14 October 2008
10 Oct
I went to North Vancouver’s all candidates meeting on Wednesday night and was left with a few impressions (side note: there’s a prediction on the winner of this – and several other – ridings at the end).
 1. Compared to the 2006 debate at the same venue, the crowd was incredibly respectful. Despite being marginally pro-Saxton (though from my vantage point I may not have been able to gauge audience reaction entirely accurately), there was only one moment of heckling, which was over before the debate was 5 minutes old.
2. Don Bell knows what plays and what doesn’t in the riding. Bell is an old pro, probably running his last campaign, who is putting up a heck of a fight in a right leaning riding. He can come off as awkward from time to time double checking his policy notes and stumbling over his words. However, the answers he does provide (including the best joke of the night) show an inherent knowledge of North Vancouver’s electorate. Don Bell knows North Vancouver and North Vancouver knows Don Bell.
3. All the subtleties that Don Bell knows about North Vancouver, Andrew Saxton doesn’t. He’s a new comer, it shows and North Vancouver doesn’t like newcomers – just ask Warren Kinsella. He was awkward, caught in contradictions once or twice and really fell off the wagon towards the end of the night as his jokes fell flat and his short, pointed answers, turned into meandering forays into a party platform he wasn’t entirely familiar with and a defensive answer about missing debates and failing to fill out questionnaires. Saxton has the potential to do well. He may win this election, but in a few more years he’ll be a much better candidate with a much better understanding of North Vancouver’s fussy electorate. Let’s hope that the local Conservatives don’t eat their own and give Mr. Saxton a second chance should he require one.
4. Jim Stephenson was not nearly as good as he was in 2006, but was still a pleasure to watch. A great understanding of his party’s platform and a very engaging style proved him to be the most likable candidate on stage. Perhaps resigned to a third place finish, the most interesting moments of the night were the little bones he kept throwing the Liberals.
5. I’m looking very much forward to the NDP candidates next film – he fought the good fight. He had nothing to lose and it showed, still good for him to show up. In 2006 the NDP candidate missed this debate because she was recovering from exhaustion in hospital. The Libertarian candidate, well, she sure didn’t hold back (and good on the audience for respecting her for that).
 6. This debate reminded me of why Don Bell won this riding in 2004 and 2006, and why he’s going to be the victor on October 14th, that’s right I’m calling it. Don Bell, North Vancouver – Liberal HOLD, but not by much.
7. While I’m here, I’ll also make a few more calls: West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast -STSC, oh the anticipation….John Weston, Conservative PICKUP by a country mile, but not a majority. Vancouver Centre…Hedy Fry Liberal HOLD, with a reasonable plurality – 2-4th may be seperated by no more than a point.
 If anything comes up in the next few days I’ll be back…

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4 Responses for "North Vancouver"
“West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast -STSC, oh the anticipation….John Weston, Conservative PICKUP”
You will be forgiven for getting this one wrong because you don’t live here.
John Weston’s support started strong and was probably tracking his partys’ support. But his incredible weak performances in the debates has cost him a lot. I see his soft support going to the Greens and Libs.
Those that read tier news will go the Greens as being closest to Progressive Conservative, and those that watch their news on TV and think the Greens are further left then Liberal, will go Liberal.
I went to the AC meeting on Thursday night (Parkgate), so here’s my report.
First of all the crowd. It was relatively small, I’d say maybe 60 people or so. You copuld tell by the number of blue buttons that Sexton had probably brought his whole campaign team to stack things a bit. AS with most AC forums, the crowd was mostly senior citizens. Instead of citizens putting questions directly, they were written on cards and the moderator just chose some. This disapointed me, because I had some really sharp questions which never got asked.
Don Bell (Liberal) did indeed know his stuff, and had to spend quite some time refuting rumours and such that Sexton had opbviously been spreading around in previous meetings. Mainly he defended Liberal economic plans, talked about the Green Shift and environmental issues quite a bit. Bell made a point that I also would have expected to hear more from the Greens to jump on more (yet they didn’t), namely that a Cap and Trade system for reducing C02 emissions would be too slow, too weak, and even more bureaucratic. One thing Bell did point out that was a few times he had been not in line with his party, such as over issues like mandatory sentencing guidelines. That probably went over well, since here in North Van there is a sort of “independent” streak unlike City of Vancouver where party politics are the norm even municipally.
