I had a Dr.’s appointment in Kerrisdale this afternoon. My journey from work (1st and Boundary) to West Boulevard took me along Broadway, up Nanaimo, across 33rd–must of it the Vancouver Kingsway riding (VK).

VK is of course the riding of David Emerson. Paul Martin convinced Emerson to run for the Grits. Once Martin went down to Harper in 2006, Emerson went from “Stephen Harper is teh evil” to “sure dude, I’ll totally be your minister.” Many in the riding were choked about this–and still are.

So you’d think there’d be little support for the Tories in VK, right? Well if signs are…a sign of anything, there’s a lot of Blue (Cons.) in that there riding. There’s also a lot of Orange (NDP) and Red (Lib.). A lot of each. Here’s a bit on each candidate:

Salomon Rayek is a businessman who runs an import/export business.

Wendy Yuan is the CEO of Bradley Pacific.

Don Davies is a lawyer specializing in human and worker rights.

Doug Warkentin is a researcher engineer and environmental entrepreneur.

I found the rich swarths of colour profoundly moving. If only every riding was as engaged!

This information is noteworthy and should be read and internalized by all Canadians before heading to the polls on October 14. It is proof positive, yet again, that on October 14, the only right way to vote is Anything But Liberal (ABL) or Anyone But Dion (ABD) – emphasis added:

Strange, isn’t it? Along with other Canadian journalists, CBC anchor Peter Mansbridge (to cite only one example) uses the word “massive” to describe the $700-billion (U.S.) economic rescue package in the United States – but declines to use it to describe the cost of Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion’s election promises. Why this deference? Most analysts say that Mr. Dion’s promises would cost $80-billion (Canadian). Based on population numbers and using the usual 10-to-1 conversion ratio, Mr. Dion’s promises would thus cost the U.S. equivalent of $800-billion in supplementary spending. If the U.S. credit crunch expenditure is massive, Mr. Dion’s campaign promise expenditures must necessarily be massive, too.

Throw in a high-speed train service between Toronto and Montreal, which Mr. Dion has endorsed but hasn’t promised (at a cost of another $20-billion), and the Liberal Leader – his promises again expressed in cross-border conversion – hits $1-trillion in campaign commitments, making the credit crunch relief operation look quite restrained and, in an odd way, less important than the restoration of Liberal rule in Canada.

In this relative kind of comparison, useful in keeping things in perspective, Mr. Dion’s election promises exceed the cost of the U.S. government’s emergency credit crunch bailout. Yet Mr. Dion’s promises exceed the U.S. bailout in absolute terms – when compared on a per-capita basis. Mr. Dion’s promises would increase government spending by $2,424 for each man, woman and child in the country; the U.S. emergency funding package would increase government spending by $2,330.

Predicted winner – Liberal

Liberal Charles Hubbard has held the seat since 1993. He’s considered by many to be a good MP who generally takes a centrist stand on issues. He was against the gun registry due to the rural nature of his riding but the National Gun Registry still was located in his riding along with the jobs that go with it. Talk about having your cake and eating it too.

X-Factor – Disdain, distrust or a lack of understanding of the Liberal’s carbon tax might eat into some of Hubbard’s support but he has a weak competition this time around which should more than make up for any losses.

Crossposted – Spink About It

I thought I’d have a day away from politics when I booked three seats on the SS Segwun for a cruise of Lake Muskoka today (October 8th). I wanted my cousins from Australia to see what Cottage Country looks like.

But when I heard on the news this morning that Britain was pouring $200 billion into taking over its biggest banks, and that central banks around the world were cutting interest rates, it was clear that no matter where I went, I wouldn’t escape the turmoil.

We boarded the Segwun at Gravenhurst just before noon, with a slight drizzle in the air. You couldn’t avoid hearing the election being discussed. Complimentary copies of the Toronto Star were being handed out:

Once on board, I chatted up a local man who was showing a German visitor the beauty of the Muskoka district. On the financial crisis, he had a comment of considerable wisdom: “Nobody knows what’s really going on.”

