I predict the following electoral outcomes in northeastern Ontario tonight:

1 Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing: This will be one of the closest races in the region. Carol Hughes of the NDP by a nose.

2 Nickel Belt: Another close race but the NDP’s Claude Gravelle will take it at the end of a long night.

3 Nipissing-Timiskaming:  An easy win for Anthony Rota with Conservative Sinicrope a relatively distant second.

4 Parry Sound-Muskoka:  The closest race in the country last time should see Conservative Tony Clement waltz to victory.

5 Sault Ste. Marie:  Tony Martin of the NDP appears to be a shoe-in in the Sault although not without a challenge.

6 Sudbury:  Diane Marleau of the Liberals is likely to hold this seat but it will be a lot tighter than an incumbent should have to face.

7 Timmins-James Bay:  An easy win for Charlie Angus who appears to be making this into an NDP stronghold.

Totals:  CPC: 1 seat; LPC: 2 seats; NDP: 4 seats; GPC: 0 seats

The last two all-candidates meetings of this campaign will take place Thu 09 Oct. The hopefuls get an early start with a live debate on CKAT radio 600 AM. The program, hosted by Dean Belanger, gets under way at 08:00. The program will also be available via a live stream on the Internet. Voters can email questions to the candidates by mailing them to Belanger at CKAT in advance of the program.

Thursday evening, the Mattawa-Bonfield Chamber of Commerce will be hosting its all candidates meeting at the Champlain Theatre in Mattawa at 19:00.

All the candidates have confirmed for both events.

The riding of Nickel Belt, in northeastern Ontario, comprises a large swath of ground surrounding Sudbury Riding on three sides: the south, east and north. Nickel Belt is bordered to the west by Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing, to the northeast by Timmins—James Bay, to the east by Nipissing—Timiskaming and to the south by Parry Sound—Muskoka. The riding was first constituted for the general election of 1953. Since then, the Liberals have won the riding twelve times and the New Democrats have taken it six times. Most recently, Liberal Ray Bonin has held the riding since 1993 but Bonin has retired and there is no incumbent this time.

The NDP candidate is Claude Gravelle, a retired machinist in his third run for the prize. Last time, he was defeated by Bonin by just over 2000 votes.

The Conservatives, who came a distant third last time, are being represented by Ian McCracken, an office equipment salesman. This is McCracken’s first attempt at seeking elected office.

The Liberal hopeful this time is Louise Portelance, a former Sudbury municipal councillor and Deputy Mayor. Portelance failed in her 2003 bid for the mayor’s office in Sudbury. This is her first foray into federal politics.

Steve Rutchinski is the Marxist-Leninist candidate. This is Rutchinski’s third consecutive attempt at capturing the seat. His best showing was 51 votes in the 2004 election.

Fred Twilley carries the Green Party banner into the fray this time. Twilley is a retired engineer and this is his first attempt at elected office. The Greens finished fifth in the last campaign with fewer than 1000 votes.

Independent Yves Villeneuve is seeking the seat in his first attempt. Villeneuve speaks in socially conservative terms: his website states that “Canada is founded on the supremacy of God.”

This is most definitely a two-horse race. Both Gravelle and Portelance have been pounding the pavement in the riding for several months. The result could be close this time but I’d venture that Gravelle has the early lead and momentum on his side. Whoever takes this seat, it may be a long night on the 14th as we wait for the last polls to return.

I’ve now read the postings of several pundits both within and without DemocraticSpace about the format of tonight’s leaders debate. Specifically, most people preferred the fact that the leaders were sitting about an elliptical table rather than standing at podia.

I thought there may be some of you out there who would like to hear a candidate’s perspective on the issue. I’ve attended quite a number of debates as a federal election candidate. I estimate that about one-fifth of those debates had me standing at a podium for the entire time. The rest had us standing for opening and closing remarks and sitting for the rest of the time.

Now, I’m not the most fit physical specimen but neither am I the sort of person who prefers to sit for long periods of time. I’m the sort who likes to sit for a while and then stand. As a consequence, I found the debates where we had to stand at a podium for two to three hours at a time to be very tiring. I’d get a sore back. Some of the podia have a little bar on the podium to place my foot; such a thing would provide me some relief but it would still be painful and tiring by the time we were done.

