Predicted winner – Conservative

In 2004, Liberal MP Paul Zed was effective in getting the message out to voters that they should have a Member of Parliament who was in government. He picked up the seat by about 3500 votes. In ’06 he went back in but his lead shrunk to about 1500 votes.

In this election, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that the Conservatives will be back in power, it’s just a matter of whether they have a majority or a minority. With former PC MLA Rodney Weston carrying the Conservative banner, people may decide they want to have an MP on the government side.

Paul Zed has been regarded as a decent MP for the area but the Liberals carbon tax proposal hasn’t exactly been embraced with open arms in this area where energy and the Irvings are dominant players. The Green Shift promises to chew in to any lead Zed once enjoyed.

X-Factor – Saint Johners have no problem not voting for government. In 1993, when the Progressive Conservatives were decimated, Saint John was one of two ridings in the country that voted in a PC (although it was Elsie Wayne who probably could have run for the Rhino Party and won the seat) and kept it Tory for two more elections when Liberal majorities reigned.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Predicted winner – Liberal

This should have been the election for the Conservatives in Fredericton. Liberal Andy Scott called it quits after holding the riding for 15 years in what had previously long been a traditional Tory seat, theoretically making the seat ripe for the taking.

The Tories however picked New Maryland Progressive Conservative MLA Keith Ashfield to carry the banner. When he won the nomination, part of the reason he was able to secure fellow candidate William Forestall’s supporters votes was a statement that he was pro-life (IE : not a supporter of abortion). That didn’t mean he was actually going to do anything about it in Parliament (nobody does) but that was his personal view. Yet when he had a chance to express that personal view when asked on CBC Radio locally (every candidate was) he refused to answer. Even Liberal candidate David Innes answered, indicating he was in fact personally against abortion but that was his personal view, not that of the Party. Ashfield effectively alienated social-conservatives while Innes provided himself as an alternative to them (without actually promising to do anything). That’s just one issue but it made Ashfield seem wishy-washy and that he couldn’t take a stand. In a tight race, it may be just enough.

Meanwhile, the Greens have run an extremely strong local campaign for Mary Lou Babineau which will probably place them in third ahead of the NDP. The NDP have had a low-key campaign locally and they’ll suffer for it. So will the Conservatives. Innes is going to be able to grab a lot of soft-right votes and soft-left votes, enough to give him the seat.

X-Factor – Voter apathy will probably affect the Conservatives in this riding more than the Liberals as those who don’t care for Ashfield as their candidate just stay home. The prospect of Stephane Dion as Prime Minister though might make some who wouldn’t vote for Ashfield, hold their nose anyway and vote for the Conservatives. Enough to give them the seat though remains to be seen.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Predicted winner – Conservative

Tobique-Mactaquac stretches from outside the city of Fredericton to just north of the bilingual Town of Grand Falls. Conservative MP Mike Allen won this seat in the 2006 election by a mere 250 or so votes over Liberal Andy Savoy. Savoy himself had first taken the seat from the Progressive Conservatives in 2000 by a mere 150 votes although he increased his vote considerably in 2004 thanks in part to a local riding controversy over who would carry the Conservative banner in the riding.

This time Savoy isn’t running in favour of Stanley teacher Sally McGrath who is largely an unknown in much of the riding. Allen has had two and a half years to establish his name throughout the vast riding (not to mention this being his fourth election). Expect him to win this riding and increase his vote.

X-Factor – The NDP and Greens are relatively weak in this riding, more so than in other N.B. ridings. This is a riding where strategic voting if it were utilized heavily could give the Liberals the seat.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Predicted winner – Liberal

Liberal Brian Murphy wasn’t able to totally obliterate his opponents like his predecessor Claudette Bradshaw but he still picked up the seat in 2006 by 8500 votes. This time around Conservative Daniel Allain has put up an impressive campaign and will undoubtedly close that gap. Thanks to a strong local Green campaign and a strong national NDP campaign, the gap may not be as much as some think. Still, Murphy will likely still be MP come Wednesday.

