and the Liberals become an endangered species? First, let me apologize for not posting recently, I have been out of town for the last few days. But, good on you readers for keeping the discussion going in the comments section. I’m just going to post a few random thoughts (nothing substantive, but hey that’s nothing new from me) as campaigns and issues are now coming into focus.

West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast – Sea to Sky:

Everybody but John Weston seems to be fading quietly into the night. By no means is he setting the world ablaze with his campaign, but he seems to be quietly running a smooth campaign with a solid ground presence in both West Van and North Van, bad news for the Libs. The Liberals have been virtually invisible, particularly in West and North Van where they have to win big to be competitive in the riding. That’s not to say that Ian Sutherland isn’t a competent candidate, he is. Nor is it to say that he can’t make in roads in Squamish, he can. It’s just that he needs to maintain the party’s traditional areas of strength and that doesn’t seem to be too likely. The NDP have recovered from the Dana Larsen experiment with a solid (on paper) local Sunshine Coast candidate that may be able to stop any vote bleed that may have been perceived prior to the election. With the NDP seemingly on an upswing in the province maybe they’ll even be able to pick up a few more votes than last time. The Greens, well after an interesting first few days, they have managed to fall into their regular role. I’m convinced Wilson will pull a good number for the party (up to 20% if the Greens can regain some momentum in the debates). On the whole, minus a massive shift, you can count this a Tory pickup.

North Vancouver:

I’m of the mind that you just can’t count out Liberal incumbent Don Bell. It’s been said before and is worth repeating, people vote as much for Don Bell as they vote for the Liberal brand. Consequently, I would expect a competitive Liberal result. It’ll be interesting to see what impact, if any, the arts funding debate has in this riding, as the local movie industry has played a major role in Bell’s two victories. Nonetheless, I would expect that this too ought to be considered a Conservative pickup on voting day – just don’t be too surprised if it’s called late. On a side note, the local NDP have been putting up “Jack Layton and the NDP team” signs, in place of those for the local candidate (admittedly the candidate does have a few of his own). Given that the candidate, Michael Charrois, is relatively unknown outside of the Arts community, this may be beneficial in growing party support – or it may marginalize the candidate. Either way, Charrois will ensure that Arts funding continues to be discussed (I’m not generalizing here at all, really…).

Van Centre:

This is a great fight. I suspect that Adrianne Carr will probably lose momentum, as her party has, the closer we get to election day. To be clear, I’m not critical of her or her campaign. In fact, I think that she’s an excellent surrogate for Elizabeth May in the Lower mainland. It’s just that the reality of running against three star quality candidates is bound to reinforce traditional voting patterns in the riding. Though some commentators think that the riding is ripe for a Conservative pickup, I think that it’s much more likely to swing NDP, if it swings at all – after all, Hedy Fry seems to be pretty good at winning elections. The NDP has a lot less ground to make up to catch then the Conservatives do and Kennedy Stewart, the last academic to run for the NDP in this riding came close to winning in 2004. Undoubtedly, this is my favourite race in BC. Do the debates about the safe-injection site, arts funding and being part of the government that implemented the provincial Carbon Tax hurt the Conservative candidate?

Van South:

If the Liberals are holding a seat in BC, it’s this one. Full stop.

Saanich – Gulf Islands:

Gary Lunn is in trouble. For two elections in a row, this has been a 3.5 party race. With no NDP candidate, this riding looks to be completely up in the air. Simply put, the party that gets the NDP vote wins. Advantage Greens? After all, the NDP (and Liberal candidate) had strong Green connections and there was talk (I don’t know how serious) of running as a united front against the Conservatives. This scenario, all of a sudden, becomes a lot more realistic. This is also the third election in a row for the Green Candidate, Andrew Lewis. Lunn, of course, can still win as NDP supporters outside of the Lower Mainland are just as likely to vote Conservative as any other party. There’s also a reasonable opportunity for this to be a Liberal pickup. What a wacky province we live in

and finally – Edmonton – Strathcona:

After spending the last three days in the riding, it’s still kind of weird to see as much support and hear as much talk about a federal NDP candidate in Alberta…