21 Responses for "Vancouver Centre: fence sitters seek polling numbers"

1. Graham October 7th, 2008 at 9:48 am 1

   The Democraticspace riding projections are:

   Liberal: 31 – 36%
   NDP: 22 – 26%
   Green: 21 – 25%
   Conservative: 16 – 20%

   I believe they reach these projections based on polling numbers. It seems that it’s anyone but Conservatives right now, and I could even see the Greens winning- as long as not too many are scared away by strategic voting.

2. Deanna October 7th, 2008 at 9:59 am 2

   It looks like votefortheenvironment considers this riding a lock for Hedy Fry – they didn’t even add Vancouver Center to their list of contested ridings. And that’s saying something, given that they added Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca, where the Conservatives have long been third place.

   Honestly, I recommend voting for the party/candidate that you want to vote for.

   And then I’d recommend throwing your support behind changing the electoral system to something besides First Past the Post so that we never have to worry about strategic voting again.

   http://www.fairvote.ca

   Open letter to strategic voters and vote swappers

3. Sheri October 7th, 2008 at 11:34 am 3

   I agree with Johns opening comments…

   I too am very concerned with letting the Conservatives in by not voting for Hedy – but I also dont think she has done enough in the riding in recent years… or been visibly courting votes this time around (I’ve been getting calls from the other parties and have seen people on the streets with signs for weeks but nothing from the liberals until 2 days ago); she seems to be taking for granted that people will keep voting for her no matter what.

   I voted strategically last time for the Liberals… but would like to vote with my heart this time around … and pray this doesnt split the vote and let the conservatives come through on top…

   If anyone has any other polls for the riding in the next couple of days, this may change my mind… so all comments welcomed

4. Whiskey Echo (N. Van, unaffiliated Canadian nationalist) October 7th, 2008 at 1:26 pm 4

   It’s the toughest call of any riding in BC. I’d love to see a primary source on those poll numbers, but yeah, Fray is a tough one to beat. Up till now I have not seen any Mayencourt numbers, but if he really is 4th, then that means the vote probably won;t go strategic. Anything over 30% and I think the Myers and Carr numbers might drop on election day.

5. Whiskey Echo (N. Van, unaffiliated Canadian nationalist) October 7th, 2008 at 1:27 pm 5

   Sorry, I meant if it was more than 25%, in other words putting him roughly 2nd.

6. Diana October 7th, 2008 at 3:06 pm 6

   Actually, voteforenvironment is now calling this riding as an even contest between Hedy Fry and Michael Byers, with Mayencourt a distant third. And so they’re recommending voting with your heart in this one.

   Which is what I’ve always done in the past – I’m a recent and reluctant convert to the idea of strategic voting. But I think the urgency of action on climate change has changed the game. So I’m encouraging everyone I know to vote strategically this time out. But I’m also urging them to get involved in electoral reform, and make a donation to the party they would have voted for, to make up for the money they’ll lose from not getting the vote.

7. Paul B October 7th, 2008 at 3:38 pm 7

   Isnt it amazing how the Liberals have ditched the decidely unpopular Green Shift from being mentioned. Now who has the hidden agenda? A vote for the Liberals will mean major tax increases that Canadians will face in uncertain times.

8. Jim October 7th, 2008 at 4:46 pm 8

   The man was simply asking for current polling numbers. Not a lecture on electoral reform. Reform is needed clearly but we should look a the reality we face in Canada right now…

   And, the conservatives are just the guys to undertake the warm and fuzzy process of electoral reform??? They will probably tell you that it is too costly and besides they probably are pretty happy with a system that gives them a governing mandate while 60% or more of voters preferred anyone but them to govern.

   We are in a full on crisis, wherein electoral reform will be the least of our problems with a renewed conservative mandate.

   No, we might be far better to consider taking our chances with strategic voting.

9. Jack Yellin October 7th, 2008 at 6:24 pm 9

   Polling numbers for ridings will have a very high margin of error, so I wouldn’t put much stock in them. It will be a tough call. There will be vote splitting and you know that the ABC vote will split. Just hope it is not enough to elect the Conservative!

