Now that the dust has settled from the election, I’d like to give a big thanks to all of our writers here at DemocraticSPACE. It was an experiment to have people of all political stripes from across the country report and give their analysis of what was happening locally and on the issues. But I think it was success!

So the Conservatives win another minority, as expected. But it’s a little stronger than most, including DemocraticSPACE, projected. As we noted in our commentary, there were a wide range of possible outcomes due to the margin of error in the projections, with the best-case scenario for the Conservatives being 146 seats and the worst-case for the Liberals being 74 seats. The vote broke just about as well as it could have for the Conservatives, allowing them to narrowly pick up a lot of seats, and run away with it in others. So they came in at the top end of our projection range, and the Liberals came in at the bottom. The NDP and Bloc came in as expected, near the middle of the projected range.

Assessing our accuracy, of the 308 ridings, we made calls in 266, of which 258 (97%) were correct and eight (3%) were incorrect. We also had 42 ridings as “too close to call”, meaning there was an overlap in the projection range for more than one candidate, meaning either candidate was equally likely to win. All the model tells us is that it is going to be very close. To ensure we had a tally that added up to 308, however, in our average projection, we gave the riding to the candidate with the highest average projection, even though we did not make a call. Of these 42 ridings, the projection average correctly put the winning candidate ahead in 25 cases and put them behind in 17 cases, so a 60/40 split. So, indeed, these races were too close to call (although in some cases, the race was not nearly as close as we projected).

So, to sum, where we made a call, we were 97% correct. Including all too close to call ridings in the tally, we were correct in 283 ridings and incorrect in 25 (17 that were too close to call, and 8 genuine surprises), for an overall success rate of 92%. Interestingly, this is exactly the same result we had in 2006 (283 right, 92%), even though the average seat projection was closer to the results in 2006. So at least we’re consistent if nothing else…

Every election there are things that happen that are surprising and things that are not surprising. Here are some off the top of my head.

Surprising:
1. That Canadians backed the Conservatives more heavily than opinion surveys suggested, earning them a stronger-than-expected minority.
2. How poor some of the Quebec riding polls were. Jonquiere-Alma, Beauport, etc. were way off from the final results — so far off that one has to question their competence.
3. That Ontario went more heavily to the Conservatives than the polls suggested. While we saw the expected bounce back to the Libs in Quebec, the reverse happened in Ontario, which has never happened.
4. Some surprising losses for the Liberals — Kitchener-Waterloo, Kitchener Centre, maybe Sudbury? — but mostly the magnitude by which they lost in some cases (Barrie, Halton, etc come to mind).
5. How many Greens abandoned their first preference — it’s not a surprise they lost support, but that they literally lost 1/4 of their supporters is a bigger-than-expected drop.

Not Surprising:
1. Another Conservative minority.
2. The NDP breaks through in Northern Ontario. The only surprise here is why it didn’t happen in 2006.
3. The anti-Conservative wave in Newfoundland & Labrador due to Danny Williams’ ABC campaign.
4. The collapse of the Liberal vote in the West (just 7 out of 92 seats west of Ontario) and outside of the big cities (take a look at the results map at the scale of the country — how much red do you see? ‘nough said).
5. No breakthrough for the Conservatives in Quebec.

There are, of course, many others for both lists. What was most and least surprising to you?