X-Factor – Blue Wave. Traditionally, the riding is usually on the government side. If people feel the Conservatives are going into government, they may vote in high enough numbers to give Allain the seat.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Predicted winner – Conservative

Ridings don’t come much bluer than this one. Only once has this riding gone Liberal and that was in 1993 when Progressive Conservatives dropped faster than Sarah Palin “g’s”.
The one Liberal to hold the seat, Paul Zed had to go to another riding to reach his aspirations of going back to Parliament. Conservative Rob Moore has this one lock, stock and barrel.

X-Factor – Nada. Some diehard Liberal supporters say strategic voting might change the tide, but it wouldn’t be enough.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Predicted winner – Liberal

Liberal Dominic Leblanc has managed to up the number of votes he receives in every election he’s fought. In 2006, he outpolled Conservative Omer Léger by 7000 votes. Léger is giving it another go this election and while he’ll probably close the gap, it won’t be enough.

X-Factor – Stephane Dion, particularly in the small Anglophone portion of the riding but not enough to matter.

Spink About It

Fait étonnant, c’est un Gilles Duceppe visiblement agacé des attaques que subit Stéphane Dion à propos de la qualité de son anglais, qui s’est porté à la défense de ce dernier. Qualifiant la sortie de Stephen Haper à l’endroit du chef du Parti libéral de « coup bas », M. Duceppe est d’avis que les commentaires du genre n’ont pas leur place en campagne électorale. Selon le chef du Bloc québécois, plusieurs leaders politiques éprouvent des difficultés à s’exprimer dans les deux langues officielles.

Bonjour my friend, how are you mon ami ?

Il faut avouer que le bilinguisme des chefs des cinq principaux partis politiques varie énormément d’un à l’autre. Et si le français de Jack Layton est de loin supérieur à celui d’Elizabeth May, il est permis de s’étonner des propos de Stephen Harper dont le français est relativement du même calibre que l’anglais de Stéphane Dion.

Toujours selon Gilles Duceppe, « M. Dion fait des efforts pour parler en anglais et je pense qu’il a progressé. On demande beaucoup plus aux francophones de bien parler anglais qu’aux anglophones de bien parler français. Il y a deux poids, deux mesures. »

À ce propos, il est indéniable que le bilinguisme canadien n’existe que sur papier. En effet, selon Statistique Canada (chiffres de 2007), seulement 17% des Canadiens sont bilingues. Or, cette donnée masque le véritable écart qui existe entre le Québec et le ROC. En effet, si l’on fait exception du Nouveau-Brunswick où il atteint 33,4% – principalement en raison de la population acadienne –, le taux de bilinguisme est beaucoup moins reluisant dans le ROC, où il varie de 4 à 12%, qu’au Québec où il atteint 40,6%.

Baignant dans une Amérique en grande majorité anglophone, il est généralement admis que les Québécois d’origine francophone ont tout à gagner à maîtriser l’anglais.

Cela dit, en ce qui a trait au « bilinguisme canadien », ces derniers n’ont pas de leçons à recevoir de CTV, de Stephen Harper, ni même de l’ensemble ROC.

Predicted winner – Conservative

In 2006 Conservative Jean-Pierre Ouellet came within a 1000 votes of current Liberal MP Jean Claude D’Amours. Ouellet and D’Amours are going to battle it out again but this time Ouellet should come out on top. The NDP have picked up more than 20% the last two elections and even though they’re running a new candidate this time around, they should do at least that well. The Greens will also pick up more votes and all of this is at the expense of the Liberals. The vote split and strong Conservative vote from the Madawaska part of the riding should push Ouellet over the top.

X-Factor – Ouellet might win it but it’s still going to be a close one. Voter apathy may just result in people staying home. If that happens though it will probably cause more harm to D’Amours. Conservatives tend to get out and vote more particularly since it’s their Party in power.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Predicted Winner – Conservative

Short of the 1993 obliteration of the Progressive Conservatives, Greg Thompson has held this seat since 1988. The last few elections Thompson has picked up more than 50% of the vote.

X-Factor – None. As sure a bet as Acadie-Bathurst is for the NDP, this is Thompson’s seat.

