Dans Vaudreuil-Soulanges, Bachand révèle sa vraie personnalité.  C’est un conservateur.  Les Québécois vont s’en rappeler lors des prochaines élections québécoises. Nous devrons saigner Bachand aux prochaines élections bien sûr électoralement puisque chacun a le droit à ses opinions, mais personnellement j’espère qu’il va payer pour son erreur.

Dans cyberpresse, on pousse les consevateurs comme on peut mais Fortier ne passera pas, il est loin derrière.  Voici ce que Bachand dit dans les médias conservateurs :

“Dans le domaine économique, M. Bachand a affirmé que son homologue fédéral a aussi joué un rôle prépondérant pour qu’Ottawa délie les cordons de la bourse afin de continuer le développement dans l’aérospatiale (investissements chez Pratt & Whitney et pour la CSeries de Bombardier à Mirabel, et les retombées des contrats militaires au Québec). ”

Et voici pourquoi je dit média conservateur.

Recently, and especially since the two debates, Jack Layton has been claiming that his party could form the Official Opposition on October 14th! But when you look at electoral history and the number of ridings where the NDP is seriously in play, could this really happen?

I was hoping all of you could chip in with your point of view on the local campaigns in your region, your province, and your riding. Can the NDP really win more than 50 ridings throughout Canada and set a record for New Democratic MPs?

Based on what I’ve seen, there are only a few ridings where the NDP has a chance.

In Newfoundland, the NDP could take St. John’s South-Mount Pearl, while Prince Edward Island is out of the question. In New Brunswick, only Acadie-Bathurst is on the table. They have more opportunities in Nova Scotia in the ridings of Halifax, Halifax-West, Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, and Sackville-Eastern Shore.

In Quebec the best chance is in Outremont, with long-shots in Hull-Aylmer and Gatineau.

Ontario is more fertile ground for the New Democrats, such as the ridings in the north (eight of them), Ottawa-Centre, the three in Hamilton and maybe Welland. The NDP can also potentially pick up four or five seats in Toronto.

In Manitoba, the NDP could win four or maybe five ridings, and probably only one each in Saskatchewan (Palliser) and Alberta (Edmonton-Strathcona).

British Columbia is the NDP’s real chance for a breakthrough, where they could take seats from both the Conservatives and the Liberals. We could be talking about as many as 15-18 ridings. And then there’s one in the North.

So, in total it’s a maximum of 50 ridings where the NDP has even a slim chance. This is not enough to form the Official Opposition (even the Bloc has a better chance of that!). Unless, of course, the Liberals have such a bad result that they can’t even win their ‘châteaux-forts’!

(Thanks to Éric Grenier for his help editing.)

There has been so much spin about who won or lost the debates, I’m a little dizzy. So, cutting through the spin, here’s my take on the two debates (for what it’s worth):

Harper: By remaining calm, Harper seemed to weather the storm, although he was a deer in headlights when May called him on having no platform. It is a pretty remarkable thing to ask for a majority mandate without telling anyone what you plan on doing with it (which is what a platform does). Combined with a low-key french performance, it’s clear Harper’s goal was to demonstrate he was a cool customer under pressure, which he did.

Dion: He may well have won the french debate by asserting himself forcefully (it was really a draw with Duceppe). I seriously doubt Dion won the english debate as some partisans have suggested, although I don’t think he hurt himself either. While his (and Duceppe’s) english is not as good as the others, it was perfectly understandable. Any suggestion to the contrary is just spin. But no doubt, he was not as strong as he was in the french debate. I suspect he did well enough to avoid a blowout.

Layton: he did his thing, using filthy sound-bites to attack Harper. I found him a little overly aggressive and maybe a bit too angry, but he struck a populist tone, which should serve him well. I think Layton probably needed to reach out more to dis-effected Liberals, but by relying upon tried-and-true anti-corporate rhetoric, he probably did not make a lot of headway. I suspect he did his supporters proud, but probably didn’t win over many new converts.