I’ve been told that Ms May has recently had a hip replacement and that she’s still convalescing from that. If that’s the case, I think it incredibly fortunate for her that the debate format was changed to allow the candidates to be seated.

Aside from the general consensus that the round table format allowed better interaction among the various players, I’m sure it made for a more relaxed and spontaneous interchange.

Of course, this is just one candidate’s impression. Your mileage may vary…

On any given day, I’m left to wonder precisely who will show up to lead the Conservatives. One day, Conservative supporters will tell us that Harper is an economist with stellar credentials who is our only hope against an economic ill wind. The next day, these same pundits tell us that Canada’s economic challenges are entirely external and that Harper, as much as anyone else, is entirely powerless to help us in any way.

In an effort to decipher for myself the reality of the day, I sat down to watch an entire hour of coverage on CPAC showing Harper, in his own words. Sure, there was a lot of spit and polish on the man but, in the end, I was left with the abiding impression that Harper was possessed by the spirit of Bobby McFerrin. As he spoke, I could swear I could hear strains of Don’t Worry, Be Happy playing in the background.

I was virtually stunned into silence to hear Harper criticise the opposition leaders for having the temerity to mention that we might be suffering economic challenges ahead while, all the while, it’s an open secret that Harper called the election when he did because he was worried about a worsening economy.

I’m being non-partisan on this blog but, I hope, being non-partisan does not preclude me from expressing the fact that I’m dumbfounded by Harper’s seemingly incomprehensible behaviour…

The candidates got together Tuesday evening (30 Sep) for their most important debate of the campaign. The North Bay and District Chamber of Commerce debate typically attracts about 300 people, and last night was no exception. In addition, the debate is carried live on local television and radio. This year, for the first time, it was also available on streaming audio on the internet. The local cable station tends to replay it, in its entirety, every three or four days, as well, so this is make or break time for candidates.

Instead of trying to recount the minutiae of the proceedings, I’ll try to summarise the main thrusts and parries of each candidate.

The New Democratic Party candidate in this riding is Dianna Allen. Allen turned in a solid performance, appearing well briefed on the issues. She managed to score a major point when the Liberal candidate went on at some length about a private member’s bill he had introduced. Allen managed to cut in and pointed out that the bill was actually copied from an earlier bill introduced by New Democrat Tony Martin. Allen scored well with the crowd when she attacked the government, especially with her comments about the secretive nature of the Conservatives and their refusal to allow for public scrutiny of the negotiations around the North American Union and the Security and Prosperity Partnership.

Craig Bridges represented the Green Party in the debate. The youngest face on the slate, Bridges nevertheless appeared more than competent in handling the various questions asked of the candidates. His passion for the environment shone through as he asked the crowd, again and again, not to be deceived by the government’s admonition that the false choice is a strong economy or a healthy environment. Bridges also scored solid hits against theLiberals by pointing out that, despite their attractive rhetoric, they failed to get the job done when they had the chance.

Dr Andrew Moulden is a physician who has returned to North Bay to represent the Canadian Action Party. Although Moulden left no doubt about his passion and his commitment to the electorate, his major challenge appeared to be the somewhat unitary focus of his campaign. At the end of the night, it appeared that every question elicited a similar response that was clearly meant to demonise big Pharma. The candidate went on at length about vaccines and his view that they are “killing our children”. Moulden succeeded in scoring a few points with the crowd when he waxed eloquent about the Conservative government’s Bill C-51 which, in his words, will “kill thousands of people by denying them the natural medicines they need to cure disease”. The crowd also appeared mildly receptive to his criticisms of the international banking “conspiracy”, reviving, for the elders and historians in the crowd, many of the old Social Credit positions on debt and debt financing.

The Liberal candidate is the incumbent Anthony Rota. Rota’s been the MP for the riding since its inception in 2004. His experience and preparation showed and he was definitely the most polished candidate on the podium. Interestingly, although he did defend the Green Shift, he did so while barely even mentioning the name of Liberal leader Stéphane Dion. Rota was running on Rota’s record and, if the overtly partisan crowd was any indication, he was well positioned to do so. Rota managed to score a big point against Conservative Joe Sinicrope when he said that one “catches more bees with honey than with vinegar” and not by bullying people like another person who “I won’t name but who is well known to” Sinicrope. At one point, the largely Liberal crowd became nearly giddy when Rota waved a document he claimed to have just received through an access to information request that clearly put the lie to Sinicrope’s constant denials that the Conservatives had cut any money from the FedNor regional economic development budget.

