Alberta’s turnout was among the lowest in the country, fourth from the bottom, with the Northwest Territories (48.6%), Nunavut (49.4%) and Newfoundland & Labrador (48.1%) the only provinces or territories lower.

In the case of Alberta … that 94.6% virtual seat sweep was courtesy of 34.2% of the Alberta electorate. The other 65.8% of Alberta voters either stayed home or voted other than Conservative.

Now consider Newfoundland and Labrador…. Reports were common of demoralized Conservatives and the CPoC’s struggles to find people willing to run as candidates against the moneyed avalanche which was the ABC campaign.

Should progressives be pleased with the demoralization of the CPoC’s supporters in the province?

No, not if they hold that democracy should be inclusive of and for everyone, not just those with whose views they can agree.

I feel as bad for the disenfranchised Conservatives in NL as I do for the 65.8% disenfranchised Albertans who either voted differently or didn’t vote at all.

The numbers are telling. No matter which political ideology you hold, surely you can see that forcing a multi-party democracy into a two-party voting system is unfair to the electorate, undemocratic and horribly wrong….

Full article goes on to respond to a Toronto Star item on proportional representation. Predictably, The Star once again employs scare tactics in its endless argument against reforming our electoral system.

Predicted winner – Conservative

In 2004, Liberal MP Paul Zed was effective in getting the message out to voters that they should have a Member of Parliament who was in government. He picked up the seat by about 3500 votes. In ’06 he went back in but his lead shrunk to about 1500 votes.

In this election, it’s almost a foregone conclusion that the Conservatives will be back in power, it’s just a matter of whether they have a majority or a minority. With former PC MLA Rodney Weston carrying the Conservative banner, people may decide they want to have an MP on the government side.

Paul Zed has been regarded as a decent MP for the area but the Liberals carbon tax proposal hasn’t exactly been embraced with open arms in this area where energy and the Irvings are dominant players. The Green Shift promises to chew in to any lead Zed once enjoyed.

X-Factor – Saint Johners have no problem not voting for government. In 1993, when the Progressive Conservatives were decimated, Saint John was one of two ridings in the country that voted in a PC (although it was Elsie Wayne who probably could have run for the Rhino Party and won the seat) and kept it Tory for two more elections when Liberal majorities reigned.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Predicted winner – Liberal

This should have been the election for the Conservatives in Fredericton. Liberal Andy Scott called it quits after holding the riding for 15 years in what had previously long been a traditional Tory seat, theoretically making the seat ripe for the taking.

The Tories however picked New Maryland Progressive Conservative MLA Keith Ashfield to carry the banner. When he won the nomination, part of the reason he was able to secure fellow candidate William Forestall’s supporters votes was a statement that he was pro-life (IE : not a supporter of abortion). That didn’t mean he was actually going to do anything about it in Parliament (nobody does) but that was his personal view. Yet when he had a chance to express that personal view when asked on CBC Radio locally (every candidate was) he refused to answer. Even Liberal candidate David Innes answered, indicating he was in fact personally against abortion but that was his personal view, not that of the Party. Ashfield effectively alienated social-conservatives while Innes provided himself as an alternative to them (without actually promising to do anything). That’s just one issue but it made Ashfield seem wishy-washy and that he couldn’t take a stand. In a tight race, it may be just enough.

Meanwhile, the Greens have run an extremely strong local campaign for Mary Lou Babineau which will probably place them in third ahead of the NDP. The NDP have had a low-key campaign locally and they’ll suffer for it. So will the Conservatives. Innes is going to be able to grab a lot of soft-right votes and soft-left votes, enough to give him the seat.

X-Factor – Voter apathy will probably affect the Conservatives in this riding more than the Liberals as those who don’t care for Ashfield as their candidate just stay home. The prospect of Stephane Dion as Prime Minister though might make some who wouldn’t vote for Ashfield, hold their nose anyway and vote for the Conservatives. Enough to give them the seat though remains to be seen.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Predicted winner – Conservative

Tobique-Mactaquac stretches from outside the city of Fredericton to just north of the bilingual Town of Grand Falls. Conservative MP Mike Allen won this seat in the 2006 election by a mere 250 or so votes over Liberal Andy Savoy. Savoy himself had first taken the seat from the Progressive Conservatives in 2000 by a mere 150 votes although he increased his vote considerably in 2004 thanks in part to a local riding controversy over who would carry the Conservative banner in the riding.

This time Savoy isn’t running in favour of Stanley teacher Sally McGrath who is largely an unknown in much of the riding. Allen has had two and a half years to establish his name throughout the vast riding (not to mention this being his fourth election). Expect him to win this riding and increase his vote.

