One of NDP leader Jack Layton’s recurring themes in this election campaign has been Stephen Harper’s “$50-billion giveaway in corporate tax cuts“.

If there’s anything we have learned, it’s “It’s the economy, stupid”. But equally important is: “Keep it simple, stupid.”

When Layton speaks of cancelling the corporate tax cuts, Harper immediately counters that it would be insane to saddle companies with an extra $50 billion in the current economic climate. Maybe this take is overly simplistic, but I doubt that the reversal of the cuts would result in companies being slammed with $50 billion.

Here’s why:

No matter what the tax rate, companies have a variety of options and tricks to reduce their taxable income – more so than any personal income taxpayer, a lot more, in fact.
(more…)

Le Devoir had a story today about the upcoming memoirs of former Prime Minister Paul Martin.  Apparently,  Mr. Martin devotes a few chapters to blasting his predecessor, Prime Minister Chrétien.

In terms of electoral timing, I don’t think this really matters.  The only people who are going to care are politcal junkies.  There was that interessing claim that the campaing finance laws limiting political contributions were set up by Chrétien to underminde Paul Martin chances.

I find it interessing for several reasons.  For one, it’s the closes thing to a politically embarrassing statement in that article.  Secondly, coming from Paul Martin, the idea that Chrétien was pushing this bill to undercut him, sounds incredibly self-centered.  Ever heard of a concept called “principles”. And finally,  Paul Martin did not exactly help his cause with his handling of the sponsorship scandal.

I think some folks at the Liberal HQ were operating under the idea that the canadian electorate would make a difference between the Martin Liberals and the Chrétien Liberals.  The sad truth is that, had Paul Martin not set up the Gomery inquiry, I think he could very well still be Prime Minister today.

Also, someone should tell all those “has been” leaders with an overdeveloped self-consciousness about their legacies, to take a page out of Lucien Bouchard’s playbook.  Say whatever you want about the guy, he’s been smart enough to stay out of the news after leaving office. The only time he did intervene was when he published the “Manifeste pour un Québec lucide” and even then he surronded himself with a cross party crowd and he addressed the issue in a non-partisan way.

That’s statesmanship.  Using your last significant contribution to the public debate to trash your former opponents is not.

 North Vancouver

Capilano College Debate
When: 12:00pm – 1:00pm, Tuesday, October 7th
Where: Cedar Theatre – Cedar Bulding (across from the library), Capilano University, 2055 Purcell Way

North Vancouver Chamber of Commerce Debate
When: 6:30pm – 9:00pm, Wednesday, October 8th
Where: Highlands United Church, 3255 Edgemont Boulevard

Parkgate Debate

When: 7:30pm – 9:00pm, Thursday, October 9th
Where: Mount Seymour United Church, 1200 Parkgate Ave.

West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky Country:

Powell River All Candidates’ Meeting
When: 7:00 to 9:00pm, Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Where: Evergreen Theatre, 5001 Joyce Ave Powell River

West Vancouver All Candidates’ Meeting
When:7:00pm, Thursday, October 9, 2008
Where: Kay Meek Centre 1700 Mathers Avenue, West Vancouver

This afternoon I received an email from the local Conservative campaign. It brought up several interesting points which I’d like to address here.

 

On Campaign Literature:

The Weston Campaign email mocked the on-the-ground organization of the Liberal, Green and NDP candidates. Of specific note, there was the suggestion that no literature has been mailed out by any of the major parties. It’s an interesting point, and I was planning on writing something about it anyway. While I don’t know what date, specifically, the note was written, my experience is significantly different than the one expressed by the Weston Campaign email.

 

While I haven not, to date, received any NDP literature, I don’t recall ever receiving any NDP literature in this riding – very much a non-issue (and I don’t know that if I were the Conservatives I’d necessarily be gloating about this– the more strong campaigns around to split the vote, the better).

 

The Liberals have managed to provide literature in a mail out in my neighbourhood. While aesthetically reasonable on the outside, it’s poorly designed, bland and amateurish inside and on the back – I find this a bit shocking as it looks to be a simple template, how do you screw up a template?. In short, it looks as though it was thrown together at the last second (which undoubtedly it was given the late nomination of the candidate). Because the Liberals got in the game late, they had to choose a template (again assuming) for the flyers loaded with information on the platform, history and the candidate which, really, makes the brochure daunting for anyone looking for quick hits about the candidate or party. However, at least they got something out before advanced polling unlike some parties (see above, below). Quick note: it says a lot that I’m complaining about a party giving me too much info, doesn’t it.

 

Blair Wilson’s campaign/office has provided my area of the riding with several mail outs – one a slick looking effort, which was very accessible. Clear, plain language combined with a simple premise – though a little light on party platform…and really, if you were going to highlight anything, would it be your proposed raising of the GST? Nonetheless, easily the best literature I’ve received during the campaign. We also received a riding update after the writ dropped (though published before Blair joined the Greens) which was timed very well.