May: she made some good points, although probably spent too much time attacking Harper instead of more time outlining her party’s policies. Clearly, she was more comfortable in her first language (although her french has improved). I think her use of data (citing courses) lent credibility to her arguments and demonstrated she isn’t just a one-trick pony.

Duceppe: he was his usual conversational and direct self, making good points. Clearly, Duceppe was in his element in the french debate, emerging in a draw with Dion. Certainly, he demonstrated that he is a champion of Québec. His english performance, of course, was a little more pedestrian.

FYI, advance polls are open today (Fri Oct 3), from noon to 8pm local time. Advance voting is also available tomorrow (Sat Oct 4) and Monday (Oct 6), again from noon to 8pm. Visit Elections Canada to find out where to vote in your area.

This election is like no other. After two and a half years of a minority government, all the parties have been in campaign mode, always having had to expect an election call any day. This is probably why most voters had their votes already locked in even before the writ was dropped in early September.

Consequently, each party has held steady in the various polls, more or less, with Liberal leader Stéphane Dion finding it next to impossible to shed his negative image.

The televised debates, therefore, likely matter a lot less in this campaign than in any other. In fact, the debates are the least crucial factor determining the outcome of elections. The only exception came in the last election when out of sheer desperation, then-prime minister Paul Martin decided to make up new policy on the fly, vowing that he would scrap the notwithstanding clause from the constitution. It was then that his fate was sealed.

Jeffrey Simpson, of the Globe and Mail, notes in his column today that the debate format is inherently unfair and wrong – he calls it “lop-sided” and says that Harper “did as well as he could” under these circumstances:

One after another, the four opposition party leaders blasted Mr. Harper who, under the four-against-one format, was given relatively limited time to reply to the onslaught.

Predictably, the opposition leaders were mostly warm and cuddly about each other, while they were fierce about Mr. Harper. How any prime minister could emerge with a fair shake in such a one-sided arrangement wherein critics gets many, many more minutes than the incumbent remains a pressing question after last night’s gang-up.

The debate raised an issue no one wishes to address: how can any prime minister (leave Mr. Harper out of the question) get a fair debate under the circumstances that prevailed last night, wherein the leaders of small parties such as Green Leader Elizabeth May and Bloc Québécois Leader Gilles Duceppe get equal billing with the leader of a party with three or four times as many voters?

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Dion and Harper repeatedly targeted Layton with an old and worn out quick blast about Layton’s so called socialist ideas. Guess what, the cold war is long gone. The neoliberal agenda in the US proved economic failure. Ecuador and several countries in Latin America are understanding now that if they want to help middle and lower class people fight against corporate exaggeration they better unite against the establishment and board room parties.

Dion, is talking about social justice now, but we all know from the past liberal governments he won’t be on the working class’ side. He will keep supporting right wing economic ideas, he will continue to give away our natural resources through disadvantageous trade agreements like the FTAA or WTO as they did with Chrétien earlier. We have to remember that after signing Kyoto, the liberals did nothing to support that choice and the consequences were a disastrous increase in pollution. No the liberal party is not centre-left. It’s always been centre-right. They voted over 40 times to support the conservatives in commons. They stole from EI envelope before and they won’t be giving that money back.

Can’t forget also the sponsorship scandal. The liberals proved to be a corrupted government.

No, the only reason, Dion is calling Layton a socialist is because he knows too well the liberals and the conservatives are like twins when it comes to economics. The truth about the liberals is that right-wing voters prefer Harper and that forces them to try to find support on their left. But they have never been a truly progressive party and won’t become one anytime soon.

It’s time for a change of opposition to one that will truly oppose tiring over-deregulated board rooms oriented economic ideology with ideas that directly benefit the majority of Canadians.

Finalement, nous voici arrivé à l’heure du premier débat pour nos cinq candidats dans Vaudreuil-Soulange. Ce face à face aura lieu au centre communautaire de Hudson et sera modéré par deux journalistes du Hudson Gazette, Jim Duff et Matthew Brett. Je ne sais si les questions du public seront permises mais il est évident qu’il serait intéressant de connaître la stratégie des différents candidats en relation avec ce qui se passe au États-Unis et aux dommages collatéraux qui suivront. Ne me parlez pas d’aide aux jeunes ménages pour une plus grande accession à une maison. Cette attitude se traduit par un accès privilégié vers l’endettement. Ainsi, j’aurai la possibilité de filmer l’intervention et de probablement mettre les moments plus savoureux ici même sur ce blogue au courant de la semaine prochaine.

