At the beginning of the campaign it looked as though former Liberal MP Marc Godbout had a good chance of retaking the traditional Liberal riding of Ottawa-Orleans. Incumbent Royal Galipeau had taken the riding away from him by a small margin the last time, helped by the fact that the NDP ran a strong candidate who won more than 15% of the vote. This time the NDP has been practically invisible, not announcing a candidate until the very last minute. Godbout should have been able to count on a significant proportion of those votes returning to the Liberal fold. The Greens are running a stronger candidate than the NDP and will probably outpoll them.

But a recent poll (small number polled) indicates that Galipeau has a commanding lead over Godbout. Godbout appears to be relatively competetive among the francophone minority (one-third) but lagging behind Galipeau among the anglophones. I find this surprising. Could it be that Liberal infighting is holding Godbout back? Would they have been wiser to pick an alternate candidate for this campaign,e.g. the former NDP candidate, Mark Leahy