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Not daring to make a prediction on Edmonton-Strathcona

Author: Jennie Dailey-O'Cain (NDP)

13 Oct

Below is my final chart of how the democraticSPACE projected vote totals in Edmonton-Strathcona have changed over time (between September 25th and October 12th). The graph displays averages of democraticSPACE’s projected ranges. According to these averages, the Conservatives are currently projected as one point ahead of the NDP, but the democraticSPACE projection model doesn’t take potential strategic voting into account.

democraticSPACE projections for Edmonton-Strathcona

I’m glad I’m not in the position–as the real masterminds behind democraticSPACE are–of having to make a prediction about this race. It’s simply not possible this time. I admit to having access to a bit more data than democraticSPACE has, but even so, I wouldn’t hazard a guess. I will say that I can foresee anything from a rather more marginal win than usual for Conservative candidate Rahim Jaffer (if the progressive strategic vote for NDP candidate Linda Duncan turns out to be weak or non-existent) to a comfortable win for Duncan (if the Liberal vote collapses into the single digits). Both of those scenarios are possible. More likely than either one, though, is one of the various nail-biter scenarios in between. At this point it all comes down to three factors: 1) how well the Tories are able to get out their vote, 2) how well the NDP is able to get out its vote, and the most important and yet least controllable factor: 3) just how strong the Anybody But the Conservatives movement is in the riding–i.e., how willing the Liberal and Green voters are to switch their votes to oust a Tory.

It’s already been said by the Ottawa Citizen, the CBC, the Calgary Herald, and the National Post, but to say that this is a riding to watch is a massive understatement. And for all those denizens of the riding who are sick of your vote not counting, well, just consider this election a rare gift. Because oh boy does it count this time.

Further reading:
Edmonton-Strathcona: a snapshot
Winners and losers in Edmonton-Strathcona
Edmonton-Strathcona: the Conservatives
Edmonton-Strathcona: the New Democrats
Edmonton-Strathcona: the Liberals
Edmonton-Strathcona: the Greens

Filed under: Alberta, Battleground Ridings, Conservative, Edmonton, Jennie Dailey-O'Cain (NDP), Liberal, Local Campaigns, NDP, Voter Decision Making

2 Responses for "Not daring to make a prediction on Edmonton-Strathcona"

Steve October 13th, 2008 at 8:24 am 1
The only possible prediction is that the result is unpredictable.
Ian October 14th, 2008 at 8:31 am 2
http://www.canada.com/edmontonjournal/news/story.html?id=4a986a31-ca36-4a2e-8fbf-a27b8d8e0260&k=23627

“Psychic Nadia” Mitchell predicts: “Today will be a big day for Edmonton-Strathcona. Many will wake up with new clarity, sure of who to vote for after a “blindfold of confusion” has been lifted. “There’s not much that voters should be worried about…. People control their own lives and their own destinies and their own desires.”

Mitchell’s forecast: “It is showing me a male figure…. I would look forward to a male kind of taking the lead.”"

Although most of her predictions seemed like guesses based on the polls, but less scientific that what they’ve been predicting here.

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