18 Responses for "NDP as the official opposition?"

1. Michael October 3rd, 2008 at 2:34 pm 1

   From what I read, Saskatoon Rosetown Biggar is a more likely NDP pickup than Palliser. There is a remote chance in Regina Qu’Appelle too, I guess.
   But you are right, even with popular vote over 20 % (and they may yet slip) , it seems hard to believe they can get close to their historic high of 42 seats, because I don’t think they can get anywhere close to the number of seats in BC that they did in 1988.
   I hope they do well, but I see 40 seats as an absolute upper limit.

2. Ryan October 3rd, 2008 at 2:36 pm 2

   Hull-Aylmer and more so Gatineau aren’t as slim as you may think. Media is giving Gatineau to the NDP. And there is still alot of time left in the campaign and a couple points movement in the right places can do a lot.

3. Scott October 3rd, 2008 at 2:37 pm 3

   There are 3 more seats the NDP could take in Nova Scotia. In Sydney-Victoria and Central Nova the party has serious “up through the middle” potential.

   Mark Eyking, the Liberal incumbent is faced with tough competition from Tory Kristen Rudderham. The NDP has a strong base in that riding, if she pulls enough from Eyking they could take it.

   Elizabeth May’s success in Central Nova is far from certain, the NDP came close federally in 2004 and 2006 with two strong campaigns. There are two sitting NDP MLAs from the more conservative part of the riding who’s machines are in high gear for this election. Liberals in that riding are wearing buttons that say “Liberals for Lorifice”

   South Shore-St. Margarets is also on the table with a strong repeat candidate.

   Halifax West and Dartmouth-Cole Harbour are very possible. Halifax, Sackville-Eastern Shore are certain NDP wins.

4. Adam Sobolak October 3rd, 2008 at 3:40 pm 4

   A couple of things: while SJS-MP isn’t out of the question, presently the more likely Newf riding is St John’s North (thanks to Jack Harris’s candidacy); and Sask observers tend to place Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar higher in the likely-pickup category than Palliser…

5. Devon Paul October 3rd, 2008 at 6:26 pm 5

   I’d agree Scott that from out here in Nova Scotia, South Shore – St. Margaret’s in Nova Scotia is a very possible pick-up for the NDP too. However, Dartmouth – Cole Harbour and Halifax West are both looking rather unlikely at the moment (and I say this as an NDP partisan).

   In Ontario, don’t forget the two Windsor seats as well as London – Fanshawe.

6. Éric Grenier (Bloc Québécois) October 3rd, 2008 at 7:04 pm 6

   A poll done in Gatineau gave the Bloc a 10-point lead over the Conservatives, an 11-point lead over the NDP.

7. Louise Tremblay Matchett October 3rd, 2008 at 7:37 pm 7

   So what is the big problem if the NDP becomes the opposition? This post sounds as if it is something to be so terrified about! Why? What fear?

8. Mark October 3rd, 2008 at 7:59 pm 8

   The only gain the NDP could possibly make at this stage in Atlantic Canada will be St. John’s East (or North… they keep changing the damn name…), and not St. John’s South Mt. Pearl. Surely that’s the riding you meant to mention in your post. Jack Harris appears to have a substantial lead.

   Halifax West? Sydney Victoria? Clearly you got that from sympathetic sources on Pot TV.

   The NDP have yet to meet their 2006 popular vote level in any consistent polls, so they’re as likely to lose seats as gain any. That being said, I think it is realistic for the NDP to gain seats in Saskatchewan and BC. They’ll gain one in Newfoundland, and lose at least two to the Liberals in Toronto, and may lose a couple to the Tories elsewhere. They have no hope of picking up seats in Quebec, although they will certainly improve their popular vote..

   So let’s say Jack gains a total of 5 new seats. He’ll call it a great victory, and at that rate, gaining five seats per election, the NDP will form a minority government somewhere around the year 2098.

9. Adrena Lynn October 3rd, 2008 at 8:49 pm 9

   I think you meant the NDP could potentially take St. John’s East, where former provincial NDP leader Jack Harris is running.

10. Tommy Z October 3rd, 2008 at 10:24 pm 10

    Some unexpected things “may” happen. A lot of people (including me) have never really voted NDP because we don’t believe they will win. But with their recent gains, those people may just go for the NDP.

    I am not sure if this would be a likely scenario, but it is possible. But even then, I don’t think they would get into the main opposition.

11. Nick J Boragina October 4th, 2008 at 12:53 am 11

    At current polling levels for the NDP (20%) no. If they make it to 25%, yes. They will do it by winning ridings in BC and Ontario. The problem, howerver, is that if the Bloc remains at their current strength, a 50 seat NDP might not be enough.

12. Jennie Dailey-O'Cain (NDP) October 4th, 2008 at 1:23 am 12

    James Bow (hardly a New Democrat) had a response to this. In a nutshell: it makes no sense to look at the ridings that are currently in play, say that there aren’t enough of them for the NDP to form the official opposition (or government) and then dismiss the idea as impossible. This scenario rides on the NDP going up a bunch more points in the polls, which would put a bunch more ridings in play that are not currently.

