Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar (SRB) is the best chance for a pick-up by the New Democrats in Saskatchewan.

The incumbent, Carol Skelton, who enjoyed a good deal of personal popularity (and was at pains to associate herself with the Conservative brand in any of her communications) is not running again. In her place, the Conservatives nominated Kelly Block, one of the higher-ups of the ruling Saskatchewan Party (i.e. Conservative Party), former rural town mayor, and a member of several health boards. She was nominated this past summer by the party.

Nettie Wiebe was re-nominated in January 2007 to represent the New Democratic Party for a second time, she ran and lost to Skelton in 2006. A farmer, professor, and activist, Nettie has been hard at work in the riding for the past 3.5 years building both the NDP brand and her name. In particular, her and her team gave much focus to the rural portion of the riding over the past 1.5 years leading up to the election.

Roy Bluehorn was the last minute nominee for the Liberal Party and is a young aboriginal policy analyst with ties to the urban portion of the riding. There are also candidates running under the Green, Christian Hertiage Party (vote against immorality!), and the Libertarian Party.

The battle in this election will be between Nettie Wiebe and Kelly Block, with both camps running high resource campaigns. The lack of an incumbent this time around would seem to give the name recognition to Nettie Wiebe over Kelly Block.

A quick look at the 2006 results broken down between the urban and rural portion of the riding gives an idea of where the main contenders stand heading towards October 14th:

	Rural	Saskatoon
Total Voters	11446	36752
Vote Total	7961	21392
Turnout	69.6	58.2
	-
	Total Votes
	Rural	Saskatoon
Green	153	585
C.H.	41	217
Lib	528	3048
Con	5140	8191
NDP	2125	9287
	-
	% Vote
	Rural	Saskatoon
Green	1.9	2.7
C.H.	0.5	1.0
Lib	6.6	14.2
Con	64.6	38.3
NDP	26.7	43.4

The difference between Skelton and Wiebe in 2006 was 1919 votes. While Skelton far and away carried the rural vote (64.6 to 26.7%), the rural vote only accounted for approximately 27% of total votes cast. However, the Conservative were able to hold there own in the city, and along with a just-strong-enough showing from the Liberals, were able to hold their ground in the urban portions. However, what really hurt the NDP in 2006 were some extremely low voter turn numbers in the urban portion. On average 58% of urban voters cast a ballot, while nearly 70% of rural voters showed up on election day. What the presented data does not show are the numerous urban polls where the NDP took > 50% of the popular vote (to 30% for the Cons) but only saw 40-45% voter turnout (not including the advance polls). In these polls the NDP was out-pacing the Conservatives by 100 to 300 votes. When added across 50+ polling stations, 1919 votes becomes a very small number.

A few on-the-ground observations of the campaign so far:

- The Liberals are nearly non-existent in the riding as our the Greens

- In the core neighbourhoods (Caswell, Hudson Bay Park, Westmount, Riversdale, etc…) for every Con sign there are between 4-7 NDP signs on lawns (thankfully no sign wars have erupted on main boulevards), I’ve seen 1 sign for the Liberals, Greens, and Christian Heritage Party.

- Both Kelly Block’s and Nettie Wiebe’s campaign offices are busy throughout the day with a good deal of volunteers in each

- Media exposure has been good for both, though Nettie seems to be getting more than Kelly as she is the goto person in Saskatchewan for the NDP

- Both candidates have excellent websites with all the bells and whistles

So what does this mean for the NDP and Conservatives on October 14th?

Well, first I will lay out a few assumptions (feel free to debate their merits), based on what I have seen on the ground as this race has progressed (I live in the riding):

- The Liberal vote will decline from 2006, a less visible candidate and a better awareness by voters that Nettie is the only choice to block a Conservative win again

- The Green Party is non-existent (in 2006 they actually saw a decrease in their vote from 2004) both in the riding and in the province and at best could increase their 2006 total (2.6%) by 1%

- The Conservatives will lose some ground from 2006 as they are without an incumbent and are now running on their record

- The NDP gains (19-20% nationally) will hold through to Election Day

Taking all of that into account I would suggest that a 3-4% increase in the NDP rural vote is not out of question and might be an underestimation. Additionally, a 5% swing in the urban portion is also very likely with the Liberals dropping from their 14% in 2006 to about 10% and the Conservatives dropping a 2-3% as well.

Just a 7% swing towards the NDP within the urban portion of the riding would hand Nettie the win, or a 3% increase in the rural and a 5% increase in the urban.

Though I am not willing to pick a winner in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar at this time, I think the numbers indicate for themselves that this will be an extremely close race to watch on Election night and that there is a very good chance that the New Democrats will carry the day. However, they will have to do a better job at pulling the urban voters out to the polls. WIthout doing this the Conservatives are likely to sneak by once again.

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Cross-posted on my blog (www.seaninsaskatchewan.wordpress.com)