25 Responses for "CENTRAL NOVA"

1. Nick J Boragina September 14th, 2008 at 3:54 am 1

   I’m not so sure MacKay can win. In fact, the NDP candidate here is a rookie and there is no Liberal. Its him VS May. The NDP could argue “No, its him VS us” but with May being the leader of a “real” party (IE – one that’s in the debates) her counter argument that “No, its him VS me” carries all that much more weight. At minimum this should be a close race. I believe, however, that May will take the riding in a squeaker.

2. liberallatte September 14th, 2008 at 3:43 pm 2

   I’m a big supporter of Elizabeth May and starving for more detailed info on the race from Nova Scotia. How many of the Liberals will flow to May due to the May-Dion deal, how much do you think Louise Lorefice “spoil” the May’s votes, and how much does May’s successful struggle to claim a place at the debates will help her in her own election? Any insight from the locals would be greatly appreciated!

3. Geoff September 14th, 2008 at 6:08 pm 3

   The Conservatives are polling about 4% lower in Atlantic regions compared to last election. MacKay won this riding last time with 40% of the vote. You might subtract 4% from this, and then add whatever you think an incumbent cabinet minister is worth. But that still leaves a large anti-Conservative vote. 75% of Atlantic Canadians do not want a Conservative majority. That leaves an enormous opportunity to May to gather up the anti-Conservative vote. I used to think this riding was a long-shot for May, but now I wouldn’t be so sure.

4. Caradhras September 14th, 2008 at 8:53 pm 4

   The above poster refers to the NDP “spoiling” the Green vote. I think it’s more accurate to ask how much May will spoil the NDP vote. Let’s not forget it was the NDP who drew within 3,300 votes of MacKay last time, with the Liberals running in third and the Greens registering at under 2%.

   If we assume 100% of the Liberal and Green votes from 2006 go to May, and that MacKay keeps all his votes, May would still need to steal roughly 45% of the NDP vote to beat MacKay. Somehow I doubt that will happen.

   Even if half the NDP voters switched to May, but 10% of the Liberal vote went Conservative instead of Green (hardly an unlikely prospect), no dice for May.

   The Liberal vote would have to break quite sharply toward the NDP for the 2nd-place finishers in 2006 to win (the Dippers would need 35% more of the Liberal vote than the Conservatives got), but that is quite a lot more probable than a May victory.

5. Bob Loblaw September 15th, 2008 at 9:20 am 5

   As a current Nova Scotia resident, I would posit that those who are analyzing the situation right now are speculating a little too much.
   40 years of Mackay in this riding should not be overlooked. Somewhat like the McGuinty tradition in Ottawa South, people are often content to go with the status quo. When you have an MP that you get to see regularly on TV, see written about often (for the right reasons) and who is an affable cabinet minister – they are unlikely to lose.
   Some have even said: “This is not Central Nova, this is Peter MacKay’s riding”

   While May will inevitably pick up some hype support as she did in London North-Centre, a fully-funded Green campaign is actually quite a wasteful affair (using tons of pamphlets, signs etc) which fundamentally go against the Green message. In addition, the Greens are going to need NDP voters since they cannot rely on disgruntled Tories (as they did in London North Centre). With the NDP running a strong ticket, the Tories running a strong ticket and the Liberal voters likely to split across the spectrum, I think we’re most likely to see MacKay win by a smaller total percentage, but a similar margin.

6. Sean Kelly September 15th, 2008 at 9:35 am 6

   Without the Liberals in the running here, there’s a small chance that either the NDP or Greens can steal this seat from MacKay.

   The NDP is a safer call at the moment but, as party leader, May gains an instant advantage which may eventually tip the scales in her favour. It will still take a lot of work on May’s part, though, to convince the constituents that she will work for their best interests despite the fact that she has no previous connections to the riding.

   It all comes down to whether the NDP or the Green Party can amass enough momentum to become perceived as the only viable rallying point for the progressive vote in Central Nova.

   Otherwise, the split vote will lead to the status quo … after all, MacKay is rather popular here.

   Should be an exciting race!

7. Chuck September 22nd, 2008 at 2:23 am 7

   Well, I hope all my relatives in the Town of Pictou vote “Green” this time!

8. Max September 22nd, 2008 at 2:09 pm 8

   I hope May win this. She deserves to win

9. Patrick L September 22nd, 2008 at 3:29 pm 9

   I don’t know if the Greens will be able to go from 671 votes and beat the NDP and MacKay and collect 17,000 votes suddenly, even if Elizabeth May gets more attention this time around, tough task.

10. Darcy Lindzon September 24th, 2008 at 4:47 pm 10

    I’d vote for May.

