I love the issues, I love the debates. But really I love Elections By the Numbersâ„¢.

So here’s my prediction:

• Tories: 117 seats
• Liberals: 98 seats
• NDP: 39 seats
• Bloc: 52 seats
• Independents: 2 seats
• Greens: 0 seats

I spent a good part of today and yesterday running errands in my downtown neighbourhood. On both occasions the only canvassing I saw was for the Greens. In both instances it was a pair of Green supporters. It’s all rather low key.

And low key is the way I would capture this entire campaign. Dunno what it’s like elsewhere in Soviet Canuckistan, but out here there’s alot of election fatigue. Going back to 2004

• 2004 Federal election
• 2004 Municipal election
• 2005 Provincial election
• 2006 Federal election
• 2008 Federal election (Oct)
• 2008 Provincial by-election (Oct)
• 2008 Municipal election (Nov)
• 2009 Provincial election (May)

So here in Vancouver’s West End that’ll be 8 elections in 5 years–and 3 in a period of about 6 weeks this year. Even for us political nerds it’s hard to get too enervated by it all.

At the ballot box those sentiments could pan out in a number of ways. Many fence sitters might decide to stay home instead. Some will snark vote: either vote for the Tories to give someone a majority and to get some peace, or do the Anything But Harper schtick and try to support the local candidate best positioned to keep the Cons out. And there’s always the FYou vote, which in BC was NDP for a long time, then Reform/Alliance, but now seems splintered between the Dippers and Greens. Though I expect a lot of Greens will split towards the Liberal or New Democrat who can win in their consituency.

Vancouver Centre–OK I’ll call it. Michael Byers squeaks out a <1, 000 vote plurality over Hedy.

Unless she romps it again….

I had a Dr.’s appointment in Kerrisdale this afternoon. My journey from work (1st and Boundary) to West Boulevard took me along Broadway, up Nanaimo, across 33rd–must of it the Vancouver Kingsway riding (VK).

VK is of course the riding of David Emerson. Paul Martin convinced Emerson to run for the Grits. Once Martin went down to Harper in 2006, Emerson went from “Stephen Harper is teh evil” to “sure dude, I’ll totally be your minister.” Many in the riding were choked about this–and still are.

So you’d think there’d be little support for the Tories in VK, right? Well if signs are…a sign of anything, there’s a lot of Blue (Cons.) in that there riding. There’s also a lot of Orange (NDP) and Red (Lib.). A lot of each. Here’s a bit on each candidate:

Salomon Rayek is a businessman who runs an import/export business.

Wendy Yuan is the CEO of Bradley Pacific.

Don Davies is a lawyer specializing in human and worker rights.

Doug Warkentin is a researcher engineer and environmental entrepreneur.

I found the rich swarths of colour profoundly moving. If only every riding was as engaged!

There’s been a slew of all-candidates’ meetings as of late; haven’t made it to one. Darned job!

Some allege Lorne Mayencourt (Cons.) is withdrawing via passive participation, skipping a number of events that his competitors are all attending. Many have been impressed by both Carr (Green) and Byers (NDP), in terms of their performances on the hustings. But by far, what I’m hearing most is:

What are the polling numbers in the riding, so I can decide how to vote?

Not for whom, but how. Because many see this election as the most contestable since 1993. No one I’ve met thinks Carr could win the first elected Green seat in Canada–but would vote for her if it didn’t increase Mayencourt’s chances via progressive vote splitting. Many more would love to vote for Byers, but fear the same thing. In fact, some who voted for Svend Robinson in 2006 because of his work on queer rights are much more afraid of Mayencourt squeaking in due to a split vote.

I had hoped to vote in the advance polls, but I too am waiting to see what the numbers on the ground say. I would vote for Byers if he has a chance of knocking incumbent Liberal Hedy Fry out of her seat–even though I prefer a carbon tax to the NDP’s gotta-protect-labour-jobs-no-matter-what alternative. I’d even vote for Carr if she was close to Fry and ahead of the others.

Polling numbers for Van Centre s’il vous plaît….

