14 October 2008
17 Sep
A lot worse today then they were yesterday and yesterday it wasn’t very good…As has been reported on tonight’s The National, the NDP Candidate, Dana Larsen, was sacked today. If you’re interested in the details, I recommend catching a repeat of the show on Newsworld (or CBC if it’s still early where you live). In short, it involved copious amounts of drugs and a video camera. Frankly, Jack Layton didn’t have much of a choice – smoking a little pot is one thing, this was another entirely. On the one hand, I think that this is a loss for the politics of pot (not something near and dear to my heart, but something worth a good debate). On the other hand, it gives the NDP an opportunity to reassess their goals, strengths and weaknesses in the riding. Should they consider a candidate from North or West Vancouver that may grow support at the south end of the riding, while risking some support in their more traditional strength on the Sunshine Coast? Alternatively, they can choose a candidate with connections to unionists in Squamish in the hope of regaining a more traditional voting bloc. Or, they can stick with the status quo and choose a Sunshine Coast resident in the hopes of consolidating their support in the only part of the riding where they have shown consistent strength in the last two elections.
My feeling is that if the NDP want to stay relevent in the riding, a task which may be difficult anyway given three legitimate (if uninspiring) candidates now with almost a two week head start, they should choose the latter option. This election does not seem to be fertile ground for NDP gains in this riding (they never do, really – the big NDP gains in West Van – Sunshine Coast – STSC during the 2004 election are attributable to new boundaries). The NDP need a strong local (to the Sunshine Coast) candidate to maintain a foothold until next time. Even a strong candidate at this point would be hard pressed to maintain the 20% that the NDP managed in both 2004 and 2006. So, where do these freed votes go?

Conservative Party
Liberal Party
New Democratic Party
Bloc Québécois
Green Party
Christian Heritage
Progressive Canadian
Marijuana Party
Marxist-Leninist Party
Canadian Action Party
Communist Party
Libertarian Party
First Peoples Party
Western Block Party
Animal Alliance Party
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One Response for "What are the chances of an NDP victory in West Van – Sunshine Coast – STSC?"
I just heard on the news about the NDP candidate being dropped in West Van-Sunshine Coast (it was the #2 election TV news item tonight). If they’re dropping their candidate, I think this probably helps the Liberals and Greens more than the Conservatives. A lot could depend on what the wood industry unions say to their members in places like Powell River, Pemberton, Squamish about where to out their vote next.
It’s hard to tell whether Blair Wilson will manage to take his Liberal supporters from last time into the Green camp – the Liberal candidate is the mayor of Squamish so if he’s smart he will punce on this NDP blunder and scoop as many of those blue-collar voters as possible.
*If anyone finds out how these things are turning out, post it here!
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