Top 10 Things to Watch as Results Come in…
1. To what extent will strategic voting play a role? While better organized this time, it may only make a difference in a handful of close ridings.
2. Did Danny Williams’ ABC (Anyone But Conservative) campaign work? Combined with the retirement of 2 Conservative incumbents, it looks like Fabian Manning in Avalon is Harper’s only chance to hold a seat on the rock.
3. How is the Conservative vote holding in Atlantic Canada? Polls show a downward trend. Will it be severe enough to topple Peter Mackay? (not unless NDP supporters back Elizabeth May)
4. How are the Conservative doing in rural Québec? Harper needed to win here to get a majority, but the polls say there will no breakthrough. Can Harper even hold the seats he has in Québec? It’s not looking likely, but keep an eye on Québec City for a clue to Conservative fortunes in la belle province.
5. Will the NDP have its much-anticipated breakthrough in Northern Ontario? The odds look good for at least a few pickups here.
6. Can the Liberals hold the vast 905 region? Look for the Conservatives to make in-roads in the outlying areas, but the Liberals should remain strong in Mississauga and more urbanized regions.
7. Can the NDP rebound to previous levels in Saskatchewan and will the Liberal vote collapse? If so, the NDP could pick up a few seats here.
8. Can Linda Duncan break the Conservatives’ stranglehold in Alberta? If yes, then she can thanks the Liberals and Greens. This is a good test of how much strategic voting is playing a role.
9. Can the Liberals survive in B.C.? Facing pressures from both the Conservatives and NDP, the Liberals might end up with only a half-dozen seats west of Winnipeg.
10. Will Harper’s push for arctic sovereignty deliver Nunavut? If so, we could see a 3-way split of the North.

DemocraticSPACE projects a Conservative minority government. But whether it is a strong or weak minority remains to be seen. And the numbers matter, because it will determine who will hold the balance of power since the Conservatives will need support to pass legislation. Our average projection shows C 126, L 92, N 36 , B 52, O 2, but since there is a margin of error built into the polling data, there is actually a fairly wide range of possible outcomes, depending on how the vote breaks within our margins.

Some people might notice that our final projections differ slightly from the final polling numbers. That’s because we make adjustments to our final weighted polling average to account for ballot box shifts (due to differences in GOTV operations, strategic voting, or simply last-minute changes of heart). While there has been much talk of strategic voting this election, the overall impact of strategic voting on the popular vote is typically fairly small (although a few votes in specific ridings can have a disproportionate impact on the number of seats won). While we have taken into account strategic voting in some cases, in most cases, we expect it’s overall impact will be limited to a handful of key ridings.

These ballot box shifts are not as mysterious as we might first think, but in making these adjustments we are relying upon past evidence. While the past is certainly no indicator of the future, we have identified some consistent patterns that tend to repeat themselves. Chief among those patterns is that people in different regions tend to fall back to what they know. In Ontario and Quebec, that typically means a ballot box bump for the Liberals (on the order of 4 points). In Quebec, some of that bump can be attributed to the unpopularity of publicly declaring support for a federalist party. In B.C. and Alberta, the Conservatives tend to see a bump. On the Prairies and Atlantic Canada, the NDP and Liberals benefit, respectively.

Below is a list of the final weighted polling averages and the adjustments we made to them to arrive at our final projections.

Overall Changes from 2006
The Greens have increased their vote the most of any major party (both in absolute terms and in relative terms). Comparing our average projection with the 2006 results, the Conservatives have dropped 2 points (36.3 to 34.3%), the Liberals have dropped 1.7 points (30.3 to 28.6%) and the Bloc has dropped 3.3 points (42.1 to 38.8). Only the NDP and Greens have gained: the NDP by 1.1 points (17.5 to 18.6%) and the Greens by 3.7 points (4.5 to 8.2%). So the Greens have the biggest absolute gain, but a 3.7 point increase represents a whopping 82% increase over 2006, versus a 6% increase for the NDP, a 6% drop for both the Conservatives and Liberals and an 8% drop for the Bloc.

Conservatives
Of the 126-seat average projection for the Conservatives, 108 are solid. There are another 38 ridings where the Conservatives could win (where the projected vote overlaps with another candidate). That means if all the stars line up for the Conservatives (i.e. they win every single riding where they are competitive), the maximum they could win is 146 ridings. That’s highly unlikely, and even still, they remain 9 seats short of a majority. Of the 38 Conservative battlegrounds, the average projection (126) gives them 18, about half (this is by chance, but it does illustrate how our average projection is indeed the highest probability outcome). If they lose every single battleground, which is highly unlikely, they still end up with 108 seats. So in absolute terms, the maximum range for the Conservatives is 108 to 146, but this includes every possible outcome. The probability at either end of the margin is very very low (less than 5% chance). So you can see our average of 126 falls roughly mid-way between the extremes.