Since Harpee has ascended to the leadership of the Tories, one theme that continues to pop up from time to time has been about a (non-Tory) coalition government in Ottawa. While my Oh Gawd Not Him inclination finds any alternative appealing, my democratic integrity sensor says “not on.” Here’s why.

But you didn’t say….

Coalition minority governments are not only common in many parts of the world, they’re the norm. Many of these jurisdictions use some form of proportional representation to elect government members; a few others use our first-past-the-post system.  Countries like Ireland, New Zealand, and Slovenia have had few (any?) majority governments in the last decade: formal coalition governments are the best way to have stable minority governments.

There are  a couple of differences in such places when compared to Canada. First, no one expects to get a majority, so the question of with whom a party will coalesce is always on the table, explictly or tacitly. Second, voters usually have some mechanism to prioritize their support through a ranking system if they so wish. Finally, in a number of such countries, parties campaign as coalition partners from the outset.

Our system  produces majority governments more often than minority ones, which leads the 2 major parties (Grits and Tories) to campaign towards a majority, leaving the idea of coalition off (their) table. As well, many voters in “swing” (i.e. contestable, changeable) ridings vote strategically–usually to keep someone else out: while many assume this only applies across the left/right divide, there are some who vote NDP to keep out Liberals, or Liberal to keep out the NDP–and they would be unhappy to see their democratic intention suddenly trumped by party leadership.

But most importantly, the Greens, Liberals, and NDP (the most plausible possible coalition partners) have not campaigned as a coalition. In fact, with the except of a handful of ridings, they are competing head-to-head-to-head across the country. So each candidate’s votes are counted separatedly anyway: were a consolidated campaign run (one candidate for their coalition per riding), voters would know precisely what they are voting for.

If the Tories were to win the most seats by even 1 seat, they get to form the government. The other parties can bring them down if they don’t like it. Or they can agitate for electoral reform.

A call for STV

Last year Ontario voters rejected a new electoral system called mixed member propotional (MMP). Among the concerns friends of mine in ON had were:

• A number of MLAs who were not required to provide consituent-level services (while most others did)
• If I don’t like the new system, I’m stuck with it (can’t vote how I always did)
• Further entrenchment of party power (only party list candidates could win the additional seats, not independents

Single Transferable Vote (STV) addresses these concerns to my liking–at least as it’s proposed here in BC, where we’ll be voting on it again in the 2009 provincial election. BC STV allows those who:

• Like the current system can vote for their one preferred candidate only
• Want to rank all candidates in their electoral district can do so
• Only want to rank some candidates can do so
• Want to support independents can do so
• Want to vote for a minor party to do so without fear of “wasting” their vote and letting the baddies in instead

It is, in other words, change for those who want–flexible change–and the status quo for those who like things the way they are.

If STV gets through this time in BC I can assure I will support the Greens and independents in the next provincial election in 2013.

As part of Radio One’s coverage of the federal election, candidates from Surrey North were invited to a live discussion/debate this morning. Candidates from the Greens, Grits and NDP were in attendance; Tory candidate Dona Cadman was not.

For those unfamiliar, Cadman is the widow of Chuck Cadman. Chuck led a grassroots movement here in BC to update the Young Offender’s Act after their son was murdered by another youth. When the Reform Party was gathering steam out West, Chuck was one of a number of locally respected activists who were recruited for their hard work. And populist appeal.

Chuck served in Parliament from 1993 until his death from cancer in 2005. Over those 12 years he was a Reform, Alliance, and ultimately independent MP. When the right merged into the current Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) Cadman lost the CPC nomination–but easily won as an independent. Many outside BC first became aware of him when he voted with the Martin Liberals to prevent an election a few months before his death.

Dona Cadman endorsed her friend Penny Priddy for the NDP in the last election and Priddy won easily; Dona’s support no doubt helped, but Priddy has been a powerful and popular figure for years.

