As a way of making me learn more about the ridings in my home province, I am going to commit to writing a profile of each one over the course of the election campaign. I know a fair bit about the ridings here in NS, but in order to write an in depth report, I will need to dig further and pay attention to the local media. That being said, there is one riding that I can safely profile right now and that is my home riding of South Shore-St. Margaret’s, probably the most interesting riding in the province (unless you’re the media).

South Shore-St. Margaret’s spans both rural and suburbans areas of Nova Scotia. Stretching from the furthest shores of very rural Shelburne County to the edges of Halifax and indeed into the Halifax Regional Municipality. Another interesting divide in this riding is the North-South divide. With most of the more populated areas and towns being located on the coast, this riding is often said to be divided by it’s major highway, the 103. North of the 103 has traditionally been Tory, while the Liberals and NDP (and Tories as well) find much of their support South of the 103.

The last three elections have seen the vote split go three ways with the incumbent, Gerald Keddy, winning with mid-30’s. The NDP managed to swing a second place finish (barely) in 2006, on the back of a Liberal candidate that while promising, just wasn’t ready for the big time. In 2008, the Tory and NDP are back with their 2006 candidates while the Liberals have put up a very strong force in Dr. Bill Smith. A chiropractor in both Bridgewater and Shelburne, Dr. Smith has roots in the two areas that could make much of the difference for the Liberal Party in this riding. With the Atlantic Accord fiasco, Gerald Keddy might very well be in for the fight of his life. Turning his back on his riding won him much backlash and bitterness is lingering. The question is, can one of the two other parties capitalize enough to overtake him. If the vote continues to split between Liberals and NDPers, it could be enough for Keddy to slip through, even with low 30’s. However, if one of the two other parties can win over enough support, they could easily squeek out a victory and sheer off one more Tory in Atlantic Canada.

In 2006, 11 incumbents ran for their seats in Nova Scotia and all 11 won (with one close race in West Nova). Even in 2004, only one seat had a retiring incumbent (Dartmouth-Cole Harbour) and another had a newly minted Liberal (Kings-Hants). This year is a bit more exciting in Canada’s Ocean Playground. While 10 incumbents are running (Alexa McDonough in Halifax being the only exception), we have Tory-turned-Independent Bill Casey squaring off against his own party (and apparently money he helped fundraise) in Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodobit Valley and Green Party Leader Elisabeth May taking on Peter Mackay in Central Nova. We also have two fairly competitive races within incumbent held ridings. West Nova being held by Liberal Robert Thibault was close last time and should be a nail biter again this time around. As well, South Shore-St. Margaret’s, with Tory incumbent Gerald Keddy should be interesting given the backlash from the Atlantic Accord fiasco. This ridings is typically a 3 way race, so if either the NDP or Liberal can rally the vote here, it could be a pick-up. The NDP candidate is the same as last time, but the Liberal is popular chiropractor Dr. Bill Smith who has been campaigning hard for almost a year and a half. Should be interesting. All in all here are my realistic best/worst case scenarios for each party:

Liberal: (Currently hold 6 of 11) Best -> 8 of 11 (Pickup South Shore-St. Margaret’s and Halifax) Worst -> 5 of 11 (Lose West Nova)
Conservative: (Currently hold 2 of 11)Best -> 3 of 11 (Pickup West Nova) Worst -> 0 of 11 (Lose South Shore-St. Margaret’s and Central Nova)
NDP: (Currently hold 2 of 11) Best -> 3 of 11 (Pickup South Shore-St. Margaret’s) Worst -> 1 of 11 (Lose Halifax)
Greens: (Currently hold 0 of 11) Best -> 1 of 11 (Pickup Central Nova)Worst -> Status Quo
Independent: (Currently hold 1 of 11) Best/Worst -> Status Quo (it’s just gonna happen)

All in all, 6 safe seats (5 Liberal, 1 NDP) with 5 seats that “could” change, but knowing Nova Scotians, look for a similar result to the status quo on election night.