Top 10 Things to Watch as Results Come in…
1. To what extent will strategic voting play a role? While better organized this time, it may only make a difference in a handful of close ridings.
2. Did Danny Williams’ ABC (Anyone But Conservative) campaign work? Combined with the retirement of 2 Conservative incumbents, it looks like Fabian Manning in Avalon is Harper’s only chance to hold a seat on the rock.
3. How is the Conservative vote holding in Atlantic Canada? Polls show a downward trend. Will it be severe enough to topple Peter Mackay? (not unless NDP supporters back Elizabeth May)
4. How are the Conservative doing in rural Québec? Harper needed to win here to get a majority, but the polls say there will no breakthrough. Can Harper even hold the seats he has in Québec? It’s not looking likely, but keep an eye on Québec City for a clue to Conservative fortunes in la belle province.
5. Will the NDP have its much-anticipated breakthrough in Northern Ontario? The odds look good for at least a few pickups here.
6. Can the Liberals hold the vast 905 region? Look for the Conservatives to make in-roads in the outlying areas, but the Liberals should remain strong in Mississauga and more urbanized regions.
7. Can the NDP rebound to previous levels in Saskatchewan and will the Liberal vote collapse? If so, the NDP could pick up a few seats here.
8. Can Linda Duncan break the Conservatives’ stranglehold in Alberta? If yes, then she can thanks the Liberals and Greens. This is a good test of how much strategic voting is playing a role.
9. Can the Liberals survive in B.C.? Facing pressures from both the Conservatives and NDP, the Liberals might end up with only a half-dozen seats west of Winnipeg.
10. Will Harper’s push for arctic sovereignty deliver Nunavut? If so, we could see a 3-way split of the North.

DemocraticSPACE projects a Conservative minority government. But whether it is a strong or weak minority remains to be seen. And the numbers matter, because it will determine who will hold the balance of power since the Conservatives will need support to pass legislation. Our average projection shows C 126, L 92, N 36 , B 52, O 2, but since there is a margin of error built into the polling data, there is actually a fairly wide range of possible outcomes, depending on how the vote breaks within our margins.

Some people might notice that our final projections differ slightly from the final polling numbers. That’s because we make adjustments to our final weighted polling average to account for ballot box shifts (due to differences in GOTV operations, strategic voting, or simply last-minute changes of heart). While there has been much talk of strategic voting this election, the overall impact of strategic voting on the popular vote is typically fairly small (although a few votes in specific ridings can have a disproportionate impact on the number of seats won). While we have taken into account strategic voting in some cases, in most cases, we expect it’s overall impact will be limited to a handful of key ridings.

These ballot box shifts are not as mysterious as we might first think, but in making these adjustments we are relying upon past evidence. While the past is certainly no indicator of the future, we have identified some consistent patterns that tend to repeat themselves. Chief among those patterns is that people in different regions tend to fall back to what they know. In Ontario and Quebec, that typically means a ballot box bump for the Liberals (on the order of 4 points). In Quebec, some of that bump can be attributed to the unpopularity of publicly declaring support for a federalist party. In B.C. and Alberta, the Conservatives tend to see a bump. On the Prairies and Atlantic Canada, the NDP and Liberals benefit, respectively.

Below is a list of the final weighted polling averages and the adjustments we made to them to arrive at our final projections.

Overall Changes from 2006
The Greens have increased their vote the most of any major party (both in absolute terms and in relative terms). Comparing our average projection with the 2006 results, the Conservatives have dropped 2 points (36.3 to 34.3%), the Liberals have dropped 1.7 points (30.3 to 28.6%) and the Bloc has dropped 3.3 points (42.1 to 38.8). Only the NDP and Greens have gained: the NDP by 1.1 points (17.5 to 18.6%) and the Greens by 3.7 points (4.5 to 8.2%). So the Greens have the biggest absolute gain, but a 3.7 point increase represents a whopping 82% increase over 2006, versus a 6% increase for the NDP, a 6% drop for both the Conservatives and Liberals and an 8% drop for the Bloc.