Dona has also alleged the Harper Tories tried to “buy” Chuck’s support in Parliament, offering inducements such as a life insurance policy. I’ve no idea about these allegations’ credibility. But I do know this: Dona is now the candidate for the very party she accused of being unethical. Bizarre. Priddy has declined to run for re-election as well, making Surrey North all the more interesting.

Dona’s either been Harped into a muzzle or has decided to avoid reporters. She did do an all-candidates meeting last night though. But her communication skills and lack of a populist bent are almost anathema to her husband. Or….she went for the nomination to sabotage Harper. Haven’t seen any polls yet, but the buzz is, the Tories are out of this one already.

Will the NDP hold the seat? Will it be a Liberal pick-up? Or will vote splitting between the 2 hand it to the Invisible Womanâ„¢? Oooooh…..exciting!

On a fecund Sunday the husband and I were clicking around when we chanced upon JoyTV, our regional Christish (rather than Christian) channel here in the Lower Mainland. The show was some interview chat thing hosted by a rather self-involved young man. Who spliced in onanistic “reflections” on politics and voting between the actual interview/chat portions of the show. This was apparently a recast of a live show on Vision TV from last week.

We don’t have–many, at least–theocratic evangelicals in Canada. I have a few friends who are Saved and while we don’t agree on all things we also are quite OK at finding commonalities between us, yes even when one of us is a sodomite. It’s one of the things I love about Soviet Canuckistan: we generally can get our heads around the difference between what “affects me” and what “upsets me.”

But I digress…

The show caught my attention because it featured a one-on-one interview with Green leader Elizabeth May and all-about-me dude. She was impressive: easygoing, forthright, sensible, gutsy. I loved her speaking out in favour of social justice and secular pluralism as a Christian herself. I think dude was a bit scared of her. Too right.

Among the subsequent panelists were reps from each of the 4 main parties (ici, ce n’est pas le Bloc…they weren’t interested). Two of the reps are Vancouver Centre candidates: NDP Michael Byers and Tory Lorne Mayencourt. Byers came across and bright but a bit like a pit bull; Mayencourt when from silly to incomprehensible in about 30 seconds. If Grits can abandoned the Liberals because of Dion, every self-respecting Conservative in this riding should leave Mayencourt high and dry himself.

Byers hammered the Liberal candidate for Dion’s passive support of the Tories this last session of Parliament. Green dude hammered Mayencourt’s rather tragic claims to the Tory’s having a credible environmental policy. No one came across as awesome, but Lorne was by far the loser.

The debates are gonna be interesting….

In the bag

In Vancouver East Libby Davies is winning the sign wars for the Dippers. But then again, it is perhaps the safest NDP seat in the country and she’s incredibly well respected by pretty much everyone. Including those who disagree with her. Another romp methinks.

Not Sarah Palin’s Alaska

And while the “culture wars” issue doesn’t seem to have much traction here in BC, its impact on the campaign Québec certainly has. And it’s unfortunate that relatively few here have seen the brilliant anti-Tory ad running là-bas. It’s in French, but I found a version with subtitles:

[Can’t embed the video here, but you can find it here with English subtitles: here.

The premise is simple: a québécois musician (Michel Rivard, formerly of Beau Dommage a 70s folks-rock act) seeks funding from an all anglophone ostensibly Merkunized government panel. Take note of the photos in the background: Heritage Minister Josée Verner and Harper with an American flag behind him.

The panel hears a series of malapropisms in the canonical «La complainte du phoque en Alaska» : phoque (seal, as in the animal) for fuck; p’tit (petit, or small) for tits; à faire (to do) for (an extramarital) affair. Their outrage and umbrage lead to y a big read REJECT stamp on the funding application.

Whatever you think of Québec nationalism (Rivard is an old skool sovereigntist) or government funding for culture, this is an entertaining, clever and very effective ad. Shame we don’t get things of this calibre in TROC.