 

On to the Conservative Campaign, from whom I have yet to receive any literature from whatsoever. Well, that’s not exactly true. I have received information from their North Vancouver candidate (quite the publication I might add) and 20 percenters 2-3 times a week from Lee Richardson’s office. All that comes to mind is that before casting stones at the ineptitude of your opponents, perhaps one ought to consider making sure that they are aware of the boundaries of one’s own riding…I suppose it’s still possible that I’ll receive some information (perhaps waiting for the platform to be released) before voting day. However, none of this is particularly useful for those of us that have already voted. Bravo.

 

On Vandalism:

Beyond the normal mischief associated with vandalizing campaign signs, the Conservatives have charged that there has “been politically targeted” vandalism against them in West Vancouver – Sunshine Coast – STSC. It’s quite obvious that the same is true of the Liberals in both that riding and North Vancouver as well – I’m sure that the Greens and NDP have also had some similar experience. I particularly find such action distasteful when involving signs on private property and hope that those who enjoy defacing signs at least respect private property and the right of citizens to express their choice for MP.

 

I bring this up mostly because of the news coming out of Toronto regarding vandalism to the homes of Liberal supporters. Let’s hope that the silliness here doesn’t progress to anything beyond throwing a sign in a bush (and that the box cutters that have been cutting up Liberal and Conservative signs are put away for the remainder of the campaign).

 

One final note. Things seem to be tightening up, ever so slightly on the ground in both North Shore ridings– it almost (ALMOST) feels like there’s a fight a-brewin’ in West Van-Sunshine Coast-STSC and perhaps Don Bell’s campaign has found some strength and traction. We’ll see, I suspect that a Liberal charge is likely too little too late, assuming they can even maintain the trickle of momentum they have managed the last few days.

We’re into a tumultuous week in Canadian politics. Seven days to go in the campaign, and we’re looking at:

• A market meltdown, a looming recession, and — at last — a hurriedly rewritten Conservative party platform
• Tightening of the polls, crippling the Tory surge that once made a Harper majority likely
• The real possibility of a fractured Parliament that could see the birth of a Liberal-NDP coalition.

Monday night, after much criticism from the Opposition parties, the blogosphere and talk show radio from coast to coast, the PM finally blinked. He admitted “significant storm clouds” are gathering over Canada, but used the alarm to suggest the Liberal party’s Green Shift would only make things worse. “We have other plans, other proposals,’ he declared, seeking to reassure worried voters.

“Too little, too late,” Stephan Dion said of the Conservative leader’s pronouncement. And the PM’s “do nothing” policy “isn’t going to do anything to protect your jobs or your savings or your pensions or the home you live in,” chimed in Jack Layton.

Bloc leader Gilles Duceppe moved the yardsticks a bit further. He wants an urgent recall of Parliament as soon as possible after the election. “We need concrete measures as soon as possible.”

Duceppe may have touched a nerve. If the Conservatives fail to win a majority but emerge with the most seats, they’d likely try to delay meeting Parliament, perhaps until into the New Year.

The polls now show Conservative support at 32 to 35 per cent – a point or two below what they gained in 2006. At this rate, they could end up with a bare third of the vote.Â

Because Liberal support is also down — now between 25 and 30 per cent, say the pollsters (it was 30 per cent in the last election), it’s hardly likely they will win more seats than the Tories.Â

With the NDP now hovering at 20 per cent, the Bloc at 10 or 11 and the Greens over 10, we may end up with a “House of Minorities” like nothing we’ve ever seen before.

Coalition talk heats up

Last week, I passed on Judy Rebick’s idea for a Liberal-NDP coalition, with Bloc support. It could happen. When my blog was posted on Democratic Space, several readers gave the idea their backing.

One response: “I would fully support a NDP-Liberal-Bloc coalition, and I totally disagree with the premise that the Bloc wouldn’t support it; it’s there to work with the federal system for Quebec’s interests until Quebec decides otherwise.”

If the Conservatives win the most seats, Mr. Harper will be entitled to go back in, But he’ll be obligated to meet Parliament at the earliest opportunity. Which is what Mr. Duceppe was really saying.

What would it take to defeat a Harper government in Parliament?

1. A formal agreement between the Liberals and the NDP for a “crisis coalition” to meet the the dire economic circumstances threatening to befall Canada
2. AÂ commitment on the part of the Bloc to let such a coalition govern for a reasonable time — say, two years.

It’s almost a certainty that if Mr. Dion could craft such an arrangement, the Harper government would be toppled on a Throne Speech confidence vote. The Governor-General would have no option but to give him a chance to form the government.

It would take some convoluted, as well as tough, bargaining. Mr. Layton would be in line for Deputy Prime Minister. And perhaps to balance things out, Mr. Dion would call in his friend Elizabeth May as Minister of the Environment. If she’s not elected, there would be pressure for a Liberal in a safe riding to step down for a by-election. She’d be a cinch to win it.

As far-fetched as this scenario may sound, it’s clear that as many as two-thirds of Canadians don’t want Mr. Harper as Prime Minister. Let the market drop another thousand points, and watch the banks begin to scream for fresh capital to keep the wheels of credit turning. Nothing Mr. Harper has done so far would indicate he’s equipped to cope with such a situation.

