Comments on: The Bloc Québécois is up in the polls http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/09/the-bloc-quebecois-is-up-in-the-polls/ 14 October 2008 Wed, 18 Nov 2009 20:41:11 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 By: Stephane Larochelle http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/09/the-bloc-quebecois-is-up-in-the-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-1604 Stephane Larochelle Thu, 25 Sep 2008 13:12:48 +0000 http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/09/the-bloc-quebecois-is-up-in-the-polls/#comment-1604 Les médias du Québec qui sont presque tous de gauches-nationalistes-souverainistes commencent finalement à récolter le fruit de leurs reportages continuel sur les "gaffes" supposés de Harper et de toujours mettre Duceppe en premier item dans les nouvelles... Un jours ont se réveillera... Les médias du Québec qui sont presque tous de gauches-nationalistes-souverainistes commencent finalement à récolter le fruit de leurs reportages continuel sur les “gaffes” supposés de Harper et de toujours mettre Duceppe en premier item dans les nouvelles…

Un jours ont se réveillera…

]]> By: Shawn in Montreal http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/09/the-bloc-quebecois-is-up-in-the-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-1530 Shawn in Montreal Thu, 25 Sep 2008 02:38:43 +0000 http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/09/the-bloc-quebecois-is-up-in-the-polls/#comment-1530 What a fascinating turn of events in Quebec. After having been written off by so many as a fading force, the BQ seem poised for another massive showing, thanks, largely, to Harper arrogance on cultural issues. I personally don't think it will fade. There's three weeks to go and the other parties will do everything they can to keep it alive. More importantly, the Conservative's aura of inevitability in Quebec is gone. Harper has handed Duceppe an issue around which to defend Quebec from outside threats, which has always been the BQ's strong card. Merci, M.Harper. What a fascinating turn of events in Quebec. After having been written off by so many as a fading force, the BQ seem poised for another massive showing, thanks, largely, to Harper arrogance on cultural issues.

I personally don’t think it will fade. There’s three weeks to go and the other parties will do everything they can to keep it alive.

More importantly, the Conservative’s aura of inevitability in Quebec is gone. Harper has handed Duceppe an issue around which to defend Quebec from outside threats, which has always been the BQ’s strong card.

Merci, M.Harper.

]]> By: Éric Grenier (Bloc Québécois) http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/09/the-bloc-quebecois-is-up-in-the-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-1485 Éric Grenier (Bloc Québécois) Wed, 24 Sep 2008 23:17:10 +0000 http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/09/the-bloc-quebecois-is-up-in-the-polls/#comment-1485 Clarence, Not a stupid question at all! In Hull-Aylmer, the parties break down like this: The Liberals will definitely lose some support, as they have been losing support every election and Stéphane Dion is really disliked in Quebec. There is just no way Proulx could increase his support levels. The Conservatives are not much of a factor. As someone else has written before, Gatineau is more like Montreal than the rest of Quebec. The Conservatives don't have a chance. They will probably maintain their support levels. The NDP are flying high in Quebec, and Pierre Ducasse is a strong candidate. The NDP already did very well in Hull-Aylmer, but there is a limit to how well they can do. The Bloc has had steady support over the last few elections, and if the national campaign maintains a 35%-40% support level, the Bloc in Hull-Aylmer may not lose a lot of votes. So, it comes down to this. The Liberals and the Bloc will lose some votes, and those votes will go to the NDP. What we don't know, and what is hard to predict, is how many votes will go to the NDP and from whom. If the Liberals lose a lot of support but the Bloc remains relatively stable, then the Bloc can win. If both the Liberals and Bloc lose a lot of support to the NDP, then the NDP can win. The NDP needs to double their vote result from last time around to have a shot, while the Bloc merely has to maintain its current support levels. So, put this way, the Bloc has an easier task. Clarence,

Not a stupid question at all! In Hull-Aylmer, the parties break down like this:

The Liberals will definitely lose some support, as they have been losing support every election and Stéphane Dion is really disliked in Quebec. There is just no way Proulx could increase his support levels.

The Conservatives are not much of a factor. As someone else has written before, Gatineau is more like Montreal than the rest of Quebec. The Conservatives don’t have a chance. They will probably maintain their support levels.

The NDP are flying high in Quebec, and Pierre Ducasse is a strong candidate. The NDP already did very well in Hull-Aylmer, but there is a limit to how well they can do.