Conservatives
Of the 126-seat average projection for the Conservatives, 108 are solid. There are another 38 ridings where the Conservatives could win (where the projected vote overlaps with another candidate). That means if all the stars line up for the Conservatives (i.e. they win every single riding where they are competitive), the maximum they could win is 146 ridings. That’s highly unlikely, and even still, they remain 9 seats short of a majority. Of the 38 Conservative battlegrounds, the average projection (126) gives them 18, about half (this is by chance, but it does illustrate how our average projection is indeed the highest probability outcome). If they lose every single battleground, which is highly unlikely, they still end up with 108 seats. So in absolute terms, the maximum range for the Conservatives is 108 to 146, but this includes every possible outcome. The probability at either end of the margin is very very low (less than 5% chance). So you can see our average of 126 falls roughly mid-way between the extremes.

Liberals
Of the 92-seat average projection for the Liberals, 74 are solid. There are another 36 ridings where the Liberals could win. That means if all the stars line up for the Liberals (i.e. they win every single riding where they are competitive), the maximum they could win is 110 seats. That’s highly unlikely. Even still, as you can see that’s only 2 seats more than the Conservatives absolute worst-case scenario of 108 seats. The probability of the Liberals winning every single one of their close races and the Conservatives loses every single one of their close races is so small, we are confident in saying the we’re looking at a Conservative minority government. Of the 36 Liberal battlegrounds, the average projection (92) gives them 18, exactly half (and again, this is by chance). So in absolute terms, the maximum range for the Liberals is 74 to 110, but this includes every possible outcome (less than 5% chance). So you can see our average of 92 falls roughly mid-way between the extremes.

NDP
Of the 36-seat average projection for the NDP, 27 are solid. There are another 21 ridings where the NDP could win. So if all the stars line up for the NDP, the maximum they could win is 48 seats. That’s highly unlikely. Of the 27 NDP battlegrounds, the average projection (36) gives them 9, or about 43%. If they win half (the highest probability outcome), they might win another 1 or 2 seats (37-38 total). The maximum range for the NDP is therefore 27 to 48 seats, thus our average of 36 is about half-way between the extremes.

Bloc Quebecois
Of the 52-seat average projection for the Bloc, fully 48 are solid. This reflects the fact that many Bloc seats are in rural Quebec, where they are winning comfortably (except for the Chaudiere, Appalaches and Outaouais regions). There are another 6 ridings where the Bloc could win, making the absolute maximum for the Bloc 54 seats. Of the 6 Bloc battlegrounds, we have them winning 4. A perfect split of the 6 would yield 51 for the Bloc. So the maximum range for the Bloc is 48 to 54 seats, and our average of 52 is roughly in the middle of the extremes.

Greens
We project no seats for the Greens. If the NDP vote coalesces around Elizabeth May in Central Nova (and we project she is in second ahead of the NDP), she might pull off an upset. Other strong Green seats (> 15% of the vote) include Guelph, Vancouver Centre, West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast, and Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound, but we don’t expect they can yet win these ridings, since their support is more evenly-distributed (rather than concentrated into particular ridings) than other parties. That will change as the Greens begin investing heavily in ridings such as these.

I predict the following electoral outcomes in northeastern Ontario tonight:

1 Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing: This will be one of the closest races in the region. Carol Hughes of the NDP by a nose.

2 Nickel Belt: Another close race but the NDP’s Claude Gravelle will take it at the end of a long night.

3 Nipissing-Timiskaming:  An easy win for Anthony Rota with Conservative Sinicrope a relatively distant second.

4 Parry Sound-Muskoka:  The closest race in the country last time should see Conservative Tony Clement waltz to victory.

5 Sault Ste. Marie:  Tony Martin of the NDP appears to be a shoe-in in the Sault although not without a challenge.

6 Sudbury:  Diane Marleau of the Liberals is likely to hold this seat but it will be a lot tighter than an incumbent should have to face.

7 Timmins-James Bay:  An easy win for Charlie Angus who appears to be making this into an NDP stronghold.

Totals:  CPC: 1 seat; LPC: 2 seats; NDP: 4 seats; GPC: 0 seats

Someone over at another blog made the following comments:

All I am asking is that the rest of us … appreciate how those most informed on this critical issue are so conflicted in our allegiances… Let’s hope that in the next government … we begin the process of moving to a new electoral system where people no longer have to make such undemocratic decisions at the ballot box. [my emphasis]

My response.

It is widely believed that all 28 ridings in Alberta will go to the Conservatives, but there are two ridings that might switch to a different couleur.