Gravenhurst is in the Parry Sound riding that Health Minister Tony Clement won by a razor thin margin in 2006. We had come up from Lagoon City, in the adjoining Simcoe North riding, where Tory Bruce Stanton is fighting to hold the seat against a strong challenge from Liberal Steve Clark.

As an indication of how winnable the Liberals think Simcoe North is, Stephane Dion has scheduled a visit to Orillia for Saturday morning.

A few tourists filled out the on-board complement on the Segwun. Here’s one:

On our return to Lagoon City, the news was all about Stephane Dion’s speech in Toronto today. His best line, apparently, was:  “We need to change course, we need to change the captain, we need to change the whole crew.”

Globe and Mail editorialist Adam Radwanski, blogging Dion’s speech, had this verdict: “The right speech to give right now.”

With the polls so volatile, it’s beginning to look like we’ll watch the election results from the edges of our chairs.

www.wildaboutwriting.com

Talk about something long enough, and it may just happen. Wish for something, and the universe may just listen and grant you your wish. Some would call it the underlying principle of The Secret; to others, it is merely a self-fulfilling prophecy.

In some ways this is how special-interest groups operate in order to drive public debate on their pet issues. They keep shining the spotlight on an issue in the hope of influencing people’s behaviour or attitudes. This, for example, is how wearing real fur has come to be considered gauche, and the global warming movement has been planting similar seeds in people’s minds.

Liberal leader Stéphane Dion has been driving his own mind-and-behaviour-altering campaign by talking incessantly about how sick the Canadian economy has become. Prime Minister Stephen Harper, realizing the effect that this could have on people and the economy, retorted that Mr. Dion was panicking and might actually trigger an economic crisis by repeatedly talking it down. It is for this reason that Mr. Harper has assumed a position some consider standoffish and even cold. When one political leader runs around like a headless chicken screaming “The sky is falling”, the other must step in and counteract any negative effect this will invariably have.
(more…)

Excerpt from Oct. 8/08 RGE Monitor, written by highly regarded New York University professor and economist Nouriel Roubini.

“Canada, which only narrowly missed a recession in the first half of 2008, could, surprisingly, be the best off of the G7 in the coming months according to the IMF, but growth is at a standstill. With 25% of the economy dependent on U.S.- bound exports, Canada can’t decouple. Canada’s banks are relatively healthy, buttressed by the Bank of Canada’s liquidity provision  but higher credit costs will depress corporate profits. Meanwhile the slowing in the housing market might not unfold as benignly as some might hope and domestic demand, is slowing sharply as consumer confidence fades and household wealth suffers from asset price declines. Despite the candidates promises ahead of next week’s election, a fiscal deficit is in sights. “

Reprinted with permission from Fair Vote Canada.

Open letter from Fair Vote Canada to strategic voters and vote-swappers

“Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result.” – Albert Einstein

Another federal election and another disaster for democracy.On October 14, millions of Canadians – possibly eight million – will become orphan voters, casting ballots that send no one to Ottawa. As usual, the election results will be wildly distorted.

Some parties will get a portion of seats far exceeding their portion of the popular vote, while others will get too little or none at all.We may even see a party opposed by six voters in every ten take majority control in the House of Commons.

Why we call this exercise “democracy” is a continuing mystery.

During every election in recent memory the frustration created by an undemocratic electoral system leads some to conclude that voters should try to “game” the system. Instead of marking the ballot for a party you support, they say, be “smart” and vote for a party you do not support in order block another party that you despise.

A recent poll by the Toronto Star indicated that about half of those supporting the Liberals, NDP and Green Party would consider casting a negative or “strategic” vote, abandoning the party they actually prefer, to vote for another party in the hope of stopping a candidate from the front-running Conservatives.

In addition to 40% of the eligible voters who choose not to vote we could now have another large group of people who have given up on sincere voting and genuine democratic representation.