X-Factor – The NDP and Greens are relatively weak in this riding, more so than in other N.B. ridings. This is a riding where strategic voting if it were utilized heavily could give the Liberals the seat.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Predicted winner – Liberal

Liberal Brian Murphy wasn’t able to totally obliterate his opponents like his predecessor Claudette Bradshaw but he still picked up the seat in 2006 by 8500 votes. This time around Conservative Daniel Allain has put up an impressive campaign and will undoubtedly close that gap. Thanks to a strong local Green campaign and a strong national NDP campaign, the gap may not be as much as some think. Still, Murphy will likely still be MP come Wednesday.

X-Factor – Blue Wave. Traditionally, the riding is usually on the government side. If people feel the Conservatives are going into government, they may vote in high enough numbers to give Allain the seat.

Crossposted – Spink About It

On a beaucoup parlé de la campagne libérale, de ses ratés et de son chef mais si la lecture des sondages est exacte, le grand perdant de cette élection devrait être le chef conservateur Stephen Harper.

Comprenons-nous bien : la performance de l’actuel premier ministre, quoique très ordinaire depuis le débat des chefs, n’est pas catastrophique. Dans la moyenne pour être exact. Mais ce n’est pas là-dessus qu’il sera jugé.

Les conservateurs, comme la majorité des mouvements de droite, veulent des résultats. Les coupures aux subventions dans le domaine culturel et dans le développement économique des régions sont des exemples bien réels de cette idéologie politique. Si le retour sur l’investissement n’est pas bon, on coupe ou on remodèle le programme. La logique peut tenir.

Stephen Harper a décidé d’utiliser un des échappatoires de sa propre loi sur les élections à date fixe pour se lancer dans une campagne électorale qui n’avait pour but que d’aller chercher les sièges manquants à une majorité conservatrice. L’opportunisme politique avec un grand O, quoique le seul reproche qu’on puisse lui faire est d’avoir voilé sciemment l’esprit de la loi qu’il a mis en place.

Le résultat net, en date d’aujourd’hui, est que le Parti conservateur a fragilisé sa place à la Chambre des Communes. Après avoir créé de toutes pièces le personnage de Stéphane Dion, il a laissé les autres partis redéfinir son image. Il les a même aidés, par exemple avec sa position face à la situation économique mondiale. On ne se donne pas de chances lorsqu’on dit aux Canadiens d’investir dans la Bourse, alors que ceux-ci ne cherchent qu’à se faire rassurer. Pas plus qu’en présentant une plate-forme électorale (qui, malgré certains bons côtés, avait plutôt l’air d’un plan B fabriqué à la va-vite)… après le vote par anticipation.

Que feront les militants conservateurs après l’élection? Attendons les résultats, mais Stephen Harper devra répondre de ses actes. Si le résultat net de l’élection est le retour à la case départ, c’est que le premier ministre aura échoué son plus gros test politique.

Predicted winner – Conservative

Ridings don’t come much bluer than this one. Only once has this riding gone Liberal and that was in 1993 when Progressive Conservatives dropped faster than Sarah Palin “g’s”.
The one Liberal to hold the seat, Paul Zed had to go to another riding to reach his aspirations of going back to Parliament. Conservative Rob Moore has this one lock, stock and barrel.

X-Factor – Nada. Some diehard Liberal supporters say strategic voting might change the tide, but it wouldn’t be enough.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Predicted winner – Liberal

Liberal Dominic Leblanc has managed to up the number of votes he receives in every election he’s fought. In 2006, he outpolled Conservative Omer Léger by 7000 votes. Léger is giving it another go this election and while he’ll probably close the gap, it won’t be enough.

X-Factor – Stephane Dion, particularly in the small Anglophone portion of the riding but not enough to matter.

Spink About It

Fait étonnant, c’est un Gilles Duceppe visiblement agacé des attaques que subit Stéphane Dion à propos de la qualité de son anglais, qui s’est porté à la défense de ce dernier. Qualifiant la sortie de Stephen Haper à l’endroit du chef du Parti libéral de « coup bas », M. Duceppe est d’avis que les commentaires du genre n’ont pas leur place en campagne électorale. Selon le chef du Bloc québécois, plusieurs leaders politiques éprouvent des difficultés à s’exprimer dans les deux langues officielles.

Bonjour my friend, how are you mon ami ?

Il faut avouer que le bilinguisme des chefs des cinq principaux partis politiques varie énormément d’un à l’autre. Et si le français de Jack Layton est de loin supérieur à celui d’Elizabeth May, il est permis de s’étonner des propos de Stephen Harper dont le français est relativement du même calibre que l’anglais de Stéphane Dion.