The first one is Calgary Northeast. This riding, which used to belong to Art Hanger, who is retiring from politics, is the scene of conservative infighting between the official Conservative candidate, Devinder Shory, and an independent conservative contender, Roger Richard. The battle between them has been anything but benign, with injunctions and other legal threats being traded liberally.

This could result in the same split of the vote on the right in this riding that was also instrumental in allowing the Liberals three majority governments under Jean Chrétien when the right was divided into Tories and Reform.

It’s a story as old as time: when two are engaged in battle like this, it is usually a third that comes up the middle and takes the prize – in this case, Liberal candidate Sanam Kang, for example. But the riding may also go to the Green Party candidate or the NDP. The only thing that the two conservative candidates have going for them is that the candidates of the other parties don’t seem too capable or promising, which may limit voters’ choices to Shory and Richard.

The other riding that warrants close attention is Edmonton-Strathcona. Here, the Tory incumbent is facing off against a strong NDP candidate, Linda Duncan. Duncan has enjoyed great momentum, as documented by Liberals4Linda, a blog of Liberals who have decided to endorse and vote for Duncan.

There is no real threat to Conservatives in any of the other 26 ridings, which will be won by the Conservatives by five-digit margins – as usual – including, unfortunately, Calgary West, where the always-absent and abrasive Conservative incumbent should have been removed from office a long time ago. So, in Calgary West, people’s hopes are that Jennifer Pollock can pull it off and restore democracy in the riding at long last.

The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) had an ingenious idea for this election campaign, called Canada Votes: X-Challenge: a townhall-like meeting where voters have a chance to confront candidates of the main political parties. The CBC ran two instalments, one taped in Toronto and the other in Vancouver. The way it works is that members of a studio audience, all of whom state their voting preferences prior to the show, ask candidates questions. The candidates, then, have one minute each to respond, followed by two minutes each for rebuttal – or “free-for-all”, as the show’s host called it.

After each question, the studio audience votes on who they thought answered the question most expertly and truthfully. The results are revealed before the next round starts. At the end, the audience is asked to vote on the final winner based on his or her performance throughout the entire townhall meeting.
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I’ll stay out of the predictions game outside of my province. So since everyone and their Mom is posting on this, lets cut to the chase:

Battleford-Llyodminster:
Winner: Gerry Ritz (CON)

Blackstrap:
Winner: Lynne Yelich (CON)

Cypress Hills-Grassland:
Winner: David Anderson (CON)

Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River:
Winner: Rob Clarke (CON)

Palliser:
Winner: Ray Boughen (CON)

Prince Albert:
Winner: Randy Hoback (CON)

Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre:
Winner: Tom Lukiwski (CON)

Regina-Qu’Appelle:
Winner: Janice Bernier (NDP)

Saskatoon-Humboldt:
Winner: Brad Trost (CON)

Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar:
Winner: Nettie Wiebe (NDP)

Saskatoon-Wanuskewin:
Winner: Maurice Vellacott (CON)

Souris-Moose Mountain:
Winner: Ed Komarnicki (CON)

Wascana:
Winner: Ralph Goodale (LIB)

Yorkton-Melville:
Winner: Garry Breitkreuz (CON)

The squeakers will be in Palliser, Regina-Qu’Appelle, and Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar. Given the strength of the New Democrat candidates in all three ridings (all of whom have been on the hustings since early 2007) and the upswing in NDP support province-wide, I don’t think I’m going out on too far of a limb in calling for victories in 2 of the 3 ridings.

Goodale will easily retain his seat in Wascana, but I just don’t see Orchard pulling it out up in DMCR.

The NDP will finish a strong second in Palliser, Regina-Lumsden-Lake Centre, Saskatoon-Humboldt, Saskatoon-Wanuskewin, Blackstrap, and Prince Albert, putting some distance between themselves and the Liberal candidates.

The Conservative support is rock solid outside of the main urban centres, and while they might see a slight drop in their overall percentages, they will still win handily over their competitors.

The final tally: CON 11, NDP 2, LIB 1.

Nationally, I’ll deal in generalities:
- The Conservatives will win an increased minority government
- The Liberals will win seats numbering in the low 90s
- The New Democrats will break 40 seats increase their seat total (35-40)
- The BQ will take 1 or 2 of the existing Conservative seats in Quebec
- The Green Party will not win a seat
- All the leaders will win their seats, except Elizabeth May who will finish a close 3rd.