Joe Sinicrope, the Conservative candidate, was clearly loaded for bear and his sights were set squarely on the Liberals. In sum, he really provided nothing new; every one of his comments stuck very closely to the tried and true Conservative talking points that we hear in the nightly news. Sinicrope elicited some sparks from the crowd when he gave a solemn promise to see that the local 3000 metre airport runway would be repaved by the feds, a commitment the Conservative Finance Minister refused to give when he passed through the riding just days ago. Sinicrope also was the brunt of a few hostile jeers when he was asked what his position was on therapeutic abortion; he failed to directly answer the question, choosing instead to tell the crowd what Harper had said at some time in the past. Outside of the debate venue, the riding is rife with rumours about internal strife within the Conservative riding association. A person close to the campaign suggested that “the old guard are staying home this time”.

The absolutely unacceptable moderating job turned in by the Chamber 1st Vice-President Derek Shogren was a major distraction for those who came out to hear the various candidates although, for the committed Liberal or Conservative supporters in the crowd, it may not have been quite as overt. On several occasions, Shogren said “I’m going to ask Mr Rota and Mr Sinicrope to answer this and then we have to move along.” After the debate, two of the candidates mentioned to me that they felt they’d been passed over and had been short-changed in the time to respond, sentiments which appeared to me to be justified.

In summary, no single candidate scored the knockout punch they may have been looking for. Rota, as the incumbent and front runner, emerged relatively unscathed which is probably what his campaign had hoped for. In my last post, I indicated that I feel this riding is Rota’s to lose. Nothing I saw on Tuesday evening changed that opinion. Unless Rota makes a serious gaffe, he’ll walk to victory on the 14th.

Nipissing—Timiskaming Riding is in the southern portion of Northeastern Ontario. The major population centre is the City of North Bay. The riding covers an area from Algonquin Park to the head of Lake Temiskaming. It’s bordered to the west by Nickle Belt Riding, to the east by the Ottawa River and Lake Temiskaming, to the southwest by Parry Sound—Muskoka, to the southeast by Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke and to the north by Timmins—James Bay.

Although the riding was first created for the 2004 election, about 80% of it comprises the prior Nipissing Riding. Since 2004, it’s been represented by Liberal Anthony Rota. The riding’s main predecessor, Nipissing, was pretty solidly Liberal, federally, since Confederation, with only a few exceptions.

Rota is running for re-election this time and he’s going to be tough to beat, especially given Northern Ontario’s seeming propensity to re-elect incumbents. His campaign got off to an early start in the sign war, with Rota signs springing up the day the election was called.

The Conservatives are represented by North Bay lawyer Joe Sinicrope. The interesting twist to this story is that Sinicrope once sought the Liberal nomination and was defeated in that quest by the same Anthony Rota who now holds the seat. Despite some delay in rolling out their visible campaign, the Conservatives now appear to be running in full gear.

The New Democrat hopeful this time around is Dianna Allen. Allen is a retired nurse who currently lives in Parry Sound—Muskoka riding. Although Allen was nominated a little late, several days into the campaign, she got off to a quick start with daily interviews and news releases in the first few days after her nomination. Since then, there has been somewhat of a silence emanating from the New Democrat campaign.

The Green Party is being represented by North Bay businessman and community activist Craig Bridges. The Greens are definite players in the sign war, for the first time, although their signs tend to be understated and strategically located rather than broadcast as the other parties have them.

In terms of the sign war, the Liberals definitely have the edge on public spaces but also on private property. The NDP have not yet deployed any signs.

This week, the candidates were at Canadore College/Nipissing university for a student-sponsored all-candidates meeting. Unfortunately, I was unable to attend but I can say from personal experience that the Greens and the New Democrats usually are better-received at this debate than at any of the others. The big-money debate, so to speak, in this riding is the North Bay Chamber of Commerce debate. I’ll try to attend that one, if I can, and report back on it.

In summary, look for Rota to retain this riding. I predict the margin will be similar to what it was last time.