Toujours selon Gilles Duceppe, « M. Dion fait des efforts pour parler en anglais et je pense qu’il a progressé. On demande beaucoup plus aux francophones de bien parler anglais qu’aux anglophones de bien parler français. Il y a deux poids, deux mesures. »

À ce propos, il est indéniable que le bilinguisme canadien n’existe que sur papier. En effet, selon Statistique Canada (chiffres de 2007), seulement 17% des Canadiens sont bilingues. Or, cette donnée masque le véritable écart qui existe entre le Québec et le ROC. En effet, si l’on fait exception du Nouveau-Brunswick où il atteint 33,4% – principalement en raison de la population acadienne –, le taux de bilinguisme est beaucoup moins reluisant dans le ROC, où il varie de 4 à 12%, qu’au Québec où il atteint 40,6%.

Baignant dans une Amérique en grande majorité anglophone, il est généralement admis que les Québécois d’origine francophone ont tout à gagner à maîtriser l’anglais.

Cela dit, en ce qui a trait au « bilinguisme canadien », ces derniers n’ont pas de leçons à recevoir de CTV, de Stephen Harper, ni même de l’ensemble ROC.

Andrew Krystal, perhaps the most straightforward talk-radio host in Atlantic Canada, spent this morning taking Steve Murphy and the ATV newsroom to task for their airing of Stephane Dion’s fumbling of an economic question during a taped interview.

Krystal’s criticism? That leaders fumble all the time in interviews, and many reporters (keen to have lucid answers) will give the politician the chance to call a mulligan. Harper himself had to use a mulligan when conducting an interview with Krystal over Iraq a few years back – because the interview was taped, the talk radio gave the conservative leader a chance to do a do-over.

Murphy gave Dion this chance, but then decided that having a leader stumble over the verb tense in a single question was more news-worthy than having a lucid discussion on economic matters. This shows either poor news judgement on Murphy’s part, or an implicit conservative bias (in his memoirs, Murphy regales in telling the reader how hard he was on John Turner during the 1988 election campaign).

Let’s be clear. Dion’s fumble is in no way an indication of his ability to handle the current economic crisis. This was not at all like Sarah Palin’s incomprehension over the Bush doctrine, or suggestions that close proximity to Russia made here an expert in Foreign Policy. It was a linguistic fumble, and offered no glimpse as to the Liberal leader’s economic thinking. Perhaps Dion would have satisfied Murphy if he took a page from Harper’s playbook and simply stated, “If I were Prime Minister today, I would tell all Canadians to buy Nortel. It’s a bargain!”

Alas, Dion didn’t choose to play stockpicker. And in turn, the ATV newsroom didn’t choose to be impartial.

Predicted winner – Conservative

In 2006 Conservative Jean-Pierre Ouellet came within a 1000 votes of current Liberal MP Jean Claude D’Amours. Ouellet and D’Amours are going to battle it out again but this time Ouellet should come out on top. The NDP have picked up more than 20% the last two elections and even though they’re running a new candidate this time around, they should do at least that well. The Greens will also pick up more votes and all of this is at the expense of the Liberals. The vote split and strong Conservative vote from the Madawaska part of the riding should push Ouellet over the top.

X-Factor – Ouellet might win it but it’s still going to be a close one. Voter apathy may just result in people staying home. If that happens though it will probably cause more harm to D’Amours. Conservatives tend to get out and vote more particularly since it’s their Party in power.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Announcement from the CNW Group, October 8th. Just came up on my Google News Reader a couple of hours ago.

Les Holloway, CAW Atlantic Canada Area Director, announced today that the union is throwing its support behind Green Party leader Elizabeth May, in the Central Nova riding….

“It is critical that we do not re-elect a Harper Conservative government that will continue with its failed right-wing policies which have already cost our country hundreds of thousands of good paying manufacturing jobs,” said Holloway.

Holloway stated, “This ideology that you give everybody their taxes back, cut government spending to do it by deregulating everything and let the market take care of itself has cost us dearly in both life and economic well being, and it has indeed put us on the same course as the United States.”

“Elizabeth May is an extremely intelligent and articulate woman and will do us proud as a Member of Parliament for Central Nova. She cares about what this unbalanced economy is doing to residents of Nova Scotia and elsewhere,” said Holloway….

That’s got to be a valuable endorsement!

Predicted Winner – Conservative

Short of the 1993 obliteration of the Progressive Conservatives, Greg Thompson has held this seat since 1988. The last few elections Thompson has picked up more than 50% of the vote.