11. janfromthebruce September 29th, 2008 at 8:16 pm 11

    Interesting this is recommending to vote for May here, as the all polls have the NDP in the lead over the Greens for distant 2nd place to McKay. See all the poll results for NS – http://www.voteforenvironment.ca/node/221.
    Not one poll has May ahead of LOREFICE.

12. janfromthebruce September 30th, 2008 at 5:29 pm 12

    Take note of the latest voting poll here in democraticspace.

    2 Central Nova 43 – 47% 31 – 35% 19 – 23% CONSERV.

    May is now running a poor third behind the NDP and with McKay way out front.
    Since she is a big pusher for “strategic voting” to prevent the Conservatives from getting a majority – she now needs to walk the plank or die on her sword (so to speak)
    Walk the talk here – and tell those voters in Central Nova to vote NDP. As you are quoted in the press saying that Greens should consider voting differently if they don’t stand a chance of winning. It looks here that you are way behind – time to do the right thing!

13. Bill Ross October 2nd, 2008 at 6:02 am 13

    I agree with janfromthebruce (12). Every poll I looked at showed the NDP ahead of the Greens. Still, VoteForTheEnviroment and VotePair are recommending Elizabeth May. If May doesn’t take the lead after the debate, she should tell her supporters to vote NDP. Otherwise, there will be another split vote, and another win for MacKay/Harper.

14. Japea October 3rd, 2008 at 5:21 pm 14

    I think everyone is forgetting the growth in support the NDP has seen provincially over the past few elections and the grassroots organization that comes with that. Of the 5 provincial riding that make up Central Nova 2 are held by NDP MLA’s, they lost the 3rd by around 100 votes and they came a strong second in the 4th. The only riding that they came third in was Antigonish, were Lorefice has raised a family of 8 and taught school for over 30 years (makes for a lot of support). As far as the VoteForTheEnviroment poll is concerned they show the greens running 3rd with the CONS and NDP neck and neck. To achieve even this3rd place for the Greens the site says that it believes that 25% of the NDP vote from 2006 will go to the Greens and that the Liberal vote will be split 3% NDP, 8%CONS, 58% for the Greens and the rest will not vote. This is very unrealistic in my view. If we don’t want a Harper majority we need to vote NDP!

15. Kent Buchanan October 4th, 2008 at 7:34 pm 15

    Important for people doing the NDP-Green dance: The vote percentages shown on VoteForTheEnvironment and on this site are projections based on a mathematical model and are not actually polling results within this riding. This site, for instance, looks at national polls with regional breakdowns (like “Atlantic”), and combines this with an analysis of how each area and riding have swung between parties in past elections. Finally, in special cases like this one where a party leader is tossed in the mix, a guess is made about how voters will react, and voila… you have the numbers that people are talking about in posts 11-14.

    SO… what does this mean?

    a) these are projections refined with guesses, not polls, so don’t write Elizabeth off based on these numbers

    b) despite these projections, VoteForTheEnvironment still recommends voting Green in this riding

    c) if you’d like to know actual polling results, call up the May, McKay, or Lorefice office… or a few hundred random phone numbers in the riding, and let us know what you find out

16. Wilf Day October 6th, 2008 at 8:06 pm 16

    As noted above, the NDP has two provincial MLAs here. A report from the campaign says they’re working very hard, with a substantial volunteer base. They had to re-order signs. The two sitting MLAs are working their areas tirelessly. The campaign team has two co-managers, both capable, both from the riding. One has managed winning campaigns before. They feel Louise is solidly in second place at the moment. May has made in-roads among younger voters and at the university, but not nearly what she would need to be a real threat to MacKay. MacKay hasn’t left the riding, unlike the last election, and has been canvassing and mainstreeting hard. He’s not taking it for granted.

17. Kai October 7th, 2008 at 11:30 am 17

    I think that after her very strong debate showing, Elizabeth May is going to get serious consideration by Liberal and NDP voters. I think the NDP will be the third place spoiler, with May coming in second to Peter McKay. Which is a pity, because she’s proved herself capable of effectively developing, costing, and defending good policies, something the more ‘viable’ parties have refused (or failed) to do.

18. Lightning Thunder Boy October 7th, 2008 at 7:21 pm 18

    Elizabeth should do what she knows is right and resign. Environment is not a political issue and she knows it. It’s like having ‘breathing’ as part of your policy. Ultimately all her party is doing is preventing the Liberals from implementing an environmental policy based on reality. In this riding, because another one of her ‘genius’ electoral strategies, there are no Liberals to vote for. She is without a doubt a concerned environmentalist but she is no politician. I think the greenies would rather wear a hair shirt than actually help the environment. Sad.