Liberals
Of the 92-seat average projection for the Liberals, 74 are solid. There are another 36 ridings where the Liberals could win. That means if all the stars line up for the Liberals (i.e. they win every single riding where they are competitive), the maximum they could win is 110 seats. That’s highly unlikely. Even still, as you can see that’s only 2 seats more than the Conservatives absolute worst-case scenario of 108 seats. The probability of the Liberals winning every single one of their close races and the Conservatives loses every single one of their close races is so small, we are confident in saying the we’re looking at a Conservative minority government. Of the 36 Liberal battlegrounds, the average projection (92) gives them 18, exactly half (and again, this is by chance). So in absolute terms, the maximum range for the Liberals is 74 to 110, but this includes every possible outcome (less than 5% chance). So you can see our average of 92 falls roughly mid-way between the extremes.

NDP
Of the 36-seat average projection for the NDP, 27 are solid. There are another 21 ridings where the NDP could win. So if all the stars line up for the NDP, the maximum they could win is 48 seats. That’s highly unlikely. Of the 27 NDP battlegrounds, the average projection (36) gives them 9, or about 43%. If they win half (the highest probability outcome), they might win another 1 or 2 seats (37-38 total). The maximum range for the NDP is therefore 27 to 48 seats, thus our average of 36 is about half-way between the extremes.

Bloc Quebecois
Of the 52-seat average projection for the Bloc, fully 48 are solid. This reflects the fact that many Bloc seats are in rural Quebec, where they are winning comfortably (except for the Chaudiere, Appalaches and Outaouais regions). There are another 6 ridings where the Bloc could win, making the absolute maximum for the Bloc 54 seats. Of the 6 Bloc battlegrounds, we have them winning 4. A perfect split of the 6 would yield 51 for the Bloc. So the maximum range for the Bloc is 48 to 54 seats, and our average of 52 is roughly in the middle of the extremes.

Greens
We project no seats for the Greens. If the NDP vote coalesces around Elizabeth May in Central Nova (and we project she is in second ahead of the NDP), she might pull off an upset. Other strong Green seats (> 15% of the vote) include Guelph, Vancouver Centre, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast, and Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, but we don’t expect they can yet win these ridings, since their support is more evenly-distributed (rather than concentrated into particular ridings) than other parties. That will change as the Greens begin investing heavily in ridings such as these.

Apologies for the inconvenience. We had a server outage yesterday, due to high traffic (I guess we’re just too popular!). So we moved the site to a new server and it took several hours for the DNS to migrate to point at the new server (which is why many of you were getting a blank screen for a while).

Update: It seems that the new server is screwing up all of the french accents. I have the tech folks looking into this, so stay tuned…

-Greg

Stay tuned for DemocraticSPACE’s “almost final” projections. We are hoping to release these by midnight tonight (Sunday), pacific time. We’re holding off calling these final until we see Monday’s polls.

Note: we will do one final update today (Monday) based on the last round of polls. Stay tuned…

There has been so much spin about who won or lost the debates, I’m a little dizzy. So, cutting through the spin, here’s my take on the two debates (for what it’s worth):

Harper: By remaining calm, Harper seemed to weather the storm, although he was a deer in headlights when May called him on having no platform. It is a pretty remarkable thing to ask for a majority mandate without telling anyone what you plan on doing with it (which is what a platform does). Combined with a low-key french performance, it’s clear Harper’s goal was to demonstrate he was a cool customer under pressure, which he did.

Dion: He may well have won the french debate by asserting himself forcefully (it was really a draw with Duceppe). I seriously doubt Dion won the english debate as some partisans have suggested, although I don’t think he hurt himself either. While his (and Duceppe’s) english is not as good as the others, it was perfectly understandable. Any suggestion to the contrary is just spin. But no doubt, he was not as strong as he was in the french debate. I suspect he did well enough to avoid a blowout.