The Bloc has had steady support over the last few elections, and if the national campaign maintains a 35%-40% support level, the Bloc in Hull-Aylmer may not lose a lot of votes.

So, it comes down to this. The Liberals and the Bloc will lose some votes, and those votes will go to the NDP. What we don’t know, and what is hard to predict, is how many votes will go to the NDP and from whom. If the Liberals lose a lot of support but the Bloc remains relatively stable, then the Bloc can win. If both the Liberals and Bloc lose a lot of support to the NDP, then the NDP can win.

The NDP needs to double their vote result from last time around to have a shot, while the Bloc merely has to maintain its current support levels. So, put this way, the Bloc has an easier task.

]]> By: Clarence Albrecht http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/09/the-bloc-quebecois-is-up-in-the-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-1476 Clarence Albrecht Wed, 24 Sep 2008 22:45:22 +0000 http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/09/the-bloc-quebecois-is-up-in-the-polls/#comment-1476 I hope you don't mind stupid questions, because I expect this is one. I think your argument for Hull is that, because the Liberals and Conservative support will drop, with much of it passing to the Boc, and very little passing to the NDP, the Bloc still has a good chance to win? Your humble idiot, Clarence I hope you don’t mind stupid questions, because I expect this is one.

I think your argument for Hull is that, because the Liberals and Conservative support will drop, with much of it passing to the Boc, and very little passing to the NDP, the Bloc still has a good chance to win?

Your humble idiot,

Clarence

]]> By: Paul Morphy http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/09/the-bloc-quebecois-is-up-in-the-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-1474 Paul Morphy Wed, 24 Sep 2008 22:40:32 +0000 http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/09/the-bloc-quebecois-is-up-in-the-polls/#comment-1474 Nanos' margin of error is 6.5%, but that's lessened by the fact they have a daily poll, so you can gauge the trend and immeditely catch any discrepancy. Nanos’ margin of error is 6.5%, but that’s lessened by the fact they have a daily poll, so you can gauge the trend and immeditely catch any discrepancy.

]]> By: southernontarioan http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/09/the-bloc-quebecois-is-up-in-the-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-1471 southernontarioan Wed, 24 Sep 2008 22:07:57 +0000 http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/09/the-bloc-quebecois-is-up-in-the-polls/#comment-1471 The Nanos poll has a margin of error of something like +-7% so be wary. Although another poll by Ekos showed them at 37% +-3.5% and one by Decima showed them at 37% +-6%. So while its clear that the BQ has managed to attract some support in recent days, it remains to be seen if it will last or will fade as the issue of arts funding decreases in importance. Moreover, with the NDP poll numbers increasing in Quebec, Layton could be the wild card in this race. The Nanos poll has a margin of error of something like +-7% so be wary. Although another poll by Ekos showed them at 37% +-3.5% and one by Decima showed them at 37% +-6%.

So while its clear that the BQ has managed to attract some support in recent days, it remains to be seen if it will last or will fade as the issue of arts funding decreases in importance. Moreover, with the NDP poll numbers increasing in Quebec, Layton could be the wild card in this race.

]]> By: Éric Grenier (Bloc Québécois) http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/09/the-bloc-quebecois-is-up-in-the-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-1468 Éric Grenier (Bloc Québécois) Wed, 24 Sep 2008 21:39:24 +0000 http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/09/the-bloc-quebecois-is-up-in-the-polls/#comment-1468 The Bloc formed the Opposition in 1993 with the Liberals in a majority. The Bloc formed the Opposition in 1993 with the Liberals in a majority.

]]> By: David http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/09/the-bloc-quebecois-is-up-in-the-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-1466 David Wed, 24 Sep 2008 21:29:54 +0000 http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/09/the-bloc-quebecois-is-up-in-the-polls/#comment-1466 Wasn't it the case in 1993? Wasn’t it the case in 1993?

]]> By: Nick J Boragina http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/09/the-bloc-quebecois-is-up-in-the-polls/comment-page-1/#comment-1459 Nick J Boragina Wed, 24 Sep 2008 20:52:58 +0000 http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2008/2008/09/the-bloc-quebecois-is-up-in-the-polls/#comment-1459 The Liberals are the reason, they are dropping like a stone. I'm curious how a Bloc official opposition would be against a Conservative government. The Liberals are the reason, they are dropping like a stone. I’m curious how a Bloc official opposition would be against a Conservative government.

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