What a difference a couple of seats might make!

Greg Morrow’s latest forecast – 126 seats for theHarper Conservatives and 128 for the Liberals and NDP combined — sets up some interesting possibilities. Let’s suppose, as Greg predicdts, that the election gives the Liberals and the NDP more seats than the Tories.

First, Stephen Harper’s failure to significantly improve his party’s position would put his long-term leadership under a cloud. He almost quit in a hissy fit after the 2004 vote. The knives could be out — except that Harper’s kept such a tight grip on his erratic crew that he’s really got no rival at this point.

Second, all the pronouncements of a Liberal wipe-out will have proven vastly overstated. Ninety-two seats isn’t that far off the 95 the Liberals held when Parliament was dissolved. Dion’s performance in the last two weeks of the campaign will have earned him another shot at 24 Sussex.

Third, Jack Layton’s “I’m running for Prime Minister” is taking him down a long road, judging from the miniscule progress he’ll have made (six more seats according to Greg).

What effect will a combined Liberal-NDP edge over the Conservatives have on the next parliament? As I’ve written before, that’s all it took in Ontario in 1985 for David Peterson to oust the front-running Conservatives under Frank Miller.

The Liberals and the NDP also won more seats than the Tories in 2006. But with Paul Martin’s resignation, there was no taste for an accord with the NDP.

Now, with two-thirds of Canadians having voted for a candidate other than a Conservative, Dion and Layton will have a responsibility to consider how their two parties together could best serve Canada in this time of economic crisis.

Both will know full well that even with a free hand, the change in the economy means they’d not be in a position to fulfill their election commitments. This would force Layton to tone down his spending plans, and Dion to reflect on his Green Shift priorities. Factor in these considerations and you have two parties that could work together in a “Crisis Coalition.”

What other choice would Dion have? He cerrtainly wouldn’t want another election right away. How long could he survive by allowing Conservative legislation to go through unchallenged?

In a House of five parties (or four and maybe one Green and a couple of independents), a Liberal-NDP fusion, accord or call it what you want, would still be a minority.

There’s only one issue that greatly separates the Bloc from the Libs and the Dippers — separation. But even Duceppe admits that’s not on the table.

On culture, social justice, Afghanistan, healthcare, economic security — there’s very little difference. Gilles Duceppe wiill have no hunger for another election. He may well have run for the last time.

A Liberal-NDP “Crisis Coalition,” supported by a two-year commitment from the Bloc to let the pair govern, no longer looks as far-fetched as a couple of weeks ago.

What a difference a couple of seats might make!

www.wildaboutwriting.com

I ventured over to the Centre Eugène-Sauvageau in Gatineau today to vote. I was there early, having arrived at about 9h45. The community centre is familiar to me as I worked there during the last provincial election for the advanced voting days. The place wasn’t exactly packed this morning but there was a steady stream of people coming and going. Due to the early hour, the voters were mostly elderly though there were a few young people there. I did my part to help get Raphaël Déry of the Bloc Québécois elected.

As always seems to be the case when I vote, my polling station was the busiest and the only one with a line-up. I didn’t mind waiting, but the person behind me was quite annoyed. She had an appointment at 10h00. Egads!

This made me think of what my girlfriend had told me about earlier. She had voted in the advanced voting in her riding of Ottawa-Orleans. While she was voting, she became moved at how simple, free, and easy it is to vote in Canada. She has a friend in Mexico who had a difficult time voting in the last election, having to wait hours to cast her ballot. I’m sure many of you recall the turmoil of the last Mexican election, with each party claiming victory and the eventual losers holding raucous rallies in the capital. And then there are third world countries where people don’t get to vote, are violently prevented from voting, or where elections are rigged and meaningless.

We are incredibly lucky to live in a country with free and fair elections. It is not only our privilege to vote but our duty. It only takes a few minutes and, even if you have an appointment at 10h00, be happy that your only voting obstacle is a busy schedule. It could be much worse.

Cross-posted to Sovereignty en Anglais.

Apologies for the inconvenience. We had a server outage yesterday, due to high traffic (I guess we’re just too popular!). So we moved the site to a new server and it took several hours for the DNS to migrate to point at the new server (which is why many of you were getting a blank screen for a while).

Update: It seems that the new server is screwing up all of the french accents. I have the tech folks looking into this, so stay tuned…

-Greg