Layton: he did his thing, using filthy sound-bites to attack Harper. I found him a little overly aggressive and maybe a bit too angry, but he struck a populist tone, which should serve him well. I think Layton probably needed to reach out more to dis-effected Liberals, but by relying upon tried-and-true anti-corporate rhetoric, he probably did not make a lot of headway. I suspect he did his supporters proud, but probably didn’t win over many new converts.

May: she made some good points, although probably spent too much time attacking Harper instead of more time outlining her party’s policies. Clearly, she was more comfortable in her first language (although her french has improved). I think her use of data (citing courses) lent credibility to her arguments and demonstrated she isn’t just a one-trick pony.

Duceppe: he was his usual conversational and direct self, making good points. Clearly, Duceppe was in his element in the french debate, emerging in a draw with Dion. Certainly, he demonstrated that he is a champion of Québec. His english performance, of course, was a little more pedestrian.

FYI, advance polls are open today (Fri Oct 3), from noon to 8pm local time. Advance voting is also available tomorrow (Sat Oct 4) and Monday (Oct 6), again from noon to 8pm. Visit Elections Canada to find out where to vote in your area.

As someone whose interests and research intersects politics and space, I must admit that I am a sucker for maps. Especially pretty ones! So I thought I would highlight this one that the Toronto Star recently published showing how every single polling station voted last time in the Greater Toronto Area. Click on it to download the full size version (but be warned: it is 5.3mb).

A few basic things to note:

1. The Liberal red in the map is virtually synonymous with the urbanized parts of the GTA (i.e. the Conservative blue areas on the urban fringe are primarily undeveloped areas, not yet consumed by the GTA’s onward expansion).

2. The most heavily urbanized areas at the core of Toronto vote NDP (except for the downtown Toronto Centre riding, which votes Liberal). The only other area where the NDP does well is in Oshawa, but since the Oshawa riding takes in a good chunk of the urban fringe, it typically goes Conservative.

3. The Conservatives do have a stronghold in the affluent areas in the Don Valley West riding (indeed this is the only seat they have a chance of winning). Otherwise, there are only isolated pockets of Conservative support in Etobicoke and North York.

De retour à la demande populaire! La première édition des Guides de Vote Stratégique de DemocraticSPACE est maintenant disponible. Voir les liens dans le coin supérieur droit de chaque page. Notez qu’il s’agit de guides non-partisans.

SOMMAIRE Voir la Page d’accueil du Guide de Vote Stratégique
Dans la vaste majorité des circonscriptions du Canada, le vote stratégique NE S’APPLIQUE PAS (en ce sens qu’il n’aura aucun impact sur les résultats). Il n’y a que 13 circonscriptions où il est approprié pour les sympathisants Conservateurs, 17 circonscriptions pour les sympathisants Libéraux, 30 circonscriptions pour les sympathisants Néo-Démocrates et 39 circonscriptions pour les sympathisants Verts.

Les guides fonctionnent de la façon suivante : le vote stratégique Conservateur fait en sorte que les Libéraux ne gagnent pas; le vote stratégique Libéral, Néo-Démocrate ainsi que celui des Verts fait en sorte que les Conservateurs ne gagnent pas. Évidemment, il y a plusieurs autres combinaisons possibles, mais celles-ci sont, de loin, les deux manières les plus communes de voter de façon stratégique.

Alors, à moins que votre circonscription n’apparaisse dans ce guide, NE VOTEZ PAS STRATÉGIQUEMENT.

GUIDES DE VOTE STRATÉGIQUE CIRCONSCRIPTION-PAR-CIRCONSCRIPTION
Sélectionnez le parti que vous supportez afin de vérifier si le vote stratégique s’applique à votre circonscription.