Crossposted -Spink About It

Predicted winner – Liberal

Liberal Charles Hubbard has held the seat since 1993. He’s considered by many to be a good MP who generally takes a centrist stand on issues. He was against the gun registry due to the rural nature of his riding but the National Gun Registry still was located in his riding along with the jobs that go with it. Talk about having your cake and eating it too.

X-Factor – Disdain, distrust or a lack of understanding of the Liberal’s carbon tax might eat into some of Hubbard’s support but he has a weak competition this time around which should more than make up for any losses.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Predicted Winner – NDP

Called the giant killer for beating Liberal Cabinet Minister Doug Young in 1997, NDP MP Yvon Godin has now won four consecutive elections in a province which generally doesn’t support the NDP provincially or federally. He won the last election with 50% of the vote.

X-Factor – None. This one is in the bag for Godin.

Crossposted – Spink About It

I always try to offer up my predictions before an election. My blogging colleague NB Politico does some extensive predictions which fluctuate a bit as time goes by based on a number of factors. Mine are based on what I’ve read, people I’ve talked to throughout the province from various political backgrounds (and sometimes none) and my own experience. These aren’t wish lists of mine. They are simply how I think things will go.

Overall, like many, it’s hard to believe Stephen Harper won’t be Prime Minister after the election. It’s simply a matter of whether he’ll have a minority or majority, making New Brunswick’s ten seats important.

I’ll run through all 10 New Brunswick ridings over the new week. Some of the commentary will be quite short, others longer. There are a few ridings which are fluctuating quite a bit which I’ll hold off until closer to the end to make a call. Your take as always is welcomed.

Crossposted – Spink About It

The Brian Murphy MP Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe website is temporarily off-line during the 2008 Federal election.

?!?

He’s still the MP though isn’t he?

Crossposted – Spink About It

Quelqu’un va-t-il oser le dire? Et si les troupes de Jack Layton formaient la prochaine opposition officielle? Ce rêve que caressent les néo-démocrates depuis tant d’années semble désormais à portée de la main. C’est du moins le cas si on en croit les tout derniers sondages.

Le Harris/Decima, tenu du 21 au 24 septembre, révèle en effet que les conservateurs recueillent 36% des intentions de vote, suivis des libéraux à 23%, des néo-démocrates à 17%, des verts à 12%, puis des bloquistes à 9%. C’est ainsi que depuis le début de la campagne, l’écart entre le NPD et les libéraux a fondu de moitié, passant de 12 à seulement 6 points.

Même son de cloche chez Ekos qui dévoile quant à lui un écart encore plus mince, soit 5 points; le Parti libéral étant à 24% et le NPD à 19% (sondage effectué du 21 au 23 septembre).

Finalement, le Nanos quotidien était hier le premier à donner le NPD troisième au Québec : derrière le PC et le Bloc, mais devant les libéraux.

Sans proportionnelles, c’est à partir de 20% des voix que le nombre de sièges commence réellement à refléter le nombre de votes. Or, s’il est peut-être illusoire pour Jack Layton de penser atteindre la barre des 25%, il ne semble cependant pas y avoir de plancher pour les libéraux. C’est d’ailleurs pourquoi le NPD continue de tirer sur le parti de Stéphane Dion à boulets rouges. Leur plus récent effort à cet effet est la mise en ligne de pas moins de 87 vidéos sur YouTube dépeignant les libéraux comme un parti absent. On y voit en effet les chaises vides des députés libéraux lors de 43 votes de confiance. Des absences qui ne sont pas sans contredire l’argument voulant qu’ils soient les seuls à s’opposer de façon efficace au Parti conservateur.

