Paul Zed held his annual corn boil on Sunday, and with close to a thousand visitors (according to the local paper) showing up at Lily Lake despite overcast weather, the riding of Saint John looks like its his to lose.

While NB’s oldest city has a long Tory tradition (see Elsie Wayne), Zed has been successful in playing up urban issues (poverty, housing, the environment) and slowly turning Saint John red. He’s been helped by a weak NDP and Greens - this will likely be a 2 horse race, with progressive voters lining up behind Zed.

Of the three urban seats in NB, Saint John and Moncton are those most likely to remain Liberal (In Fredericton, a much closer contest is expected, due to a compelling Green candidate, and the departure of Andy Scott). Of NB’s ten seats, 2 – Fredericton, and Madawaska – are truly competitive.