    Unlikely at this point in the campaign? You bet. Impossible? No way–just look at Mr. Bow’s example from Ontario.

13. Dan Walmsely October 4th, 2008 at 4:20 am 13

    One can describe the chances of the New Democrats forming the official opposition in two ways, fat and slim.

    The chances appear higher than they ever have before during an election campaign, that’s for sure. It seems that historically, no matter how high they climb in polls before, or during a campaign they always fall back to the 17% on election night range unless Audrey McLaughlin’s leading.

    They have certainly expanded their appeal, evidenced through their by election win in Quebec.

    The last time an NDP chief, Ed Broadbent, mused aloud about replacing the Liberal Party as the choice on the left he proved a tad overzealous. The election that followed returning the Ed led NDP’s typically modest and respectable results despite having been number one in the polls for a time.

    The local riding is represented by incumbent Peggy Nash, and she has an excellent chance of holding on to her seat. She faces a tough challenger in Liberal Gerard Kennedy, the Conservatives have no chance, their candidate doesn’t even come to the all candidate’s meetings, or, is probably not allowed.

    Jack would make a much more effective leader of the opposition than Stephane Dion [say Stephane Dion in the disdainful tone from the Conservative attack ads]

14. Maxime Rainville (Conservative) October 4th, 2008 at 5:26 am 14

    If at one point it becomes apparent that the Conservative will form a majority, then maybe a lot of lefty voters who where willing to stomach the Liberals in the hope of blocking the Conservatives will go back to the NDP.

    My money is on the opposite affect to happen. In 2004 and 2006, the Liberals manage to come up with an Hail Mary near the end of the campaigns to block the Conservatives. They’ll probably try it again this year.

15. Wasyl Wysoczanskyj (Non-Partisan) October 4th, 2008 at 7:06 am 15

    It depends who the left chooses to back in close ridings on election day, the Liberals as they have done in last 2 elections, or the NDP. Wildcard is Greens. Will May pitch her supporters to Dion, thereby discrediting her campaign and losing her party some $10 Million in funding (remember the $1.75/vote/year), or not? And if she does, will they go? If you want to shake up the system, an NDP opposition would do that.

16. David October 4th, 2008 at 7:33 am 16

    Louise Tremblay Matchett
    October 3rd, 2008 at 7:37 pm 7

    So what is the big problem if the NDP becomes the opposition? This post sounds as if it is something to be so terrified about! Why? What fear?

    Not the case at all… We just wanted to have a discussion about the possibily or not for the NDP to become the official opposition. Also wanted to get a local point of view from all the regions of Canada!

17. Adam Sobolak October 4th, 2008 at 2:48 pm 17

    Here’s how I see it (substitutions welcome).

    Suppose the NDP gains both the St. John’s seats–32.
    Add a plausible couple in Nova Scotia (say, Dartmouth and South Shore)–34.
    Maybe, to be generous yet prudent (though I wouldn’t bet the house on it), another couple in Quebec (Gatineau and Hull?)–36.
    A five-seat uptake in Northern Ontario (Kenora, the TBs, Algoma, Nickel Belt)–41.
    Others where they got at least 30% in Southern Ontario (Beaches, Davenport, Oshawa, Welland)–45.
    Churchill in Manitoba–46.
    Nettie Wiebe does it in Saskatoon–47.
    Edmonton-Strathcona (don’t shudder)–48.
    And maybe Vancouver-Kingsway and Esquimalt–50.
    And everything they already hold, remains in Dipper hands.

    Don’t take that as a prediction. Take that as a 50-seat assertion of plausibility.

18. Whiskey Echo (N. Van, unaffiliated Canadian nationalist) October 6th, 2008 at 2:25 pm 18

    I don’t think the NDP will become official opposition. They may get a bit of a boost in certain areas but looking at the post-debate polls from yesterday and today’s news, it still shows that the Liberals are ahead of them (and rising just as the NDP and Greens are), and the seat projections still show the BQ getting more seats than the NDP.

    Of course, this comes down to riding by riding battles, but the NDP’s support seems to be in areas that are so urban-core they will never go Conservative (East Vancouver for example), or else Liberal support is near non-existent (rural BC). The NDP’s strategy of attacking the Liberals rather than (or as much as) the Conservatives is a bit foolish. Layton jumping between wanting to stop Harper and then wanting to be the opposition leader against a Conservative *majority* government is not doing the NDP any favours.

    Dion’s fortunes are not getting worse right now, they’re currently getting better – the NDP line of attack should be against the Conservatives, to make sure to take those close Conservative-NDP races in places where the Liberals or Greens are not a big factor. A general “we are the main opposition to Harper now” call is not likely to work without polls backing it up (and they don’t).

    The NDP also cannot count on Green voters switching to them – not because they are not also anti-Harper, but because the animosity between the two Groups is very strong, made moreso by the NDP lining up with Harper on the carbon tax issue. Again, the choice Layton made benefits the rural NDP’s chances, but not the city ones.