Comme si ce n’était pas assez, l’ancien président du Parti libéral, qui était en fonction de 1998 à 2003, Stephen LeDrew, a publiquement souhaité que sa formation politique subisse une cuisante défaite aux élections du 14 octobre. « C’est la seule façon de s’assurer que le parti sera reconstruit sur des assises solides », estime-t-il. Dans une lettre ouverte publiée dans le National Post, M. LeDrew déclare en effet que les libéraux de Stéphane Dion ne vont nulle part. Il met entre autres le blâme sur l’impopularité du chef, l’ensemble du programme électoral, mais plus spécifiquement sur la formule de la taxe sur le carbone qu’il décrit comme « incompréhensible ou carrément stupide ». LeDrew conclut en affirmant « À moins d’un miracle, les libéraux vont subir toute une raclée durant cette élection. Et c’est exactement ce dont ils ont besoin s’ils veulent que le parti demeure une force nationale viable ».

Il va sans dire que pour le NPD, cet appui inespéré ne pouvait pas mieux tomber. Continuant à faire flèche de tout bois, le chef néo-démocrate semble bien décidé à convaincre les Québécois d’entrer à leur tour dans la danse. Jack Layton est d’ailleurs le seul chef de parti à ne pas fermer la porte à la création d’un CRTC québécois; une revendication du gouvernement Charest.

Si la tendance se maintient, Thomas Mulcair ne sera peut-être pas le seul néo-démocrate à se faire élire au Québec.

Not to say they don’t exist. They do but Conservatives dominate the blogging scene. More on that at this neat feature at CBC regarding the online component of the federal election. H/T to Terry Seguin of CBC Fredericton’s Information Morning who mentioned this today (Two plugs for CBC in a week. Who would have thought?)

This actually comes a day after mikel pointed out in the comments of one of the blogs here that I had in the past mentioned there was a lack of left-winged blogs. Seems it’s a cross country phenomenon not just New Brunswick.

Why?

I don’t know. Conspiracy theories don’t wash since anyone regardless of their political stripe can start a blog for nothing except their time. In New Brunswick at least, many of the political blogs might favour conservative ideals but tend to lean towards being non-partisan instead of joining the Blogging Tories or Liblogs for whatever reason.

As I mentioned to Mike, maybe it’s because the Left already has most of the mainstream media so there’s little problem getting their voices heard. Maybe. Maybe it’s something else. Conspiracy theories aside, your thoughts?

Crossposted – Spink About It

This is my first post on DemocraticSPACE.com, thanks for the opportunity to chime in. You can catch the rest of my misdirected ramblings here.

First off, kudos to the contributors who raced me here with their own insightful early impressions of the campaign in the Atlantic provinces. Since the Globe and Mail won’t bother, and the Hill Times seems way off the mark (Random-Burin-St. George’s??? come on!!!), I’ll start by listing the ten ridings that I think are worth watching in the region. I’ll let others predict winners and losers, but here’s a rundown of the ten I’m keeping an eye on this time around.

New Brunswick

Fredericton
A longtime Tory stronghold, Liberal Andy Scott posted an impressive string of electoral victories in five elections from 1993 through 2006. His successor, David Innes, will have his hands full holding this riding for the Liberals. Scott won the riding through his broad centrist appeal, and an uncanny ability to keep social progressives in the Liberal fold. The consolidation of conservative votes on the right, and the mixed blessing of the election of a provincial Liberal administration in the capital city loom large. One intangible element which may play to Innes’s favour is the disappearance of the NDP from the provincial scene. Even though their only MLA was from Saint John, the fact that the party has had no presence in the legislature, nor accompanying party resources, will probably hinder their organizational efforts in the city. If this race becomes tight, it may make the difference.

Madawaska Restigouche
You have to include this riding in any list of ones to watch simply by virtue of the fact that it’s been so close in the past. Incumbent Liberal MP Jean-Claude D’Amours can hold this riding if he can increase his support in his hometown of Edmundston and the surrounding area. In 2006, despite winning the riding, he lost most polls in the areas closest to home, securing victory instead by winning big in the Campbelton area. This is an interesting riding to watch because it is one of the few francophone areas of the province with a longstanding Tory tradition. A large chink of the current riding falls within the old boundaries of Mulroney-era cabinet heavyweight Bernard Valcourt. Having come so close in the last election, the Conservatives will be focusing much of their efforts on this riding.

