country is John Weston’s and the Conservatives to lose, but more on that next time.

Before I go, I would like to express my best wishes for a speedy recovery to Liberal incumbent Don Bell of North Vancouver. On Monday September 8th he suffered a heart attack and though he was released from hospital Friday the 12th, the campaign trail is not the ideal place to get healthy again. Here’s to a speedy recovery.