Oh my. This stuff never gets old.

“[Jack] Harris’ district of Signal Hill/Quidi Vidi takes in east end [sic] of St. John’s where the granolas live. The granolas are known for their intelligence and artistic flair and for voting against the grain. So many of them started out with high hopes to change the world… They still vote New Democrat, out of habit if nothing else… For the New Democrats, the trek to victory will only begin when the party sees itself as a winner. And not the loser that it is.”

- Ryan Cleary, the Newfoundland Herald, March 2, 2003, p.3

Ryan and Jack are now both running in neighbouring St. John’s ridings for the NDP.

(thanks to the avid reader who sent this along) More background, here.

This is my first post on DemocraticSPACE.com, thanks for the opportunity to chime in. You can catch the rest of my misdirected ramblings here.

First off, kudos to the contributors who raced me here with their own insightful early impressions of the campaign in the Atlantic provinces. Since the Globe and Mail won’t bother, and the Hill Times seems way off the mark (Random-Burin-St. George’s??? come on!!!), I’ll start by listing the ten ridings that I think are worth watching in the region. I’ll let others predict winners and losers, but here’s a rundown of the ten I’m keeping an eye on this time around.

New Brunswick

Fredericton
A longtime Tory stronghold, Liberal Andy Scott posted an impressive string of electoral victories in five elections from 1993 through 2006. His successor, David Innes, will have his hands full holding this riding for the Liberals. Scott won the riding through his broad centrist appeal, and an uncanny ability to keep social progressives in the Liberal fold. The consolidation of conservative votes on the right, and the mixed blessing of the election of a provincial Liberal administration in the capital city loom large. One intangible element which may play to Innes’s favour is the disappearance of the NDP from the provincial scene. Even though their only MLA was from Saint John, the fact that the party has had no presence in the legislature, nor accompanying party resources, will probably hinder their organizational efforts in the city. If this race becomes tight, it may make the difference.

Madawaska Restigouche
You have to include this riding in any list of ones to watch simply by virtue of the fact that it’s been so close in the past. Incumbent Liberal MP Jean-Claude D’Amours can hold this riding if he can increase his support in his hometown of Edmundston and the surrounding area. In 2006, despite winning the riding, he lost most polls in the areas closest to home, securing victory instead by winning big in the Campbelton area. This is an interesting riding to watch because it is one of the few francophone areas of the province with a longstanding Tory tradition. A large chink of the current riding falls within the old boundaries of Mulroney-era cabinet heavyweight Bernard Valcourt. Having come so close in the last election, the Conservatives will be focusing much of their efforts on this riding.

PEI

Cardigan
20-year veteran Liberal MP Lawrence MacAulay has had his ups and downs but always seems to pull out a victory in the end. The Cardigan riding was heavily targeted by the Tories in the last two elections, and in response, MacAulay actually increased his majority. MacAulay first won the riding in 1988 by defeating Pat Binns, who would later become PEI’s Premier. It had been widely speculated that Binns would be Stephen Harper’s candidate, but he was appointed Ambassador to Ireland. While it seems the Tories are now looking to the other side of the Island, where Egmont MP Joe McGuire has retired from politics, history shows Cardigan as consistently the closest race to watch. I’m not sure it will be this time, but if the Conservatives start seeing rosy polling numbers in Atlantic Canada down the homestretch, they’ll be eying this one in the campaign’s later stages. Not to be forgotten is that Peter MacKay has a lot riding on this. Once again, he’s been tasked with the political responsibility of finding a winning candidate and a winnable riding.

Nova Scotia

Halifax
In the past two years this riding has become a veritable game of musical chairs. It started when provincial Tory heavyweight and John Hamm cabinet minister Jane Purves dropped her nomination bid in protest against Stephen Harper’s backtracking on his Equalization commitment. A few months later the nominated Liberal candidate, Martin MacKinnon, dropped out. Then another Tory candidacy ended before it could get off the ground. Then Alexis McDonald, the NDP’s heir apparent, lost the nomination. This is ground zero of the NDP strength in Atlantic Canada, and it will take a weird set of circumstances to see it switch. But if Alexa McDonough only won by a whisker in 2000 and 2004, then 2008 just might be the year. The biggest story of all in this riding may be who isn’t running. If the Green Party finishes this campaign without gaining a seat, Elizabeth May’s party will rue the day they decided not to contest this one.