19. susan October 8th, 2008 at 9:25 am 19

    I am shocked that none of the comments I’ve read address the issue of May’s deal with Dion not to run a liberal candidate in this riding. I’m not a liberal myself, but I find this act to be outrageously undemocratic. Who do these two think they are to unilaterally remove the right of the electorate to vote for a major political party? I find it appalling that one so self-righteous as May is about the green party’s supposed commitment to democracy could pull off such a transparently hypocritical stunt. Voters in this riding shouldn’t put up with arrogant politicians screwing with their democratic rights to manipulate election results. Vote ABM (Anyone But May)!!

20. EG October 9th, 2008 at 7:34 pm 20

    Susan, I’m not a big supporter of this either, but the fault lies equally with Dion. May is not depriving her supporters of a candidate in Central Nova, Dion IS. It was his decision to make this offer to May.

    - Furthermore, the problem is party leaders realize most voters will not support a candidate, unless they think that person will win. It is an irrational and peculiar phenomenon, but one parties take advantage of every election. When was the last time you ordered your meal at a restaurant based on what was the most-ordered item? Do you check sales statistics to determine what car you will buy, rather than what fits your needs?

    But when it comes to elections, voters thinking turns to self-conscious goo and they choose who they think will either win or come closest to defeating the one they least like.
    NO SINGLE VOTE will change the outcome of ANY race, unless there is a tie! Your vote means funding for that party and honour for yourself…that is, if you vote your conscience.

    I would sooner vote CHP and have them come 5th or 6th, than vote Liberal or PC if I don’t particularly support either. If you think about it, my vote means MORE to my party…rather than the votes wasted at the top.

21. Zab October 11th, 2008 at 6:03 am 21

    People seem outraged at the anti-democratic behaviour of Dion in not running a candidate in Central Nova and are calling the Greens a ‘wing’ of the Liberal Party.

    What about Chretien’s decision not to run a candidate when candidate Stephen Harper ran for the Canadian Alliance? Was the Alliance a wing of the Liberal Party?

22. john October 11th, 2008 at 10:23 pm 22

    I find it insulting that the leader of the greens would take public money from the vote allocation and then tell her supporters to vote for another party. If her logic is to be followed then here in central nova people should vote ndp.

23. Joel October 12th, 2008 at 2:18 pm 23

    The only reason everyone is is so up-in-arms about this e-may Dion leaders courtesy deal is that Harper has sensationalized it, which is the same approach that Harper has used to “debate” every other aspect of Liberal or any other party policy. Harper totally sidesteps a rational discussion of the issues, which is insulting average Canadians, and uses fear mongering about what the other parties policies will do. this is ridiculous. we don’t need fear to help us make a good decision! I feal , like many other things in this campaign the controversy is to a large degree rhetoric generated by the Conservative party. If there was a Liberal voter that was angered because they could not vote for thier party that would be a legitimate concern, but that is none of the Conservative’s business, that an internal Liberal Party matter. They have no obligation to run a Liberal candidate in any riding, it is merely an option they can present. The Conservatives have no ground to be aggrieved! Why? Because two of the opposition parties are consolidating the vote for the environment. that’s not unfair at all! That is exactly what the Conservtaives did, in fact, when they formed the Alliance from the central and western Progressive Conservtives and the Reform Party and then again when they merged the Atlantic Progressive Conservatives into the new Conservative Party of Canada.

    As I see it the true deficit of democracy in this election is in the tone that Harper, as the leader of the conservatives has set for the debate of the issues – very American and it really makes me feel like Harper thinks we are stupid and can’t actually make an informed decision that reflects our values.

    Step one for getting more youth invloved in the democratic process would be to have a straight discussion of the issues!

24. VoteForEnvironment or VoteForLiberals? | Terahertz October 13th, 2008 at 8:52 am 24

    [...] the past elections, the NDP have had an increasingly strong presence, while the Liberal support has faded. I [...]

25. Stefan October 13th, 2008 at 9:49 am 25

    Let’s look first at the competence of the candidates. In the candidates’ debates for Central Nova Elizabeth May showed herself to be more knowledgeable than Peter MacKay about Foreign Policy issues (to name one area of many) even though he’s been the minister of Foreign Affairs. She has raised the level of these debates as well as the federal leaders’ debates to one worthy of an audience that actually thinks government has a role in governing the country, and wants it to be done based on an HONEST assessment of the facts. Why not bring her thoughtful appraisal to the House of Commons so that the level of debate in the government can be similarly raised. Not only will her election benefit the whole country, but she will be a vocal representative of her home region.