Thirty-seven days and about $300 million later, Canadians awake to a “new” government in Ottawa. The Conservatives under Prime Minister Stephen Harper have built on their previous minority position and added a substantial number of seats, just a tad short of a majority. The Liberals, meanwhile, have seen the biggest decline in support in at least twenty years, placing Liberal leader Stéphane Dion’s head squarely and firmly on the chopping block. The Greens have failed yet again to elect a single MP, which will shut them out of the televised leaders’ debates no matter how loudly leader Elizabeth May screams to push her way in again. The NDP has gained a good number of seats, but despite party leader Jack Layton’s determination to replace Mr. Harper, it is quite obvious now that there is a ceiling to how far the federal NDP can go in Canada.

While the election may have produced a result that is only slightly different from the last parliament, there have been some interesting developments at riding level. Trudeau scion Justin won his seat in Montréal under the Liberal banner, and is already being traded on the rumour mill as a potential leadership candidate to follow in his famous father’s footsteps. Garth Turner, a former Conservative, then Liberal, MP, has been defeated in his Ontario riding – too bad for his constituents, but certainly a boon for the fans of his blog, as Mr. Turner will now be a free agent who can speak his mind without any fetters imposed by party discipline.

Alberta, always considered a “Tory fortress” in the “stranglehold of Conservatives”, has made a bit of history of its own by electing an NDP candidate, Linda Duncan, in an Edmonton riding. It goes to show that Albertans, who are actually not conservatives, but either small-liberals or outright libertarians, can vote outside the Conservative box, as long as it involves a party other than the federal Liberals.

The opposition parties have been quick to laugh at Mr. Harper and his latest “failure” to obtain a majority government, but realistically, the Conservatives will have a de facto majority for at least two years. The Liberals are in disarray and abundantly discouraged. Instead of rushing headlong into another leadership race, which produced the current albatross of a leader, Stéphane Dion, inside sources are saying that this time they want to take their time to rebuild the party and recruit a real and effective leader.

Apart from the Liberals’ troubles, Mr. Harper’s position is further strengthened by the two independent MPs elected to the House of Commons, who are both conservatives and who will be voting with the Conservative government on 99.9% of all matters before the House, thus making them part of the Tory caucus.

In Mr. Harper’s own words, the last parliament had become “dysfunctional”, which prompted him to call for an election. In view of the composition of the next parliament, voters have reason to hope that it will produce good results for Canadians. As Mr. Layton put it, “No party has a mandate to implement an agenda without agreement from the other parties.” So, the next parliament could, indeed, come to be defined by compromise and consensus and thus achieve real results for Canadians. Coalition governments in several European countries have regularly worked quite well – including those between conservatives and social democrats – and there is no reason to suspect that such a co-operative approach to government could not work in Canada.

Whichever form the next legislature takes, the Liberals will play only a very diminished role in it, if any at all, for the next two years or so. Changing leaders will not be enough. The party will have to undergo a root-and-branch reform and rebuilding effort from the ground up. The Liberals must also face up to the new reality of Canada: the centre of gravity has moved to Western Canada, as pundit and journalist Andrew Coyne noted on CBC last night as well, with the westward shift fully under way, which the Liberals have ignored at their own peril.