This is no way to nourish pride of citizenship or public respect for the laws that emanate from an unrepresentative Parliament.

Citizens in most major democracies take for granted their right to cast a vote that elects the representation they want. In the upcoming election, the majority of Canadian voters will all but certainly be denied that right.Fair Vote Canada cannot advise voters whether to cast negative votes or to participate in vote-swapping schemes on October 14. It’s rarely a clear or easy choice.

What we can advise is that all Canadians should be coming together to demand reform of our country’s undemocratic election process.

If you have not already done so, join and support Fair Vote Canada. Sign the Fair Vote Canada petition calling for a national referendum on electoral reform. Urge other organizations to make active citizenship, equal votes and proportional representation for all Canadians a part of their basic mission.

Together we can win.

British Columbians showed the way in 2005 when 58% voted by referendum for proportional representation, only to be frustrated – in the short-term – by an undemocratic government-imposed threshold of 60%. On May 12, 2009, British Columbians will vote again in an electoral reform referendum. With our encouragement and help, they can lead Canada on the path of democratic renewal.

The electoral system has orphaned many of us. We must refuse to be silenced. Democracy has been long delayed, but if democrats are steadfast, democracy will not be forever denied.

Fair Vote Canada
Orphan Voters

Please help spread the word about the importance of reforming our electoral system – distribute this letter widely. – Ocean.

The last two all-candidates meetings of this campaign will take place Thu 09 Oct. The hopefuls get an early start with a live debate on CKAT radio 600 AM. The program, hosted by Dean Belanger, gets under way at 08:00. The program will also be available via a live stream on the Internet. Voters can email questions to the candidates by mailing them to Belanger at CKAT in advance of the program.

Thursday evening, the Mattawa-Bonfield Chamber of Commerce will be hosting its all candidates meeting at the Champlain Theatre in Mattawa at 19:00.

All the candidates have confirmed for both events.

Say I support a party and want it to govern. I want it to win seats this election. My vote supports it financially, and money is the lifeblood of politics. Under the political financing law, each vote provides the party $1.75/year. So 1 million votes gives my party $7.5 Million dollars over a four year term. That goes a long way to providing my party the resources to grow support in the near term, and over time, hopefully lead to forming a government.

But what if my party’s candidate has no chance of winning in my riding? Do I vote “strategically” (really tactically) to stop my least favorite outcome? This not only deprives my party of money and gives it to my opponents, but if I make this choice in election after election, likely reinforces the perception in the general electorate that my party is a fringe party, with no chance of winning and not worthy of support. This perception becomes self perpetuating, and my party likely never gets elected. Am I prepared to continue working for and supporting such a party?

 Electoral success is the result of conviction and persistence over a number of years. Strategy by definition means a long term perspective.  There are 35% of Canadians who didn’t vote in the last election. Perhaps as my party grows its support and get its message out, these voters may find my party offers them a real choice they want to support. But they won’t have this choice if my party becomes irrelevant. Voting with conviction for my party is the best strategic vote I can make. If I don’t support my party, how can I expect others to do it.

(et je me positionne clairement)

Quelle ne fut pas ma surprise de recevoir un appel de Meili Faille lundi après le travail.  En fait, le but premier des son appel était de répondre à mon interrogation sur les raisons qui l’avait poussée à se retirer du débat à la moitié de l’événement qui avait lieu vendredi dernier à Hudson.  Or, comme c’est fréquent dans une campagne électorale, l’horaire d’un candidat peut être modifié en tout temps.  C’est ce qui est arrivé à madame Faille.  La rencontre où elle devait faire une intervention juste avant le débat fut retardé et a duré plus longtemps que prévu;  Ce qui explique son arrivé tardive.  De plus, ses organisateurs ont préféré organiser une autre rencontre avec un regroupement, dont j’oublie la nature, avant que le débat se termine.  Madame Faille à jugée bon de poursuivre dans des rencontres qui lui seraient plus favorable.  Au final, j’approuve pleinement son geste, sachant que de toute façon, l’audience du débat à Hudson était plutôt « paquetée » du côté Fortier.  Meili Faille n’avait pas beaucoup à gagner, au contraire du débat qui aura lieu ce soir à la Cité-Des-Jeunes de Vaudreuil.  Malgré cela, elle m’a mentionné que les gens qui sont allé voir sa représentante à la fin du débat n’avaient que de bons mots pour elle.  Elle m’a même cité un ou deux regroupements de Hudson qui reconnaissent sont bon travail.  Sauf erreur, on m’a dit que Michael Fortier pourrait être absent ce soir.  Tenterait-il de limiter les dégâts en fin de campagne?  De toute façon, ils se retrouveront tous à RDI jeudi soir pour un autre débat.  Ce sera à surveiller. 