Andrew Sexton (Conservative) was very slick, he has a real “salesman” aura around him. He spoke well, I suppose, and I get the feeling he’s either not in agreement with Harper’s party core on some things, or else does a good job of seeming more concerned on some issues (like environment) than he is. Probably the latter, since his style of attacks on Bell are clearly straight from the Conservative playbook, phrase for phrase. He accused Bell of having done nothing for North Van, and of being absent from voting a lot. (Mind you Bell did counter with essentially a long list of commitees and panels he’s on, and different figures of his own.) One thing Sexton kept going back to over and over was Ujjal Dosanjh and Bob Rae – painting the federal Liberals with a sort of NDP brush, I guess, trying to invoke the spectre of Glen Clark maybe. Bit it got a bit worn after hearing it for like the 3rd or 4th time.
Jim Stephenson (Green) did his best, he brought the environment into most issues one way or another. He did have some recurring microphone problems, so I don’t know if he kept the audience at all times. But he acquitted himself well on the economic side, remniding people of his professional background, and he didn’t make any outlandish statements. On the whole it was a respectable performance but quiet compared to the Liberal-Conservative battle, or the NDP’s noisiness.
Michael Charrois (NDP) was the most animated candidate by far. You can tell he’s an actor by his bombastic style. However, sometimes he seemed over-promotional, or like he was repeating various Laytonisms. He did better when he was improv-ing it with his own words. He did get very emotional about the Insite issue, though on that issue even Sexton didn’t really come down in the “shut it down side”. One thing he kept going back to over and over was those times the Liberals (Bell included) had abstained in the House of Commons, trying to embarass Bell or suggest the Liberals tactly supported the Conservatives. His best line was about the Conservatives and how Tunya Audain (Libertarian) was what the Conservatives were really about if only they had the guts to say so.
Tunya Audain (Libertarian) came off as someone very uncompromising on her principles. Hers was the least nuanced and most direct set of answers and attitudes. Housing issues? No federal subsidies, not feds problem. Economic turmoil? Leave business alone, let the market handle it by self-correcting. Social programs? Eliminate. Afghanistan? No foreign interventions or government foreign aid, period. Student aid? Zero – make ‘em work for it all, and in fact most people are too “average” to deserve to go to university anyways. I suppose the ultra-right-wing economics she espoused would have been batter balanced if there were more questions on the social values side. She did say that a vote for her party was more of a message than any real chance at governing.
Proportional representation:
- Stephenson said “yes” to that or perhaps a runoff system.
- Audain was kind of on the fence about it, mildly “yes”, but focusing more on things like voter recall and referendum ideas.
- Bell was in the “maybe” column – not against it, more like in favour of studying the various PR systems, and perhaps also Senate reform. Nothing specific, basically.
- Sexton said whatever would give the West more representation, and if PR would do that, good. (Which is odd logic.) I would say that was for “cheap pops”, get that whole “western alienation” flag flying, but not committing to anything specific.
- Charrois was most direct, he just said “yes” to PR.
Overall, I’d say it this AC meeting changed little or nothing in the audience. Many seemed to already have chosen before entering. Nothing spectacular or outrageous happenned. Bell defended his record well well, and put forward the case for the Liberals economically and envoironmentally; Sexton is clearly the chief opponent, clearly a well-trained Harperite – this meeting did not give an indication of who would ultimately win. The people who stayed quiet may carry more weight than those who were noisy and clapping. North Vancouver is a hard place to get a reading on – Don Bell may win, largely on his roots and reputation.
I totally agree with your assessments, but I’d like to add that in Vancouver-Centre, Carr is a paper tiger. She’ll get 15% of the vote and be a (relatively) distant fourth.
So at the last update, North Vancouver’s “too close to call”.
This should be a message to the NDP and Greens that stretegic votes will matter, will cost the Conservatives a victory if they happen. I do feel bad for them, they ran a spirited campaign, but I think now it’s time to face the reality that just a few votes will make the difference. (I’m going strategic myself – yuck! A necessary evil.)
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