CONSERVATEUR	LIBÉRAL	NPD	VERT

Avis Important :
DemocraticSPACE n’endosse pas le vote stratégique (c’est-à-dire, le fait pour l’électeur de privilégier un second choix afin d’empêcher l’élection d’un autre parti). Nous croyons que le Canada devrait examiner la possibilité d’ajouter un élément de proportionnalité dans le système électoral afin de s’assurer d’une représentation parlementaire juste et adéquate. Cela dit, le vote stratégique se produit au Canada et DemocraticSPACE croit alors qu’il est préférable de faire des choix informés plutôt que désinformés. Par conséquent, ce guide a été conçu de manière à aider les électeurs qui pensent à voter stratégiquement.

Afin qu’une circonscription se qualifie pour le vote stratégique, nous avons le sentiment que 3 conditions doivent être remplies :
1. Il doit s’agir d’une course serrée entre deux partis (c’est-à-dire que l’écart entre les deux partis soit inférieur à 5%)
2. Les chances qu’un troisième/quatrième/cinquième parti d’être élu doivent être minimes (c’est-à-dire un support égal ou inférieur à 20%)
3. Le faible nombre de votes du troisième/quatrième/cinquième parti peut faire la différence (c’est-à-dire inférieur à un électeur sur trois)

Someone sent this to me, so I am passing it along.

There will be a 90-minute CBC Newsworld program tonight called “Canada Votes: The X Challenge” with Mark Kelley on Tuesday, Sept. 30.

The debate will be on the Canadian economy and will be televised at 7:30 and 10 p.m. on CBC Newsworld.

There will be an audience of approximately 100 Ontario voters who are leaning towards the 4 main parties running in Ontario in a percentage reflecting the CBC’s latest rolling poll.

There will 5-6 mini debates, each will commence with a question from a member of the audience. Each party will be given will be given one minute to respond, order for first debate drawn by lot. Each subsequent debate by order of vote total from audience in previous mini debate.

At the conclusion of the one-minute statements there will be a 2-3 minute freewheeling exchange between parties and audience.

Once the exchange is completed the audience will be asked, without regard for which party they are leaning towards, who they think did best in that section of the debate. Results will be revealed after the commercial break.

After 5-6 of the debate sections (all will be on the economy) each party will be given 30 seconds for a final appeal to the audience for their support for their party in the election.

The CBC will then take a final poll on voter intentions to see if any minds were changed. There will be a few minutes for final reactions and thoughts from all the parties and some of the audience members.

Back by popular demand! The first edition of the DemocraticSPACE Strategic Voting Guides are now available. See the links in the upper right of every page. These are non-partisan guides.

SUMMARY See Strategic Voting Guide Homepage
The vast majority of ridings in Canada are NOT appropriate for strategic voting whatsoever (in that it will not impact the outcome). There are only 13 ridings where it is appropriate for Conservative supporters, 17 ridings for Liberal supporters, 30 ridings for NDP supporters and 39 ridings for Green supporters.

The guides work like this: Conservative strategic voting is to ensure a Liberal does not win; Liberal, NDP, and Green strategic voting is to ensure a Conservative does not win. Obviously there are many different permutations, but these are, by far, the two most common forms of strategic voting.

So unless your riding is listed in the guide, DO NOT VOTE STRATEGICALLY.

RIDING-BY-RIDING STRATEGIC VOTING GUIDES
Select the party you support to check if your riding is appropriate for strategic voting.

CONSERVATIVE	LIBERAL	NDP	GREEN

Important Note:
DemocraticSPACE does not endorse strategic voting (i.e. where voters cast their ballot for their second choice party to prevent a less favourable party from winning). We believe that Canada should explore options of adding an element of proportionality into our electoral system to ensure fair and accurate representation in parliament. However, strategic voting happens in Canada. DemocraticSPACE believes that it is better to make informed choices than misinformed choices. Therefore, this guide is meant to help voters who are thinking of voting strategically.

In order for a riding to qualify for strategic voting, we feel 3 conditions must be met:
1. It must be a close 2-way race (i.e. the two other parties must be within 5%)
2. The chances of third/fourth/fifth party winning riding are remote (i.e. support < ~20%)
3. Small number of votes of third/fourth/fifth party can make a difference (i.e. < 1 in 3 voters).

