Predicted winner – Conservative

Tobique-Mactaquac stretches from outside the city of Fredericton to just north of the bilingual Town of Grand Falls. Conservative MP Mike Allen won this seat in the 2006 election by a mere 250 or so votes over Liberal Andy Savoy. Savoy himself had first taken the seat from the Progressive Conservatives in 2000 by a mere 150 votes although he increased his vote considerably in 2004 thanks in part to a local riding controversy over who would carry the Conservative banner in the riding.

This time Savoy isn’t running in favour of Stanley teacher Sally McGrath who is largely an unknown in much of the riding. Allen has had two and a half years to establish his name throughout the vast riding (not to mention this being his fourth election). Expect him to win this riding and increase his vote.

X-Factor – The NDP and Greens are relatively weak in this riding, more so than in other N.B. ridings. This is a riding where strategic voting if it were utilized heavily could give the Liberals the seat.

Crossposted – Spink About It