And give a thought to this twist: If vote splitting is carried to its extreme, it’s not impossible the Bloc could end up as the Official Opposition. All the more reason for a Liberal-NDP coalition.

One thing’s sure: If the country emerges divided from the polling booths next Tuesday, get ready for the “Mother of all political battles” on the floor of Parliament.

www.wildaboutwriting.com

I endorsed Linda Duncan a while ago, because I think that we need people like her (i.e., those committed to education issues) in the House of Commons.

Since I don’t live in her Edmonton riding, I won’t be able to vote for her personally, but the good news is that a Liberal, daveberta, has now announced that he’ll be voting for her:

After some long and difficult thinking, I have decided that I will be voting for Edmonton-Strathcona NDP candidate Linda Duncan.

It seems that Linda’s momentum is growing, and she may even have a real chance of winning the riding – yes, in a province where all 28 seats are currently held by Conservatives. If anyone can pull it off, it’s Linda. Go, Linda, go.

The Conservative candidate David Anderson in Cypress Hills – Grasslands scuttled an All Candidates forum in Assiniboia, SK after he refused to attend. That’s according to Duane Filson’s campaign office. The Chamber of Commerce in that town had planned to hold a forum during the election, but decided not to have one after only the Conservatives decided to boycott. Anderson also was the one candidate of the four invited to an agricultural forum in Swift Current to not show up during the campaign.

Anderson has not avoided all chances to speak with the public as he was this past week on CKRM 620AM radio with Amber Jones of the Greens, Nettie Wiebe of the NDP, and a Liberal candidate (whose name escapes my memory) discussing strictly agricultural issues. Anderson was not debating against the other parties nominees from Cypress Hills – Grasslands riding in that radio program.

Although he had originally confirmed his attendance, Jack Layton has now decided to attend a rally in British Columbia rather than participate in the only all-candidates meeting being held in Toronto-Danforth tomorrow (Tuesday) evening at 8:00 p.m. at Riverdale Collegiate, 1094 Gerrard St. E. (at Jones).

As a result, Jack will miss the only opportunity that his constituents have to engage him in direct dialogue before the election.

My next blog post will be to report on what happens at tomorrow evening’s Toronto-Danforth all-candidates meeting.

In the meantime, learn more about Jack’s misadventures everywhere except Toronto-Danforth by visiting www.wheresjack.ca.

Gord Crann

Surprise! Approached by a couple of Conservative workers outside Maxi. (they are alive!) They said the campaign was virtual (ie.no office), but that they had canvassed over 75% of the riding. Indicated they had received negative feedback from voters for having original literature only in French. Objective is to finish ahead of the Bloc. So,received my first piece of campaign literature (bilingual), still have not heard from other campaigns. Noticed that several Dion signs had been defaced, unusual in this staunchly Liberal riding, but otherwise no sign of Liberal campaign.

After Britain general Mark Carleton-Smith coming out to say the war in Afghanistan could not be won and thought reducing the insurgency level so the Afghan army could take over, it’s now the U.N.’s turn (français).  Kai Eide’s,  U.N. special envoy to Afghanistan says:  “The war in Afghanistan cannot be won militarily and success is only possible through political means including dialogue between all relevant parties”

Diplomacy as a foreign policy tool has been out of the question since Harper and Bush are there.  Peter Mackay says it’s out of the question to leave the country and then negotiate and says it’s up to the Afghan government to negotiate.  But we have to remember that, it’s not because Canadian soldiers leave that there is no occidental army left in Afghanistan.  The U.S. has 33 000 soldiers there and Nato countries have plenty of men there too. 

It gives Jack Layton munitions because we know how Canadians have always been more comfortable with a Canadian army acting as peacekeepers in the U.N.  that in a war mission with NATO.  So the U.N. message is likely to get echo throughout the Canadian voters.

All Layton needs now is the Kevin Page report on the cost of the Afghan mission to come out before the 14^th as it was planned and he could get a part of the anti-war greens to come to the NDP.

So, I went out on Friday and voted in the advanced polling. Due to other obligations I am going to be out of the country on election day, and decided to do my civic duty by voting ahead of time.

The experience was the same as most, go in, give them ID and stuff. Go to the little box, and vote. I was surprised to see a different name as Conservative MP, Chuck Konkel. I have no information on him.

Saw that we have a Green candidate:

Alonzo Bartley: “He’ll do anything and everything from being directly involved and interacting with people to working administratively behind the scenes”.

That is an encouraging thing to say to be honest, I always  applaud when a MP has a strong base in constituency work. On his website he won the Metro Toronto Police Citation in 1985. Now some may ask why the only things listed are at least 11 years old, and say he may be resting on his laurels. But they are probably a bit too cynical.

As a note, a number of people in our riding hear John McKay and think you are talking about the Republican Senator. Have listened to this a large number of times. Is this a bad sign, or are people just gonna vote blindly Liberal anyway? (probably). There are barely any signs up in our neighbourhood, I am guessing theres going to be low turn out. But then again signs don’t vote, so time will tell about that.

My last note is, normally you see a number of independants on the ballot in our riding, this year, none.