PEI

Cardigan
20-year veteran Liberal MP Lawrence MacAulay has had his ups and downs but always seems to pull out a victory in the end. The Cardigan riding was heavily targeted by the Tories in the last two elections, and in response, MacAulay actually increased his majority. MacAulay first won the riding in 1988 by defeating Pat Binns, who would later become PEI’s Premier. It had been widely speculated that Binns would be Stephen Harper’s candidate, but he was appointed Ambassador to Ireland. While it seems the Tories are now looking to the other side of the Island, where Egmont MP Joe McGuire has retired from politics, history shows Cardigan as consistently the closest race to watch. I’m not sure it will be this time, but if the Conservatives start seeing rosy polling numbers in Atlantic Canada down the homestretch, they’ll be eying this one in the campaign’s later stages. Not to be forgotten is that Peter MacKay has a lot riding on this. Once again, he’s been tasked with the political responsibility of finding a winning candidate and a winnable riding.

Nova Scotia

Halifax
In the past two years this riding has become a veritable game of musical chairs. It started when provincial Tory heavyweight and John Hamm cabinet minister Jane Purves dropped her nomination bid in protest against Stephen Harper’s backtracking on his Equalization commitment. A few months later the nominated Liberal candidate, Martin MacKinnon, dropped out. Then another Tory candidacy ended before it could get off the ground. Then Alexis McDonald, the NDP’s heir apparent, lost the nomination. This is ground zero of the NDP strength in Atlantic Canada, and it will take a weird set of circumstances to see it switch. But if Alexa McDonough only won by a whisker in 2000 and 2004, then 2008 just might be the year. The biggest story of all in this riding may be who isn’t running. If the Green Party finishes this campaign without gaining a seat, Elizabeth May’s party will rue the day they decided not to contest this one.

Central Nova
There are a lot of free agent voters in this riding. The NDP can’t possibly attain the numbers of the last campaign, the Liberals aren’t running a candidate, and the Green Party Leader is squaring off against Peter MacKay. She has her work cut out for her. Being on the national stage will help, but she’s got a lot of doors to knock on in the meantime.

South Shore – St. Margaret’s
If the Liberals are to make any gains in the Maritimes, this is probably where they’ll start. While Keddy has a few things going for him, breaking ranks with the Tories in the past on issues like gay marriage. Gerald Keddy now faces some backlash for Harper’s Equalization follies, and his weak response. Keddy’s held this seat comfortably in the past, and benefited from some increased NDP votes of late, but this time he faces a Liberal opponent in Bill Smith who has been on the campaign trail for months and carries significant support from his recent provincial bid as an NDP candidate. If Smith can win the Eastern part of the riding, while rebuilding some of the old Liberal areas in the southernmost county, he just might unseat Keddy.

West Nova
Always a nail biter… Even in 1997, when we Liberals were getting our collective a** handed to us on election night, this riding wasn’t called until well after midnight. And it’s been a roller coaster ever since. Robert Thibault is the first MP in a long, long time to win successive elections in this riding, but they’ve been close. Running against former provincial cabinet minister Greg Kerr, he’ll have his hands full again. But he had his hands full last time, and the time before…

Newfoundland & Labrador

Let’s save the most entertaining for last, shall we?

St. John’s East
The best thing about this riding, is that this election will finally be about something other than charitable vote-buying with Norm Doyle’s provincial pension. The favourite to replace him is Jack Harris, the former provincial NDP Leader who held the job for most of the past decade (albeit as a part-time job). He briefly held the seat federally after winning a by-election in 1987. He’s also a former law partner of Premier Danny Williams, whose future public endorsement is the worst-kept secret in the province. Williams’ ABC campaign may dominate the media in St. John’s, but it will have little impact on the eventual outcome. That being said, this federal riding was a safe PC seat for a long time, but has never really been a safe riding for the latest iteration of the Conservative Party. Craig Westcott will do a capable job of rebutting Premier Williams’ more juvenile interventions, but the only party with a shot at catching the NDP in this seat is probably the Liberals. But to do that they’d need a strong candidate…

Avalon
The riding is a bit of a geographic anomaly, created out of bits and pieces of the former rural portions of the St. John’s ridings, westward and encompassing the rest of the Avalon Peninsula. (Most of) the riding has been represented by a string of recent Liberal federal ministers; Mifflin, Tobin, and Efford. It’s a wonder it isn’t held by a minister now. One of the biggest questions on the minds of Harper loyalists in Ottawa is why he didn’t put Fabian Manning in cabinet during the last shuffle, given the extreme likelihood that he would be the only incumbent re-offering. The Tories will throw everything they have at this seat, but the lack of any NDP presence, and the never-ending barrage of ABC media follies might give newcomer Scott Andrews a real shot at regaining this one for the Liberals.

