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Tories “polling scared” in Edmonton-Strathcona?

Author: Jennie Dailey-O'Cain (NDP)

5 Oct

Just in case the race in Edmonton-Strathcona wasn’t quite exciting enough for you already, get a load of this new wrinkle: “Tories polling scared” in the “Liberals for Linda” blog.

A local firm called Bannister Research has begun polling in Strathcona. I was called. The questions were:

1. How likely am I to vote
2. Which party am I going to vote for (no list provided)
3. Which candidate in Edmonton Strathcona am I going to vote for (no list provided)
4. What do I think is the most important issue

I don’t think that the NDP or the Liberals are likely to be commissioning any polling. The firm is the very same that in 2004 released a poll on the Mayoralty race that showed former Mayor Bill Smith in the lead.

Of course, Stephen Mandel went on to win, and it was later revealed that the Bannister poll was commissioned by Smith’s campaign. A bit dodgey wouldn’t you say?

This poll could only have been commissioned by the Conservatives. I can only assume that they know that they are in trouble.

It’s a fascinating set of accusations: one, the notion the Tories have commissioned a poll in Edmonton-Strathcona, and two, that they hired a firm that might just be willing to play dirty pool with the numbers.Â Whether true or not, I have to say, it’s starting to feel a bit like a bad Hollywood film out here.Â And there’s even some theft involved, since Mr. Liberal for Linda nicked my graphic without permission.

Was anybody else in Edmonton-Strathcona polled?

Filed under: Alberta, Battleground Ridings, Conservative, Edmonton, Jennie Dailey-O'Cain (NDP), Local Campaigns, NDP, Polling

5 Responses for "Tories “polling scared” in Edmonton-Strathcona?"

Chrystal Ocean (Green) October 5th, 2008 at 1:04 pm 1
I see nothing wrong with those questions, Jennie, including the omission of party and candidate lists. Nik Nanos, the most respected pollster in the business, doesn’t use lists. He thinks that these can bias voters, even when names are randomized which all reputable pollsters do.

So on those two points, I must say there’s nothing off about that poll, regardless of who paid for it.
Jennie Dailey-O'Cain (NDP) October 5th, 2008 at 1:55 pm 2
Chrystal,

I wasn’t suggesting there was anything wrong with the questions. I was simply pointing at someone else’s accusation that a) the fact that they’re polling in the first place suggests that they’re scared, and b) their choice of firm is of one that’s been wildly and…ooh, intrigue…maybe even maliciously wrong in the past.

The “b” part seems like a bit of a stretch, admittedly. At least in the absence of an actual poll’s results showing enough of a disappointing result for the NDP that progressives stop feeling like they can win and stop working so hard for it.
southernontarioan October 5th, 2008 at 5:04 pm 3
Wait, so someone hiring a polling company *must* be the Tories? Sorry if I find that accusation amusing.

First of all, maybe the NDP hired one to find out if they should really be focusing on that riding more? Or if it is out of reach.

Second of all, why would the Tories want BAD information from a poll?
Saskboy (Green) October 5th, 2008 at 5:13 pm 4
I was just polled by Conservatives in this manner:
http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/10/no-you-cannot/
Jennie Dailey-O'Cain (NDP) October 6th, 2008 at 4:01 am 5
southernontarian,

I think the reason that blog tapped the Tories is this: none of the local campaigns is at all likely to have hired a polling firm (local campaigns are only allowed to spend something like $80,000, and that doesn’t leave enough room in the budget for polling), so one of the national parties must have done it. And the NDP doesn’t exactly have money to burn on single-riding polling, y’know?

I’m not sure how much credence to give any of the rest of it, but that part I buy.

Saskboy,

Good for you for calling them on not coming to the forums!

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