Julian West has just dropped out as the NDP candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands. Since the nomination deadline has already passed, this means the NDP will not be running a candidate in the riding. This is significant as it reduces the split among the anti-Gary Lunn vote, leaving Liberal (but former Green) Briony Penn and Green candidate Andrew Lewis to try and knock off Lunn. You may remember that Andrew Lewis was the top vote-getting Green candidate in 2004, winning almost 17% of the vote.

DemocraticSPACE’s Update #5 (20 Sept) shows the Conservatives losing a bit of ground, and now 11 seats short of a majority. DemocraticSPACE currently projects the Conservatives with 144 seats on 37.3% support, the Liberals well behind at 89 seats and 25.6%, the NDP at 32 seats and 17.8%, the Greens at 0 seats and 10.3%, and the Bloc at 41 seats and 8.0% (32.2% in Quebec). See http://democraticSPACE.com/canada2008 for complete details, including regional breakdowns and riding-by-riding projections.

DemocraticSPACE’s Update #4 (17 Sept) shows the Conservatives 5 seats short of a majority. DemocraticSPACE currently projects the Conservatives with 150 seats on 38.9% support, the Liberals well behind at 86 seats and 25.5%, the NDP at 30 seats and 16.9%, the Greens at 0 seats and 9.7%, and the Bloc at 40 seats and 8.0% (32.7% in Quebec). See http://democraticSPACE.com/canada2008 for complete details, including regional breakdowns and riding-by-riding projections.

Note: the information on this page is now out-of-date, since the polls have shifted since this was posted. To see current battleground ridings, please visit our Strategic Voting Guide (en français)

Here are the current 68 battleground ridings that will determine the election. These are the ridings that DemocraticSPACE is currently listing as “too close to call”, which means the margin of victory is 5% or less. While other ridings may be competitive (say margin of victory between 5-10%), these are the 68 closest ridings in our projections.

ONTARIO (23)
ALGOMA-MANITOULIN-KAPUSKASING
BEACHES-EAST YORK
BRAMPTON WEST
DON VALLEY WEST
GUELPH
HALTON
HAMILTON EAST-STONEY CREEK
HAMILTON MOUNTAIN
KENORA
LONDON-FANSHAWE
MISSISSAUGA-ERINDALE
MISSISSAUGA SOUTH
MISSISSAUGA-STREETSVILLE
NEWMARKET-AURORA
NICKEL BELT
NIPISSING-TIMISKAMING
OAK RIDGES-MARKHAM
OAKVILLE
OTTAWA SOUTH
PARKDALE-HIGH PARK
THUNDER BAY-RAINY RIVER
THUNDER BAY-SUPERIOR NORTH
WELLAND

(more…)

This is a potentially significant endorsement — the mayor of Canada’s largest city (and the man who receives the most votes in any election in Canada!), former NDPer David Miller, says that the Green Party has the best platform for cities. Miller is particularly impressed with this Green commitment (from David Curry article in today’s Globe):

“Restoring the GST to 6 per cent from its currently 5 per cent, and transferring that revenue to cities for environmental infrastructure projects such as public transit. That last pledge received praise Tuesday from Toronto Mayor David Miller, a former New Democrat, who told a local radio station the Greens have the best policies for cities.”

What do you think, are the Greens the best choice for cities?

DemocraticSPACE’s Update #3 (15 Sept) shows the Conservatives 10 seats short of a majority, having lost a little ground in the last couple days. DemocraticSPACE currently projects the Conservatives with 145 seats on 36.9% support, the Liberals well behind at 89 seats and 26.6%, the NDP at 30 seats and 17.2%, the Greens at 0 seats and 10.1%, and the Bloc at 42 seats and 8.1% (32.9% in Quebec). See http://democraticSPACE.com/canada2008 for complete details, including regional breakdowns and riding-by-riding projections.

Just wanted to let everyone know that we’ve launched a new feature — the Discussion Forum. It’s organized along regional lines, just like the rest of the site, and you can also discuss the issues and parties. Check it out:
http://democraticSPACE.com/canada2008/talk