Since the mid-90s, Canada’s Urban Voters have taken refuge in the bosom of the Liberal Party of Canada: a Fiscally Conservative, Socially Liberal outfit that won brownie points from the citizens of cities by offering an intoxicating combination of tax cuts and progressive social policies. With a divided Right and no credible threat on the Left, the Liberals moved into the vacuum at the Centre-Right and dominated for a decade.

Unfortunately for the Party, it moved the entire Canadian Electorate with it, to the point that even the NDP acknowledges that budget deficits are a non-starter. With a rebuilt Right-Wing party and two credible Left-Wing outfits, the Liberals are now effectively in No-Man’s Land. In 2006, only Urban Voters’ fears of a secret Social Conservative agenda prevented the complete destruction of the Liberal Party. And with voters’ increasing familiarity with Stephen Harper, even these fears are being dispelled, albeit slowly.

The race in Vancouver Centre represents a microcosm of the Federal Election. An unpopular MP representing a strong brand (at least locally) in incumbent Liberal Hedy Fry going up against personally popular Lorne Mayencourt of the ‘not-to-be-trusted’ Conservatives. Also bringing strong challenges from the Left are former BC Green Party Head Adrienne Carr and respected UBC professor Michael Byers.

The last election demonstrated the strength of the Liberal brand in Urban Canada as Hedy Fry easily held her seat against a determined Svend Robinson of the NDP.

Vancouver Centre 2006 Election Results

Candidate Party Vote Count
Hedy Fry 25013
Svend Robinson 16374
Tony Fogarassy 11684
Jared Evans 334

Mayencourt obviously believes that he has a realistic shot at winning the seat as he vacated a cushie MLA job to pursue the Federal equivalent. And if he’s right, it could spell a long election-night for the Liberals.

We’ll be following this one closely.