10. John P Egan (Independent) October 7th, 2008 at 8:08 pm 10

    The numbers on the votefortheenvironment site strike me as manufactured/extrapolated, based on provincial polling when compared to the 2006 result. Because no one is polling 20,000+ people in any one riding, as their numbers reflect. Ditto Democratic Space.

11. macadavy October 7th, 2008 at 11:56 pm 11

    Conservative Lorne Mayencourt has no chance of winning this riding: nil, zilch! However, some folks seem to be allowing themselves to be stampeded by fear (that he might be elected) into supporting Hedy Fry yet again just to block him. Indeed, given the lack of leafleting and mainstreeting by the Liberals it would not surprise me in the least if this fear was being promoted by them (behind the scenes) as the main thrust of their strategy to defeat New Democrat Michael Byers – a stellar candidate if ever we’ve had one! A vote for him will not elect la Lorne, it will finally retire an MP who has spent most of the last fifteen years on the backbenches even when her party was in power, and the last two years propping up Harper’s minority neocon regime.
    A vote for the Greens, as nice as they may be, is a wasted vote unless and until we have proportional representation of some kind.
    Open your eyes folks, we’re going to need a strong contingent of New Democrats in Ottawa in the hard times a comin’ and Michael Byers is a stand up guy if ever there was one! Go read his remarkable book ‘Intent For a Nation: What is Canada For?’ and you will renew your optimism and faith in how great this country of ours could be if we lived up to our potential, a potential that only the New Democrats can help us realize, in my opinion. See y’all at the polls!

12. Ainsley Rodgers October 8th, 2008 at 6:58 am 12

    I’m sorry but while Michael Byers is an incredibly smart and well educated man he’s been living in the world of academia. While I know his heart is in the right place Mr Byers has made sweeping statements and silly accusations throughout the election, I’m sure he realizes that much of what Jack Layton proposes will, in fact, have many Canadians lose their jobs, in a recession you don’t exactly want that to happen.

    Hedy has worked hard for this riding and she has done good work. Whats more she is a strong voice in the party and is in no way a back bencher.

    I’m sorry but during an economic downswing do you really want to vote for someone who has no experience and a temper that can get them into trouble?

13. Whiskey Echo (N. Van, unaffiliated Canadian nationalist) October 8th, 2008 at 1:40 pm 13

    I don’t think Byers did himself any favours by suggesting the tar sand be shut down entirely. Vancouver Centre is not “oil uber alles” Alberta, but it does include Howe Street, if you know what I mean. As far as the Greens being a “wasted vote”, I don’t see how it’s any more true than the NDP vote being a wasted vote.

    I’m not a Hedy Fry fan, frankly I don’t think much of her, but any call not to split the anti-Harper vote applies equally to the NDP there as it does the Greens, and I think Voteforenvironment’s call may only highlight how Layton and Harper have been on the same side of the Carbon Tax issue. (Remember, a lot of environmental voters gave up on the NDP permanently thanks to Glen Clark. They’re not likely to make the NDP their 2nd choice now.)

    The “NDP over Liberals to stop Harper” in BC storyline applies mainly to rural BC; much has been made of it by the NDP (countered by the Liberals of course), but I still see the NDP’s anti-Liberal tactic in the Vancouver core as flawed and benefitting only Harper. In Richmond and North Van and West Van, the NDP hasn’t got a prayer. In Vancouver Centre, or Quadra it works only if Liberal support totally dies out, when in fact it is evidently rebounding. The NDP should be aiming at the Conservative-NDP contests (rural mainly), because there the strategic voting effects benefit them most.

    As far as Mayencourt goes, I really do hope he has no chance of coming up the middle, but I still don;t discount it. I don’t like his record in civic politics or provincially. But this is perhaps the only true 4-way race in the country where any of them have potential to get in.

    Anyways, that’s how I see it.