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Avant de vous laisser pour le weekend, j’aimerais vous diriger vers un site très intéressant (cliquez ici). En effet, c’est un site qui regarde les possibilités de voter pour le parti Vert. Afin de vérifier s’il cela est possible, ils font la démonstration de l’état des choses dans toutes les circonscriptions du Canada basé sur tout le sondage effectué pour le comte de la circonscription. Ce regroupement indépendant fait l’analyse suivante : si dans votre comté, un candidat est assuré de la victoire, pourquoi ne pas voter selon vos convictions, car de toute façon, un vote contraire aura probablement peu d’impact sur le résultat final.

Or, pour Vaudreuil-Soulange, selon ce site, le risque que Michael Fortier passe le fil d’arrivé en premier reste encore possible, à deux semaines des élections. Ainsi, il est encore recommandé de voter de façon stratégique afin d’empêcher Michael Fortier de gagner la circonscription de Vaudreuil-Soulange. Le problème avec la situation potentiellement favorable pour Meili Faille est que certaine personne seraient tentée de laisser tomber, pensant que la victoire Bloquiste est acquise. C’est totalement faux. Une baisse de garde donnerait un avantage à Michael Fortier, qui récolte les votes de citoyens aux allégeances Libérale qui sont tentés par l’apparence de pouvoir et par la perte de confiance envers un Stephane Dion non-convaincant. Il est surprenant de voir, selon les derniers résultats, que madame Brigitte Legault prend place juste avant Michael Fortier. Je constate donc que le vote anglophone traditionnellement Libéral de la région ne se divise pas tant que ça. J’ai peine à croire que Fortier sera capable de remonter cette pente.

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Dans la région, le NPD n’est présent que sur la liste des candidats et dans les fichiers d’Élections Canada.

Hier, Jean-François Paradis, candidat dans Jonquière – Alma, a justifié son absence au débat organisé par l’Association des étudiants du Cégep de Jonquière en disant qu’il s’était présenté par défaut. Originaire du Saguenay il vit à Montréal. Et il travaille “très fort” pour faire élire Thomas Mulclair, transfuge du PLQ et principal porte-parole du Parti au Québec.

Tellement absent de la campagne régionale que le journaliste de CBJ n’a pu parler à personne d’autre que M. Paradis et que François Privé, le candidat du Parti dans Roberval – Lac-Saint-Jean en 2006. Et ce dernier s’est empressé de lancer un appel au vote stratégique pour battre Jean-Pierre Blackburn, le “Ministre le plus visible” du gouvernement Conservateur. Et selon le reporter de la première chaîne, Catherine Forbes, candidate dans Roberval – Lac-Saint-Jean, “fuit les journalistes comme la peste”!

Le PVC lui est encore plus absent. Dans Jonquière il n’a même pas de représentant dans le fichier d’Élections Canada.

Situation idéale d’échange de vote pour les partisans du NPD, du PVC et du PLC du comté qui veulent aider au financement de leur Parti et contribuer à la défaite du Ministre Conservateur. Voir un des sites qui organisent l’échange sur le site Voter pour l’environnement. (Merci Sébastien Roy)

The latest riding-by-riding seat projections here at democraticSPACE include one less seat for the Tories.  That riding is Edmonton-Strathcona.

Below is a chart of how the projection has changed over the course of the past week. The graph displays averages of democraticSPACE’s projected ranges.

Whichever way this goes, it’s almost certainly going to be very close.

Further reading:
Edmonton-Strathcona: a snapshot
Edmonton-Strathcona: the Conservatives
Edmonton-Strathcona: the New Democrats
Edmonton-Strathcona: the Liberals
Edmonton-Strathcona: the Greens