Majority report

The Tories seem to have stalled in Québec. With no scope to grow significantly in Atlantic Canada or the Prairies and only a little scope in BC, Harper needs a lot of pickups in Québec and/or Ontario. They would need a net gain of about 20 seats across the country. They won 11 in la belle province in 2006, but there doesn’t seem to be the scope to pick up more than a handful. In Ontario they’d need to pick some up in or around Toronto. Again a tough sell

If you look at the unimpressive profile of Dion, if Harper can’t get a majority now he never will. Nor the Tories until he’s gone.

Well that’s a first: Hedy Fry out on the street campaigning. This morning on Nelson Street, adjacent to Nelson Park. If you’re supposed Honk 4 Hedy…I could hear the birds singing instead.

Well…she’s probably done this sort of thing before–several times before. But over the last 2 elections I’ve seen her more doing all-candidates meetings and a few high profile events to shore up her gay boy diva fan gurls (I’m a gay gurl guy…relax). Between 01 and 09 October there’s almost one all-candidates meeting a day, targetting queers, at-risk and street-involved youth, seniors, and families. As the campaign ratchets up a few notches each week I expect to see more of each candidate.

No sign (heh heh) of anyone else with regards to signs: Fry and Liberals are way ahead in total numbers. However that’s largely because a handful of houses in the West End (own West End house=buckets o’ cash=Liberal. Or Tory) are smothered in Liberal red. Still haven’t seen any signs for Mayencourt (Tories), Byers (Dippers) or Carr (Greeners). But sometimes those are rolled out en masse with about 3 weeks to go.

I find the buzz around Mayencourt perplexing. He’s not exactly wildly popular–having only won his MLA seat by 17 votes in the last provincial election–but the press are treating him like a star candidate. *scratches head*

As one of the flagship ridings across Canada, Van Centre often gets a lot of airplay during elections. Excepting one by-election half a century ago, the Tories and Grits have each ostensibly “owned” it at one time or another. In 1988 Conservative Kim Campbell won the seat by a fistful of votes over the NDP’s Johanna ten Hertog. By 1992 Campbell was Prime Minister; by 1993 she was out on her keester in the Chrétien sweep that brought Hedy Fry to the seat. Campbell wasn’t even in Parliament long enough to earn an MP’s pension and Fry’s still ensconced in the seat 15 years later.

Over the last few elections, however, the Tories have slipped down to third in this densely populated, mixed profile riding. While many associate Van Centre with thousands of condos (and there are lots), there’s also a lot of rental housing in the West End and part of the riding includes False Creek South and butts up against the Downtown East Side. Since 1997 Fry has handily held this seat for the Grits with 3000+ vote margins. In the 2006 election Svend Robinson tried to launch a comeback, finishing second behind Fry. I did some work for the NDP during that election (I’m no longer a member though) and it was shocking how many long-time NDP members refused to support Svend.

For this election there’s a lot of star power on the ballot here. The candidates for the 4 main parties here are:

Hedy Fry (Lib)
Lorne Mayencourt (Con)
Michael Byers (NDP)
Adriane Carr (Green)

Aside from Fry, the Tories have acclaimed Lorne Mayencourt, the polarizing Liberal MLA for the riding. Mayencourt squeaked back into his seat in the last provincial election by less than 100 votes: his absence from the city whilst working on a drug treatment pet project in Northern BC hasn’t endeared him to residents. Nor has his obsession with “aggressive pandhandling–an obsession that earned him a whack in the face from a street person after Mayencourt harassed the poor man for several blocks.

Michael Byers is the sort of “name” candidate the Dippers have been trying to land for years. Rumour has it Byers convinced Jack Layton to give the previously acclaimed candidate the heave-ho. Byers is a political scientist at UBC, well respected internationally, eloquent and passionate.

Adriane Carr was the leader of the BC Greens, but Elizabeth May convinced to become federal Deputy Leader. Carr finished second twice in provincial elections, by far the strongest result for the party in BC provincially. But that was in Powell River-Sunshine Coast–not citified Vancouver Centre.

Some think Byers is the kind of candidate to convinced non-Dion fans among the Grits to give the Dippers enough swing to win the seat. Others see a 3 way leftish vote split handing the seat to Mayencourt. Many others still think Fry’s got the edge.

Stay tuned!