X-Factor – None. As sure a bet as Acadie-Bathurst is for the NDP, this is Thompson’s seat.

Crossposted -Spink About It

Predicted winner – Liberal

Liberal Charles Hubbard has held the seat since 1993. He’s considered by many to be a good MP who generally takes a centrist stand on issues. He was against the gun registry due to the rural nature of his riding but the National Gun Registry still was located in his riding along with the jobs that go with it. Talk about having your cake and eating it too.

X-Factor – Disdain, distrust or a lack of understanding of the Liberal’s carbon tax might eat into some of Hubbard’s support but he has a weak competition this time around which should more than make up for any losses.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Say I support a party and want it to govern. I want it to win seats this election. My vote supports it financially, and money is the lifeblood of politics. Under the political financing law, each vote provides the party $1.75/year. So 1 million votes gives my party $7.5 Million dollars over a four year term. That goes a long way to providing my party the resources to grow support in the near term, and over time, hopefully lead to forming a government.

But what if my party’s candidate has no chance of winning in my riding? Do I vote “strategically” (really tactically) to stop my least favorite outcome? This not only deprives my party of money and gives it to my opponents, but if I make this choice in election after election, likely reinforces the perception in the general electorate that my party is a fringe party, with no chance of winning and not worthy of support. This perception becomes self perpetuating, and my party likely never gets elected. Am I prepared to continue working for and supporting such a party?

 Electoral success is the result of conviction and persistence over a number of years. Strategy by definition means a long term perspective.  There are 35% of Canadians who didn’t vote in the last election. Perhaps as my party grows its support and get its message out, these voters may find my party offers them a real choice they want to support. But they won’t have this choice if my party becomes irrelevant. Voting with conviction for my party is the best strategic vote I can make. If I don’t support my party, how can I expect others to do it.

Predicted Winner – NDP

Called the giant killer for beating Liberal Cabinet Minister Doug Young in 1997, NDP MP Yvon Godin has now won four consecutive elections in a province which generally doesn’t support the NDP provincially or federally. He won the last election with 50% of the vote.

X-Factor – None. This one is in the bag for Godin.

Crossposted – Spink About It

I always try to offer up my predictions before an election. My blogging colleague NB Politico does some extensive predictions which fluctuate a bit as time goes by based on a number of factors. Mine are based on what I’ve read, people I’ve talked to throughout the province from various political backgrounds (and sometimes none) and my own experience. These aren’t wish lists of mine. They are simply how I think things will go.

Overall, like many, it’s hard to believe Stephen Harper won’t be Prime Minister after the election. It’s simply a matter of whether he’ll have a minority or majority, making New Brunswick’s ten seats important.

I’ll run through all 10 New Brunswick ridings over the new week. Some of the commentary will be quite short, others longer. There are a few ridings which are fluctuating quite a bit which I’ll hold off until closer to the end to make a call. Your take as always is welcomed.

Crossposted – Spink About It

Congrats to Layton and Harper for proposing more time to discuss the economy. Let’s build on this idea for future election campaigns: have 4 debates, one a week on a major issue. Fifteen minutes is not enough time to explain a policy on the environment, healthcare, etc. but 2 or 3 hours should be. Hold one debate in each of the different regions of the country with one French language debate in Quebec. Our democracy would be better for it.

The polls suggest the current electoral system favors the Conservatives, Liberals and Bloc at the expense of the NDP and Greens. Some argue this discourages people from voting, and propose proportional representation (PR) as the solution. Perhaps it is part of a solution. But a real issue which is never discussed is lack of representation by population (Rep by Pop), which causes some votes to be worth more than others.

If anyone should be discouraged it is residents of Ontario, Alberta and BC. These have 1 MP for every 120,000 in population. All the other provinces are over-represented, from the extreme case of PEI which negotiated a great deal at Confederation (4 MPs for a population of 140,000) to Quebec (1 MP per 103,000). So at this election, the 4 Maritime provinces will elect 32 MPs as BC elects 36, even though BC has double the population. This isn’t fair.

 Electoral reform, combining Rep by Pop with some form of PR (say 1 for every 2% of the vote, or 50) will solve part of the voter turnout issue by making sure every vote matters equally. The greater responsibility falls on politicians. Get voters engaged by proposing and debating ideas instead of launching personal/negative attacks or bickering. Voters are disenchanted with politicians. If the politicians change the way they behave, maybe voters will as well.

The Brian Murphy MP Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe website is temporarily off-line during the 2008 Federal election.

?!?

He’s still the MP though isn’t he?

Crossposted – Spink About It