The 2008 campaign in Ottawa-Orleans is off to a  slow start. This is a traditional Liberal riding taken by Conservative Royal Gallipeau in 2006. If Harper is to strengthen his minority or secure a majority, he needs to hang on to this and other ridings the Conservatives  took from the Liberals in the last election. Conversely, if the Liberals are to block a Conservative majority they need to win back this and similar ridings.

Royal Gallipeau is hoping to secure back-to-back wins for the Cons. Marc Godbout, the Liberal candidate, is hoping to regain the riding he held for a couple of years prior to Gallipeau’s upset. His campaign is complicated by infighting among local Liberals over the past three years.

The riding was represented for many years by Liberal Eugene Bellemare. Some Liberals loyal to the Bellemare legacy feel that Godbout stole the nomination in 2005 by packing the meeting with a new group of “instant” Liberals. The Liberal nomination for the current election was hotly contested with several prominent Liberals running against Godbout, including Eugene Bellemare’s son, Michel Bellemare, currently a member of Ottawa City Council. But the anti-Godbout vote was split among several candidates, allowing Godbout to regain the nomination. The question is: will the various Liberal factions unite behind Godbout? If they do, then Godbout should have an excellent chance to regain the riding he once held. If not, Gallipeau may hold on.

There are other wild cards. Former NDP candidate Mark Leahy and Green Party candidate Dan Biocchi have now joined forces with the Liberals. Leahy, who is young and charismatic, took a substantial number of votes last time, increasing the traditional NDP share significantly. This worked in Gallipeau’s favour. The reason Marc Godbout lost was that the NDP ran an extremely strong candidate in Marc Leahy (15% of the vote). Will the disaffected Liberals who thought the Libs should be punished for the sponsorship scandal return to the Liberal fold this time?