Central Nova
There are a lot of free agent voters in this riding. The NDP can’t possibly attain the numbers of the last campaign, the Liberals aren’t running a candidate, and the Green Party Leader is squaring off against Peter MacKay. She has her work cut out for her. Being on the national stage will help, but she’s got a lot of doors to knock on in the meantime.

South Shore – St. Margaret’s
If the Liberals are to make any gains in the Maritimes, this is probably where they’ll start. While Keddy has a few things going for him, breaking ranks with the Tories in the past on issues like gay marriage. Gerald Keddy now faces some backlash for Harper’s Equalization follies, and his weak response. Keddy’s held this seat comfortably in the past, and benefited from some increased NDP votes of late, but this time he faces a Liberal opponent in Bill Smith who has been on the campaign trail for months and carries significant support from his recent provincial bid as an NDP candidate. If Smith can win the Eastern part of the riding, while rebuilding some of the old Liberal areas in the southernmost county, he just might unseat Keddy.

West Nova
Always a nail biter… Even in 1997, when we Liberals were getting our collective a** handed to us on election night, this riding wasn’t called until well after midnight. And it’s been a roller coaster ever since. Robert Thibault is the first MP in a long, long time to win successive elections in this riding, but they’ve been close. Running against former provincial cabinet minister Greg Kerr, he’ll have his hands full again. But he had his hands full last time, and the time before…

Newfoundland & Labrador

Let’s save the most entertaining for last, shall we?

St. John’s East
The best thing about this riding, is that this election will finally be about something other than charitable vote-buying with Norm Doyle’s provincial pension. The favourite to replace him is Jack Harris, the former provincial NDP Leader who held the job for most of the past decade (albeit as a part-time job). He briefly held the seat federally after winning a by-election in 1987. He’s also a former law partner of Premier Danny Williams, whose future public endorsement is the worst-kept secret in the province. Williams’ ABC campaign may dominate the media in St. John’s, but it will have little impact on the eventual outcome. That being said, this federal riding was a safe PC seat for a long time, but has never really been a safe riding for the latest iteration of the Conservative Party. Craig Westcott will do a capable job of rebutting Premier Williams’ more juvenile interventions, but the only party with a shot at catching the NDP in this seat is probably the Liberals. But to do that they’d need a strong candidate…

Avalon
The riding is a bit of a geographic anomaly, created out of bits and pieces of the former rural portions of the St. John’s ridings, westward and encompassing the rest of the Avalon Peninsula. (Most of) the riding has been represented by a string of recent Liberal federal ministers; Mifflin, Tobin, and Efford. It’s a wonder it isn’t held by a minister now. One of the biggest questions on the minds of Harper loyalists in Ottawa is why he didn’t put Fabian Manning in cabinet during the last shuffle, given the extreme likelihood that he would be the only incumbent re-offering. The Tories will throw everything they have at this seat, but the lack of any NDP presence, and the never-ending barrage of ABC media follies might give newcomer Scott Andrews a real shot at regaining this one for the Liberals.

St. John’s South – Mt. Pearl
Traditionally, the safest Tory seat east of Alberta. Well maybe. Or maybe not. But its demographics are changing. A much more urban and diverse community than it was in the days that John Crosbie held the seat and won it with massive majorities. The biggest impact of the ABC campaign waged by Williams will be the resulting absence of campaign volunteers for the local Conservatives. Liberal Siobhan Coady has a team that’s well-rehearsed, having contested the riding twice already. Danny’s tirades may help in the short term, but what’s really playing in Coady’s favour is the absence of former NDP candidate Peg Norman, whose impressive third place finishes denied Coady the seat in 2004. If the Liberals make gains in the Newfoundland and Labrador, they’ll start right here. The riding is not without its own share of entertainment value, however…