St. John’s South – Mt. Pearl
Traditionally, the safest Tory seat east of Alberta. Well maybe. Or maybe not. But its demographics are changing. A much more urban and diverse community than it was in the days that John Crosbie held the seat and won it with massive majorities. The biggest impact of the ABC campaign waged by Williams will be the resulting absence of campaign volunteers for the local Conservatives. Liberal Siobhan Coady has a team that’s well-rehearsed, having contested the riding twice already. Danny’s tirades may help in the short term, but what’s really playing in Coady’s favour is the absence of former NDP candidate Peg Norman, whose impressive third place finishes denied Coady the seat in 2004. If the Liberals make gains in the Newfoundland and Labrador, they’ll start right here. The riding is not without its own share of entertainment value, however…

I am no military strategist by any stretch of the imagination so maybe I’m off base.

However, this had me perplexed when the Opposition was trying to put firm deadlines on Canada pulling the plug on Afghanistan. Now that the Conservatives are talking about a 2011 withdraw, well…

Telling the Taliban when you’re leaving just doesn’t seem smart. Granted there are other countries there and this isn’t just Canada’s war but some kind of measure of success besides a date thrown out during an election campaign would seem to be a better idea.

In the Fredericton riding which is home to CFB Gagetown, it will be interesting how this plays out at the polling booths. Should we be there or not has been a debate across the country but it is worth noting that since 9/11 there have been no terrorist attacks on North American soil and life for many Afghanis has improved thanks to the Canadian Military.

War sucks but it would be a shame if all the work done by our soldiers (counting nearly 100 who gave their lives) ended up being reversed the moment we pull the plug because of an arbitrary deadline set in the heat of an election.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Paul Zed held his annual corn boil on Sunday, and with close to a thousand visitors (according to the local paper) showing up at Lily Lake despite overcast weather, the riding of Saint John looks like its his to lose.

While NB’s oldest city has a long Tory tradition (see Elsie Wayne), Zed has been successful in playing up urban issues (poverty, housing, the environment) and slowly turning Saint John red. He’s been helped by a weak NDP and Greens - this will likely be a 2 horse race, with progressive voters lining up behind Zed.

Of the three urban seats in NB, Saint John and Moncton are those most likely to remain Liberal (In Fredericton, a much closer contest is expected, due to a compelling Green candidate, and the departure of Andy Scott). Of NB’s ten seats, 2 – Fredericton, and Madawaska – are truly competitive.

Ten seats are up for grabs in New Brunswick. Only a handful are truly in play with at least six considered locks.  My blogging friend NB Politico has done an excellent job of offereing up predictions and frankly I can’t argue with any of them. You can check them out  here. The NDP will likely easily hang on to Acadie-Bathurst which they’ve had for a decade based on the popularity of local MP Yvon Godin. The Liberals will keep Miramichi, Beausejour and probably Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe. The rest are either safe Tory seats or leaning that way. Saint John will be interesting to watch with incumbent Liberal Paul Zed trying to hand on against Tory Rodney Weston (this was Elsie Wayne’s seat for years). Fredericton will also be fun to watch with Liberal Andy Scott calling it quits.

A few of my fellow bloggers have created a great blog to follow the New Brunswick (and Atlantic races) at New Brunswickers Paint the Political Picture. Well worth the visit for the latest in the N.B. races.

From a non-partisan but right-of-centre perpsective, I’ll be offering up my own take both here at Democratic Space and at my regular blog Spink About It on the N.B. races.