As one of the flagship ridings across Canada, Van Centre often gets a lot of airplay during elections. Excepting one by-election half a century ago, the Tories and Grits have each ostensibly “owned” it at one time or another. In 1988 Conservative Kim Campbell won the seat by a fistful of votes over the NDP’s Johanna ten Hertog. By 1992 Campbell was Prime Minister; by 1993 she was out on her keester in the Chrétien sweep that brought Hedy Fry to the seat. Campbell wasn’t even in Parliament long enough to earn an MP’s pension and Fry’s still ensconced in the seat 15 years later.

Over the last few elections, however, the Tories have slipped down to third in this densely populated, mixed profile riding. While many associate Van Centre with thousands of condos (and there are lots), there’s also a lot of rental housing in the West End and part of the riding includes False Creek South and butts up against the Downtown East Side. Since 1997 Fry has handily held this seat for the Grits with 3000+ vote margins. In the 2006 election Svend Robinson tried to launch a comeback, finishing second behind Fry. I did some work for the NDP during that election (I’m no longer a member though) and it was shocking how many long-time NDP members refused to support Svend.

For this election there’s a lot of star power on the ballot here. The candidates for the 4 main parties here are:

Hedy Fry (Lib)
Lorne Mayencourt (Con)
Michael Byers (NDP)
Adriane Carr (Green)

Aside from Fry, the Tories have acclaimed Lorne Mayencourt, the polarizing Liberal MLA for the riding. Mayencourt squeaked back into his seat in the last provincial election by less than 100 votes: his absence from the city whilst working on a drug treatment pet project in Northern BC hasn’t endeared him to residents. Nor has his obsession with “aggressive pandhandling–an obsession that earned him a whack in the face from a street person after Mayencourt harassed the poor man for several blocks.

Michael Byers is the sort of “name” candidate the Dippers have been trying to land for years. Rumour has it Byers convinced Jack Layton to give the previously acclaimed candidate the heave-ho. Byers is a political scientist at UBC, well respected internationally, eloquent and passionate.

Adriane Carr was the leader of the BC Greens, but Elizabeth May convinced to become federal Deputy Leader. Carr finished second twice in provincial elections, by far the strongest result for the party in BC provincially. But that was in Powell River-Sunshine Coast–not citified Vancouver Centre.

Some think Byers is the kind of candidate to convinced non-Dion fans among the Grits to give the Dippers enough swing to win the seat. Others see a 3 way leftish vote split handing the seat to Mayencourt. Many others still think Fry’s got the edge.

Stay tuned!