Par ailleurs, Meili et moi avons pris le temps de parler des différences entre sa campagne et celle de monsieur Fortier.  Nous avons convenu que le défi pour Fortier est plutôt d’aller chercher les votes du côté Libéral.  Ce n’est pas facile pour lui.  Je suis de celui qui croit que madame Brigitte Legault à la capacité, grâce à son charisme, son expérience et à cause de la tendance forte des anglophones et des non-souverainistes de la région, de conserver une bonne majorité des votes rouges.  Or, Meili Faille m’a confié que son noyau dur de supporteur dans la région est resté élevé et intacte, ce qui est une bonne nouvelle.  Par contre, selon elle, les résultats du sondage paru il y a plus d’une semaine lui paraissent un peu exagérés.  En effet, elle pense plutôt qu’un chiffre autour du 35%, après répartition des indécis serait plus juste; ce qui lui donne malgré tout une confortable avance sur ses adversaires.  J’ai même eu vent de la rumeur qui veut que Fortier sente tellement que sa campagne glisse vers le bas, que l’ancien premier ministre provincial et député de Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Daniel Johnson, viendrait lui prêter main forte sous peu (ceci sous toute réserve bien sûr). 

Enfin, et c’est la partie intéressante, nous avons discuté de ses méthodes de campagne et de son approche.  Elle m’a bien candidement mentionné que ce qui l’intéresse le plus, c’est le côté social et le fait de supporter des gens de la communauté de Vaudreuil-Soulange, au delà de leurs allégeances.  Elle m’a d’ailleurs rappelé sa présence à une rencontre avec les anciens combattants, au courant de son dernier mandat, pour une journée en leur honneur.  Le problème est qu’aucun autre représentant des autres partis fédéraux ne s’était présenté.  À bien y penser, le topo est assez paradoxal mais démontre l’universalité de Meili Faille.  En effet, au-delà de la basse partisannerie, il y a les humains et Meili Faille le comprends.  Il y a abondance d’exemple comme celui-là.  De plus, elle m’a confirmé que les organismes sociaux et autres groupes de la région ont commencé à voir Michael Fortier seulement lorsque la possibilité d’élection s’est fait sérieusement sentir.  Heureusement, les gens ne sont pas dupes.  Avant de voter, rappeler vous l’attitude de Fortier dans la présente campagne : arrogant, portant attention à ses intérêts supérieurs avant ceux de la région, contrôle des communications venant de son propre parti, opportunisme crasse, nonchalance face aux besoins des plus démuni et de la culture locale et j’en passe.  Je crois fermement que le vote de cette élection dépasse la basse partisannerie ou le simple fait d’avoir une représentante souverainiste dans le comté.  Ainsi, la question que je vous pose : Est-ce que nous avons besoin de quelqu’un qui sera là seulement quand le « Kodak » sera présent ou bien avons-nous besoin d’une personne qui est présente en tout temps pour ses citoyens et qui défendra bec et ongle les intérêts de sa communauté et du Québec à Ottawa?  Dans Vaudreuil-Soulanges, avons-nous besoin d’une star sortie de nulle part qui sera impliquée dans toutes sortes de projets qui vont souvent à l’encontre de nos intérêts et des besoins immédiats de la région?  Avons-nous avantage à voter pour quelqu’un qui défendra en premier lieu les intérêts de la région de Montréal?  Poser la question c’est aussi y répondre.