    As far as voting reforms, 100% support here. When the provincial election comes in early 2009, there will be another BC-STV referendum, so let’s support that. It’s too late for this federal election, but if BC can change systems, it can lead the rest of Canada by example when it comes to ditching First-Past-The-Post.

14. Brenton October 9th, 2008 at 12:27 am 14

    “Whats more she is a strong voice in the party and is in no way a back bencher.”

    Opposition critic for Sport Canada. Former Secretary of State for Multiculturalism and Status of Women (but dropped after a couple of high profile gaffes), former Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, former Minister of Human Resources and Skills Development. Not exactly a stellar resume, but not lightweight either. Has she brought forth any significant legislation?

    I would agree that Mayencourt won’t win, but it will be closer than some might think. He has name recognition and was the sitting MLA for the BC Liberals. Byers can win this, but I would put money (not much) on Fry with the Liberal resurgence in the past few days (though I haven’t paid attention to their numbers in BC specifically.

15. Jeff Foley October 9th, 2008 at 4:48 am 15

    I agree with Ainsley’s comment about Byers — a few friends of mine saw him at the Arts debate at the Stanley and found him to be arrogant, pompous and heavy on the rhetoric.

    Mayencourt is a definite concern to come up the middle in this riding — in fact I think ironically the conservatives will win a lot of ridings through the split left vote just like the liberals did in 2000 — despite thier poll numbers crashing.

    Hedy Fry has been good to this riding and deserves to win again. There are more reasons than strategic voting that she keeps getting returned here and I can’t see any
    reasons why she shouldn’t.

    Canada should adopt the system they have in Australia — people vote for their first choice and then direct preferences to whom they would vote for next if their person gets knocked off the ballot (kind of like the leadership convention without all the fanfare). That way, the winner gets elected with more than 50% of the vote.

16. macadavy October 10th, 2008 at 10:00 am 16

    I’ll agree with Jeff Foley re: Australian style voting. We might also consider adopting their mandatory voting requirement: you vote or pay a A$50 fine for not voting!

17. King of Kensington October 11th, 2008 at 11:30 am 17

    I think the DS numbers for the NDP are too low. It seems to be extrapolating from the 2006 result when the “ring thing” depressed the NDP vote. Remember that the much more low-profile Kennedy Stewart took 32% in 2004.

18. Paul B October 11th, 2008 at 1:45 pm 18

    Can anyone actually tell me what Fry has accomplished in Vancouver Centre? She attends Gay Pride and then disappears for a year – some people are so fickle!

19. Manesso October 11th, 2008 at 2:26 pm 19

    The polling data for “voteforenvironment” and “Democratic space” are not actual polling numbers from the ridings. They are an amalgomation of regional voting movements and past voting trends for each individual ridings. People constantly seem to get this confused.

    In a nutshell, it’s a combination of historical voting preferences and a parties general momentum.

    I personally believe this riding will be a lot closer than expected. It will all come down to whether the “Greens” draw more support from the Grits or the Dippers. Any party could win this. My vote is for the NDP but I worry the Conservatives could sneak/squeak in. I predict all 4 major paries will have more than 20% and the one with 25% wins it..

20. macadavy October 12th, 2008 at 9:41 am 20

    Thanks, manesso, for the clarification – I think a lot of people do get confused. Unfortunately, it seems a lot of people also use it as the basis for voting decisions – which is dangerous.
    My vote’s for Michael Byers and the New Democrats, too, but its going to be very, very close. I fear the Greenies are going to be the spoilers that re-elect the ‘Lady in Red’ yet again in this election, Carr can’t win.
    Voter turnout will be critical, the NDP traditionally gets its vote out better than any of the others; New Democrats tend to take their civic duty seriously and make the effort to vote.

21. Manesso October 12th, 2008 at 4:56 pm 21

    If the Conservatives can take enough of the Liberal vote the NDP has a small chance. I wasn’t impressed with the low profile we had this election though.

    My Prediction:(I tend to be too optimistic on the NDP)
    Con 129
    Libs 89
    Bloc 50
    NDP 39
    Ind 1