Malgré le fait que j’aime bien l’attitude de madame Brigitte Legault du parti Libéral et que j’ai énormément d’affinité avec Jean-Yves Massenet et les politique du parti Vert, cette élection demande aux citoyen de réfléchir aux conséquences désastreuse pour le Québec advenant qu’un Michael Fortier et les Conservateurs prennent la majorité du gouvernement. C’est pourquoi mon vote ira du côté de Meili Faille et du Bloc Québécois mardi prochain.

********************

Petite prédiction du jour

Comme je l’avais fait lors des dernières élections provinciales, je me suis prêté au jeu des prédictions. Je répète l’exercice maintenant, sachant fort bien que ce ne sont que des prédictions un peu biaisée.

Meili Faille (Bloc) = 38%
Brigitte Legault (Libéral) = 25%
Michael Fortier (Conservateur) = 24%
Jean-Yves Massenet (Vert) = 9%
Maxime Héroux-Legault (NPD) = 4%

Taux de participation = 69%. Faite le calcul du nombre de vote pour chacun.

Qu’en pensez-vous? Surprenant non? Je crois fortement qu’effectivement, Michael Fortier ira gruger les votes destinés aux Libéraux pour passer de 19% à la dernière élection, à plus de 24% pour cette fois. Il serait intellectuellement malhonnête de croire que monsieur Fortier ferait pire que lors des dernières élections fédérales. Voyons voir si je changerai ces pourcentages avant le 14 octobre.

We’re coming down the stretch, and I thought I’d post a few little tidbits from the local campaigns.

Conservative Fréchette in Hull-Aylmer a former Liberal

It was reported in Le Droit today that Conservative candidate Paul Fréchette was formerly a member of the Liberal Party until January 2006. In fact, he contributed $300 to Marcel Proulx’s campaign in 2004.

Fréchette says that he left the party because of the sponsorship scandal, but considering he left only in January 2006 (when Liberal fortunes took a turn for the worst) that reasoning sounds a little unlikely.

More likely is Proulx’s hypothesis, which is that Fréchette switched to the Conservatives because he saw an opportunity in the wake of Lawrence Cannon’s success in Pontiac.

Mulcair in Gatineau

Thomas Mulcair, the only New Democrat MP from Quebec, was in Gatineau this morning in support of local NDP candidate Françoise Boivin. This just demonstrates how seriously the NDP considers its chances in the riding. I imagine that, after Outremont, this is where the NDP thinks it could take a second seat in Quebec.

Conservative Candidate in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell and his Religious Views

Le Droit also reported on Conservative MP Pierre Lemieux’s campaign in Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, the Eastern Ontario riding where I grew up.

Apparently, Lemieux thinks neither his fervent Catholicism nor his opposition to gay marriage and abortion will hurt his chances against Liberal Dan Boudria.

Fervent, says I? Well, Lemieux has a picture of the Pope (yes, the Pope) in his Parliamentary office. And in his former place of employment he had a statue of the Virgin Mary.

He has participated in several anti-choice rallies on Parliament Hill during his tenure as MP, and one of his daughters was master of ceremonies for some sort of National Pro-Life Walk.

Taking all of this into account, does anyone seriously believe that Pierre Lemieux can separate his faith – which is not shared (and especially practised) by all his constituents – from his political decisions?

Hopefully, this riding will re-elect the Liberals.

Cross-posted to Sovereignty en Anglais.

Predicted Winner – NDP

Called the giant killer for beating Liberal Cabinet Minister Doug Young in 1997, NDP MP Yvon Godin has now won four consecutive elections in a province which generally doesn’t support the NDP provincially or federally. He won the last election with 50% of the vote.

X-Factor – None. This one is in the bag for Godin.

Crossposted – Spink About It